What "Tier 1" Players are Returning? (Deep Dig - FINAL)

Alex Dunlap · Dec 1, 2021

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DEFENSE

As always, we'll give analysis along with the tiered rankings (now FINAL for the 2021 season) which are derived via a proprietary scoring formula, and based on the following advanced charting statistics (please note the distinctions in how tackles, etc. are counted and why these stats will always differ from the official university stats):

Click Images to Enlarge

DEEP-DIG-2016-OFFICIAL-Texas-Longhorns-Football-Def-DIS-LEGEND.jpg

***Please note since 2019: -1 point has been added for any defensive penalty outside of defensive pass interference which is always considered a coverage burn and is not double-counted. Please also note that since 2019, missed tackles that result in blown contains are counted as blown contains (-1) and are not double-counted as both a blown contain and a missed tackle***

Defensive Snap Counts By Week and Percentage of Total Defensive Snaps Played; 2021 Season - FINAL:

Defensive Productivity Market-Share Percentages and Snaps per Production Caused Metrics - FINAL (snaps per disruption caused is colored coded from blue/best to white/median to red/worst):

OFFENSE

Click Images to Enlarge

Skill Player Snap Counts and Game-by-Game Percentages of Offensive Snaps (2021 Regular Season - FINAL)

Personnel-Grouping Frequency Overall and by Game (2021 Regular Season - FINAL)

Tight End Total Snap Counts and Alignment Data (2021 Regular Season - FINAL)

Deep Dig OL Grading Scale (each snap by each player is graded as its own independent event)

OL Grades (KSU)

LT Christian Jones - 66 snaps
1 run-stuff, 1/2 TFL, 1/2 QB hit allowed
1 holding penalty
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.3

LT Andrej Karic - 3 snaps
1 sack allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A

LG Junior Angilau - 26 snaps
No disruption allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.92

LG/RG Hayden Conner - 45 snaps
1/2 TFL, 1 QB hit allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75

C Jake Majors - 69 snaps
2 TFL, 1/2 QB hit, 1 pressure, 1 run-stuff allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 74.57

RG Tope Imade - 67 snaps
2 TFL allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.3

RT Derek Kerstetter - 69 snaps
1 run-stuff allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.16

OL Grades by Week (2021 - FINAL)

OL Snaps-per-Disruption Allowed (2021 - FINAL)

2021 OL Snaps-per-Disruption Allowed Versus Historical Precedent (Final Snaps/Disruption Allowed - All Players Over 100 Snaps - Last 7 Seasons - FINAL)

Deep-Dig-OL-Totals-for-historical-comparison-2021-FINAL-.jpg

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curveball1 said:
I'm expecting a large amount of expletives in this thread.

I don't know, I think a large majority of the board has sort of already moved on from the 2021 season and are more focused on how the team can stand to improve heading into next year.

Williamhill2034 said:
Hard to imagine us not upgrading from Thornton next year

Truly impossible to imagine. On the whole, the only two guys close to his ineffectiveness on a per-snap basis among starter-ish contributors since 2015 are 2017 Naashon Hughes and 2016 Davante Davis.

TheAssquatch said:
Did you watch the Michigan OL? Wouldn't it be nice to do an evaluation on a group like that one day?

I saw someone asked me to grade that game versus Ohio State, that was certainly not something I had the time to do on a regular week of doing the Deep Dig, but I've had similar requests in the past to do a "good" offensive line so people can see the difference in how a line that looked good would grade out versus what Texas has been doing. I'll have plenty of time in the coming weeks, though, so, I will go ahead and actually plan on doing that.

penacar said:
Great Job, so from the returning starters who are the guys we know will actually do their job and not have to worry about? Is this an impossible question?

So basically, the Deep Dig's "Group 1" of players as Sark would call it? Looking at the players projected to be back on the scholarship board, I'd say these guys (in no particular order):

Offense
Jared Wiley
Junior Angilau
Bijan Robinson
Roschon Johnson
Keilan Robinson
Jordan Whittington
Xavier Worthy

Defense
Jaylan Ford
Ovie Oghuofo
Keondre Coburn (?)
T'Vondre Sweat
Byron Murphy
Jahdae Barron

J-VON11 said:
been racking my brain trying to figure out why/how Baylor is 10-2 and we are 5-7, what did they do better, what positions were better etc. How did this happen, its been driving me crazt

I wish I could be of help, but I really only have time to do my work on Texas and my NFL work during this season. It is only this time of year that I turn a lot of attention to watching other teams as I'm doing my work on the draft prospects. Baylor, in the Texas game, certainly tackled better and had terrific gap integrity on defense when compared to the Longhorns. That's a pretty big start.

