Vegas has ND -10 over UT at home.

[Son of Wasatch]

Lets see if I can do the same thing.

QB - Shane Buechele / Jerrod Heard / Tyrone Swoops - Unknown to Bad - This team will go as the QB situation goes.

RB - D'onta Foreman - GREAT - He is the full package
RB - Chris Warren - GREAT - Might have more talent than Foreman

TE - Caleb Bluiett - VERY GOOD - Great blocker, very good hands, and just scratching the surface of learning to play the position.

OT - Kent Perkins - Good - He has NFL ability but hasn't always played to his potential.
OG - Patrick Vahe - GREAT - Freshmen AA he is a devastating run blocker with a mean streak
C - Zach Shackleford - UNKNOWN - He is a true freshmen and will likely be the weak link on this line, but he is smart with a nasty streak in him as well.
OG - Brandon Hodges - FAIR - He has come a long way, and played well during spring, but he has a lot to prove.
OT - Connor Williams - GREAT - I dare say the best olinemen Texas has had in probably 15 years. He is destined to be a very high 1st round draft pick.

WR - John Burt - GREAT - Very high NFL ability, reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin with his ability to physically dominate a DB.
WR - Armani Foreman - GOOD - He is fast and polished route runner, but he needs to work on his concentration.
WR - Collin Johnson - GREAT - The word "great" might be an understatement, he is a true freshmen, but the tools he possesses remind me of Roy Williams. Once he gets used to the college game, he will dominate.

Defense to come later...

 

[TheDecker]

You don't listen....you're more stubborn then an old bull. Let's just say weather won't be a problem and forget about it and let's just talk football. I speak for myself when I say no more weather talk. We can have weather talk when the actual game starts, fair enough?

I'm obviously on board.

Please note where I suggested just that (~3 posts ago) and tried to shift the focus back to football.

id much rather talk about the football...I'm not returning to Austin in August for the weather!!

 

[TheDecker]

Lets see if I can do the same thing.

QB - Shane Buechele / Jerrod Heard / Tyrone Swoops - Unknown to Bad - This team will go as the QB situation goes.

RB - D'onta Foreman - GREAT - He is the full package
RB - Chris Warren - GREAT - Might have more talent than Foreman

TE - Caleb Bluiett - VERY GOOD - Great blocker, very good hands, and just scratching the surface of learning to play the position.

OT - Kent Perkins - Good - He has NFL ability but hasn't always played to his potential.
OG - Patrick Vahe - GREAT - Freshmen AA he is a devastating run blocker with a mean streak
C - Zach Shackleford - UNKNOWN - He is a true freshmen and will likely be the weak link on this line, but he is smart with a nasty streak in him as well.
OG - Brandon Hodges - FAIR - He has come a long way, and played well during spring, but he has a lot to prove.
OT - Connor Williams - GREAT - I dare say the best olinemen Texas has had in probably 15 years. He is destined to be a very high 1st round draft pick.

WR - John Burt - GREAT - Very high NFL ability, reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin with his ability to physically dominate a DB.
WR - Armani Foreman - GOOD - He is fast and polished route runner, but he needs to work on his concentration.
WR - Collin Johnson - GREAT - The word "great" might be an understatement, he is a true freshmen, but the tools he possesses remind me of Roy Williams. Once he gets used to the college game, he will dominate.

Defense to come later...

Good stuff...always interesting to discuss, debate, evaluate, etc.

But what I was actually trying to spark in that evaluation (due to the weather discussion) was the relative quality of the "next man in" at each position

For example, at RB, most teams expect to get significant snaps from 2 payers in a standard game. So if the "heat affect" takes 1 of those Top2 RBs out with cramping, what's the relative quality of RB #3
(On the same rating scale)

Same idea for WR #4, OT #3, DE #3, etc.

