View from the Cheap Seats-Spring Game 2024
Sky high expectations.
Sky high expectations.
In the words of Gerry Hamilton, and a good many other CFB pundits, Spring Games are always zero-sum affairs. Certainly, this was the case for our TEXAS Longhorns this weekend. Playing under overcast skies with a heavy threat of rain, which never materialized, the passing game looked great. Sadly, this means the secondary looked weak, very weak as a matter of fact. Blown coverages and burned often by play-action and double moves will give Coach PK fits in film study. Generally, the offensive line held up in pass protection but the run game never got on track. Keep in mind the games are not schemed and it was a case where the QBs and WRs would be featured. We saw some glimpses from our running backs and we suspect more run schemes would have featured them better. To sum it up, the O was impressive. The D was not.
Let’s start with some of the highlights, starting with Arch Manning serving notice that the TEXAS QB room might be the strongest position group on the team. A 17-20 Day, 339 yards and 3 TDs. Should have been 4 as he hit Isaih Bond with a TD catch I’ll wager he makes 8 times out of 10. Arch’s 1st pass was a 75-yard TD bomb after the D bit badly on his play-action fake. Not to be completely outdone, early enrollee/should be prepping for his senior prom Trey Owen looked like a seasoned pro leading the 2nd team offense up and down the field.
Position Group rankings thru Spring
We give the best position group to the QB room considering early Heisman leader Quinn Ewers played a series and a half effectively. An interesting Quinn stat.
On passes over 20 yards, Quinn’s QBR for his 1st 15 starts was 23 (not good)
The last 7 games: 92. An impressive improvement. His completion % almost doubled from 24% to 43% while yards per attempt also improved from 7.9 ypa to 14.8.
We consider the QB room an improvement from 2023
An argument can be made that the Offensive Line room is actually the #1 position group on the team as they return 4 of 5 starters from last year. This group has already stated they are playing to be the Joe Moore Award winner (best offensive line in CFB) in 2024. We would not bet against them. Oddly, in 2025, TEXAS likely returns 3 of 5 starters. Coach Flood has done an amazing job. Another group improved from 2023
Imagine if you will, a team that loses their Top 5 pass catchers from the prior year yet the WR room is still the 3rd best position group on the team. Coach Sark does love him some portal to go with his outstanding recruiting. Isaiah Bond flashed in the Spring Game despite his TD drop. True Freshman, 5 Star WR Ryan Wingo served noticed he came to play. Johntay Cook was not to be denied and made some plays. One of the more impressive observations was how the WR were catching the ball with their hands and winning contested grabs. We rank this group as a push with 2023. The talent is there but how well and how quickly can they connect with Quinn and this offense? Today this is an unknown.
Coming in at the #4 position group on the team is the Running Back group. While the spring game did not feature the running backs, they certainly flashed at time, even the true freshmen who should be getting ready for their Senior Proms. TEXAS enjoys both talent and depth in the Running Back group. Call this a push compared to 2023.
Next up we’d rank the defensive ends/edges. Yes we are splitting up the defensive lines. Colton Vaseck was impressive in the Spring Game. Transfer Trey Moore seemed quiet but has had an impressive camp per reports and true freshman Collin Simmons is going to be a star. Along with Ethan Burke , the DE room seems to be ready to make some noise as a group. We rank them better/improved from 2023.
Linebackers. Jaylan Ford will be missed. Ant Hill is a star in the making while David Gbenda is a solid contributor. Today we have the rank the group just a bit behind 2023.
Defensive Tackle. This is the spot where TEXAS lost talent it does not seem ready to replace. Though this is likely Sark’s #1 target in the transfer portal as there are several “prospects” vying for what should be 1-2 spots. Alfred Collins may be poised to take that next step and showed off his athletic ability with a Pick 6 INT and Vernon “I’m getting married this weekend” Broughton. Not only is this group behind 2023 but it might be the biggest loss of talent on the team.
