The End is Near! Everyone knows that the end of the season is close, but the true question is how soon does it end? Can Texas continue to build some momentum over the weekend as they head to Arlington to the Big 12 Tournament to likely face a familiar foe (Oklahoma) in a familiar setting (Arlington)? The Horns with a sweep of Kansas and two wins in Arlington will be very much in the hosting conversation. Make no mistake about it though, the margins are extremely thin after the sweep at the hands of Oklahoma State. The fact that some other schools like Florida State, Vanderbilt and even Texas Tech has really put the crunch on the Horns chances, BUT they are not dead...yet. TCU and Texas Tech have RPI issues, but as champions or co-champions of the Big 12, the committee who has leaned on RPI heavily in the past may make an exception. Oklahoma State is sitting out there as well. The hosting picture for the Big 12 likely does not resolve itself until after the Big 12 Tourney as there are too many variables and RPI spots to be had.
In case you were curious where Texas is currently projected, it is the #2 Seed in the #13 overall seed Arkansas Regional with SE Missouri State and Louisiana Tech. That is a very tough regional as SEMO is no push over and LaTech has a strong core team as well. The Arkansas regional is paired up with the Coral Gables regional where the #4 national seed Miami Hurricanes are slated to host Florida A&M, Florida and Rutgers.
At the end of the day, all that matters is that Texas continues to stack wins. Lose a game against Kansas and they are a 2 seed. Go 1-2 or even worse 0-2 in the Big 12 Tourney and Texas is a 2 seed. That is what is on the line. WIN WIN WIN!
TEXAS (36-17, 11-10) vs. KANSAS (20-32, 4-17)
May 19-21, 2022
Where: UFCU Disch-Falk Field
Time: Thursday at 6:30 p.m.; Friday at 6:30 p.m.; Saturday at 2:30 p.m.
TV: Longhorn Network
Radio: 104.9 FM The Horn/1260 AM
All-time series: Texas leads, 55-29
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
THURSDAY–Texas LHP Pete Hansen (8-1, 3.08) vs. Kansas LHP Daniel Hegarty (6-5, 4.43)
FRIDAY–Texas LHP Lucas Gordon (5-1, 2.66) vs. Kansas RHP Cole Larsen (1-8, 8.26)
SATURDAY–Texas TBA vs. Kansas RHP Ryan Vanderhei (5-6, 6.56)
THE MATCHUPS—Texas hosts Kansas in the final series of the regular season ahead of the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship. The Jayhawks make their first trip to UFCU Disch-Falk Field since the 2018 season when the Longhorns swept the series. Last season, Texas swept the series over Kansas in Lawrence.
A LOOK AT THE LONGHORNS—The Longhorns head into the final series of the regular season after a 9-2 midweek win over Sam Houston. Texas leads the Big 12 with a .319 team batting average and a program record 98 homers, while the pitching staff is first in the league with a 4.20 ERA. The Longhorns are also the league’s top fielding team with a .986 fielding percentage.
History:
Texas is 30-10 at home against Kansas and they swept KU on the road last year. Kansas this year is 2-12 against Q1 teams and is 8-17 in away games where as Texas has been outstanding at home.
Pitching Matchups:
The pitching rotation by Kansas has been really bad, like really really bad. They have an ERA approaching 8 and have been battered about by teams. Outside of the starting pitches named above, look for the following guys to try and eat up innings.
Hitting Matchups:
Kansas does have one of the best hitters in the Big 12 in Maui Ahuna and they do have some solid pieces. Here are the top guys to look out for this weekend.
Texas v. Kansas Stats:
RPI 17 v 158
SOS 29 v 77
BA .319 v .271
OPS
OB% .415 v .354
SLG% .561 v .427
Doubles 130 v 97
HRs 98 v 53
Walks 266 v 53
SBs 44/58 v 52/69
ERA 4.20 v 7.81
Op BA .237 v .301
Errors 28 v 53
Texas v. Kansas Predictions:
@AaronLittleOB - Sweep. Kansas is bad! Yeah, the Texas bullpen is bad, but Kansas is worse.
@ZachattheDisch - BROOOOOOMS. I have had this marked down as a sweep since the season started and nothing has made me change that. Yes, Texas has had some pitching woes and may be piecing together a Sunday pitching rotation, but this is the best hitting team KU will have faced and it is in Austin, while KU is terrible on the road.
