Do I overrate A&M recruits?

[Ketchum]

I'm sure the title of my post will cause a few raised eyebrows on the A&M site, but as I was going over the 2002 class this weekend, I could help but realize how many top-rated A&M players hadn't panned out for a variety of reasons.

Here's a look at the A&M prospects I've had on my lists since 1997.

1997

#2 - LB - Roylin Bradley
#15 - OL - Seth MccKinney
#16 - LB - Christian Rodriguez
#21 - CB - Jay Brooks
#24 - DL - Rocky Bernard
#26 - DB - Jason Glenn
#32 - DB - Michael Jamison
#33 - LB - Harold Robertson
#36 - DL - Rod Edwards

Overview: Probably A&M's strongest class. McKinney, Bernard and Edwards all play in the NFL. Three of the top four were probablky busts when compared to their rating, but even Brooks and Bradley were solid players.

1998

#3 - QB - Chip Ambres
#16 - WR - Bethel Johnson
#24 - WR - Choo Freeman
#26 - QB - Vance Smith
#28 - WR - Robert Ferguson
#29 - FB - Jamar Toombs

Overview: Weird class. Johnson and Ferguson are pros, and Toombs was solid before several bone-headed decisions. A couple of guys were pro baseball guys and Smith was a bust. Overall, they took only one or two defensive players in this class.

1999

#3 - DT Ty Warren
#5 - LB - Jason Frederick
#18 - DB - Sammy Davis
#19 - OL - Alan Reuber
#24 - DE - Jarrod Pennright
#27 - QB - Colby Freeman
#36 - LB - Damien West
#41 - DB - Terrence Keil
#44 - LB - Jarrod Morris
#46 - DE - Shannon Mitchell
#50 - RB - Richard Whitaker
#65 - TE - Fred Spiller
#67 - LB - Toron Woolridge
#72 - OL - Brett Lively
#80 - DB - Ellison Collins

Overview: The start of a trend? The headliners in the class were easy to spot, but the overwhelming majority of the class were guys that did not pan out.

2000

#13 - DB - Adam Black
#15 - DE - Linnis Smith
#20 - FB - Keith Joseph
#23 - CB - Dawon Gentry
#27 - QB - Dustin Long
#37 - DT - Eddie Brown
#38 - CB - Jonte Buhl
#44 - OL - Geoff Hangartner
#50 - OL - Kasey Cheshire
#54 - RB - Mathis Gil
#67 - LB - Brian Thompson
#85 - K - Cody Scates
#99 - DB - Kevin Mangum

Overview: It kind of speaks for itself. In a year where more than 40 of the top 100 players have played in the NFL or are currently in NFL camps, only two Aggies make the list. A case can be made that only three of this entire group were good college players.

2001

#5 - OL - Jami Hightower
#18 - WR - John Roberson
#24 - QB - Jason Carter
#31 - CB - Byron Jones
#32 - DE - Lawrence Hooper
#37 - CB - Bryant Singleton
#38 - DB - Jaxson Appel
#48 - RB - Derek Farmer
#54 - WR - Terrance Thomas
#55 - LB - Jarvis Mayes
#74 - DE - David Ross

Overview: Another clunker year. Of this group, there have been a few guys that have played snaps on bad A&M teams, but none are front-line guys with the possible exception of Hightower, who has been up and down. Appel and Carter have been solid.

2002

#4 - QB - Reggie McNeal
#21 - Ath - L'Tydrick Riley
#28 - LB - Archie McDaniel
#41 - Lb - Kelvin Flood
#47 - RB - Courtney Lewis
#51 - DE - Brian Ellis
#54 - DT - Brandon Fails
#58 - TE - Quinlan Germany
#75 - K - Todd Pegram
#79 - Ath - Brandon Leone
#84 - WR - Chad Schroder

Overview: McNeal was an easy selection for the top five, but few of the other guys have emerged as good D1 players...maybe only Lewis and Pegram. Others have played some, but not distiguised themselves on bad A&M teams.

