Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Upper 6's
15 Year Conventional - Mid 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
The Fed Decides to Remain Neutral -
Homebuyers who were hoping that mortgage rates would drop this summer may be disappointed. However, they may still get a break.
The U.S. Federal Reserve voted not to cut the federal funds rate this week. While different from mortgage rates, the two generally move in the same direction.
The Fed began hiking interest rates in early 2022 to combat high inflation—and mortgage rates steadily began rising as a result. Last fall, the Fed began lowering rates as inflation came down.
However, the Fed has paused the cuts as it waits to see how tariffs and other policies will impact inflation.
“The inflationary threats to the economy slightly outweigh the risk of a recession,” said Jason Obradovich, chief investment officer at New American Funding. “That prevents the [Fed] from lowering rates.”
Mortgage rates averaged 6.81% for 30-year, fixed-rate loans in the week ending June 18, according to Freddie Mac data. That was down slightly from last year, when rates averaged 6.87%.
It’s about a percentage point lower than late October 2023, when rates hit 7.79%.
Typically, the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy or combat a downturn. If unemployment rises, the Fed is likely to cut rates.
However, if the Fed cuts rates prematurely, inflation could rise.
“The challenge faced by the market today is the high uncertainty the current tariff battle and immigration enforcement will have on inflation and the jobs market,” said Obradovich.
Affordability to Improve Based On Several Factors Including Rate Cuts & Price Cuts -
The good news for homebuyers and homeowners hoping to refinance their mortgages is that the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. The first cut is anticipated for September.
This should put some downward pressure on mortgage rates.
In addition, home prices are beginning to come down in many real estate markets across the country. They ticked down in 35 of the nation’s 50 largest housing markets in May, according to Realtor.com.
In addition, nearly a fifth of all home listings underwent a price cut in May, according to Realtor.com.
Lower prices should help with housing affordability. Lower rates could also put homeownership more within reach.
“Demand for housing will be somewhat subdued until mortgage rates get close to the low 6s and high 5s,” said Obradovich.
Texas Housing Numbers May 2025 -
In May 2025, home prices in Texas were down 1.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $351,600. On average, the number of homes sold was down 4.2% year over year and there were 31,214 homes sold in May this year, down 32,655 homes sold in May last year. The median days on the market was 50 days, up 8 year over year.
In May 2025, there were 179,357 homes for sale in Texas, up 14.9% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 47,943 and up 2.6% year over year. The average months of supply is 4 months, up 0 year over year.
Texas Housing Demand
How competitive is the market?
In May 2025, 13.8% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 2.2 points year over year. There were only 37.1% of homes that had price drops, up from 32.0% of homes in May last year. There was a 97.4% sale-to-list price, down 0.39 points year over year.
Texas has 56% higher for sale housing inventory than the historic average.
Something to Keep in Mind -
Dallas and Austin leading the way the wrong way...
Austin Office Market is Starting to Look Like the Mid to Late 80's -
National Market Looks Ugly As Well -
Final Thoughts -
Thanks for reading and happy to answer any questions here or in a DM.
I'm always here to help you and those you care about for mortgage needs.
Have an Amazing Week & Hook 'Em!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Upper 6's
15 Year Conventional - Mid 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Mid 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - Low 6's
The Fed Decides to Remain Neutral -
Homebuyers who were hoping that mortgage rates would drop this summer may be disappointed. However, they may still get a break.
The U.S. Federal Reserve voted not to cut the federal funds rate this week. While different from mortgage rates, the two generally move in the same direction.
The Fed began hiking interest rates in early 2022 to combat high inflation—and mortgage rates steadily began rising as a result. Last fall, the Fed began lowering rates as inflation came down.
However, the Fed has paused the cuts as it waits to see how tariffs and other policies will impact inflation.
“The inflationary threats to the economy slightly outweigh the risk of a recession,” said Jason Obradovich, chief investment officer at New American Funding. “That prevents the [Fed] from lowering rates.”
Mortgage rates averaged 6.81% for 30-year, fixed-rate loans in the week ending June 18, according to Freddie Mac data. That was down slightly from last year, when rates averaged 6.87%.
It’s about a percentage point lower than late October 2023, when rates hit 7.79%.
Typically, the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy or combat a downturn. If unemployment rises, the Fed is likely to cut rates.
However, if the Fed cuts rates prematurely, inflation could rise.
“The challenge faced by the market today is the high uncertainty the current tariff battle and immigration enforcement will have on inflation and the jobs market,” said Obradovich.
Affordability to Improve Based On Several Factors Including Rate Cuts & Price Cuts -
The good news for homebuyers and homeowners hoping to refinance their mortgages is that the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. The first cut is anticipated for September.
This should put some downward pressure on mortgage rates.
In addition, home prices are beginning to come down in many real estate markets across the country. They ticked down in 35 of the nation’s 50 largest housing markets in May, according to Realtor.com.
In addition, nearly a fifth of all home listings underwent a price cut in May, according to Realtor.com.
Lower prices should help with housing affordability. Lower rates could also put homeownership more within reach.
“Demand for housing will be somewhat subdued until mortgage rates get close to the low 6s and high 5s,” said Obradovich.
Texas Housing Numbers May 2025 -
Texas Housing Market Overview
What is the housing market like right now?In May 2025, home prices in Texas were down 1.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $351,600. On average, the number of homes sold was down 4.2% year over year and there were 31,214 homes sold in May this year, down 32,655 homes sold in May last year. The median days on the market was 50 days, up 8 year over year.
Top 10 Metros in Texas with the Fastest Growing Sales Price
- Friendswood, TX 28.8%
- Bellaire, TX 28.0%
- Texarkana, TX 21.6%
- Brushy Creek, TX 21.5%
- Lakeway, TX 18.0%
- Cibolo, TX 16.0%
- Rockwall, TX 15.4%
- Lake Jackson, TX 15.1%
- Mission Bend, TX 14.7%
- Sherman, TX 14.0%
Texas Housing Supply
Are there enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand?In May 2025, there were 179,357 homes for sale in Texas, up 14.9% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 47,943 and up 2.6% year over year. The average months of supply is 4 months, up 0 year over year.
Texas Housing Demand
How competitive is the market?
In May 2025, 13.8% of homes in Texas sold above list price, down 2.2 points year over year. There were only 37.1% of homes that had price drops, up from 32.0% of homes in May last year. There was a 97.4% sale-to-list price, down 0.39 points year over year.
Top 10 Most Competitive Cities in Texas
- The Woodlands, TX
- West University Place, TX
- Flower Mound, TX
- Keller, TX
- Coppell, TX
- Deer Park, TX
- Carrollton, TX
- Richardson, TX
- Euless, TX
- Southlake, TX
Texas has 56% higher for sale housing inventory than the historic average.
Something to Keep in Mind -
Dallas and Austin leading the way the wrong way...
Austin Office Market is Starting to Look Like the Mid to Late 80's -
National Market Looks Ugly As Well -
Final Thoughts -
Thanks for reading and happy to answer any questions here or in a DM.
I'm always here to help you and those you care about for mortgage needs.
Have an Amazing Week & Hook 'Em!
MH