Big 12 Standings:
Weekend Conference Series:
K-State @ West Virginia
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma State @ Baylor
Kansas @ Texas
TCU v. Santa Clara
Big 12 Scenarios and facts (This is not every single scenario but here are some of the major ones) by @AaronLittleOB
Best game one matchups for Texas in Arlington (@AaronLittleOB):
The most likely scenario is Texas vs OU at 9 AM on Wednesday, May 25th. The matchup here would be Jake Bennett (5-3, 3.66) vs Pete Hansen (8-1, 3.08) when these two matched up in Arlington back in April, here were the lines.
Bennett - 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Hansen - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 2 BB
The other team the Horns may see in game one would be West Virginia. This would mean a likely rematch between Pete Hansen and Jacob Watters. Watters (2-6, 5.85) has struggled this year but did have his best game against Texas. Watters went 6.1 IP, allowing 4 ER, while striking out 15. I would not expect Watters to be on the level that he was in that series opener. He was executing pitches at such a high level, it will be very difficult to do that again. Hansen pitched well against the Mountaineers, 8.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB.
The X-factor in a matchup vs WVU would be Trey Braithwaite. The WVU closer pitched 4.1 innings of relief, yielding only 1 ER in the finale of that series against Texas. I am of the belief that a matchup vs WVU would be better for the Horns. OU has been hitting the ball extremely well lately and could be an issue for Pete Hansen and the UT bullpen.
Golden Spikes Update (@AaronLittleOB):
Let’s take a look at the numbers Ivan has put up compared to the guys most likely to challenge him for the award. (All numbers are as of Tuesday morning)
Ivan Melendez (National ranking)
Kevin Pirada, Georgia Tech C (National ranking)
Cooper Hjerpe, Oregon State P (National ranking)
Other names to watch
In case you were curious where Texas is currently projected, it is the #2 Seed in the #13 overall seed Arkansas Regional with SE Missouri State and Louisiana Tech. That is a very tough regional as SEMO is no push over and LaTech has a strong core team as well. The Arkansas regional is paired up with the Coral Gables regional where the #4 national seed Miami Hurricanes are slated to host Florida A&M, Florida and Rutgers.
At the end of the day, all that matters is that Texas continues to stack wins. Lose a game against Kansas and they are a 2 seed. Go 1-2 or even worse 0-2 in the Big 12 Tourney and Texas is a 2 seed. That is what is on the line. WIN WIN WIN!
TEXAS (36-17, 11-10) vs. KANSAS (20-32, 4-17)
May 19-21, 2022
Where: UFCU Disch-Falk Field
Time: Thursday at 6:30 p.m.; Friday at 6:30 p.m.; Saturday at 2:30 p.m.
TV: Longhorn Network
Radio: 104.9 FM The Horn/1260 AM
All-time series: Texas leads, 55-29
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
THURSDAY–Texas LHP Pete Hansen (8-1, 3.08) vs. Kansas LHP Daniel Hegarty (6-5, 4.43)
FRIDAY–Texas LHP Lucas Gordon (5-1, 2.66) vs. Kansas RHP Cole Larsen (1-8, 8.26)
SATURDAY–Texas TBA vs. Kansas RHP Ryan Vanderhei (5-6, 6.56)
THE MATCHUPS—Texas hosts Kansas in the final series of the regular season ahead of the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship. The Jayhawks make their first trip to UFCU Disch-Falk Field since the 2018 season when the Longhorns swept the series. Last season, Texas swept the series over Kansas in Lawrence.
A LOOK AT THE LONGHORNS—The Longhorns head into the final series of the regular season after a 9-2 midweek win over Sam Houston. Texas leads the Big 12 with a .319 team batting average and a program record 98 homers, while the pitching staff is first in the league with a 4.20 ERA. The Longhorns are also the league’s top fielding team with a .986 fielding percentage.
History:
Texas is 30-10 at home against Kansas and they swept KU on the road last year. Kansas this year is 2-12 against Q1 teams and is 8-17 in away games where as Texas has been outstanding at home.
Pitching Matchups:
The pitching rotation by Kansas has been really bad, like really really bad. They have an ERA approaching 8 and have been battered about by teams. Outside of the starting pitches named above, look for the following guys to try and eat up innings.