2003

#3 - OL - Jorrie Adams
#7 - LB - Justin warren
#12 - DE - Jason Jack
#22 - LB - Lamar Mitchell
#26 - DB - Stephen Hodge
#32 - LB - Ta Ta Thompson
#39 - OL - Cody wallace
#40 - TE - Joey Thomas
#44 - OL - Corey Clark
#45 - Wr - Earvin Taylor
#50 - DE - Chris Harrington
#51 - DB - Bdoerick Newton
#61 - RB - Derrick brown
#62 - DT - Tate Pittman
#80 - CB - John kelly
#97 - RB - Chris Alexander

Overview: Too early to really know for sure on this class, but there are few difference makers at this point. Warren and Jack are damn good players, but some of the of the guys are still in the developmental phase. Others are just not very good or have already left the program, including the best prospect in the class.

2004

#3 - QB - Stephen Mcgee
#6 - DT - William Morrisey
#14 - DE - Chris Smith
#24 - Ath - DJ Davis
#54 - DB - Danny Gorrer
#56 - WR - Kerry Franks
#65 - QB - Jordan Chambliss
#69 - DE - Cyril Obiozor
#87 - LB - Mark Young
#90 - CB - Quentin Gardner
#91 - TE - Amos Gbunblee

Overview: Waaaay to early, but Franks is already a good player.

Overall, it looks like the top players that are rated in the top 25 have been very good for the most part, but after that, I might have had most of the rest of their guys overrated.

Thoughts?

 

[RICKY.EARL.CED]

Who in the hell are those guys anyways?

 

[naijahorn]

I think it is more accurate to say that Texas gets the best recruits, even by rankings and that those in the Top 40 or so seem to pan out better. Since, Texas does that, of course A&M will have more of those guys that don't pan out on average.

 

[tecohorn]

I've always thought you did it to not make waves but I guess it's something your doing subconsciously after reading your post.

 

[Gerry H]

I don't think so Geoff. That 77-0 beating in Norman wasn't a reflection of a lack of talent, but a team and their coach getting to know each other. The wood shed beating at the Cotton Bowl was more of the QB not wanting to get hit and the team responding to their leader. The loss at Baylor, well......
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[bevobill]

Yes.

 

[Boone_3]

Kaboom! goes webslimer.

 

[Gerry H]

I will also add that I personally did a lot of happy dances myself when A&M received many of those commits.

 

[TTomTerrific]

yes.....so does this entire network when you look at their on the field results positioned against their rivals recruiting rankings.

The benefit of the doubt they are given is astonishing or their coaches suck.
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[Weekapaug]

I have thought recently that you seem to rank A&M recruits higher than most others. Not sure where I got that impression from, but Jerrod Johnson comes to mind somehow (not sure where you have him ranked vs others).

It would depend on when you ranked the players vs. when they committed to A&M. If you've already got them ranked somewhere, & then they commit to A&M & proceed to suck, that's probably aggies fault b/c they seem to not be able to evaluate effectively. Every Top 100 list is going to have busts, misses, & surprises, so maybe aggy, being that they have not done so well lately on the field, are bad evaluators & they are able to take up more than their fair share of the busts.

But just in case, I'll be eyeing that final # next to Jerrod Johnson's name.