The position/depth-chart for each player that I listed is before the names of the player(s)

For reference, I would ranked players on ND that I see relatively comparable to Buchele or Shackleford as "Concerning" because despite talent, you're talking about a True Frosh starting by default (after injury)

An example was D. Hayes, who was a 5* DE/OLB who EE'd at ND...but I don't see how you could be anything but concerned forcing a True Frosh into the starting lineup...since you trally don't know what you'll get.

Players like Kent Perkins were what I was classifying as "Solid". Where you're not worried about them and they could start, but they haven't convinced you they'll be reliable/quality starters at their positions.

Players you're ready to put in as reliable, high quality starters...if there is an injury that forced them into the field...would fall into the good/great categories.

For ND, GREAT was QB Zaire (if Kizer was injured) and GOOD was mainly players that started (or would have started) in 2015 who are depth becuAse of other players returning from injury (NT Cage, TE Smythe, CB Crawford, etc.)



Can you try your hand at that kind of listing?

 

[RoboCocks21]

I'm obviously on board.

Please note where I suggested just that (~3 posts ago) and tried to shift the focus back to football.

id much rather talk about the football...I'm not returning to Austin in August for the weather!!

I was referring to that actually. But I get it and probably most others except for some critters here. Offically 99 days till kick off!

 

[speedstrength]

Those are the daily highs?
Or the temps at 7pm?
Or at 9pm?
Or 11pm?

Like I said, I posted the actual statistical average of high, low, few pint, humidity, etc.

We're looking at it likely (statistically) being in the 80's at kickoff, with tempatures obviously dropping throughout the game.

Again, based on actual data, the tampathre during game time isn't likely to be something that's uncommon for afternoons in Indiana.

That's just the way it is

Sorry bud

No you posted the average high for the month of September. Big difference. I went back and looked there is no way to look up the historical averages for a specific week but since you want the game time temps here you go. (Weather Underground post times at 51 minutes on the hour so all times are 6:51 PM)

2015 91
2014 84 (rain)
2013 97
2012 98
2011 97
2010 87
2009 69 (heavy thunderstorm)
2008 91
2007 73 (rain)
2006 84 (rain)
2005 91
2004 87
2003 91
2002 90
2001 78 (rain)
2000 106 got down to 91 at 11:53 PM
1999 80 (rain)

That's as far back as the hourly data goes back on weather underground. Looks like unless there is rain its going to be at least 90 at kickoff which means 100-105 on the field. Cant remember it getting anywhere near 100 when I was in Indy.

 

[TheDecker]

No you posted the average high for the month of September. Big difference. I went back and looked there is no way to look up the historical averages for a specific week but since you want the game time temps here you go. (Weather Underground post times at 51 minutes on the hour so all times are 6:51 PM)

2015 91
2014 84 (rain)
2013 97
2012 98
2011 97
2010 87
2009 69 (heavy thunderstorm)
2008 91
2007 73 (rain)
2006 84 (rain)
2005 91
2004 87
2003 91
2002 90
2001 78 (rain)
2000 106 got down to 91 at 11:53 PM
1999 80 (rain)

That's as far back as the hourly data goes back on weather underground. Looks like unless there is rain its going to be at least 90 at kickoff which means 100-105 on the field. Cant remember it getting anywhere near 100 when I was in Indy.

Even if we accept the tempatures for a single hour of a single day to be a statistically dingo can't sample (it's not, a larger average is much better)...

You data suggests that several things:

1. There is about a 50% chance it's in the 80's at kickoff
(Common weather for Indiana)

2. There is about a 50% chance it's in the 90's at kickoff
(Less common in Indiana but something that happens several times every year)

3. There is a greater chance it's in the 70's at kickoff than there is that it's in the 100's

So all your data set really shows is exactly what be been say.....at kickoff the weather is likely (statistically) to be fairly comparable to mid-day summer weather in Indiana.

And if you research the 11pm tempatures (likely around when the game will be ending) you'll see that the tempatures are even more in line with Indiana weather.

The night weather in Texas isn't going to be some kind of tempature that will shock NDs players.