- Dougan (6.45, 1.64, 1-2, 37.2 IP, 22 BB, 44 K)
- Hewlett (8.83, 1.78, 2-1, 34.2 IP, 14 BB, 23 K)
- Ulane (10.13, 2.75, 0-0, 5 saves) - closer
Hitting Matchups:
Kansas does have one of the best hitters in the Big 12 in Maui Ahuna and they do have some solid pieces. Here are the top guys to look out for this weekend.
- Maui Ahuna (.397 / 1.102 OPS / 75 H / 7 HR)
- Nolan Metcalf (.322 / .912 / 7 HR)
- Caleb Upshaw (.309 / .961 / 12 HR)
Texas v. Kansas Stats:
RPI 17 v 158
SOS 29 v 77
BA .319 v .271
OPS
OB% .415 v .354
SLG% .561 v .427
Doubles 130 v 97
HRs 98 v 53
Walks 266 v 53
SBs 44/58 v 52/69
ERA 4.20 v 7.81
Op BA .237 v .301
Errors 28 v 53
Texas v. Kansas Predictions:
@AaronLittleOB - Sweep. Kansas is bad! Yeah, the Texas bullpen is bad, but Kansas is worse.
@ZachattheDisch - BROOOOOOMS. I have had this marked down as a sweep since the season started and nothing has made me change that. Yes, Texas has had some pitching woes and may be piecing together a Sunday pitching rotation, but this is the best hitting team KU will have faced and it is in Austin, while KU is terrible on the road.
Big 12 Standings:
- TCU 16-8
- Texas Tech 14-7
- OSU 13-8
- OU 13-8
- Texas 11-10
- WVU 11-10
- KSU 8-13
- Baylor 6-15
- Kansas 4-17
Weekend Conference Series:
K-State @ West Virginia
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma State @ Baylor
Kansas @ Texas
TCU v. Santa Clara
Big 12 Scenarios and facts (This is not every single scenario but here are some of the major ones) by @AaronLittleOB
- Texas Tech wins the conference with a sweep of OU.
- TCU holds the head to head against OSU.
- TCU holds the head to head against Tech.
- 3-way tie between TCU, TTU, and OSU would give TCU first place.
- Texas holds head to head against OU and WVU
- 3-way tie between OU, Texas, and WVU goes to Texas
Best game one matchups for Texas in Arlington (@AaronLittleOB):
The most likely scenario is Texas vs OU at 9 AM on Wednesday, May 25th. The matchup here would be Jake Bennett (5-3, 3.66) vs Pete Hansen (8-1, 3.08) when these two matched up in Arlington back in April, here were the lines.
Bennett - 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Hansen - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 2 BB
The other team the Horns may see in game one would be West Virginia. This would mean a likely rematch between Pete Hansen and Jacob Watters. Watters (2-6, 5.85) has struggled this year but did have his best game against Texas. Watters went 6.1 IP, allowing 4 ER, while striking out 15. I would not expect Watters to be on the level that he was in that series opener. He was executing pitches at such a high level, it will be very difficult to do that again. Hansen pitched well against the Mountaineers, 8.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB.
The X-factor in a matchup vs WVU would be Trey Braithwaite. The WVU closer pitched 4.1 innings of relief, yielding only 1 ER in the finale of that series against Texas. I am of the belief that a matchup vs WVU would be better for the Horns. OU has been hitting the ball extremely well lately and could be an issue for Pete Hansen and the UT bullpen.
Golden Spikes Update (@AaronLittleOB):
Let’s take a look at the numbers Ivan has put up compared to the guys most likely to challenge him for the award. (All numbers are as of Tuesday morning)
Ivan Melendez (National ranking)
- .422 AVG (1st)
- 1.475 OPS (1st)
- 25 HR (1st)
- 76 RBI (3rd)
- .998 fielding %
Kevin Pirada, Georgia Tech C (National ranking)
- .363 AVG (113th)
- 1.201 OPS (20th)
- 24 HR (2nd)
- 77 RBI (2nd)
- Pirada is a strong defensive catcher which is what puts him in the mix. Strong hitting numbers from a catcher will always stand out when looking at Player of the Year candidates.
Cooper Hjerpe, Oregon State P (National ranking)
- 2.42 ERA (32nd)
- 0.90 WHIP (15th)
- 125 Strikeouts (3rd)
Other names to watch
- Parker Messick, Florida State P
- Sonny DiChiara, Auburn 1B
