Texas coach Charlie Strong will wrap up the biggest recruiting weekend of the year on Sunday. Some might argue it is the biggest recruiting weekend of Strong’s tenure because of the needs at defensive line and offensive line. This is also the first major recruiting weekend for offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert and offensive line coach Matt Mattox, Strong’s recent hires.
Strong’s recruiting ability has been debated since he stepped on campus, and those discussions will likely continue throughout his tenure at Texas. College observers will always compare Strong’s recruiting classes to other programs throughout the country. In reality, he will consistently receive criticism while other coaches receive a pass.
However, Strong’s biggest obstacle is not convincing kids to play at Texas.
Strong’s main hurdle is convincing elite kids to play in the Big 12 Conference, a league that has little appeal to recruits, only two major programs, and seemingly no vision for the future.
Former NFL quarterback Shaun King, who is a huge Texas supporter, called me last week. Our daily talk began like a Seinfeld episode – it was a conversation about nothing – until we began to discuss Strong’s program.
“Charlie’s biggest problem isn’t his recruiting,” King said. “Nobody wants to play in the Big 12.”
King’s theory was not totally new. The majority of college observers know Bob Bowlsby’s conference is being held together by duct tape and Flex Seal. The people in power refuse to admit they are failing as a football conference. We recently learned the Big 12 can have a conference championship game without adding more games, which means it will be time to invent another contradictory slogan in the future (can it top “One True Champion”?).
After taking a deeper look into the numbers, the Big 12 attracts less elite talent than any other power five conferences. As a result, Strong will always struggle to recruit in the Big 12. Even if Texas replaces Strong after this season, the next coach will face a similar uphill battle.
The best way to define elite talent is to look at 5-star athletes. Without going too far into Geoff Ketchum’s recruiting analytics, 5-star athletes typically have a 50 percent chance of becoming NFL players. If a coach can obtain a 5-star player, he has a person who can turn around his program. The difference between a 5-star player and a 3-star athlete is similar to taking the highway without traffic versus a street route – you will get there eventually, but one course is faster.
Oklahoma is a great example of what is wrong with the Big 12.
The Sooners finished 11-1 during the regular season and advanced to the college football playoffs. Clemson knocked out Oklahoma, 37-17, in the semifinals. Despite the loss, Oklahoma’s appearance in the final four was supposed to prove this conference could thrive with only 10 teams and the lack of a conference title game. Instead, it has done nothing to help Oklahoma’s recruiting.
Oklahoma’s recruiting class is currently ranked 29th in the nation by Rivals.com. The Sooners have 16 players committed, and none of those athletes are 5-stars. Sure, Texas is ranked 46th, but the Longhorns have only 13 verbal commitments and will likely finish near the top 15 after a 5-7 record. Oklahoma should be blowing away the competition right now. However, the Sooners are behind Duke and Kentucky (in football).
Nobody is standing on the table and questioning Stoops.
Imagine the reaction if that was Texas after making the playoffs.
Five-star athletes are not interested in the Big 12 – and the statistics prove it. Here is a look at the number of 5-star athletes this conference has attracted compared to other power five conferences since Texas A&M and Missouri left the Big 12 and joined the SEC.
2012
SEC – 10 (Alabama, 3; Florida,3; Georgia, 2; Texas A&M, 1; Missouri, 1)
Pac-12 – 8 (Stanford, 3; USC, 3; UCLA, 1; Washington, 1)
ACC – 5 (FSU, 3; Miami, 2)
Big 12 – 3 (Texas: Malcom Brown, DT; Johnathan Gray, RB; Oklahoma: Trey Metoyer, WR)
Big Ten – 1 (Ohio State, 1)
2013
SEC – 14 (Alabama, 4; Ole Miss -3; Florida – 2; LSU -2; Auburn, 2; Mississippi State, 1)
Pac-12 – 6 (USC, 5; Oregon 1)
ACC – 5 (FSU, 2; Virginia Tech, 1; Virginia, 1; Pittsburgh, 1)
Big Ten – 5 (Ohio State – 2; Michigan, 1; Penn State, 1)
Big 12 – 0
2014
SEC – 18 (Alabama, 6; Auburn, 3; Texas A&M, 3; LSU, 2; Tennessee, 2; Georgia, 1; Florida, 1)
ACC – 8 (FSU, 3; Virginia, 2; Miami, 1; Clemson, 1; North Carolina, 1)
Big Ten – 4 (Ohio State, 1; Michigan State, 1; Michigan, 1; Maryland, 1)
Pac-12 – 2 (USC, 2)
Big 12 – 1 (Oklahoma, 1 – Joe Mixon, RB)
2015
SEC – 19 (Alabama, 4; Tennessee, 4; LSU, 4; Georgia, 2; Auburn, 2; Florida, 2; Texas A&M, 1)
ACC – 8 (FSU, 5; Clemson, 3)
Pac-12 – 8 (USC, 4; UCLA, 3; Stanford, 1)
Big 12 – 1 (Texas, 1 – Malik Jefferson, LB)
Big Ten – 0
Total
SEC – 61
ACC – 26
Pac 12 – 24
Big Ten – 10
Big 15 – 5
Yep, the SEC has attracted 61 players with 5-star rankings compared to five from the Big 12 during a four-year time span.
