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Texas Opponents

So I figure we need all of our opponents to win some games so the “easy schedule” narrative slows down some.

Colorado St. - beat Wyoming to become bowl eligible

ULM - they suck. Might never win again. Lost to Auburn

UTSA - beat North Texas

Michigan - bye

Mississippi State - bye

Vandy - Bye

OU - Bye

Florida - Leading LSU currently (would be big as LSU is aggy’s best win)

Georgia - vs. Tennessee tonight

Kentucky - crushing Mercer

Aggy - vs New Mexico St. tonight
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Can we be honest about QE

It was a huge red flag how he left a proud program high and dry in high school, how he left Ohio State, and now the social media drama with the chick in his audition year for the NFL and a model citizen backup QB nipping at heels. Very unbecoming behavior for QB1 and The University of Texas. We’ve looked passed a lot of this but if this was an aggy/sooner QB we’d be flaming him hard.

Passing yards per attempt - the reality

Here are the game-by-game ranks (minimum 10 attempts)

1. Arch vs UTSA - 18.6
2. Quinn vs UTSA - 11.6
3. Arch vs MSU - 10.5
4. Quinn vs CSU - 9.6
5. Arch vs ULM - 8.9
6. Quinn vs Vandy - 7.8
7. Quinn vs OU - 6.9
8. Quinn vs Michigan - 6.8
9. Quinn vs Georgia - 4.9

Here’s the problem with the “short field” when Quinn is starting narrative. We have no idea how Arch would have performed the past three weeks. We just imagine him slinging it the way he did in his three games vs terrible defenses. Our four lowest YPAs have all been with Quinn starting BUT have been against by far the four toughest defenses we have faced.

Defensive ranks of opponents

1. Georgia - 19th
2. Michigan - 38th
3. Oklahoma - 41st
4. Vanderbilt - 47th
5. UTSA - 64th
6. ULM - 70th
7. CSA - 107th
8. MSU - 129th

The data backs up the decision to stick with Quinn. We are into the meat of our schedule, and we need to face the reality that offensive yards are going to continue to be tough to come by no matter who we start at QB.

We have the #1 ranked defense in the country, and we need to ride that unit. I’d say the main two priorities if we want a natty should be protecting the ball and winning field position. It’s going to take ugly wins to get the job done, and as a fanbase we should be good with that.

I expect Quinn and the offense to have a bounce back game vs Florida, and then the rest of the season will be a slugfest.

Texas w/o a clear path to SEC Championship - A&M vs LSU likely?

So...if you haven't seen mred's SEC Championship standings tiebreaker website...it is kind of shocking.

They have modeled all of the games played and you can choose winners of all remaining games. The biggest differentiator is the 2nd tiebreaker:

2. There's a three-way tie at the top and it looks like head-to-head record is being ignored. What's going on?
If three or more teams are tied, then round-robin record is only used if every tied team played all the other tied teams OR one team beat all the other teams OR one team lost to all the other teams.

Otherwise, it is ignored and we move to the next step.

See section 2.A.2. on the third page of the official SEC tiebreak procedure for this rule.

So...if no upsets and Texas beats A&M, it leaves A&M, Georgia and UT at 7-1...A&M and Georgia play:

1. Georgia (7 - 1)
With Texas A&M, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
With Georgia, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Below Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
3. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).

If we beat A&M...and they lose to, say, South Carolina...then we can go...

1. Georgia (7 - 1)
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
3. Alabama (6 - 2)
Above LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5313).
4. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
Above LSU based on head-to-head record (1-0).

If they lose to SCar and beat us...they go

1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Georgia (7 - 1)
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. LSU (6 - 2)
With Tennessee and Texas, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With Texas, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844).
4. Texas (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).

And...ironically...if LSU beats Alabama...and we win out.... the SEC Championship is A&M vs LSU

1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia, LSU, and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
2. LSU (7 - 1)
With Georgia and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
3. Georgia (7 - 1)
With LSU and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
With Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1)
With Georgia and LSU, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
With Georgia, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

Here is the link mred's SEC Championbship Predictor
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