C K said:
I know this info is out there piecemeal, but having studiously charted our team for this abysmal season, what are the most important areas of improvement from your perspective, and how can we get there (recruiting, development, scheme, etc.)? I guess I am asking if you were the HC, what would your top priorities be.

1) strength and pad level at the point of attack on the defensive line.
2) ability of linebackers to shed blockers while moving laterally at the second level.
3) more strength, explosion and general growth from the offensive line.
4) any semblance of an organic pass rush off the edge.
5) better tackling on the back end among safeties and corners.
6) better edge-setting by force defenders to not give up blown contains.
7) better/more consistent QB play.

jmith1911 said:
I saw someone post that Barron was our top graded defensive player. Is that accurate. If so surprising since he wasn't the starter but I assume there is a minimum rep threshold. I assumed it would've been Overshown or even Schooler

Barron has been awesome over the last few games and you can see that his snap share was starting to show it. Indeed, I included him in my list of "Group 1" guys who I'm not worried about coming into next season.

RLong68 said:
Kerstetter's grade if horrible. When you consider he came into the year with 37 starts under his belt not to mention he was in year FIVE, his year average grade is horrific.

I don't think he did himself many favors this year. He didn't give up a bunch of horrible disruption, but he just wasn't as good or as effective with all the outside-zone stuff that Flood runs. Anecdotally, and I could look this up with a little bit of time, but I am sure if he was only graded on inside-zone and power runs, he would have had a much better season.

Ghost of Nappa said:
As a whole, how did our OL play grade out compared to previous years?

Year and average Deep Dig Grade (for the entire unit per game) on the season:

2019: 77.83
2020: 77.44
2018: 76.59
2017: 76.13
2016: 76.01
2021: 75.51
2015: 75.28

WhatAboutEggs said:
@Alex Dunlap what players in last year's class have redshirted? Do you have that information?

Ketch and Blake Skaggs have done a good job with documenting all that here in the updated scholarship board.

Bigmonkey said:
It was good to see BJ Foster benched after the horrific play on the QB run for a TD. But looking at the numbers, it seems that Jerrin Thompson wasn't much of an upgrade on a production per snap basis. Same with the LBs - according to the production figures neither David Gbenda or Jaylon Ford was an improvement over Overshown, though both were better than Brockermeyer. Who do you see starting at safety and LB in 2022?

At LB, I would predict Ford and Gbenda inside.
At safety, I would predict for now Adimora and Coffey with Jerrin Thompson moved to nickel.
Yes, that play by Foster will be my lasting memory of him, although there were many plays similarly frustrating from him in his career.

weswar34 said:
Overall, how do you feel about improvement/lack of improvement from the players on the O-line this year?

Are there any that surprise you (in either direction)?

I was most surprised by the massive step backwards it appears that Andrej Karic has taken. While I still like his tools, he was a real mess in a lot of big spots this year, most notably the OU game.

ATrain_123 said:
@Alex Dunlap Of the Safeties currently on roster and those set to enroll early, who do you see getting the majority of looks come spring practice?

I hope JD Coffey gets all the looks he can handle, he has looked great AND FAST in limited action. I really like what we saw out of him this year, although it was clearly not enough to get an entire handle on his style of play.

Nash Talks Texas said:
Thoughts on Jared Wiley, in 2022 do we need to move into the future with Helm/Davis/Sanders? We know Sark loves 2 TEs.

Have you seen any film on Brenen Thompson? Any way he contributes in 2022? Speed kills.

Would you like to see Keilan Robinson move to more of a Rondale Moore role as long as Bijan and Roschon are healthy?

1) Even if Wiley plays a ton, at least one of those guys will also play a ton. See Brewer and Wiley this year.
2) Yes and Yes. And Yes.
3) Yes. Great way to think about using him a little more creatively.

RLong68 said:
Perhaps and I'm not going to question that analysis since you put in a lot of work, but, and this may sound quite simple, IMO Kerstetter simply hasn't been nearly as good as people talked about him being for 3 years. He feels like a classic example of a guy who gets a lot of action early and people go ga-ga over him because, if he plays a lot as a true frosh then he MUST be good right? I think looking back, hell or in real time, that was much more a product of circumstances of lack of options than some overwhelming talent. Angilau is on the same career path.

I agree with a lot of points you made here. He does have a lot of a Zach Shackelford air to his profile where his starter status since freshman season led to him being something of a team leader, and a guy who got talked up among those around the team more than his abilities on their own should have led to.

curveball1 · Dec 1, 2021