 

[royalewithcheese]

Interesting. Before Fraudphoney arrived aggsy had normal attrition. Since Fruadphoney has arrived-attrition skyrocketed. Aggsy has lost 16 to attrition in both the 2003 and 2004 classes. Not listed, becuase they were not Top 100 players who aggsy lost: Kedric Goins, Degrate, Boudreax, Jefferson

2002

#4 - QB - Reggie McNeal
#21 - Ath - L'Tydrick Riley
#28 - LB - Archie McDaniel
#41 - Lb - Kelvin Flood-drugs
#47 - RB - Courtney Lewis
#51 - DE - Brian Ellis-no longer on team
#54 - DT - Brandon Fails-passed away
#58 - TE - Quinlan Germany
#75 - K - Todd Pegram
#79 - Ath - Brandon Leone
#84 - WR - Chad Schroder

2003

#3 - OL - Jorrie Adams-quit team, b-u-s-t
#7 - LB - Justin warren
#12 - DE - Jason Jack
#22 - LB - Lamar Mitchell
#26 - DB - Stephen Hodge
#32 - LB - Ta Ta Thompson-found out he was a poet, and Franny the Tranny didn't know it
#39 - OL - Cody wallace
#40 - TE - Joey Thomas
#44 - OL - Corey Clark
#45 - Wr - Earvin Taylor
#50 - DE - Chris Harrington
#51 - DB - Bdoerick Newton
#61 - RB - Derrick brown-no longer on team
#62 - DT - Tate Pittman-was 'jerked off'the team
#80 - CB - John kelly-no longer on team
#97 - RB - Chris Alexander

2004

#3 - QB - Stephen Mcgee
#6 - DT - William Morrisey
#14 - DE - Chris Smith
#24 - Ath - DJ Davis-no longer on team
#54 - DB - Danny Gorrer
#56 - WR - Kerry Franks
#65 - QB - Jordan Chambliss
#69 - DE - Cyril Obiozor
#87 - LB - Mark Young-never made it to Bryan_Davidian Station
#90 - CB - Quentin Gardner-prison
#91 - TE - Amos Gbunblee-no longer on team

 

[Black Scholes]

So "The Flood is coming" was actually a code for drugs? That explains a lot.

 

[Steering Around]

don't you have to keep the numbers low so that aggies can understand them? i think you are just being polite to them....

 

[Ketchum]

I've thought about this and there are a couple of different aspects to consider.

A lot of their guys were obviously outside of the elite range, which means that those that said I was just downgrading their classes were wrong. However, a lot of schools including Texas have a lot of misses outside of the elite prospects range. However, a lot of that can be written off to the fact that the talent level at schools like UT, OU and LSU is such that only the very cream of the crop will rise. Other very talented players fall by the wayside because they can't beat out better studs.

The starnge thing about this trend is that A&M has been bad or very average during most of these years and a lot o these guys couldn't see the field...even then. A guy like Archie McDaniel or Jaxson Appel can see a lot of time early in their careers because there's nothing else on campus to keep them off the field. Neither of those players would start at an elite program, but they log a lot of minutes at A&M.

Still, even with the lack of talent on campus, most of these names never made a dent.

 

[royalewithcheese]

Most glaringly overrated IMHO:

2003's

#45 - Wr - Earvin Taylor-hasn't done shit. One TD in his career and 26 catches.

 

[InTheBlood]

Originally posted by royalewithcheese:
#62 - DT - Tate Pittman-was 'jerked off'the team


[/B]

LMAO

 

[SLC_Horn]

I think you do it because if they don't pan out...which judging from those list they almost never do...then you and everyone can say they're doing less with the same talent. It's a win win situation. Either they're getting the talent which keeps them quite for a bit (who am I kidding, they are never quiet) or they are squandering the talent they do get. Either way you win and they're still blind, dumb, and happy.

If I were aggy it would concern me more that I am now beating TCU, Baylor, and Utep for recruits. If I were aggy I would start worrying about myself rather than what Texas is doing.

It is funny that no one has said this yet, but it begs the question...if Texas recruits are panning out and aggys are not...then what does that say about aggy player development. What if Jorrie Adams had committed here instead of aggy...would he be a candidate for all big twelve?

Some of those guys the are getting are athletes, but the vast majority just aren't panning out.

That said the obvious answer is that we aren't recruiting the same players so you naturally don't watch as much film of aggy players as you do longhorn targets. IF you take websiders opinion on what kind of players they are getting and factor that into your list then your are bound to be misled.

