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Do I overrate A&M recruits?

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Originally posted by boernefan:
SLC_Horn,

It may be that it is harder to develop talent when your team is not expected to play for the top spot in their division of their conference. They can get up for a few games because of hatred but it is hard to play well all season when you are middle of the pack.

That is the point...they keep telling us they are contending for the top spot in the conference so they should be up for every game. The talent should be there already if you read websider or even Ketch.

Now if aggy is willing to admit that they are a middle of the pack also ran of the big twelve south then I will spot them the fact that it is tough to get up for most games. Knowing before the game even starts that you stand less than a 50/50 chance of winning each game is bound to be difficult on the players and thus the overall development of the players.

Until they admit they are not in the same league as the elite teams...well even the average teams in the big twelve...then why should we hold them to a lower standard then they hold themselves? Besides it is a lot more fun to make fun of them when they are truly shocked that they only win 7 games a year despite all that talent they have.
 
Ketch--- To what do you attribute the 180 turn around in teams & recruiting in the last 10-15 year period? What did RC do so right in his glory years? Was it mostly because we had coach wine & cheese and McWilliams? When Mack came, did RC's fall begin?
 
Originally posted by Ketchum:
I'm sure the title of my post will cause a few raised
eyebrows on the A&M site, but as I was going over the 2002 class
this weekend, I could help but realize how many top-rated A&M
players hadn't panned out for a variety of reasons.

Here's a look at the A&M prospects I've had on my lists since 1997.

1997

#2 - LB - Roylin Bradley
#15 - OL - Seth MccKinney
#16 - LB - Christian Rodriguez
#21 - CB - Jay Brooks
#24 - DL - Rocky Bernard
#26 - DB - Jason Glenn
#32 - DB - Michael Jamison
#33 - LB - Harold Robertson
#36 - DL - Rod Edwards

Overview:
Probably A&M's strongest class. McKinney, Bernard and Edwards all
play in the NFL. Three of the top four were probablky busts when
compared to their rating, but even Brooks and Bradley were solid
players.

1998

#3 - QB - Chip Ambres
#16 - WR - Bethel Johnson
#24 - WR - Choo Freeman
#26 - QB - Vance Smith
#28 - WR - Robert Ferguson
#29 - FB - Jamar Toombs

Overview:
Weird class. Johnson and Ferguson are pros, and Toombs was solid before
several bone-headed decisions. A couple of guys were pro baseball guys
and Smith was a bust. Overall, they took only one or two defensive
players in this class.

1999

#3 - DT Ty Warren
#5 - LB - Jason Frederick
#18 - DB - Sammy Davis
#19 - OL - Alan Reuber
#24 - DE - Jarrod Pennright
#27 - QB - Colby Freeman
#36 - LB - Damien West
#41 - DB - Terrence Keil
#44 - LB - Jarrod Morris
#46 - DE - Shannon Mitchell
#50 - RB - Richard Whitaker
#65 - TE - Fred Spiller
#67 - LB - Toron Woolridge
#72 - OL - Brett Lively
#80 - DB - Ellison Collins

Overview:
The start of a trend? The headliners in the class were easy to spot,
but the overwhelming majority of the class were guys that did not pan
out.

2000

#13 - DB - Adam Black
#15 - DE - Linnis Smith
#20 - FB - Keith Joseph
#23 - CB - Dawon Gentry
#27 - QB - Dustin Long
#37 - DT - Eddie Brown
#38 - CB - Jonte Buhl
#44 - OL - Geoff Hangartner
#50 - OL - Kasey Cheshire
#54 - RB - Mathis Gil
#67 - LB - Brian Thompson
#85 - K - Cody Scates
#99 - DB - Kevin Mangum

Overview:
It kind of speaks for itself. In a year where more than 40 of the top
100 players have played in the NFL or are currently in NFL camps, only
two Aggies make the list. A case can be made that only three of this
entire group were good college players.

2001

#5 - OL - Jami Hightower
#18 - WR - John Roberson
#24 - QB - Jason Carter
#31 - CB - Byron Jones
#32 - DE - Lawrence Hooper
#37 - CB - Bryant Singleton
#38 - DB - Jaxson Appel
#48 - RB - Derek Farmer
#54 - WR - Terrance Thomas
#55 - LB - Jarvis Mayes
#74 - DE - David Ross

Overview:
Another clunker year. Of this group, there have been a few guys that
have played snaps on bad A&M teams, but none are front-line guys
with the possible exception of Hightower, who has been up and down.
Appel and Carter have been solid.

2002

#4 - QB - Reggie McNeal
#21 - Ath - L'Tydrick Riley
#28 - LB - Archie McDaniel
#41 - Lb - Kelvin Flood
#47 - RB - Courtney Lewis
#51 - DE - Brian Ellis
#54 - DT - Brandon Fails
#58 - TE - Quinlan Germany
#75 - K - Todd Pegram
#79 - Ath - Brandon Leone
#84 - WR - Chad Schroder

Overview:
McNeal was an easy selection for the top five, but few of the other
guys have emerged as good D1 players...maybe only Lewis and Pegram.
Others have played some, but not distiguised themselves on bad A&M
teams.

