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It is hard to fault any Texas Longhorn football fan or observer for being a tad skeptical before the 2022 season.
It seems like there should be a commercial stating if you or a loved one was diagnosed with Longhorn PTSD, you may be entitled to financial compensation. That is what occurs after years of disappointment. Getting excited about recruiting classes that have not produced a Big 12 title since 2009. Talking yourself into believing in numerous assistant coaches who fail to get the most out of their respective groups. Longhorn fans have supported three coaches since Mack Brown’s departure and endured three 5-7 seasons. So many games started with Longhorn fans believing “It’s happening” but transitioned into “It’s happening – again” after their team collapses.
I cannot blame anyone for taking a cautious approach to the upcoming season. Heck, I will not predict anything greater than an 8-4 regular season record because if we are keeping it real, Texas has only recorded one season with more than eight wins since 2012 (9-3 regular season finish in 2018; 10-4 overall). Plus, expecting Texas to take a giant step forward after what occurred last season is seemingly the mustard seed faith discussed from that "other" pulpit on Sundays.
However, let us put aside our warranted skepticism for a moment and enter the rare world of optimism.
What if everything fell into place for Texas this season?
Just for a moment, allow yourself to believe most Longhorn observers are incorrect about everything they think will occur this season. Let us view every skeptic as a guesser. In fact, we can use last year’s Big 12 preseason predictions as evidence to show the experts can be wrong.
2021 Big 12 Football Media Preseason Poll
1. Oklahoma (35) 386
2. Iowa State (4) 351
3. Texas 273
4. Oklahoma State 266
5. TCU 255
6. West Virginia 185
7. Kansas State 163
8. Baylor 124
9. Texas Tech 103
10. Kansas 39
First-place votes in parenthesis.
Are you still laughing?
- Oklahoma State finished 12-2 and 8-1 in the Big 12
- Baylor finished 12-2 and defeated Oklahoma State in the conference title game.
- Oklahoma finished third in the Big 12.
- Iowa State failed to take advantage of a senior-led team and finished 7-6.
- Texas Tech finished 7-6 and defeated Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
- Texas was not bowl eligible.
If the experts were wrong before, they definitely can/will be incorrect in 2022.
I started thinking about what we would need to see from each position group this year for Texas to at least appear in the conference title game. Just getting to the game would be a major accomplishment. If Texas won its first Big 12 Championship since 2009, there will be a lot of babies named Steve born in late 2023.
For now, let us examine what needs to happen at each position for Texas to appear in Arlington on December 3.
Quarterback
Baylor’s passing offense defied the blueprint for success in the Big 12. Its passing offense was ranked eighth in the Big 12, Gerry Bohanon was ranked sixth in touchdown passes (18), sixth in passer rating (145.9), and Baylor was tied for seven in long passing plays. By the way, Baylor’s total defense was ranked fourth (Oklahoma State was first, followed by Iowa State and Kansas State). This was not the Oklahoma offense that won six-straight conference titles before last season.
Casey Thompson and Hudson Card combined to complete 216 of 344 passes for 2,703 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions (146.6 average passer rating). Former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones finished with 4,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and four interceptions during Sarkisian’s final season under Nick Saban. There is a middle ground that could lead to success for the Longhorns.
If you tell me Quinn Ewers will have 3,300 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, Texas is the team to beat in this conference.
Photo via Getty Images
Running Back
Texas finished with the Big 12’s second-best rushing offense behind … Baylor. Texas averaged 199 rushing yards per game while Baylor finished with 219.7. Baylor running back Abram Smith led the Big 12 in rushing yards last season (1601 and 12 touchdowns), while Bijan Robinson was sixth with 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Roschon Johnson finished with 569 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
With Abram Smith, Oklahoma’s Kennedy Brooks, and Iowa State’s Breece Hall preparing for the NFL draft, Robinson should emerge as the Big 12’s best running back this season. Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn is very talented, but Robinson is at least a day two pick.
If Robinson rushes for over 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, Texas will finish with one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.
Wide Receiver
Xavier Worthy led the Big 12 by averaging 81.8 yards per game. Worthy led the Big 12 in touchdown receptions (12). He was third in total yards (981), behind Oklahoma State’s Tay Martin and Iowa State’s Xavier Hutchinson. In addition, Worthy had nine receptions for 261 yards and two touchdowns during a loss against Oklahoma. The only thing Worthy could not do is prevent injuries to Troy Omeire or Jordan Whittington. The consistent presence of either receiver could have taken the focus off Worthy last season.
This offense needs a reliable No.2 receiver to complement Worthy. Isaiah Neyor is the most likely candidate to fill that role. Whittington was very productive when healthy. Whittington was the team’s second-leading receiver with 26 receptions, 377 yards, and three touchdowns. Incoming freshman receiver Brenen Thompson is the kind of explosive playmaker that Sarkisian covets.
