West Virginia Players
- Thread starter FlourBluffHorn
- Start date
Both Texas and West Virginia come out of the bye week at 3-1, but both programs look very different under the hood. Holgo didn't flee the mountains just because he hated the night life. He knows what left the program (5 NFL draft picks, the offense) and what was coming back. Of course, Major Applewhite didn't exactly set the table for him in Houston, but let's explore that tangent elsewhere.
The Mountaineers were humiliated on the road at Missouri (38-7), scraped by James Madison (20-13) and Kansas (29-24), and showed some legitimate spirit with a second half whipping of a pretty poor NC State team, who were held back offensively by a horrendous QB (who they've since benched). WVU's statistical profile isn't great and they don't have many players that jump off of the screen.
Las Vegas is struggling with what to do with a Herman team that hasn't excelled as a road favorite, Texas has lost their last five road openers, and the Horns are facing a classic "trap game" before the big showdown in Dallas. West Virginia hasn't been a double digit dog since 2013 -- when they upset Oklahoma State. Throw in an array of Texas injuries in a Texas pass defense that has already performed poorly and the 10,000 foot trend-driven view of Texas isn't encouraging. The line opened at Texas -11, was bid down as low as -9.5 and then shot up to -11.5. Neither the public or the sharps can get a grip on this matchup.
In addition, pure quant nerds are still trying to use production models from last year to understand this year's Texas -- as if Texas is missing Newton at RB, LJH at WR and the Longhorn OL is "down" from the losses of Vahe, Anderson, Rodriguez. Instead of being the best group since 2006. Trends and returning production don't drive game results. The players do. My preseason prediction that Texas would replace and improve most of their losses have held true. Certainly on offense and the defensive line.
I'll try to cut through the trend nonsense and give you an actual sense of the team we'll play and how Texas matches up.
Mountaineer Defense
West Virginia has struggled with teams that spread them out, but have snuffed out more conventional looks with their DL play and a disruptive scheme. Missouri and Kansas spread out the Mountaineers and ran on them, with the added insult of KU QB Carter Stanley's 75 yard scoring toss when they blew a coverage. Kansas only scored 24 points, but they moved the ball to the tune of >7.5 yards per play. They were really only limited by their defense's inability to get the Mountaineer O off of the field on 3rd down and two dumb turnovers. Frankly, my eyes told me that Kansas was their equal athletically and probably should have won the game.
The Mountaineer defensive players to note are the Stills brothers - Dante and Darius - a pair of DL who have combined for 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. When WVU blitzes, they frequently do so less to find an open gap, but to try to create 1-on-1 pass rushing situations for the Stills Bros as they move them around. They're squatty, explosive players (6-2, 290ish) who bring it hard on passing downs and can be very disruptive in the running game. Both will pick their spots to rest and the Texas OL needs to press them when they sense that. We're not accustomed to West Virginia having first rate DL talent (they typically have their best players in the secondary and at LB) and portions of the Texas OL will have its best challenge since LSU. Stills water don't run deep though - this defense is sorely lacking in depth, particularly in the secondary, and Texas should be able to tax them as the game progresses.
West Virginia's linebackers are straight up Big 12 types - small and mobile. They undercut blocks, run around big men and don't like to face power. Braun and Angilau have proven effective at finding smalls in space and erasing them. In fact, our OL's overall athleticism and blocking accuracy against that type of player is a benefit we'll see pay dividends over the course of the entire season.
West Virginia's secondary has a lot of seniority, but questionable top line talent, particularly in pass coverage. While they are willing tacklers, they really had trouble getting Missouri (22 missed tackles) and KU skill players on the ground in space. Paging Devin Duvernay. The Mountaineers mix it up schematically, but have generally tried to play defense in depth, keep the ball in front of them, and force the opposing offense to execute to score. That can be a struggle for bad college offenses, but I expect some of the teams on the WVU Big 12 slate to move up and down the field at will in 5-20 yard chunks.
If the Texas offense plays a clean game with minimal penalties or mental errors, it should do just that.
