MUSINGS FROM THE DISCH
Horns went from darkness to light back to overcast, much like the day of the eclipse.
After beating Kansas State to surge up the Big 12 standings into 2nd place, they currently find themselves in 6th place, after losing a home series to (gulp) BYU. The lack of consistency with this team is beginning to create some hard truths for fans, administrators, and eventually the NCAA selection committee to handle.
Looking back at the questions that I posed last week, it feels like some of them have been answered and some of them remain to be watched over the course of the season.
Lastly, as some are aware or may have heard rumors at this point, RHP Grant Fontenot is in fact not with the program. Not all of the details have been released or acknowledged yet, but I have been told that there has been some ongoing dialogue and it ended with Fontenot no longer remaining with the team. Grant is a kid that has been through a lot and is personally a great kid, but sometimes, things do not work out. This does not put everything on him, as it certainly isn't, but this is the reality we live in today.
On a much brighter note - good for Henley!
USELESS STAT(S) OF THE DAY
Hitting Average: Jared Thomas (2nd) and Jalin Flores (6th)
Slugging%: Jalin Flores (1st), Max Belyeu (2nd), and Jared Thomas (3rd)
On-Base%: Jared Thomas (5th)
OPS: Jalin Flores (2nd), Max Belyeu (3rd), and Jared Thomas (5th)
Hits: Jared Thomas (2nd) and Peyton Powell (9th)
RBI: Jalin Flores (6th) and Peyton Powell (8th)
Home Runs: Jalin Flores (1st) and Max Belyeu (3rd)
MID-WEEK PREVIEW
Opponent: Texas State Bobcats (16-16, 5-7 Sun Belt)
Dates: Tuesday April 9th & Wednesday April 10th
Times: 6pm & 7pm
Where: Tues at San Marcos, Wed in Austin
TV: Tues on ESPN+, Wed on LHN
History:
Prediction:
Texas splits the two games, going 1-1
Season Prediction Update:
On the season, I am 22-10 with my predictions
Rank: n/a
RPI: 113
SOS: 72
Quadrant Records (RPI):
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 1-4
Q3: 7-7
Q4: 6-1
Home: 9-9
Away: 4-4
Neutral: 3-3
Common Opponents:
Stats Comparison:
Pitching Matchups: (will notate matchups once announced):
Texas State Offensive Leaders:
Texas State Bullpen Leaders:
BIG 12 RECAP
BIG 12 CONFERENCE STANDINGS (conference record)
BIG 12 RPI / SOS
At the half-way point, the RPI trajectory is very troubling. If they tournament were to start today, the Horns would not make it in. Horns do still have series against Houston, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, UCF, and Kansas. Four of those teams are currently above the Horns in RPI. Texas has also beat two of the other two teams above them (Kansas State and Texas Tech).
TOP 25 RANKINGS
Reminder
As a reminder, the Longhorns are winding down the NIL fiscal year for baseball and the Longhorns are going to drastically ramp up funding efforts for Texas Baseball as it enters the SEC in 2025.
A monthly donation of $20-$100 a month makes a big difference in baseball. This is not football that has massive contracts and full scholarships for all the players. If you currently support a different sport through Texas One Fund, consider adding even $5-$10 for baseball.
If you have any questions, reach out to @AgaveHorn
Horns went from darkness to light back to overcast, much like the day of the eclipse.
After beating Kansas State to surge up the Big 12 standings into 2nd place, they currently find themselves in 6th place, after losing a home series to (gulp) BYU. The lack of consistency with this team is beginning to create some hard truths for fans, administrators, and eventually the NCAA selection committee to handle.
- Can the Horns offense be consistent enough to overcome the existing pitching challenges?
- Can the Horns pitching staff stand up to the rigors of the rest of the regular season at the current level?
- Is the Longhorn program going in the right direction, in light of the impending move to SEC play in 2025?
- Have the Horns shown enough and will they show enough to get selected to participate in the NCAA tournament?
Looking back at the questions that I posed last week, it feels like some of them have been answered and some of them remain to be watched over the course of the season.
- Can Lebarron Johnson Jr be more consistent?
- This continues to remain a massive question. Between his inability to throw strikes and teams taking a very patient approach, it has not been good
- Can Ace Whitehead continue to be the game two starter for the Horns?
- If Whitehead can go 5 IP each game, giving up an average of 3 runs, the Horns will take that every time
- Where does the Horns bullpen go from here?
- The number of trusted arms is shrinking by the day. Boehm, Duplantier, and Tumis are all solid
- The Horns need to get more out of Lummus, Hamilton, Hurley, Shaw, Tole, Howard, and Selvig
- Is Andre Duplantier finally the guy or at least 85% of the guy that the Horns thought they had prior to surgery two years back?
- Dre continues to be solid performer for the Horns
- Who will be the every day catcher?
- Feels like Galvan has won the competition and is not looking back
- Will the Horns get anything more from Porter Brown or Jack O'Dowd?