Thus, the weather isn't likely to be a major factor in this game.

 

[speedstrength]

Since no website has any aggregate weekly historical data I did my own. Not a climate scientist but I will lay out my methods. I went and looked at a 5 day window and got the temps at 6:51 PM from 2005-2015 and 6:53 PM from 1999 to 2004 from Sept 2nd to Sept 6th. I coded that data as 1 clear, 2 cloudy/overcast, 3 rain. That gave me 85 data points. I used SPSS to do a general linear model. Based on the data in that date range you are looking at a game time temp of around 92 degrees at kickoff, subtract about 4.5 cloudy/overcast, and about 12 for rain. Based on the model you are at around 60% clear, 23% cloudy, and around 17% rainy.

 

[TheDecker]

Since no website has any aggregate weekly historical data I did my own. Not a climate scientist but I will lay out my methods. I went and looked at a 5 day window and got the temps at 6:51 PM from 2005-2015 and 6:53 PM from 1999 to 2004 from Sept 2nd to Sept 6th. I coded that data as 1 clear, 2 cloudy/overcast, 3 rain. That gave me 85 data points. I used SPSS to do a general linear model. Based on the data in that date range you are looking at a game time temp of around 92 degrees at kickoff, subtract about 4.5 cloudy/overcast, and about 12 for rain. Based on the model you are at around 60% clear, 23% cloudy, and around 17% rainy.

Just accepting those as facts since you've already done this research... And you don't strike me as someone who would lie to prove a point like this (meant to be a compliment)

Your own model shows an average effective tempature in the 80's

.6 x (92 - 0) = 55.2
.23 x (92 - 4.5) = 20.125
.17 x (92 - 12) = 13.6

55.2 + 20.125 + 13.6 = 88.8925

Average effective Temp:
~89 Degrees
(at kickoff)


So this has been my point all along...statistically, we're looking at weather likely being somewhat comparable at kickoff to mid-day weather in Indiana (likely in the 80s) with temps then falling throughout the game.

The reality is that this kind of weather isn't something that's uncommon in Indiana or that the ND players haven't seen before

Thus, the weather isn't likely (statistically) to be a significant factor in this game

 

[TheDecker]

So now that your own data has bourn out exactly what I've been saying this whole time.....can we FINALLY move on from the weather topic?

I don't know how much more in depth we can possibly discuss it than what we just didn't....prior to the games at forecast

 

[speedstrength]

great so then add the 10-15 degrees and you are looking at temp of around 100 on the turf at kickoff and in the 90's for most of the game

 

[TheDecker]

great so then add the 10-15 degrees and you are looking at temp of around 100 on the turf at kickoff and in the 90's for most of the game

Does the field turf in Texas heat up 10-15 degrees more than the field turf in Indiana?

Because that's the only way that would matter...since NDs practice facilities are field truf as well.
(As is the field itself, as of the last couple years...which is also at the bottom of a large bowl)

 

[TheDecker]

Again, I've never said it won't be hot, or that players/coaches won't have to work to stay hydrated, or that the medical staff won't take precautions or have a plan in place.

All I've said (over and over and over again) is that statistically the game time weather in Austin won't be that different from weather that we frequently see at mid-day in Indiana...and thus it's unlikely to have a significant impact on the game.

You've gone through a lot of statistical data analysis.....to completely prove my point for me.

So now that my point has been proven/validated by your own data and analysis.............are we finally ready to let this go??

 

[speedstrength]

It takes about 2 weeks to acclimate to the heat. The biggest thing in term of heat stress is the ability to acclimate to produce more dilute sweat thereby mitigating the electrolyte loss during long term exercise. Unless ND is going to be training in 90+ degree weather for 9-14 consecutive days the acclimation won't happen which puts them at a greater risk of cramping. Saying heat won't be a factor is just ignorant. 100% at least one ND player will go to the locker room for an IV. Will it make a difference probably not but it could and it's myopic not to even consider the possibility.

