Gonna need a lot of work. Figured I’d check in with the OB fam to see if a fellow Horn could help me out. I’d gladly take recommendations as well.

Thanks!

I’m looking for two tickets . Dm me

His analysis is top notch , no fool's gold , hype , carrot dangling.

nm

That would suck
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/texas-football-spring-game-severe-weather

I know this only affects a few of you, but has anyone else heard that Parking Garage B will not be available for football parking this season?

We've been parking there since the Tennis Center and a park were across the street. I'm old and cranky and I'd hate to have to learn a new tailgate routine.

We have limited inventory of seats for the inaugural Horns Up signature fundraising event celebrating the University of Texas student-athletes. A Night for Texas will be hosted by actor, comedian, and producer Shane Gillis and feature music from Ryan Bingham and the Texas Gentlemen and headliner Brooks & Dunn on May 18. Join Coach Sark, CDC, Texas Coaches, and our Texas student-athletes on the 50-yard line of Campbell-Williams Field at DKR for this star-studded event.

While the inventory lasts, for $2,500, you can join us for this unforgettable experience, all while supporting Texas student-athletes.

In addition, we have a few foursomes available for the Texas One Fund Golf Classic with Coach Sark on May 17 at The University of Golf Club. These limited spots are also offered at $2,500 per player, where teams will choose their guest player to join your foursome, including opportunities to play with Texas coaches, notable alums, celebrities, and more.

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I cannot even begin to summarize my thoughts here on the oral argument in Fischer that just ended.

But I will say that I'm going to redouble my efforts to understand and chart a path through the legal landscape of what will follow from a reversal.

Multiple Justices -- across the Court -- voiced concerns on multiple grounds about HOW the Govt is applying this statute based on the breadth of the definitions it is using in doing so.

And the reference to a short decision from last FRIDAY that seems to cut the legs out from under the Govt's position that 1512(c)(2) is a "stand alone" provision not contained at all by the language of (c)(1) was really telling.

Also, there were NUMEROUS concessions/ representations made by the Solicitor General about HOW the J6 cases are being prosecuted that are not entirely consistent with the outcomes.

The claims about mean and median sentences -- and the representation that after Block the GL ranges will be in the range of 6-20 months -- IGNORES completely what the sentences were based on the Govt arguments for nearly three years. Jake Chansley got a GL sentence of 41 months. THAT has been the standard. Shorter sentences have only resulted from some Judges departing below the GL range, ALWAYS contrary to the efforts made by the Govt.