- Porter Brown - he continues to be consistent...problem is it is consistently not greaty, leaving a ton of guys on base when in scoring position
- Jack O'Dowd - outside of spot play as DH, I don't believe we will see Jack back at 2B, barring injury
- Will the Fielding continue to improve?
- Yes. Fielding has continued to improve and be more steady
Lastly, as some are aware or may have heard rumors at this point, RHP Grant Fontenot is in fact not with the program. Not all of the details have been released or acknowledged yet, but I have been told that there has been some ongoing dialogue and it ended with Fontenot no longer remaining with the team. Grant is a kid that has been through a lot and is personally a great kid, but sometimes, things do not work out. This does not put everything on him, as it certainly isn't, but this is the reality we live in today.
On a much brighter note - good for Henley!
USELESS STAT(S) OF THE DAY
- Batting - Horns rank 4th in the Big 12
- PItching - Horns rank 4th in the Big 12
- Fielding - Horns rank 4th in the Big 12
Hitting Average: Jared Thomas (2nd) and Jalin Flores (6th)
Slugging%: Jalin Flores (1st), Max Belyeu (2nd), and Jared Thomas (3rd)
On-Base%: Jared Thomas (5th)
OPS: Jalin Flores (2nd), Max Belyeu (3rd), and Jared Thomas (5th)
Hits: Jared Thomas (2nd) and Peyton Powell (9th)
RBI: Jalin Flores (6th) and Peyton Powell (8th)
Home Runs: Jalin Flores (1st) and Max Belyeu (3rd)
MID-WEEK PREVIEW
Opponent: Texas State Bobcats (16-16, 5-7 Sun Belt)
Dates: Tuesday April 9th & Wednesday April 10th
Times: 6pm & 7pm
Where: Tues at San Marcos, Wed in Austin
TV: Tues on ESPN+, Wed on LHN
History:
- First Meeting: 1986
- Horns have a 55-14 all-time series lead
- Home: 44-11
- Away: 8-2
- Neutral: 2-1
- Horns did lose the game earlier in the season down in Houston by a score of 11-10 in a back and forth game, decided in the 9th inning
- Last season, the Horns and Bobcats split the two meetings last season with the Horns winning in San Marcos and then losing in Austin
Prediction:
Texas splits the two games, going 1-1
Season Prediction Update:
On the season, I am 22-10 with my predictions
Rank: n/a
RPI: 113
SOS: 72
Quadrant Records (RPI):
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 1-4
Q3: 7-7
Q4: 6-1
Home: 9-9
Away: 4-4
Neutral: 3-3
Common Opponents:
- at TCU - Loss 5-6
- v. Kansas - Loss 4-7
- v. Houston - Win 8-7
- v. LSU - Loss 5-7
- v. Texas A&M-Corpus - Loss 5-6
- v. Sam Houston - Swept 0-3
- v. Houston Christian - Win 12-6
- v. UT-RGC - Win 12-6
- v. Texas A&M - Loss - 2-12
Stats Comparison:
| Stat | Texas | Texas State |
| Batting Average | .300 | .272 |
| OPS | .931 | .864 |
| Doubles | 80 | 57 |
| Triples | 5 | 6 |
| Home Runs | 62 | 33 |
| RBI | 231 | 204 |
| SLG% | .545 | .431 |
| Walks | 134 | 173 |
| Strikeouts | 283 | 213 |
| OB% | .386 | .390 |
| Stolen Bases | 24-29 | 24-30 |
| ERA | 4.59 | 5.23 |
| WHIP | 1.46 | 1.53 |
| Bases on Balls | 125 | 144 |
| Wild Pitches | 27 | 37 |
| B/Avg | .268 | .267 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 38 | 33 |
| Errors | 29 | 30 |
| Fielding% | .976 | .974 |
Pitching Matchups: (will notate matchups once announced):
- TUESDAY - Texas LHP Chase Lummus (0-0, 2.00) vs. Texas State RHP Tony Robie (3-2, 6.12)
- WEDNESDAY - Texas TBA v. Texas State TBA
Texas State Offensive Leaders:
- Kameron Weil (.357 avg, .864 OPS, .393 SLG%, .471 OB%, 5-7 SB)
- Daylan Pena (.337 avg, 1.079 OPS, 6 HR, .635 SLG%, .444 OB%, 1-1 SB)
- Aaron Lugo (.315 avg, 1.013 OPS, 8 HR, .602 SLG%, .411 OB%, 4-4 SB)
- Ryne Farber (.359 avg, 1.026 OPS, 2 HR, .526 SLG%, .500 OB%, 3-5 SB)
Texas State Bullpen Leaders:
- Jonathan Martinez (1-2, 2.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19.2 IP)
- Rhett McCaffety (1-0, 3.55 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12.2 IP)
- Matthew Tippie (2-1, 4.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 17.2 IP)
- Cameron Bush (0-0, 5.49 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 19.2 IP)
- Otto Wofford (2-0, 5.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 12.1 IP)
- Peyton Zabel (2-1, 5.89 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 18.1 IP)
BIG 12 RECAP
- Baylor (13-18, 5-7)- Bears battered Incarnate Word in the first two games and then got blasted in game three
- Next Up: Tuesday at Dallas Baptist and then a weekend series at BYU