If the second-leading receiver could exceed Whittington's 2021 output, Arlington could be a wonderful place to visit in December.
Photo via AP Photo
Tight End
According to Alex Dunlap, Cade Brewer appeared in 69 percent of tight end snaps last season, followed by Jared Wiley. Alex previously said, “So, in Billingsley, we see a player who -- more than any on the roster -- was utilized by Sarkisian in regard to alignment in virtually the same way as Cade Brewer was last season. Not a player he favored in inline situations, but certainly as an H-back, sniffer and lead-blocking type in the run game who can get out into routes and make plays as a receiver if need be, and who you like to split out wide 20-25% of the time. Now, remember, Billingsley has not shown that he's a good perimeter blocker yet while split out, so the fans saying he's going to step into a receiver role, possibly taking over for Texas' best stalk-blocking option in Marcus Washington, are off-base. Billingsley is a TE and one that looks to have the talent to help immediately.”
Brewer had 22 receptions for 184 yards and three touchdowns. The player who emerges as the starter will be measured in his ability to block for Ewers and Robinson. If those players are successful this season, the tight end will earn silent MVP honors.
Offensive Line
Texas gave up 27 sacks last season (ranked seventh in the Big 12). Texas allowed 36 sacks in 2019 and “improved” to 23 sacks in 2020. Kansas led the Big 12 by only allowing 16 sacks, followed by Oklahoma State’s 17. Texas allowed 37 quarterback hurries (it created only 24). However, Texas was tied with Iowa State for a league-best 63 tackles for loss (Baylor was 10th with 85).
The Longhorns have enough young talent to work with. Junior Angilau and Jake Majors could improve with a second year in the system. Heck, the offensive linemen who struggled last season might benefit from another year with Kyle Flood. Baylor allowed 18 sacks, while Oklahoma State did a great job of protecting the quarterback.
Anything less than 20 sacks allowed by Texas bodes well for this offense.
Defensive Line
The scariest stat from last season is linebacker Ben Davis leading Texas in sacks with 2.5. Davis come off the bench and still led the team. The defensive line failed to apply consistent pressure. Alfred Collins had two sacks, Byron Murphy II had two, T’Vondre Sweat had one, Keondre Coburn had one, while Vernon Broughton added 0.5.
Texas was ranked seventh in tackles for loss within the Big 12. The Longhorns have to find a way to become more disruptive up front. This defensive line cannot get pushed around this season, especially in the second half. The bar for disruption is so low, any statical increase would significantly improve this unit, and help Bo Davis’ defensive line.
Former TCU defensive end Ochaun Mathis intends to take an unofficial visit to Austin on Sunday. If Mathis eventually commits to Texas, he instantly becomes an impact player the Longhorns desperately need. In addition, Justice Finkley has a chance to emerge into a strong contributor this season.
Photo via TCU
Linebacker
DeMarvion Overshown led the team in tackles with 74, followed by Luke Brockermeyer (72) and Jaylan Ford (53). However, Sarkisian wanted more production from this group throughout last season, and he pursued multiple linebackers in the transfer portal during the offseason.
Oklahoma State’s Malcolm Rodriguez led the Big 12 with 131 tackles. Texas needs Overshown to look like the player who was destined to enter the NFL draft before last season. In addition, Ford flashed last season, while David Gbenda is on the cusp. If Texas can obtain more productivity from that entire room, this is a much better team.
Cornerbacks
Texas had the Big 12’s fifth-ranked pass defense. However, one of the biggest areas of struggle was defensive turnovers. Texas recorded only seven interceptions last season, which was tied for last in the Big 12 with Kansas. Josh Thompson had one interception while D’Shawn Jamison had one, too. B.J. Foster led Texas with three interceptions, followed by Brockermeyer.
Nevertheless, former Ohio State cornerback Ryan Watts could have an immediate impact as a starter opposite Jamison. I know there are Jahdae Barron fans who believe in his upside. Anthony Cook started at nickle-back last season. The addition of Watts should make everyone in that room better. If Texas can create at least five interceptions between two cornerbacks, it means the defensive line is creating pressure, and these DBs can have more opportunities to make plays.
Safeties
B.J. Foster, Chris Adimora, Brenden Schooler, and Tyler Owens have moved on. That leaves a lot of question marks in that room. Texas will have Jerrin Thompson and JD Coffey as the main incumbents, but the door is wide open for everyone in that room to compete for playing time this season.
If Texas does not add a safety through the transfer portal after spring football, imagine a room where incoming freshman Bryan Allen Jr. is pushing for playing time. Allen is an early enrollee and will have the benefit of a full offseason before training camp. In addition, Austin Jordan is a future addition to that room. Texas needs an upgrade at this position.