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What sort of God would it be, who only pushed from without?
~~~~~~~~ Goethe

For the most part, we would prefer being led than pushed. When pushed, it's often our first response to push back, regardless of who or what is doing the pushing. We claim that we want to know God's Will for our lives---tell me what to do, give me a sign! But what if He's trying to tell us, and with all our pushing back, we miss both the message and the messenger? An unresolved feeling we have in our life about health, money, work, whatever, might be carrying a message. Maybe God His Ownself has applied a pinprick to our consciousness, "pushing" us from within. Those who are in a program of recovery learn to sharpen their ability to discern God's Will. Sometimes a niggling problem is a thinly disguised spiritual message, and if we stop trying so very hard to push back, we are far more likely to find room to grow wiser and stronger.

My prayer for us all this day is to set aside our knee-jerk habit of pushing back, at least for a while, to allow our hearts and minds to receive His messages.

Blessings,
NT
Isaiah 30:21
In memory of Allen Jones, who learned to stop pushing back quite so hard.

Obligatory



But I saw the tweet by Not The Bee and had never heard this before. Orangebloods often knows stuff way before I do, so perhaps this has been common knowledge.

Anywho…take a look.

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Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.

The data is well researched from my employer New American Funding's Research/Analytics Department.

Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.

As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".

The Highlights -

Quick Hit

News headlines continue to push bond, equity, commodity, and currency markets around. That’s nothing new, but what are the technical indicators telling us? In summary here’s what’s likely to continue in the near-term: bond yields, mortgage rates, gold, oil prices, and the U.S. dollar are likely to move higher. Meanwhile, the stock and crypto markets are likely to head lower. All markets remain heavily influenced by the uncertainty surrounding inflation, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy.

Feeling overwhelmed by news headlines lately? You’re not alone.

In June 1980, CNN became the world’s first 24-hour news network. With nearly 3,100 newsrooms in the United States today, it can be nearly impossible to not be influenced by the latest daily publications. If you see a dramatic local news story about a car theft in your area, it may cause you to feel anxious and vulnerable as you go through your day because the instance is fresh in your mind. You may even start obsessively searching for crime-related news in your area, forgetting everything else you saw on the news that morning. In reality, your chance of having your car stolen isn’t any higher than it was before you watched the news. Behavioral economists have dubbed this “the CNN effect”, but what they are referring to is salience bias, or the tendency to focus on items or information that are more noteworthy while ignoring those that don’t grab our attention.

However, individuals aren’t alone as markets are also vulnerable to salience bias pushing indicators higher and lower with every passing day of news headlines. This affect has only become more exacerbated thanks to trading algorithms that make decisions as close to real time as possible as they seek to maximize alpha. To remove some of these daily news influenced market fluctuations traders look to technical analysis which we dive into for key market indicators below.

10-Year Treasury & Mortgage Rates

As of today, some of the most popular technical indicators are flashing signs of a reversal in the 10-year treasury yield on the weekly candles which should translate to higher mortgage rates given their strong correlation.

Short-term (yields “should” move lower):

• Longer term trend line (yellow line below) – the 10-year back tested the long-term broken trend line tagging it perfectly today leading to some short-term resistance.
• Bollinger Bands (BB) – the 10-year broke above the upper Bollinger band, which measures two standard deviations above the 20-day simple moving average, indicating that yields are statistically high on a relative basis and should pull back in the short-term as the indicator adjusts to the increased volatility.

Long-term (yields “should” move higher):

• Relative Strength Index (RSI) – while the BB can be helpful for identifying overbought or oversold conditions (in this case the opposite since yields rise when prices fall) the RSI can be useful for spotting potential trend reversals. When the RSI is above 70 it indicates over bought (oversold here) and a reading below 30 indicates oversold (overbought here). As of the first of April, the RSI has bounced off the neutral point and has plenty of room to move higher before an obvious correction or consolidation is necessary to reset its future direction.
• Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) – the MACD is a momentum oscillator and is primarily designed to reveal changes in strength, direction, and duration of a trend. As of April first, the MACD crossed to the upside indicating that a new trend has emerged. Given the low base that it started from there is also plenty of room to run higher just as we saw happen the week of December 27, 2022, and May 22, 2023.

The technical indicators for 30-year mortgage rates are flashing similar signs that point to higher rates after remaining essentially flat since the start of the year.




Stock Market

Now that we know what to look for with regards to the technical indicators, here’s what they are signaling for the near-term direction of the stock market as measured by the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 has broken its longer-term trend line that started the last week of October 2023. The RSI has been flashing over bought levels since January 22, 2024, and the MACD has finally crossed to the downside. Adding these three indicators together equates to the stock market likely seeing a continuation in pulling back its all-time highs.

The question now is how far and how long the market will correct.

The next level of support that traders will be monitoring is down near 4,802, representing a further 4.37% sell off from the current level of 5,022. Once that level is hit, we will need to reassess, but most traders see the stock market ending the year higher due to history telling us that stock market tends to always outperform when we are in an election cycle with a sitting president running again, so there is no need to sell the farm just yet barring some unforeseen developments.




