My apologies. This will be long again. It is a quick type and probably rambles more than usual. But, whatever. I was going to cancel my OB subscription. Then football started and I forgot. Last night it auto renewed. I’m going to get my moneys worth by word count if nothing else.
1. Shocking thought here. Texas is not as good as they looked against Alabama, nor as bad as they looked against Texas Tech.
Recency bias is a struggle for all of us. Watch the Alabama game and it is easy to forget the prior season(s). Watch the Texas Tech game and it is easy to forget Alabama. Hell, as we all know, watch a lead blown in the second half and it is easy to forget the first half.
We can’t be fans and completely avoid riding those emotional reactions. But it remains worth remembering that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem in the moment.
Most of us, myself included, need to take a deep breath, and relax. (At least for now.) This is why, or at least one reason, coaches spend so much time preaching to their teams to avoid social media and to never buy into what people outside the locker room think or say.
2. Holly hell! What was that?
I understand that it is important to never make too much of one single game performance. But that was pure….uh...that was unacceptable. The OL – previously appearing as an at least average D1 unit – was simply destroyed inside. The defensive game plan – if it made any sense to start, was never adjusted after the early results proved it to be ineffective. For some reason the offense never seemed willing to attack the edges and when it most needed to make a play and change momentum reverted to its most conservative options.
Just a couple of weeks ago many of us thought we saw signs of in-game defensive adjustments. Where did that go? Based on results coming into the game I understand why you would try to invite that TT QB to throw the ball. But after being burned repeatedly and watching him struggle consistently when pressured how do you not adjust?
IDK the answer. I’m sure there is one. It can’t be thinking the rush would be effective when sending three. Four were not likely to impact the play. Was it a lack of confidence in the back end of the defense? Could it have been somehow related to expected play calls?
None of that sounds like a reasonable answer to me.
The advantage for an offense is that they have the ball, call the play, and initiate the action. This allows the offense to be the aggressor and attack the defense.
My perception is that the best answer for a defense is to flip that advantage. Always play aggressively. Take the advantage away from the offense. I have always felt that dropping into coverage runs the risk of sucking the aggressiveness out of a defense. I think it can lead to playing a half step slower, just a little hesitant.
I mean, when was Texas last protecting a late big lead? I don’t need to ever see a safety blitz starting 20 yards from the LOS again. But attack. Always, always attack.
A week ago, I was happy to say that I finally thought we were seeing some defensive in-game adjustments. This week….IDK.
It seems clear that there are things the staff has been unwilling to ask of Hudson Card on his injured ankle. Fair enough. But don’t you have to expect that TT players and coaches are going to figure that out by the 2nd half? Don’t you have to think that you will need play calls ready to counter their defensive adjustments? All I know with any certainty is that the Texas offense was not fooling anyone and not good enough to just enforce their will.
Injuries hurt. Missed holding on TT hurt. In some cases, players were just not good enough. But this felt like a game that the coaches lost.
A few weeks ago, I watched Texas play Alabama. While watching I could see that the talent on the Alabama team, overall, was greater than Texas. A loss because of officiating was infuriating.
Saturday, I watched Texas play TT. While watching I could see that the talent on the Texas team, overall, was greater than TT. A loss to inferior talent was infuriating.
Which one bothered me more?
3. Would another half with Overshown on defense have been worth one more point, (or one less point for TT), in regulation?
I certainly don’t know. No one does. You can’t even look at his 2nd half performance and apply that to the 1st half hypothetically. It doesn’t work that way. Players have good and bad halves all the time. But knowing that a game went to overtime when the team’s best defender was not allowed to play does make you wonder. Is it possible that the UTSA refs cost Texas a game the next week?
It’s a pointless question at this point. But, in case you were wondering, yes – I am still pissed.
I’m still pissed about multiple calls in the game with Alabama. I have watched games not involving Texas with still more inexcusable and missed calls. It isn’t only my perspective as a Texas fan. College officials are not good at their job.
Oh, I know that there are some who are good. But there are clearly far too many who have no business being on the field.
