Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
FED Surprises With Yesterday's Rate Cut -
The Fed started the rate cut cycle off with a decisive 50bps cut in an 11-1 vote. The cut came in slightly larger than expected, with markets pricing a 62% probability of the Fed delivery a 50bps cut, rather than a 25bps one – Don’t remember a Fed cut that was more suspenseful.
The move signifies an aggressive pivot by the Fed to a policy aimed at bolstering the US labor market. “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said in his presser.
According to the Fed’s own projections, expect the Fed to cut its Fed Funds rates by an additional 75bps before year end and follow with 100bps in cuts next year.
Perhaps surprising to some, the bond market’s reaction to the Fed cut has been rather muted with mortgage and treasury rates mostly unchanged.
Housing Starts Increase Though Still Down Year Over Year -
After falling in July, housing starts were back up again in August, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
In August, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.356 million, up 2.9% month over month and up 3.9% compared to a year ago. The single-family sector was the sole source of thus increase, as multifamily starts were down 6.7% monthly and 6.2% annually to a rate of 333,000 starts. In contract, single-family housing starts were up 15.8% month over month and 5.2% annually in August to a rate of 992,000 starts.
“Slowdowns in new single-family construction over the summer reflected sagging builder confidence, but homebuilders appear to be more confident as mortgage rates have fallen over the past few weeks and as the Federal Reserve gets set to cut interest rates. Therefore, it is likely that we will see an uptick in new housing starts over the coming months,” Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.
Like starts, the number of permits issued also rose on a monthly basis in August, jumping 4.9% to 1.475 million. However, on a yearly basis, the pace at which permits were issued was down 6.5%. This trend was consistent across both the multifamily (451,000 permits) and single-family (967,000 permits) sectors, which posted 8.4% and 2.8% monthly increases and 16.8% and 0.5% yearly decreases, respectively.
“Despite the uptick in new housing starts last month, data on housing permits—which provide a leading indicator of future housing starts—were down compared to a year ago, suggesting that the delivery of new homes in 2025 could be lower than it was in either 2023 or 2024 when new housing construction, particularly apartment construction, was strong,” Sturtevant said. “The pace of apartment construction has slowed as record numbers of units have been delivered over the past 12 months and rent growth has slowed.”
Business As Usual for Realtors -
After all the blow-up with the NAR/MLS lawsuit settlement what was once thought of as a game-changer, it my eyes it has become a big "nothing burger" for the industry.
Yes realtors do have to have their buyer's sign an agreement that says they will pay their commission if the home they are buying is one where the seller is only compensating the listing agent only. The quality realtors will be able to explain their value and get the agreement signed, those that cannot may have more difficulty in getting buyers to sign it.
"What I'm seeing & hearing" - in almost all instances the sellers are still paying the commissions, though in some cases a reduced commission based on the sales price. That was always the case before as well - I rarely saw homes in the $3,000,000 + range paying each side 6%.
The truth is commission always were and have been negotiable.
Why are sellers still paying - bottom line they wan their homes shown.
The other difference is that the MLS may no longer list what compensation is available for the buyer. Now there is just added time to the buyer's agent to call each listing they want to show and find out the compensation being paid.
As with most "Class Action Lawsuits" the attorneys made all the money and in this case they just screwed up a system that had worked just fine for decades. They've only created more calls/tasks to get a home sold.
Odds & Ends That Can Effect the Economy & Rates -
Construction Spending is Down
Will the FEDs Move Create Stagflation - Will History Repeat Itself?
Current Home Price Trends
Where Are Rates Today?
With good credit 30 Year Conventional and Jumbo are in the High 5's - FHA Mid 5's - VA Low 5's and 15 Year Conventional High 4's
New Conventional Loan Limit
Also as of this coming Tuesday in anticipation of FHFA raising loan limits we will be raising our New Conventional 30 Year Loan Limit to $792,000 prior to their official announcement.