Oh, it gets better.
Rivals began rating players in 2002, and there have been 43 players with a 5-star rating who have attended Big 12 schools over the past 14 years.
In the same time frame, 182 players with 5-star rankings have signed with SEC schools.
Yes, that is 182 (SEC) vs. 43 (Big 12).
Here is a look at the current 5-star verbal commitments in this year’s recruiting class:
SEC – 7
ACC – 3
Pac-12 – 2
Big Ten – 2
Big 12 –0
There have been plenty of articles written over the course of several years examining the issues plaguing this conference. Honestly, one of the biggest problems this conference has is the reliance on the state of Texas to supply its talent.
Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas heavily rely on this state to obtain players every year. Meanwhile, the SEC and ACC can obtain talent from several states in the Southeast, plus recruit select players from Texas. For example, Alabama has five verbal commitments from its own state, but Texas standouts Jalen Hurts (quarterback), Kendell Jones (defensive tackle) and Chris Owens (offensive lineman) are committed, too.
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 can pull talent from California, Arizona and Colorado.
This is why it makes sense for the Big 12 to expand into Florida. It might be hard to sign the 5-star prospects from the Sunshine State, but at least Big 12 teams will not drain this state since Iowa State might be the only program that recruits nationally. Adding BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, or Memphis, will not give the Big 12 a footprint in states with a huge talent pool.
If expanding into Florida is not an option, Texas should just take its ball and run toward the SEC or Pac-12. If Texas and Oklahoma can win a national championship and still struggle to attract 5-star players, it makes sense for both schools to find another conference. The Big 12 benefits from Texas and Oklahoma, but this conference is not doing either school any favors.
Strong has to fight a lot of battles to sway recruits before signing day.
His biggest challenge will always be convincing elite athletes to play in the Big 12 Conference.
Funniest Thing You Will See This Week
Sports On A Dime
1. Props to the UT coaching staff for being more active on Twitter since the dead period ended. The easiest way to build excitement about the program is to encourage kids to market UT by posting pictures during home visits by coaches and official recruiting trips. The majority of coaches have stepped up their social media presence, which is a good thing for Texas.
2. New England quarterback Tom Brady is on a mission to see NFL commissioner Roger Goodell face-to-face at the Super Bowl. Just envision Bob Kraft, Brady and Goodell on the same podium after a Super Bowl victory. This has the potential to be a memorable Super Bowl moment.
3. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs two things this offseason: a full recovery by Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy’s commitment to join Weight Watchers.
4. My heart wants to pick Carolina, but my brain says Seattle. The Seahawks are a veteran squad that knows how to win in the postseason, and I am not sure Cam Newton can carry his team to another victory.
5. Peyton Manning’s career in Denver hinges on his performance against Pittsburgh on Sunday. If he plays poorly, Denver will have to turn the page and give Brock Osweiler the team next year – assuming the future free agent wants to return. By the way, if Manning struggles, Denver better not hesitate to play Osweiler on Sunday.
6. Did San Francisco really part ways with one former college coach (Jim Harbaugh) to hire another former college coach (Chip Kelly) a year later? I still believe Kelly will have more success in college than the NFL, even if he is not responsible for personnel decisions in San Francisco. Good NFL coaches understand they cannot rule with an iron fist. Tom Coughlin learned that lesson when he coached at Jacksonville, and this is Kelly’s final chance to figure it out.
7. Doug Pederson, Philly? I can see why Eagles Fan ‘EDP445’ flipped out after hearing the news (do not click the link unless you are ready for a tirade full of profanity).
8. Is Pacman Jones supposed to receive the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award for his apology to Pittsburgh receiver Antonio Brown? I find it hard to give Jones credit for backing off his ridiculous accusation that Brown was faking a concussion.
9. Everybody hurts, sometimes
10. I appreciate heavyweight Deontay Wilder waiting for the Arizona-Green Bay game to end before delivering this devastating knockout.
I thought Tyson Fury coming into the ring to challenge Wilder after the victory was a pretty weak WWE knockoff.