 

[TheDecker]

It takes about 2 weeks to acclimate to the heat. The biggest thing in term of heat stress is the ability to acclimate to produce more dilute sweat thereby mitigating the electrolyte loss during long term exercise. Unless ND is going to be training in 90+ degree weather for 9-14 consecutive days the acclimation won't happen which puts them at a greater risk of cramping. Saying heat won't be a factor is just ignorant. 100% at least one ND player will go to the locker room for an IV. Will it make a difference probably not but it could and it's myopic not to even consider the possibility.

With one argument about weather/heat soundly defeated....we switch to a new argument.

With the game time tempature being similar to midday tempatures in Indiana...and ND having our fall camp mainly during the midday (especially during our two-a-days), I think we should be pretty well adjusted.

Again, night time (game time) tempature in Austin just isn't different enough from mid-day tempatures in Indiana for it to be a significant concern.

You might not like the fact that this is what the facts/stats support.....but your own research and analysis shows it

At this point, the debate is over. The facts have been thoroughly established (largely by you) and have completely validated everything been saying.

It's time to accept the only fact supported conclusion and move on.

 

[speedstrength]

what do you mean soundly defeated. Its most likely 20 degrees hotter during the game then when ND is going through their practice sessions.

Weather in SB in August

2015 Monthly average 80 1 day at 89+
2014 Monthly average 81 1 day at 89+
2013 Monthly average 82 2 days at 89+
2012 Monthly average 81 4 days at 89+ 13 days when in didn't even break 80
2011 Monthly average 83 3 days at 89+
2010 Monthly average 82 2 days at 89+
2009 Monthly average 83 2 days at 89 + 20 days when it didn't even break 80
2008 Monthly average 80 0 days 89+
2007 Monthly average 82 2 days 89+
2006 Monthly average 85 2 days 89 +

I mean I know I am a dumb Texan but I do have a PhD, I am currently an Exercise Science Professor and I have 20+ years, playing, teaching and coaching in Texas and 1 year coaching in Indiana, (2008). Could you use really simple terms and explain to me how the average monthly temps an approximate practice times will provide suitable exposure to allow the physiological processes to occur that lead to acclimation to prolonged exercise at temps in the 95-100 degree range.

 

[TheDecker]

Well there are a few things here.

1. It won't be prolonged exposure to 95-100 degree weather.
(Statistically)

2. It will be prolonged exposure to ~85 degree weather
(Statisitcally)

3. The Indiana averages you posted yourself show a very similar tempature set to what your own anayalsis of the game time weather in Austin.

4. You don't get to add 15 degrees for the field turf tempature in Austin but then not add that same 15 degrees for the field turf tempature in Indiana (with ND practicing in field turf as well)

5. From the average effective tempature of 89 degrees (statistically) that your own analysis predicts for kickoff...the temp will continually drop throughout the game

6. This means that most of the ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS/PRECIDITIONS is Statisitcally likely to be played in and effective temp in the mid/low 80s or even the high 70s

7. With Indiana having average midday tempatures approximately in this range (statistically) ND should be well adjusted to the game time tempature in Austin


Again, your own research and analysis have completely proven and validated my point for me.

Congrats on the PH.D., but your claims have been soundly defeat...primarily by yourself

It's time for you to finally accept he statically based conclusion that you've been helping to prove here....and move on.

At this point, the "weather debate" is over and you've proven that the game
time weather in in Austin is statistically likely to be quite similar to mid-day temps in Indiana

Thanks for all the help proving my pint beyond a shadow of a doubt

 

[NDAFArly]

I would love to talk football, but everyone wants to talk weather so we talked weather.

As for the two questions posed to me, I will answer them:
1. Single point analysis from 20 years ago? We gave large samples of data that were refuted, so I gave the only reference point involving ND's reaction to Texas in September. That's called EBA (Evidence Based Analysis) which comes from evidence based medicine, which says throw out what we think & just look at what has actually happened before. (I taught epidemiology at Indiana School of Medicine)

2. If you lived any time in Texas? I was stationed in Texas while in the military further south than Austin. I am well aware of the weather. It never bothered me one bit the way the weather in Florida did.