That means you can now buy a home for $833,685 with only a 5% Down-Payment
Always here to answer questions ITT or via DM
Have an Amazing Weekend & Hook 'Em!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
FED Surprises With Yesterday's Rate Cut -
The Fed started the rate cut cycle off with a decisive 50bps cut in an 11-1 vote. The cut came in slightly larger than expected, with markets pricing a 62% probability of the Fed delivery a 50bps cut, rather than a 25bps one – Don’t remember a Fed cut that was more suspenseful.
The move signifies an aggressive pivot by the Fed to a policy aimed at bolstering the US labor market. “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said in his presser.
According to the Fed’s own projections, expect the Fed to cut its Fed Funds rates by an additional 75bps before year end and follow with 100bps in cuts next year.
Perhaps surprising to some, the bond market’s reaction to the Fed cut has been rather muted with mortgage and treasury rates mostly unchanged.
Housing Starts Increase Though Still Down Year Over Year -
After falling in July, housing starts were back up again in August, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
In August, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.356 million, up 2.9% month over month and up 3.9% compared to a year ago. The single-family sector was the sole source of thus increase, as multifamily starts were down 6.7% monthly and 6.2% annually to a rate of 333,000 starts. In contract, single-family housing starts were up 15.8% month over month and 5.2% annually in August to a rate of 992,000 starts.
“Slowdowns in new single-family construction over the summer reflected sagging builder confidence, but homebuilders appear to be more confident as mortgage rates have fallen over the past few weeks and as the Federal Reserve gets set to cut interest rates. Therefore, it is likely that we will see an uptick in new housing starts over the coming months,” Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.
Like starts, the number of permits issued also rose on a monthly basis in August, jumping 4.9% to 1.475 million. However, on a yearly basis, the pace at which permits were issued was down 6.5%. This trend was consistent across both the multifamily (451,000 permits) and single-family (967,000 permits) sectors, which posted 8.4% and 2.8% monthly increases and 16.8% and 0.5% yearly decreases, respectively.
“Despite the uptick in new housing starts last month, data on housing permits—which provide a leading indicator of future housing starts—were down compared to a year ago, suggesting that the delivery of new homes in 2025 could be lower than it was in either 2023 or 2024 when new housing construction, particularly apartment construction, was strong,” Sturtevant said. “The pace of apartment construction has slowed as record numbers of units have been delivered over the past 12 months and rent growth has slowed.”
Business As Usual for Realtors -
After all the blow-up with the NAR/MLS lawsuit settlement what was once thought of as a game-changer, it my eyes it has become a big "nothing burger" for the industry.
Yes realtors do have to have their buyer's sign an agreement that says they will pay their commission if the home they are buying is one where the seller is only compensating the listing agent only. The quality realtors will be able to explain their value and get the agreement signed, those that cannot may have more difficulty in getting buyers to sign it.
"What I'm seeing & hearing" - in almost all instances the sellers are still paying the commissions, though in some cases a reduced commission based on the sales price. That was always the case before as well - I rarely saw homes in the $3,000,000 + range paying each side 6%.
The truth is commission always were and have been negotiable.
Why are sellers still paying - bottom line they wan their homes shown.
The other difference is that the MLS may no longer list what compensation is available for the buyer. Now there is just added time to the buyer's agent to call each listing they want to show and find out the compensation being paid.
As with most "Class Action Lawsuits" the attorneys made all the money and in this case they just screwed up a system that had worked just fine for decades. They've only created more calls/tasks to get a home sold.
Odds & Ends That Can Effect the Economy & Rates -
Construction Spending is Down
Will the FEDs Move Create Stagflation - Will History Repeat Itself?
Current Home Price Trends
Where Are Rates Today?
With good credit 30 Year Conventional and Jumbo are in the High 5's - FHA Mid 5's - VA Low 5's and 15 Year Conventional High 4's
New Conventional Loan Limit
Also as of this coming Tuesday in anticipation of FHFA raising loan limits we will be raising our New Conventional 30 Year Loan Limit to $792,000 prior to their official announcement.
That means you can now buy a home for $833,685 with only a 5% Down-Payment
Always here to answer questions ITT or via DM
Have an Amazing Weekend & Hook 'Em!
MH
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