Another key stock market indicator to watch is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). This index provides the trading and investment world with a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors’ sentiment. In general, the VIX will rise when stocks fall, and decline when stocks rise. As of today, the VIX has started to move off its lows indicating a greater level of fear and uncertainty in the market, but it still has a lot of room to move higher before indicating tremendous uncertainty which is achieved with levels above 30, often associated with a bear market.




Commodity Markets

Unlike the weakness we are seeing in bond and stock markets, the price of gold continues to rally. The cause is heightened uncertainty around inflation, stretched equity market valuations that are being repriced to account for less fiscal accommodation and liquidity in the marketplace that would come from fed rate cuts, and elevated geopolitical tensions around the world leading investors to seek out safe-haven assets and boost returns.




The price of oil is another market indicator to keep an eye on. Surging oil prices tend to spell trouble for the economy, markets, and the Fed. They can drive up inflation, necessitate higher interest rates, and significantly dampen growth. Recently the trend higher in oil prices has not been the Feds friend and could make taming inflation even more problematic which is likely to occur if geopolitical risks intensify in places like the Middle east such as the conflict between Israel and Iran. However, as Reuters points out, “the success of the Israeli defense implies that the geopolitical risk has pulled back considerably” and “Iran saying it considers its retaliation to be over has further lowered the geopolitical temperature”.




Currency Markets

The next stop on our market indicators to watch is the less frequently discussed U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Increases or decreases in the fed funds rate have correlated fairly well with moves in the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus other currencies. When the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate, it typically increases interest rates throughout the economy, which tends to make the dollar stronger. A strong dollar is one of the few bright spots for taming inflation as it makes imports cheaper and as a result we see cheaper products in U.S. stores. The near-term trend of a stronger dollar is welcome news in the battle to fight inflation.




Crypto Markets (Bonus)

Finally, there is a the much-maligned king of the crypto markets, Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has recently pulled back from making a new all-time high. Although there are critics on both sides of the fence, the recent launch of Bitcoin ETF’s in the U.S. and approval of Ethereum ETF’s by Hong Kong, has led many to believe that the crypto flood gates have just been opened and legitimize the asset class in the eyes of the financial world. Furthermore, this may just be the tip of the crypto iceberg as BlackRock envisions “tokenizing” real world assets such as bonds, stocks, cultural assets, and even equity in real estate.



As of today, the cost of a new median priced home in the U.S. stood at 6.54 Bitcoin ($61,245 BTC price for a $400,500 priced home). That figure could get substantially lower by 2030 with price targets from institutional investment firm ARK Invest ranging from $1.3 million to $3.8 million.




With the “Bitcoin halvening” just days away, and history as our guide, it’s hard to imagine anything stopping Bitcoin from pushing higher. For many investing in crypto is seen as one of the best bets to achieve financial gains and potentially afford a home at these elevated home price levels. The younger generation is doing all they can to achieve homeownership and crypto seems just as good as “houses before spouses” or relying on your parents for a downpayment. The question now is, will the lending community take notice and action?




In summary

Here’s what’s likely to continue in the near-term: bond yields, mortgage rates, gold, oil prices, and the U.S. dollar are likely to move higher. Meanwhile, the stock and crypto markets are likely to head lower.

We’ll bookmark these technical indicators and see if they hold true.

Have an Amazing Upcoming Weekend!

Remember "Date The Rate & Marry The Home"!

Hook 'Em!

MH

Had a source confirm for me this morning that Arizona DT Bill Norton will visit the Texas this weekend after entering the Portal (On Texas Football was the first to confirm).

As we reported last week, there are very high expectations that Norton will transfer to Texas in a quest to play for former DC Johnny Nansen, who is now UT's current co-DC/LB coach.

Ironically, it was USC defensive tackle Bear Alexander that had been making plans to visit Texas on Saturday, but things have turned on that situation and he seems most likely to stick with USC after all of the noise from last week.

In terms of being a triple threat of: singing, shitting/pissing on people, and diddling kids, few people have achieved comparable accolades. Unfortunately for him, society frowns on one of those things, and now he’s in prison getting his asshole dilated.

His analysis is top notch , no fool's gold , hype , carrot dangling.

Guys - check your homeowners policy. My liberty mutual policy increased by $1500.

Switched to All State and price was $3300. That’s the same price my Liberty Mutual Bill has been the past 2 years. Now I got popped with a 2% deductible. Looks like all carriers are going to a 2% deductible.

Are you…

• Ready to leave the corporate Rat Race for the American Dream?
• Looking for a side hustle while working your current job?
• Wanting to diversify, build wealth, and/or leave a legacy?

Andy can help!!!
Andy is a franchise consultant (as well as franchise owner) and helps people find franchises that fit their skill sets, financial requirements, time to commit and more….
His services are 100% free and he’s here to help if you have any questions about business ownership.


Learn more about Andy and franchise ownership through these resources:
Andy's Story
Why a Franchise
Service Based vs Brick and Mortar
Semi Absentee Ownership
The Process and How It works


Andy Luedecke
www.MyPerfectFranchise.Net
p: 404-973-9901
e: andy@myperfectfranchise.net
Book time with me at: Andy's Calendar

*****

Texas is hosting UGA-to-Arizona DT transfer Bill Norton for the spring game this weekend, and there are reasons to believe that a pairing with the Horns could make plenty of sense for 2024 as Norton once again dips his toes in the portal. Not only is Norton's teammate Tiaoalii Savea from UA currently on the Texas roster, but his ex-DC Johnny Nansen is now in Austin, as well.