Special Teams
Their FG kicker is 6 of 9 on the year, but only 2 of 5 from 40-49 yards. That will influence West Virginia decision making on 3rd and 4th down between the 25-35 yard lines, particularly given the let-it-all-hang-out nature of this game. The Texas defensive staff must understand that 3rd and 5 from the Texas 28 is likely two downs to go. A third down run or a gadget play is very much in play.
Their punter is mediocre and they opt for hang time over distance. Important to note in the field position game.
Mountaineer Offense
QB Austin Kendall has been Kaptain Checkdown so far. Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater think he's conservative. Kendall is averaging an anemic 6 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages less than 10 yards per completion overall. What's the issue for this three yards and a cloud of bust passing offense?
First, Austin keeps missing downfield shots. Badly. Air mail overthrows. Second, West Virginia replaced their entire receiving corps. Talent and experience levels there are far off from their troika of Jennings/Sills/Simms. Third, the WVU OL has questionable pass protection (heightened by the loss of All Big 12 guard Josh Sills) and they're trying to get the ball out quickly on standard downs and then take occasional max protect deep shots. It's smart not to expose them, but it puts a hobbit's ceiling on the offense. The result is a grind-it-out offense that tries to manufacture first downs, possess the ball, and take their shots when the opposing defense loses focus.
The bright spot in the passing game is WR Sam James, who has grabbed 26 balls and is their #1 option by a substantial margin. While it may seem like an odd suggestion to give him the TylanWallace treatment, taking him away on key downs with a double team would deprive Kendall of his primary option, force him to hold the ball, and could force him into check down mode (RB Kennedy McKoy has 16 catches....for 4.5 yards per catch) or force him into a bad throw or held ball sack.
West Virginia has had sporadic success running the ball (though they average 3.3 yards per carry overall) and they find space less with superior blocking as with motion, tempo, misdirection and smoke and mirrors. In truth, Texas and Todd Orlando have been extremely susceptible to that kind of chicanery in the past, so it's important the Texas defense honor basic fundamentals and ignore the jet sweep/counter/late motion eye candy. The fact that Kendall Austin is an average runner will help narrow our options. West Virginia is running basic stuff - they just dress it up hoping someone will blow an assignment or run themselves out of the play. This could be a sneaky Juwan Mitchell game for us. BJ Foster, Brandon Jones and Chris Brown must be on point in run support.
Y'all likely remember their lead back Kennedy McKoy, who seems to be completing his ninth year of eligibility there. I like what I've seen of no-nonsense runner Leddie Brown, who has seemingly supplanted Marcell Pettaway as their #2 runner. Brown is the only WVU runner averaging over 5 yards per carry. The other two primary backs are averaging 3.1 and 2.6 yards per carry, respectively.
West Virginia will run the ball and nickel and dime us in the passing game. The key is to remain patient, tackle well and then jump on opportunities when they present themselves. The Mountaineers are only averaging 4.7 yards per play and I expect Graham-Coburn-Roach to kick their OL's ass straight up and spill runnersoutside. The safeties and linebackers just need to clean it up. They're going to be hyped up for Homecoming and Neal Brown's best chance for a statement win that offers some hope for what should be a bleak year. Texas needs to understand that WVU's first few plays will be run at tempo, with confusing looks seeking blown coverages or missed assignments, and on a script. Given that, make sure Orlando has a base call he likes and don't be shy about jumping some routes early.
Final Thoughts
If you sense that I don't think WVU is very good, you're right. I think they're a 2-7 or 3-6 record Big 12 team. That hasn't stopped Tom Herman Texas teams from playing down to the competition before, but this is also Herman's first good Texas offense wearing roady storm trooper whites. OL and DL superiority travels well. An experienced talented QB who is playing lights out travels well. Home field advantage dissipates quickly when the visitor's big guys beat yours and the opposing QB keeps throwing strikes.
I'm expecting a double digit win in Morgantown. How about you?