- BYU (13-15, 6-9)- Cougars came to Austin and won the series, beating LBJ on Thursday and then winning a Saturday series finale
- Next Up: Tuesday at Utah and then host Baylor for a three game series
- Cincinnati (19-13, 7-5)- Bearcats swept TCU, including a 13-2 run rule in the series finale, which occurred on "Beer Day"
- Next Up: Bearcats take on Xavier on Tuesday and then travel to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State
- Houston (16-15, 4-11)- Cougars struggles continue as they got swept by Texas Tech in Lubbock
- Next Up: Cougars travel to Huntsville to take on Sam Houston and then host Texas for a weekend series
- Kansas (15-14, 7-8)- Jayhawks got swept at home by West Virginia
- Next Up: Jayhawks host Nebraska and then step out of conference for a weekend series against Pacific
- Kansas State (20-10, 7-5)- Wildcats lost the series to the Knights of UCF down in Orlando for back to back series losses
- Next Up: Wildcats host Wichita State on Wednesday and then travel to Norman for a weekend series against Oklahoma
- Oklahoma (17-14, 8-4)- Sooners lose their top spot in the Big 12 after losing the series to arch rivals Oklahoma State
- Next Up: Sooners take on UT-Arlington at home on Tuesday and then host Kansas State for a weekend series
- Oklahoma State (21-11, 7-5)- Cowboys seem to be turning things around after early season struggles, including a huge series win over rivals Oklahoma
- Next Up: Cowboys travel to Wichita State on Tuesday and then host Cincinnati for a weekend series
- TCU (20-11, 5-10)- Horn Frogs continue to confound as they get swept by Cincinnati as their conference season continues to fall apart
- Next Up: TCU cancelled their Tues/Wed matchups against UT-RGV and will now just host Texas Tech this weekend
- Texas (19-13, 7-5)- Horns inexplicably drop a series to BYU as they continue to suffer from lack of consistency in pitching and hitting
- Next Up: Horns travel to San Marcos to take on Texas State on Tuesday, then play Texas State in Austin on Wednesday, then travel to Houston for a weekend series
- Texas Tech (24-9, 8-7)- Red Raiders have stepped it up this past week, taking two games against Stanford and then sweeping Houston in a series featuring little pitching
- Next Up: Red Raiders travel to Abilene Christian on Tuesday and then travel to Fort Worth to take on an ailing TCU squad
- UCF (21-8, 8-7)- Knights continue to stay hot and confound expectations, taking the series against Kansas State this weekend
- Next Up: Knights travel to take on Stetson on Tuesday and then travel to West Virginia for a weekend series
- West Virginia (19-12, 8-4)- Mountaineers take over the top spot in the Big 12 standings after sweeping Kansas
- Next Up: Mountaineers travel to Marshall for a Wednesday game and then host UCF for a big weekend series
BIG 12 CONFERENCE STANDINGS (conference record)
- West Virginia (8-4)
- Oklahoma (8-4)
- Kansas State (7-5)
- Oklahoma State (7-5)
- Cincinnati (7-5)
- Texas (7-5)
- Texas Tech (8-7)
- UCF (8-7)
- Kansas (7-8)
- Baylor (5-7)
- BYU (6-9)
- TCU (5-10)
- Houston (4-11)
BIG 12 RPI / SOS
- UCF: 7 / 4
- Oklahoma: 24 / 1
- Oklahoma State: 26 / 35
- Kansas State: 27 / 38
- Texas Tech: 37 / 80
- TCU: 40 / 58
- West Virginia: 43 / 60
- Texas: 63 / 39
- Cincinnati: 80 / 107
- Kansas: 84 / 48
- Houston: 86 / 46
- BYU: 107 / 76
- Baylor: 138 / 47
At the half-way point, the RPI trajectory is very troubling. If they tournament were to start today, the Horns would not make it in. Horns do still have series against Houston, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, UCF, and Kansas. Four of those teams are currently above the Horns in RPI. Texas has also beat two of the other two teams above them (Kansas State and Texas Tech).
TOP 25 RANKINGS
Reminder
As a reminder, the Longhorns are winding down the NIL fiscal year for baseball and the Longhorns are going to drastically ramp up funding efforts for Texas Baseball as it enters the SEC in 2025.
A monthly donation of $20-$100 a month makes a big difference in baseball. This is not football that has massive contracts and full scholarships for all the players. If you currently support a different sport through Texas One Fund, consider adding even $5-$10 for baseball.
If you have any questions, reach out to @AgaveHorn
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