Now let's get serious about actual football.
Notre Dame is probably two scores better on the field. ND is deeper in almost every position & wears down Texas in the Austin heat.
My prediction:
ND 30 Texas 17

 

[NDAFArly]

So let's here some score predictions & how you think it goes down?

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

Like a buncha damn weathermen on TV, should be talking about Texas winning and whipping that ass, the weather don't mean shit, its whoever comes to play and wants to win the most, Texas by 10 and if "THE Weather" is good and the fans screaming add 3 more points, personally I hope they all get the shits at the hotel from before the game...I would stock their rooms with Corpus Christi water for nothing


Hook'em

 

[speedstrength]

Well there are a few things here.

1. It won't be prolonged exposure to 95-100 degree weather.
(Statistically)

2. It will be prolonged exposure to ~85 degree weather
(Statisitcally)

3. The Indiana averages you posted yourself show a very similar tempature set to what your own anayalsis of the game time weather in Austin.

4. You don't get to add 15 degrees for the field turf tempature in Austin but then not add that same 15 degrees for the field turf tempature in Indiana (with ND practicing in field turf as well)

5. From the average effective tempature of 89 degrees (statistically) that your own analysis predicts for kickoff...the temp will continually drop throughout the game

6. This means that most of the ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS/PRECIDITIONS is Statisitcally likely to be played in and effective temp in the mid/low 80s or even the high 70s

7. With Indiana having average midday tempatures approximately in this range (statistically) ND should be well adjusted to the game time tempature in Austin


Again, your own research and analysis have completely proven and validated my point for me.

Congrats on the PH.D., but your claims have been soundly defeat...primarily by yourself

It's time for you to finally accept he statically based conclusion that you've been helping to prove here....and move on.

At this point, the "weather debate" is over and you've proven that the game
time weather in in Austin is statistically likely to be quite similar to mid-day temps in Indiana

Thanks for all the help proving my pint beyond a shadow of a doubt

Average highs in the the low 80s in SB and Average highs in the the low 90s at game time in Austin. Yup that's the same weather. If ND practices in the morning or night during 2 a days most likely practicing in 70 degree weather. Yup that's similar to what they are going to be facing in Austin. How could I be so dumb. Training in 70 degree weather does increase sensitivity to aldosterone. Oh wait it doesn't work that way it actually takes 9-14 of prolonged exercise at 90+ degree weather to start altering the composition of sweat. Please tell me when ND will be practicing in those conditions. I swear you are like the under grad who gets a question on a test wrong but waste my office hours telling me possible ways you could be right.

 

[speedstrength]

Regardless of acclimation status athletes will lose 1.5-2 L of sweat per hour. Unacclimated individuals will excrete approximately 90 mmol/L of Na and 65 mmol/L of Cl-. Acclimated individuals will secrete about 35 mmol/L of Na and 30 mmol/L of Cl-. Most guys should be able to absorb enough Na and Cl- if they are drinking electrolyte solutions every 15 minutes. ND will not be working out in temps that lead to the adaption that causes increased retention of electrolytes. Will it make a difference. For most it won't matter one bit as long as they are drinking. For some it will matter but that's what IVs are for. There is a very slim chance that even with IVs one or two guys might get taken out by the heat but thats doubtful.

The biggest problem is the amount of snaps that the twos are going to have to take. In a cooler game a 2 might take 5-10 snaps where in this game 15-20 snaps. This hurts us way more than ND especially DT and LB.

 

[RoboCocks21]

Like a buncha damn weathermen on TV, should be talking about Texas winning and whipping that ass, the weather don't mean shit, its whoever comes to play and wants to win the most, Texas by 10 and if "THE Weather" is good and the fans screaming add 3 more points, personally I hope they all get the shits at the hotel from before the game...I would stock their rooms with Corpus Christi water for nothing


Hook'em

Special spring water from Corpus Christi in a nice bottle with a nice label would be nice complementary water from the hotel.