The Mountaineers were humiliated on the road at Missouri (38-7), scraped by James Madison (20-13) and Kansas (29-24), and showed some legitimate spirit with a second half whipping of a pretty poor NC State team, who were held back offensively by a horrendous QB (who they've since benched). WVU's statistical profile isn't great and they don't have many players that jump off of the screen.
Las Vegas is struggling with what to do with a Herman team that hasn't excelled as a road favorite, Texas has lost their last five road openers, and the Horns are facing a classic "trap game" before the big showdown in Dallas. West Virginia hasn't been a double digit dog since 2013 -- when they upset Oklahoma State. Throw in an array of Texas injuries in a Texas pass defense that has already performed poorly and the 10,000 foot trend-driven view of Texas isn't encouraging. The line opened at Texas -11, was bid down as low as -9.5 and then shot up to -11.5. Neither the public or the sharps can get a grip on this matchup.
In addition, pure quant nerds are still trying to use production models from last year to understand this year's Texas -- as if Texas is missing Newton at RB, LJH at WR and the Longhorn OL is "down" from the losses of Vahe, Anderson, Rodriguez. Instead of being the best group since 2006. Trends and returning production don't drive game results. The players do. My preseason prediction that Texas would replace and improve most of their losses have held true. Certainly on offense and the defensive line.
I'll try to cut through the trend nonsense and give you an actual sense of the team we'll play and how Texas matches up.
Mountaineer Defense
West Virginia has struggled with teams that spread them out, but have snuffed out more conventional looks with their DL play and a disruptive scheme. Missouri and Kansas spread out the Mountaineers and ran on them, with the added insult of KU QB Carter Stanley's 75 yard scoring toss when they blew a coverage. Kansas only scored 24 points, but they moved the ball to the tune of >7.5 yards per play. They were really only limited by their defense's inability to get the Mountaineer O off of the field on 3rd down and two dumb turnovers. Frankly, my eyes told me that Kansas was their equal athletically and probably should have won the game.
The Mountaineer defensive players to note are the Stills brothers - Dante and Darius - a pair of DL who have combined for 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. When WVU blitzes, they frequently do so less to find an open gap, but to try to create 1-on-1 pass rushing situations for the Stills Bros as they move them around. They're squatty, explosive players (6-2, 290ish) who bring it hard on passing downs and can be very disruptive in the running game. Both will pick their spots to rest and the Texas OL needs to press them when they sense that. We're not accustomed to West Virginia having first rate DL talent (they typically have their best players in the secondary and at LB) and portions of the Texas OL will have its best challenge since LSU. Stills water don't run deep though - this defense is sorely lacking in depth, particularly in the secondary, and Texas should be able to tax them as the game progresses.
West Virginia's linebackers are straight up Big 12 types - small and mobile. They undercut blocks, run around big men and don't like to face power. Braun and Angilau have proven effective at finding smalls in space and erasing them. In fact, our OL's overall athleticism and blocking accuracy against that type of player is a benefit we'll see pay dividends over the course of the entire season.
West Virginia's secondary has a lot of seniority, but questionable top line talent, particularly in pass coverage. While they are willing tacklers, they really had trouble getting Missouri (22 missed tackles) and KU skill players on the ground in space. Paging Devin Duvernay. The Mountaineers mix it up schematically, but have generally tried to play defense in depth, keep the ball in front of them, and force the opposing offense to execute to score. That can be a struggle for bad college offenses, but I expect some of the teams on the WVU Big 12 slate to move up and down the field at will in 5-20 yard chunks.
If the Texas offense plays a clean game with minimal penalties or mental errors, it should do just that.
Special Teams
Their FG kicker is 6 of 9 on the year, but only 2 of 5 from 40-49 yards. That will influence West Virginia decision making on 3rd and 4th down between the 25-35 yard lines, particularly given the let-it-all-hang-out nature of this game. The Texas defensive staff must understand that 3rd and 5 from the Texas 28 is likely two downs to go. A third down run or a gadget play is very much in play.
Their punter is mediocre and they opt for hang time over distance. Important to note in the field position game.