I guess Mack is a better talent evaluator and coach than he gets credit for...imagine that.

 

[Ketchum]

Originally posted by SLC_Horn:
I think you do it because if they don't pan out...which judging from those list they almost never do...then you and everyone can say they're doing less with the same talent. It's a win win situation. Either they're getting the talent which keeps them quite for a bit (who am I kidding, they are never quiet) or they are squandering the talent they do get. Either way you win and they're still blind, dumb, and happy.

If I were aggy it would concern me more that I am now beating TCU, Baylor, and Utep for recruits. If I were aggy I would start worrying about myself rather than what Texas is doing.

It is funny that no one has said this yet, but it begs the question...if Texas recruits are panning out and aggys are not...then what does that say about aggy player development. What if Jorrie Adams had committed here instead of aggy...would he be a candidate for all big twelve?

Some of those guys the are getting are athletes, but the vast majority just aren't panning out.

That said the obvious answer is that we aren't recruiting the same players so you naturally don't watch as much film of aggy players as you do longhorn targets. IF you take websiders opinion on what kind of players they are getting and factor that into your list then your are bound to be misled.

I guess Mack is a better talent evaluator and coach than he gets credit for...imagine that.

SLC, there's no motive involved with their rankings. I try to rank them as I see them and we can always look back later and say if I was wrong or right. As far as I know, I'm the only person anywhere that has his ratings archived this far back for everyone to see with easy access.

Also, I don't have less film of the A&M recruits to view. Part of my job is to make sure I see everyone.

 

[longhornrumble]

Really good posts Ketch.

You kind of addressed what would be my primary question with your second post and that would be, "How do our recruits pan out when put under the same scrutiny as the A&M guys?"

Since we're talking about A&M, though, the problem has some complexity to it. One, you spend lots of time evaluating recruits and you try the best that you can to place a value on them. Second, they commit to A&M and they don't go anywhere either because of discipline or academic issues or they're just not being developed. Basically, without going into great detail, the system has some checks and balances to it and I think the problem is larger than you i.e., recruiting rankings.

Their guys, I suspect, have issues at a far higher percentage than top peer universities.

 

[SLC_Horn]

Originally posted by Ketchum:

Originally posted by SLC_Horn:
I think you do it because if they don't pan out...which judging from those list they almost never do...then you and everyone can say they're doing less with the same talent. It's a win win situation. Either they're getting the talent which keeps them quite for a bit (who am I kidding, they are never quiet) or they are squandering the talent they do get. Either way you win and they're still blind, dumb, and happy.

If I were aggy it would concern me more that I am now beating TCU, Baylor, and Utep for recruits. If I were aggy I would start worrying about myself rather than what Texas is doing.

It is funny that no one has said this yet, but it begs the question...if Texas recruits are panning out and aggys are not...then what does that say about aggy player development. What if Jorrie Adams had committed here instead of aggy...would he be a candidate for all big twelve?

Some of those guys the are getting are athletes, but the vast majority just aren't panning out.

That said the obvious answer is that we aren't recruiting the same players so you naturally don't watch as much film of aggy players as you do longhorn targets. IF you take websiders opinion on what kind of players they are getting and factor that into your list then your are bound to be misled.

I guess Mack is a better talent evaluator and coach than he gets credit for...imagine that.

SLC, there's no motive involved with their rankings. I try to rank them as I see them and we can always look back later and say if I was wrong or right. As far as I know, I'm the only person anywhere that has his ratings archived this far back for everyone to see with easy access.

Also, I don't have less film of the A&M recruits to view. Part of my job is to make sure I see everyone.

Well it was worth a shot. I was trying to give you the benifit of the doubt. I guess they just suck at developing talent....what little they do get.

 

[microhorn]

Do you realize the amount of "Ketch is the devil" posts and demeaning photoshops this GK topic is going to generate over at TexAgs? It's roughly akin to poking a hornet nest with a stick.