Hook 'Em

 

[speedstrength]

Special spring water from Corpus Christi in a nice bottle with a nice label would be nice complementary water from the hotel.

Hook 'Em

yeah my family and I took a trip to mustang island. I didn't drink the water just took a shower in the hotel to wash off the sand and my wife and I ended up getting sick. fun times.

 

[RoboCocks21]

yeah my family and I took a trip to mustang island. I didn't drink the water just took a shower in the hotel to wash off the sand and my wife and I ended up getting sick. fun times.

Sorry to hear that. Will definitely be staying away for a long time. Going there once was good enough for me.

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

yeah my family and I took a trip to mustang island. I didn't drink the water just took a shower in the hotel to wash off the sand and my wife and I ended up getting sick. fun times.

Chlorine in water, not fun


Hook'em

 

[speedstrength]

We went last weekend. When did they put chlorine in the water?

By the way if this game was played in the coastal bend or golden triangle we would have a huge advantage. I don't know how you guys deal with that humidity.

 

[TheDecker]

Average highs in the the low 80s in SB and Average highs in the the low 90s at game time in Austin. Yup that's the same weather. If ND practices in the morning or night during 2 a days most likely practicing in 70 degree weather. Yup that's similar to what they are going to be facing in Austin. How could I be so dumb. Training in 70 degree weather does increase sensitivity to aldosterone. Oh wait it doesn't work that way it actually takes 9-14 of prolonged exercise at 90+ degree weather to start altering the composition of sweat. Please tell me when ND will be practicing in those conditions. I swear you are like the under grad who gets a question on a test wrong but waste my office hours telling me possible ways you could be right.

It's historical that you think ND will be practicing in the 70's and/or that you think the majority of the game will be played in the 90's after all of that discussion.

I can see why you're stuck in exercise "science" and teaching at tier 4 schools, if this is your ability to process information.

The 5-10 degree difference between NDs practice temp and likely game temp is what's causin you to go off on this temper tantrum...even after you've proven yourself wrong.

I'm sorry buddy, but you've literally proven yourself wrong.

Like I've said the whole time, the game time temp won't be that different than practice temps at ND
(High 80s instead of low 80s)

It's hysterical to watch you stomp your feet in denial here though!!

 

[TheDecker]

Regardless of acclimation status athletes will lose 1.5-2 L of sweat per hour. Unacclimated individuals will excrete approximately 90 mmol/L of Na and 65 mmol/L of Cl-. Acclimated individuals will secrete about 35 mmol/L of Na and 30 mmol/L of Cl-. Most guys should be able to absorb enough Na and Cl- if they are drinking electrolyte solutions every 15 minutes. ND will not be working out in temps that lead to the adaption that causes increased retention of electrolytes. Will it make a difference. For most it won't matter one bit as long as they are drinking. For some it will matter but that's what IVs are for. There is a very slim chance that even with IVs one or two guys might get taken out by the heat but thats doubtful.

The biggest problem is the amount of snaps that the twos are going to have to take. In a cooler game a 2 might take 5-10 snaps where in this game 15-20 snaps. This hurts us way more than ND especially DT and LB.

Yes, I'm sure that the 5 degree difference from what the majority of the game will be played in relative to the average mid day temps in Indiana will really affect acclimation.

Let's get a link to the scholarly article noting the major affect that 5 degrees has on the electrolyte excretion by athletes

I can't wait to see this...

 

[NDAFArly]

So nobody has a score prediction?

In South Bend Weather, ND 38 Texas 3 (I'm cheating)
In Austin Weather ND 30 Texas 17

I gave my score prediction for both.
Anybody else?

 

[IrishBlooded]

Like I said in the other thread, I can hear the excuses now "ND won because it wasn't hot enough out"