Mountaineer Offense
QB Austin Kendall has been Kaptain Checkdown so far. Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater think he's conservative. Kendall is averaging an anemic 6 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages less than 10 yards per completion overall. What's the issue for this three yards and a cloud of bust passing offense?
First, Austin keeps missing downfield shots. Badly. Air mail overthrows. Second, West Virginia replaced their entire receiving corps. Talent and experience levels there are far off from their troika of Jennings/Sills/Simms. Third, the WVU OL has questionable pass protection (heightened by the loss of All Big 12 guard Josh Sills) and they're trying to get the ball out quickly on standard downs and then take occasional max protect deep shots. It's smart not to expose them, but it puts a hobbit's ceiling on the offense. The result is a grind-it-out offense that tries to manufacture first downs, possess the ball, and take their shots when the opposing defense loses focus.
The bright spot in the passing game is WR Sam James, who has grabbed 26 balls and is their #1 option by a substantial margin. While it may seem like an odd suggestion to give him the TylanWallace treatment, taking him away on key downs with a double team would deprive Kendall of his primary option, force him to hold the ball, and could force him into check down mode (RB Kennedy McKoy has 16 catches....for 4.5 yards per catch) or force him into a bad throw or held ball sack.
West Virginia has had sporadic success running the ball (though they average 3.3 yards per carry overall) and they find space less with superior blocking as with motion, tempo, misdirection and smoke and mirrors. In truth, Texas and Todd Orlando have been extremely susceptible to that kind of chicanery in the past, so it's important the Texas defense honor basic fundamentals and ignore the jet sweep/counter/late motion eye candy. The fact that Kendall Austin is an average runner will help narrow our options. West Virginia is running basic stuff - they just dress it up hoping someone will blow an assignment or run themselves out of the play. This could be a sneaky Juwan Mitchell game for us. BJ Foster, Brandon Jones and Chris Brown must be on point in run support.
Y'all likely remember their lead back Kennedy McKoy, who seems to be completing his ninth year of eligibility there. I like what I've seen of no-nonsense runner Leddie Brown, who has seemingly supplanted Marcell Pettaway as their #2 runner. Brown is the only WVU runner averaging over 5 yards per carry. The other two primary backs are averaging 3.1 and 2.6 yards per carry, respectively.
West Virginia will run the ball and nickel and dime us in the passing game. The key is to remain patient, tackle well and then jump on opportunities when they present themselves. The Mountaineers are only averaging 4.7 yards per play and I expect Graham-Coburn-Roach to kick their OL's ass straight up and spill runnersoutside. The safeties and linebackers just need to clean it up. They're going to be hyped up for Homecoming and Neal Brown's best chance for a statement win that offers some hope for what should be a bleak year. Texas needs to understand that WVU's first few plays will be run at tempo, with confusing looks seeking blown coverages or missed assignments, and on a script. Given that, make sure Orlando has a base call he likes and don't be shy about jumping some routes early.
Final Thoughts
If you sense that I don't think WVU is very good, you're right. I think they're a 2-7 or 3-6 record Big 12 team. That hasn't stopped Tom Herman Texas teams from playing down to the competition before, but this is also Herman's first good Texas offense wearing roady storm trooper whites. OL and DL superiority travels well. An experienced talented QB who is playing lights out travels well. Home field advantage dissipates quickly when the visitor's big guys beat yours and the opposing QB keeps throwing strikes.
I'm expecting a double digit win in Morgantown. How about you?
Also, one of WVU’s starting safeties just used the new 4 game RS rule to enter the portal.
I’m badly craving a beatdown. WVU has been chirping since last year’s game. I really want to see Herman bring the hammer.
Yea, we have serious unsettled business the next 2 weeks. Already avenged one, 2 more to go. Then we get healthy with Witt and Sterns and I really like where we can go. Time to kick some serious ass.
Doubt you'll see it with all the injuries and OU next week. Hopefully things go well enough that Sam only plays one series in the 3rd quarter and then shuts it down and Casey takes over.
Agreed.
I think Tom goes in a gets a win with as minimal effort as possible. We've got a grind coming on the horizon.
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