*
Am I giving you permission to dream big?
Sure, why not?
You have looked for reasons to be optimistic. New head coach, assistant coaches, strength and conditioning coaches, upgraded facilities, team BBQs, vacations, incoming freshmen, ping-pong tournaments, or time spent watching Free Solo. Nothing has ended the 12-year title drought for the Longhorns.
I plan to have a conservative approach this offseason.
However, I promise a judgment-free zone if you shoot for the moon.
The experts were wrong last year.
What if everything fell into place for Texas this season?
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Sports On A Dime
1. Texas women’s basketball does not get enough love, but the ninth-ranked Longhorns breezed past Oklahoma State after a close victory against Kansas this past week. Texas is on an eight-game win streak and will likely host first and second-round NCAA Tournament games. Props to coach Vic Schaefer and his squad for an incredible regular season.
2. If you lived it, skip ahead to the conference tournament
3. In case you missed it, I thought @Ketchum declaring 16 current players could be on the two-deep of the 2005 national championship team was an entertaining and fascinating conversation. Ketch explained his rationale in a column on Thursday morning. This is definitely worth the listen.
4. Props to Arch Manning for contributing to his team’s state championship victory on Saturday.
5. I do not think there are many Longhorn fans who will be surprised to learn Casey Thompson is currently the No.1 quarterback at Nebraska. When healthy, Thompson is a good quarterback, and currently the best option at Nebraska.
Here is a portion of a recent AP story:
“Casey Thompson, who started 10 games and passed for 24 touchdowns for Texas last season, opened Nebraska’s spring practice Monday as its No. 1 quarterback.
“I think he’s the best one right now,” new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple said. “That might change tomorrow. There’s nothing set in stone."
“Among the Cornhuskers’ priorities is sorting out the quarterback situation following Adrian Martinez’s transfer to Kansas State. Thompson and Chubba Purdy, who transferred from Florida State, are competing with returnees Logan Smothers and Heinrich Haarberg.
“What I saw today, attitude-wise and talent-wise, we’ve got enough there to be more than successful,” Whipple said.”
6. Ra’Shaad Samples’ departure to the L.A. Rams is a great gift for the Texas Longhorns. Samples was a major force in the DFW area. If Samples wanted an athlete, Longhorn staff members knew they had a major battle ahead. With Samples out of the mix, Texas no longer has to worry about that gatekeeper. It is a great career move for Samples. However, it is a recruiting gift for Texas.
7. Speaking of jumping to the NFL, Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury expressed the sentiments of many coaches who are not interested in dealing with the current stress of college football (via ProFootball Talk):
“Now that he’s slated to be with Arizona for the better part of the next decade, though, Kingsbury was singing a different tune in a Thursday appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, basically dismissing the thought of ever going back to coach at the collegiate level.
“I tell everybody and I’m not making this up, I would do anything before I went back to that,” Kingsbury said, via Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com. “Like I would do any job.
“It’s full time now with the social media and you’re either tweeting, calling, facetiming and there’s like this constant anxiety, because if you’re not doing it, the university down the street is. It just never goes away. [In the NFL], when you’re done with the football, you’re done, you go live your life. College, it just never goes away.”
8. The moment Doug Williams decided he was done with Grambling State after it hired Art Briles, something had to give. When it comes to Grambling State football, the two biggest names are Eddie Robinson and Williams. I am glad Williams was not afraid to walk away from the school he loves for a horrible decision. If hiring Art Briles is a true reflection of Grambling State coach Hugh Jackson’s decision-making ability, the Tigers better prepare for a rough ride.
9. The best comment in this announcement jokingly said, “Did he crash into the pen when he signed it?” According to Fox, Verstappen signed a 5-year, $300 million deal to remain with Red Bull. Verstappen seems worth it.
10. I was a huge GGG fan and seemed like ESPN’s Mike Coppinger was writing a letter to me while describing Gennadiy Golovkin’s recently announced fight against Ryota Murata on April 9 in Saitama, Japan. A GGG win coupled with Canelo Alvarez’s victory against Dmitry Bivol on May 7 sets up a trilogy fight between both fighters on September 17.
“But first, Golovkin will have plenty of doubters to quiet when he meets Murata, an Olympic gold medalist from Tokyo. Golovkin, one of the most menacing punchers in the sport, last competed in December 2020 when he stopped fringe contender Kamil Szeremeta.
"Before that, he struggled to a controversial decision over Sergiy Derevyanchenko in one of the best action fights of 2019. Amid the inactivity and an aging body, Murata should present a chance for Golovkin to show his form at this stage heading into a potential legacy-defining fight against Alvarez.
"When they fought in 2017, Golovkin was held to a controversial draw. One year later, he dropped a narrow decision to the Mexican star. Golovkin is rated No. 2 by ESPN at 160 pounds."
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