Defensive Backs. We should be talking about a dramatic improvement in talent in this room. Based on the spring game, one of our weaker units from 2023 appears worse.
Last year the defense was the stronger unit though the gap fairly narrow. This year the O might need to carry us. That’s the bad news, the good news, this O should be very good.
Coaching
We’d like to spend a minute talking about coaching because it matters. We will make no bones, the Cheap Seats were fans of Sark’s hire. Even after 2 years of stumbling and bumbling, we could still see things Sark was doing differently/better than his predecessors. He had things we hoped he would fix. While he preached All Gas No Brakes, he often let his foot off the gas in 2nd halves, especially on the road. He’d call a very creative, keep the bad guys off balance 1st half, followed by a plain Jane 2nd half. Likely our biggest criticism. On the plus side, he was a lights-out recruiter. Perhaps his biggest strength was in staff building. He has a really good staff. He has built a culture of winning, what we like best. We’re trying not to drink t he Kool-Aid to much but we think Sark has TEXAS on the verge of something REALLY special.
2024 Projection
Expectations are also sky high coming off a Big XII title as we leave the Big XII in our rearview mirror, and TEXAS' 1st playoff appearance where the Horns finished 1 play away from a National Title appearance to go with a final #3 ranking from AP. Easily the best season since 2009.
TEXAS will enter the season ranked #3 or #4 overall as they enter SEC play for the 1st time. Come on 1 July. The Horns are also the current #2 favorite to win the SEC. Winning the 1st year in the conference is a tradition as TEXAS won the 1st year of SWC play (1915) and 1st year of BigXII play (1996). Won the last year it was in both of those conferences as well. Despite playing a tough schedule, the season lays out as well as can be expected. Pre-season rankings in parenthesis. The toughest stretch will be Oklahoma (#13) and Georgia (#1) back to back but that will be coming off a bye week.
TEXAS opens with Colo State before traveling to Ann Arbor to play defending National Champ Michigan (#7). Will only be our 2nd game against a Michigan team in major re-loading mode. Still a tough test on the road. Following our trip to the Big House is 3 mostly tomato cans in UTSA and U Lousiana-Monroe before facing the first SEC foe in Mississippi State, all at home then a bye week before the Red River War. After Georgia at home, the Horns travel to Nashville and Vandy before returning home to face Florida. Road trip to visit old SWC rival Arkansas then back home to face Kentucky before traveling to Kyle Field to renew our one-sided rivalry with the Aggies. Currently scheduled on a Saturday breaking TEXAS’ tradition of playing Thursday or Friday of Thanksgiving week, rumor is Aggies refused to play that day.
Our way to early season projection: 10-2 with a playoff invite. Will not be shocked if we travel to Hotlanta for the SEC title game. A review of the past seasons, 2 losses put all Power 5 (power 2?) teams into the Top 12 rankings. 3 loss teams? They don’t make the Top 12 that often. A fairly clear cutoff.
Stats that Matter:
We’re going to focus on the same stat for each side of the ball.
In 2023, TEXAS offense was fairly poor in Red Zone TD scoring while TEXAS’ D was one of the best in the country.
Two predictions, TEXAS O will be greatly improved from their 48% rate of Red Zone TDs while TEXAS D will see their Red Zone TD % (53%) fall.
BTW, scoring both O & D matters far more than yards. In 2005, TEXAS was a 70% Red Zone TD team while it’s D ranked in the Top 10 as well.
How TEXAS does with these stats will go a long way to success for the season.
And the other stat that matters, 133 days till TEXAS football Have we mentioned this is our version of being lost in the desert?
Our too early Top 10
- #1 Georgia
- #2 tOSU
- #3 Oregon
- #4 TEXAS- at 1st blush, we think this is too high but today, TEXAS is simply better on paper than the rest.
- #5 Ole Miss
- #6 Utah
- #7 Bama
- #8 Norte Dame
- #9 Mizzu
- #10 Michigan
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