What will Oklahoma State football need to upset Texas for Big 12 title? Here are five keys
Scott WrightThe Oklahoman
STILLWATER — Oklahoma State has owned its series against Texas in recent years with nine wins in the last 13 meetings.
But none of that matters this week.
Coming off their rally for a 40-34 double-overtime win against BYU on Saturday, the 20th-ranked Cowboys (9-3) take on No. 7 Texas (11-1) in the Big 12 Championship Game, set for 11 a.m. Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, to be televised by ABC.
The Longhorns are chasing a College Football Playoff spot and are 11.5-point favorites against a Cowboy squad that has won four times as underdogs this season. That includes the upset of Kansas State, which was a 12.5-point favorite on Oct. 6.
But this is a different environment against a Texas team that has been running hot since suffering its only loss of the season, to OU in early October.
What will it take for the Cowboys to pull the upset?
Here’s a look at five keys to an Oklahoma State victory in the Big 12 title game.
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Start fast
When the Cowboys were playing their best football, they were scoring early, and usually touchdowns. During their five-game win streak, they scored on the first possession of each with four touchdowns and a field goal.Saturday looked like it might be one of those days, but OSU’s first two possessions ended in field goals, and the offense stalled from there.
So that makes three straight games with mediocre starts, and though the Cowboys overcame two of them, doing that against Texas is too big a gamble.
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Throw the ball
The Cowboy offense excels when it is balanced, but that could be a challenge this week. OSU quarterback Alan Bowman will have more on his shoulders than at any point this season, because Texas contains the run at an elite level.The Horns are giving up 85.0 yards per game on the ground, and even though OSU has the nation’s top running back, they haven’t faced anything like what Texas puts in the box.
Ollie Gordon II is the only running back in the country with more than 1,500 rushing yards, now sitting at 1,580 with 20 touchdowns. But Texas will make him work for his production.
That said, the Horns have been average at best against the pass, giving up 240.1 yards per game through the air. So Bowman and the Cowboy receivers need to attack the Texas secondary to keep the offense moving.
Complicating things even more, Texas has the most sacks in the Big 12 with 31 through 12 games. OSU has allowed just four sacks in the last nine games, but still, the pressure will be on the Cowboy offensive line in every aspect this week.
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Limit big plays
Sure, it sounds obvious, but this continues to be a major struggle for the OSU defense.BYU had four plays of 24 yards or more, though this was a little more unique than some of the other big-play issues the Cowboys have faced.
One of the plays was on a fake punt, and another was a deep throw into double coverage in which quarterback Jake Retzlaff made a perfect throw to Keanu Hill.
But the concern still lingers. The Horns have playmakers at receiver, running back and tight end with an experienced quarterback running the show. So they’re capable of balance, and that has been the most dangerous threat for OSU.
The Cowboy safeties in particular will be in stressful situations because of their need to been involved with both the run and the pass.
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Take advantage of penalties
Only one Big 12 team has been penalized less than OSU this season, averaging 5.2 penalties for 42.3 yards per game. Only four Big 12 teams have been penalized more than Texas, which is at 6.3 penalties for 49.8 yards per game.OSU coach Mike Gundy counts those as “hidden yards,” the yardage that doesn’t show up for the offense or defense but can sway a game. OSU has been strong in taking advantage of hidden yards, and penalties will provide yet another opportunity for that.
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Don’t settle for field goals
Another obvious-sounding one, but the Cowboys have had more red-zone trips end in field goals than any team in the Big 12.Conversely, the Longhorns have the best red-zone defense in the league, giving up just 13 touchdowns and nine field goals in 32 opportunities.
OSU has failed to score just seven times in 54 red-zone trips with 30 touchdowns and 17 field goals. But it’s going to take touchdowns to keep the Cowboys’ Big 12 title hopes afloat.
Scott Wright covers Oklahoma State athletics for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Scott? He can be reached atswright@oklahoman.com or on Twitter at@ScottWrightOK. Sign up forthe Oklahoma State Cowboys newsletter to access more OSU coverage. Support Scott’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasinga digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com or by using the link at the top of this page.