Did I mention that Texas' arguable biggest need right now is more quality depth (and really upgraded starter-level play) among the interior DL?

But how good is Norton?

I re-watched the Arizona games versus Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl and versus Washington earlier in the 2023 to get a feel as to how to answer that question. I chose those two games, because earlier in the offseason, those were the two games I charted of Savea upon learning of Texas' interest in bringing him on board, and thought an apples-to-apples comparison of the two might aid in bringing us some clarity.

- Bill Norton is a pure nose tackle. In these two games, he played 88% and the head up on the center or at the one-technique, 4% head-up on the guard (2-technique), and 8% one the guard's outside eye (3-technique).

- Bill Norton was used heavily in these games. He was a true, front-line starter for a very good Arizona defense in 2023. He played on 68.46% of snaps, which was a 15% greater snap share than Texas' most heavily deployed interior DL (T'Vondre Sweat) played in 2023 (55.33%). One issue with him playing so much is that he does get gassed and becomes ineffective.

- Bill Norton is an early-down iDL. He does not profile anything like a T'Vondre Sweat or a Byron Murphy with his upfield penetration and effect on the passer. He is usally (as in, almost always) off the field on 3rd downs, long down-and-distance and against four-minute offense.

- Bill Norton played a much better game versus Washington than he did in the bowl game versus Oklahoma. If you were to watch the game versus OU on its own, you would come away thinking there is no way that Norton is a take. You can watch it for yourself and just watch No.45 the whole time and I'm not sure anyone would disagree. It is from that game that we can see the downside of his overall play, whereas the UW game shows a lot of his most positive attributes (albeit mostly versus an undersized center in Parker Brailsford): he eats up a lot of space in the middle, he was much better holding up against double teams in that game as well, allowing superstar LB Jacob Manu (whose role Anthony Hill will be playing in next season in Nansen's scheme) to do Jacob Manu things. He also had his only sack of the season in that game, a rare instance against Michael Penix in 2023. He also drew a holding penalty when Brailsford had to take him on in a man-solo assignment.

- However, the Oklahoma game showed us a few flaws that need to be addressed, or at least accounted for: Inconsistent pad level through series, bulky and stiff versus inside-zone double teams and a total failure to move laterally while engaged. Very little production and an on/off motor. He loses his feet too often and struggles to stay off the ground against opposing cut blocks. The Oklahoma offense had lots of trouble with the Arizona defensive front and the Wildcats drew seven holding calls in the game, but Norton was not one of them, he also didn't have a hand in creating any of the Sooners' six turnovers. (By the way, I really hope Nansen brings the tradition of the turnover sword to Texas, it is awesome).



- Three missed tackles through two games. He missed them all in the same way: plays that set up as if they could have been nice run-stuffs where the running back was able to break the arm tackle of Norton. He needs to improve in disengaging the opposition with more power and creating more space to fit up his responsibility with more of his bulky and sturdy frame rather than an arm and a shoulder. That equates to one missed tackle per every 29.67 snaps. For comparison, here are some snaps-per-missed tackle numbers from the interior DL of the Texas 2023 defense: Sweat (207.5), Carter (100.5), Broughton (70.25), Bledsoe (80), Murphy (123.3), Collins (61).

- Since he plays nose tackle, Norton would be coming in to challenge Vernon Broughton. Let's have a look at the total snaps/production-caused for all Texas defenders since 2015 who have played at least 100 snaps in the given season and add in the numbers from Norton and Savea, based on this (admittedly rather small) two-game sample from 2023 in Arizona:

(Click Image to Enlarge)



- You see that Savea actually came out looking really good in this exercise, while Norton did not. However, in comparing Norton to Broughton, he did come away more efficiently per-snap over this sample than Broughton did in the 2023 season. And if you look at cockamamie PFF and compare the two players (who both coincidentally wear No.45 on their jersey), they have the exact same grade as run defenders (69.7, which is tied for 176th place among 545 college football qualifiers from 2023).

In the end, the Bill Norton versus Oklahoma would look to be a slight downgrade from the player Vernon Broughton was in 2023, while the Bill Norton versus Washington would appear to be a realtively significant upgrade to 2023 Broughton. On the whole, the numbers show that Norton is probably a slight upgrade on Broughton overall based on these two games, but likely not as big a potential shot-in-the-arm as a player like Savea could be poised to be. However, Savea's competition at 3-technique (Collins) is stiffer than Norton's would be in Broughton, giving Norton the potentially easier road to playing time in 2024 should he choose to come to Texas. He would provide immediate, viable depth at worst and could possibly start at best.

Putting all these factors together, it shows that Norton is a take. However, he is not the type of presence that would single-handedly overhaul the state of the current iDL totem pole for the Longhorns, and the search for continued iDL additions in the portal should continue.

posted

And they are beautiful golf shoes with a striking burnt orange saddle.
Footjoy.com/mens/shoes/MyJoys.
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Turns out all the new jobs are part-time. And none of them are going to natives.

Last month we got yet another "blockbuster" jobs report -- this time 300,000 new jobs.

And, once again, it's BS under the surface.We actually lost full-time jobs -- 6,000 of them.

And natives once again lost jobs. Making 6 full years of precisely zero job growth for native born Americans.

It's smoke and mirrors. And the people aren't buying it.

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At what point should a judge throw her in jail to let her cool off?

EDIT: Apologies, just saw article was already posted. 😳


Some good quotes. First time I've heard sark wants to retire at Texas. #LIKE