2003

#3 - OL - Jorrie Adams
#7 - LB - Justin warren
#12 - DE - Jason Jack
#22 - LB - Lamar Mitchell
#26 - DB - Stephen Hodge
#32 - LB - Ta Ta Thompson
#39 - OL - Cody wallace
#40 - TE - Joey Thomas
#44 - OL - Corey Clark
#45 - Wr - Earvin Taylor
#50 - DE - Chris Harrington
#51 - DB - Bdoerick Newton
#61 - RB - Derrick brown
#62 - DT - Tate Pittman
#80 - CB - John kelly
#97 - RB - Chris Alexander

Overview:
Too early to really know for sure on this class, but there are few
difference makers at this point. Warren and Jack are damn good players,
but some of the of the guys are still in the developmental phase.
Others are just not very good or have already left the program,
including the best prospect in the class.

2004

#3 - QB - Stephen Mcgee
#6 - DT - William Morrisey
#14 - DE - Chris Smith
#24 - Ath - DJ Davis
#54 - DB - Danny Gorrer
#56 - WR - Kerry Franks
#65 - QB - Jordan Chambliss
#69 - DE - Cyril Obiozor
#87 - LB - Mark Young
#90 - CB - Quentin Gardner
#91 - TE - Amos Gbunblee

Overview: Waaaay to early, but Franks is already a good player.

Overall,
it looks like the top players that are rated in the top 25 have been
very good for the most part, but after that, I might have had most of
the rest of their guys overrated.

Thoughts?














I think it helps to have some parameters for this question

What are reasonable expectations for a recruit who is top 5, 10 or 50? I'm not sure I know the answer to that. Its the kind of thing we seem to just consider on the fly.

Do you overrate them? In a manner, yes - but it has a lot more to do with external factors and the nature of recruiting lists than it does you.

The fact is that aggy has done terribly from an attrition/bust standpoint. Any recruit that leaves the program after a year or two is going to be overrated no matter how high or low he is on your top 100. They've had a lot of those.

Secondly, the guys that have been good players for them have been a bit underrated at times. But again we get to the question of what are reasonable expectations for where guys are rated.

Guys like Jason Glenn, Ron Edwards, Robert Ferguson (maybe right because of grades), Sammy Davis, Terrance Kiel and Jaxon Appel (I don't think he's great but he might be a bit better than #38) were probably a bit underrated. Obviously you were spot on with guys like McNeal and Ty Warren.

Thirdly, the guys you did overrate were the same guys that everyone else overrated. I'm trying to think of a specific guy of theirs that you had jacked up way above the norm and I'm coming up blank. Again - good job by you and from what I can tell your accuracy regarding their recruits appears to be trending towards more accurate as time goes on - but I don't think you overrate them relative to other recruiting analysts.


Seriously though, what does a top 5, 10 or whatever type player have to do to either meet or exceed expectations?
 
Well, it's well-documented how Sherrill did so well. Akers's recruiting was sucking wind the latter part of his years here while $herrill'$ was cranking up. RC benefitted by our suckage. Unfortunately he failed to build on it throughout the mid-90's and then Brown turned it around in the span of 6 weeks from the time he was hired to his first class.

Hookem
 
Originally posted by RunRickyRun:

Originally posted by Ketchum:Do I overrate A&M recruits?
Yep! You're just Max Emfinger with a better haircut./images/smilie2.gif

Does that count as a haircut?



Seriously,

Ketch & Company do the best job out there of overall evaluation of talent (IMHO) but as these 'look backs' show, there are other factors involved as well.

Still, for all of Mack's critics who claim he 'doesn't develop talent', FlimFlam is setting a whole new standard of 'getting less out of more'.
 
Ketch,
I have to disagree with you about Warren. He was one of the Top LB prospects for his class. After 2 years, the guy has 90 career tackles.
 
Scholes... All I could think about man when I started reading Ketch's post was "THE FLOOD IS COMING!" Hell I was actually stupid enough to believe the Aggie hype. I remember thinking, "Damn they may ressurect the wrecking crew. Those kids must be really good, and if I have to listen to Aggies talking about maroon floods for four years I'm gonna hang myself." OH WELL, guess I dodged that bullet! (or rope)

HOOK EM
 
Originally posted by utgrad97:
Ketch,
I have to disagree with you about Warren. He
was one of the Top LB prospects for his class. After 2 years, the guy
has 90 career tackles.

I call Warren a damn good player, didn't I? He's not a difference maker though at this point.
 
that was an EXCELLENT flame Ketch. btw- you're right. weblair and their fans can bitch about your rankings all they want. ask them where their lists are. rivals as a whole tends to overrate aTm classes.
 
I think you do it because you feel that A&M recruits should be top 100 type players, and you might give them the benefit of the doubt.
 
TEX(AUS) or anyone who visits the webslimer pay-to-view board: I'd be curious to learn if this post by Ketch has been picked up and discussed over there??? Thanks!
 
Yes you do , but please don't let them know, because they
would really be whinning then. Really you could look at it, and
say they've had crappy coaching, yeah that sounds better.
This post was edited on 6/1 10:28 PM by sharphornif(GetAdminCookie() != 0) {document.write(' (Revisions[/URL])');}
 
Hey Ketch-- According to the NFL Scouts -- It seems like they think the better talent is at A&M if u look at recent NFL Drafts. Since these NFL guys are "experts" at what they do-- then I guess they do have better talent then Texas does.

~~~~~~~~~~~~ JJBoyd1001
 
SLC_Horn,

I think the Aggie players know in their heart that they must upset the good teams to win but it would be very unAggie-like to admit the truth.
They have to believe that the Twelfth Man will win for them. As long as they believe that BS we won't have to worry about them.
 
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