View from the Cheap Seats-Preseason
Growing pains
Growing pains
Well it’s that time of the year again. The triple digit summers are almost over and we can look forward to temps in the low 90s, not quite fall in the air, unless you are from Texas. Already the 1st College football has been played, in Dublin Ireland no less and the thrill of a new season is upon us.
Steve Sarkisian enters his 2nd season at the head man at TEXAS after opening his 1st year by coming out of the gates with the worst 1st year of any HC in TEXAS football history. In the middle of last season, he endured the longest losing streak (6 games, 4 of them with halftime leads) in my, hardly a spring chicken anymore, lifetime. And despite that, he managed to recruit not one but two #1 QBs in the nation and is about to land his 2nd Top 5 recruiting class. To say there is some turnover going on in Austin is a massive understatement but he has the kids believing in his vision.
Nuff said about 2021, Sark has made it clear that he will play the long game with his younger but very talented new players starting with his decision to name Quinn “the Mullet” Ewers as QB1. Stand by for a season of growing pains. Couple that with early OL projections that true freshman Kevin Banks appears to be our LT and Devon Campbell will be lining up at RG as we roll out to face Louisiana Monroe in game 1, Sark is sending the message TEXAS will build for the future. Frankly we here at the Cheap Seats agree with this path though there will be some unquestioned growing pains in 2022. Since TEXAS is a dark horse at best to win the conference, let’s get the players who will help TEXAS win the conference and get ready to hit 2023 with a vengeance. Of course, it helps that you went 5-7 last year so even 7-8 wins will be seen as great improvement. BTW, we will not be at all surprised to see 3 of the true freshmen OL starting by end of the year. By 2023, it will not be a surprise that all 5 OL starters will come from the 2022 recruiting class
Let’s go to the positive and talk about how Sark can bring his young QB along slowly and focus on team strengths. That discussion begins with Heisman hopeful BiJan Robinson (#4 odds per BetMGM) who is poised to finish 2022 as a Top 5 all time Running Back in TEXAS football history. BiJan plays the game with both power and with elusiveness. He is equally adept at finding the seem in a stretch run, breaking arm tackles or catching the ball out of the backfield. And BiJan hardly the only talented RB in that room, he is pair with the team’s emotional leader Roshon “I’ll do anything for the team” Robinson, a fine RB in his own right who likely has an NFL future. Behind him is Keilan Robinson, the speedy Alabama transfer who brings a great change of pace.
One of the biggest developments of both spring and fall drills has been the growth of TEXAS’ young TEs. This is lead by 5 Star recruit Ja’Tavion Sanders, who did not record a 2021 catch as a true freshman. He will be paired with another very talented Bama transfer in Jaheel Billingsley. Maybe paired often as Sark is fond of the 12 package, which we hope is TEXAS’ base offense. 12 means 2 TEs, 1 RB. Why this will work well for TEXAS is multi fold. You have more blockers to aid your best weapon, the running game. You have 4 talented TEs, all capable of splitting out and being a factor in the passing game. So basically, you can line up in 12 but by splitting out one of your TEs, you instantly spread the D and go 3 or 4 wide. TEXAS TE’s represent a match up nightmare for the defense that must commit pre-snap to smaller ‘coverage’ DBs or larger run stopping Safeties or LBs. This also makes play action passing even more effective as teams will want to crowd the box to stop #1 threat BiJan and the rushing attack.
Sark used 12 frequently with Bama’s title run and it worked because he also had serious weapons on the outside and TEXAS’ best, most proven WRs are Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington.
12 becomes more necessity as TEXAS landed the #1 transfer WR in Isaiah Neyor who was fitting right in at one outside WR spot only to lose him in spring drills to a season ending injury. And TEXAS’ WR room beside the 2 remaining starters is talented but very inexperienced. Cheat up to stop the run and run the risk of leaving one or both of TEXAS’ talented WRs in single coverage and either will make you pay by streaking past your DBs. Line up heavy on D with DLs and LBs, without changing personnel, TEXAS splits both TEs wide and send their RBs (all of whom accomplished pass catchers) in motion and instantly goes 5 Wide. Look for TEXAS to be in 12 frequently.
We would be remiss if we did not discuss the 2nd most talented player on the team in Xaiver Worthy who exploded on the scene last year as a true freshman and set freshman records at WR. How does the 12 line up help him? It will make it tough to double cover him and keep the rush game in check and suddenly the play action passing game opens big doors for him. Starting across from him with be Jordan Whittington, a dangerous man with the ball in his hands. Sark loves to burn teams deep and he certainly has the starting WRs to do that.
Sark surprised some by naming Quinn Ewers QB1. Ewers has never thrown a D1 ball and skipped his senior year of high school, so he's 2 years removed from actually playing the game. With any young QB you will have growing pains. So you help him but not asking him to carry the team. You help him with formation and play calling while playing to the strength of the team. And yes, it wasn’t a question of if Ewers would be named the starter but when.
Defense
Unlike the offense, our defense is clearly the weakest link for the Horns. We have nothing really to offer insight wise though with Gary Patterson on staff, it will not be hard to see a mid-season change in staff if Coach PK cannot rally his guys. Lots of talent but can we find a pass rush and tackle
TEXAS finished a poor #99 in scoring defense in Sark’s 1st season. If TEXAS can improve into the 45 to 60 range, by itself that should lead to 1-3 more wins from 2021.
Special teams
See Defense. Other than D’Shawn Jamison in the return game who is the only returning bright spot.
Conclusion
Sadly, TEXAS is at best a year away from being anything but a dark horse in conference play. Our advice, sit back, enjoy watching the young guns. The talent on the field will be enough to finish with 9 or 10 wins. The inexperience will cost the team a couple of those wins so we see the floor at 7-8 wins and anything above that is gravy. Anything below that. . .Katy bar the door. Enjoy BiJan’s Heisman run and Xavier Worthy setting himself up for the Biletnikoff Award in 2023.
Cheap Seats is going to do our pre-season projections a bit differently. We’re going to break our opponents/projections into tiers based on difficulty of opponent. Win tiers with our projection in parenthesis. We’ll start ranking the conference after week 1.
Major upset if we win
Bama (0-1)
50/50 balls, this stretch is the difference between 7 wins and 9.
OU
Baylor
OSU
KSU
(2-2) overall 2-3
Upsets if we lose
WVU
ISU
TCU
TT
3-1 overall 5-4
We’d better win
Kansas
La Monroe
UTSA
3-0 overall 8-4