 

[tmgr0922]

Re: Small Corrections...

...it's Ron Edwards ('97) and the ags didn't recruit Brian Ellis...we did...they signed a *** DE named Dennis Ellis out of Cleveland who didn't qualify.

 

[Ketchum]

Re: Small Corrections...

Originally posted by dondrysdale:
...it's Ron Edwards ('97) and the ags didn't recruit Brian Ellis...we did...they signed a *** DE named Dennis Ellis out of Cleveland who didn't qualify.

Fruedian slip.

 

[StevieRay8283]

Originally posted by Ketchumo I overrate A&M recruits?

Yep! You're just Max Emfinger with a better haircut.

 

[SLC_Horn]

Originally posted by microhorn:
Do you realize the amount of "Ketch is the devil" posts and demeaning photoshops this GK topic is going to generate over at TexAgs? It's roughly akin to poking a hornet nest with a stick.

Well that says all you need to know. If they can't argue the point and how could they, then they just make fun of Ketch.

Ketch is saying he overrates their recruits...what could they possible say? If he is actually overrating them then what the hell are they complaining about? He is acutally doing them a favor. If Ketch is underrating them on the other hand then should be doing better than they are but they're not. I can't wait for the spin from the aggy on this one.
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[HornLegacy]

We all know you were afraid to rate McKinney lower because the old man kept driving by your office with his binoculars hanging from the gun rack on his pickup.

Can't say I blame you either.

 

[boernefan]

SLC_Horn,

It may be that it is harder to develop talent when your team is not expected to play for the top spot in their division of their conference. They can get up for a few games because of hatred but it is hard to play well all season when you are middle of the pack.

 

[FTP Horn]

My question is out of all the players below which ones did we really want to sign and didn't get?

2002

#4 - QB - Reggie McNeal
#21 - Ath - L'Tydrick Riley
#28 - LB - Archie McDaniel
#41 - Lb - Kelvin Flood-drugs
#47 - RB - Courtney Lewis
#51 - DE - Brian Ellis-no longer on team
#54 - DT - Brandon Fails-passed away
#58 - TE - Quinlan Germany
#75 - K - Todd Pegram
#79 - Ath - Brandon Leone
#84 - WR - Chad Schroder

2003

#3 - OL - Jorrie Adams-quit team, b-u-s-t
#7 - LB - Justin warren
#12 - DE - Jason Jack
#22 - LB - Lamar Mitchell
#26 - DB - Stephen Hodge
#32 - LB - Ta Ta Thompson-found out he was a poet, and Franny the Tranny didn't know it
#39 - OL - Cody wallace
#40 - TE - Joey Thomas
#44 - OL - Corey Clark
#45 - Wr - Earvin Taylor
#50 - DE - Chris Harrington
#51 - DB - Bdoerick Newton
#61 - RB - Derrick brown-no longer on team
#62 - DT - Tate Pittman-was 'jerked off'the team
#80 - CB - John kelly-no longer on team
#97 - RB - Chris Alexander

2004

#3 - QB - Stephen Mcgee
#6 - DT - William Morrisey
#14 - DE - Chris Smith
#24 - Ath - DJ Davis-no longer on team
#54 - DB - Danny Gorrer
#56 - WR - Kerry Franks
#65 - QB - Jordan Chambliss
#69 - DE - Cyril Obiozor
#87 - LB - Mark Young-never made it to Bryan_Davidian Station
#90 - CB - Quentin Gardner-prison
#91 - TE - Amos Gbunblee-no longer on team

 

[alohahorn19]

A&M as a whole has been overrated for years. I'm not sure if there's another University with so much money thrown at it, that's accomplished so little in both sports & academics.

 

[XOVER0]

Yes, you overrate A&M recruits.

Any other difficult questions with which I can help you answer, Ketch?

XOVER - the answer man.