What I can’t understand is how a multi-billion-dollar industry does not have full-time, dedicated, referees to govern play.
Of course, I have the same question for a lot of professional sports.
4. Something that could have won the game is better QB play.
I have a ton of respect for Hudson card right now. He is giving everything he has for the team. I wish he could have had this opportunity when healthy – both for him and for Texas. Everyone seems fairly confident that Texas could have beat Alabama with Quinn Ewers. I suspect they could have beat Alabama if Card didn’t get injured during that game.
I understand that all teams have injuries to overcome. But damn. How many teams are going to withstand injuries to their top two QBs? (Don’t give me examples. I know some too. The exception proves the rule, and all that.)
I think that with a healthy Card Texas beats Alabama and TT. Just that stupid close to being undefeated with a completely different set of expectations going forward. One twisted ankle. (Maybe. IMO.)
We are into our 13th season of “one twisted ankle”, or something else stupid. It is difficult to remember that the prior seasons are not a predictor for this one. At least as far as luck is concerned.
Further, the Mack Brown teams, Charlie Strong teams, and Tom Herman teams have nothing to do with this team. Even if you want to talk about Sark’s prior record as a head coach that was not at Texas, not with this staff or these players. He also has a lot of miles and experience under his belt since his last head coaching gig. Maybe he will prove to be the same guy he was before. But pointing to his past coaching record is really a false narrative.
Analogy is the weakest form of argument.
I know. I could argue the other side of that. But I believe that if Sark ultimately proves to be just another average head coach it will be because – well, that is statistically most likely. It is called average for a reason. I do not believe that his past record makes it inevitably so.
5. I think the worst kept secret around Texas football was that Quinn Ewers would start.
With Hudson Card and a healthy Casey Thompson scheduled to return for a second season in the same offensive system why would Sark recruit Quinn Ewers? God knows that scholarship could have been used elsewhere.
The answer is that Sark did not believe he could win with CT or HC. Otherwise, he wouldn’t put his eggs in the basket of someone who had never thrown a pass in a college football game.
Oh, I know there really was a competition. QE had to prove that he really was a better option. But make no mistake, that was always the plan.
I want to see what Sark can do with a healthy QE in conference play. If the offense can be productive and more consistent it will be a tremendous help to the defense.
But expect the inexperience of QE to also be a factor.
6. I see a lot of people arguing about what the problem is.
It’s the offense. No, it’s the defense. Its play calling. Its defensive scheme.
These things are not mutually exclusive. The refs vs Alabama were absolutely an issue, over and over. It is not excuse making to say that injuries have been an issue. (Top 2 QBs, most experienced OL, starting WR) 3rd down defense. Interior OL play. Play calling – on both sides. It doesn’t have to be just one thing. Any of those have the potential to cost you a game.
I have watched sports for my entire life, and I am old. But even when following very successful teams, championship caliber teams, I have never seen a fan base unable to find fault with something. I can remember my father and grandfather complaining about DRK, and certainly players on his teams. Jody Conradt is a member of virtually any basketball hall of fame you want to name. But many people, myself included, routinely questioned her decisions. Some of the things that I read about Cliff Gustafson made me blush.
I think that it is important – obviously barring some extreme circumstance – to make notes but withhold judgement until the season is over. Concerns are fair. Judgments are a problem. Beliefs are difficult to change even when evidence suggests that is appropriate.
But if you are drunk – well, then anything goes.
Side note…
Passing grades for me to this point in 2022…
Bijan Robinson
Roshon Johnson
Jordan Whittington
Kelvin Banks
Anthony Cook
Bert Auburn
Who else do you have?
7. I think that everyone understood that Texas would not go undefeated in 2022. Everyone understood that to expect an undefeated season would unrealistic.
An incredibly young OL. Even less experienced QBs – not just the starter, but the entire room. A defense that completely failed to pressure QBs in 2022 and never added an experienced pass rusher to the roster. A defense that allowed historic rushing and scoring averages to opponents in 2021 returning 7 of 11 starters.
The game against Alabama was not an expected win. Most people didn’t even think Texas had a chance. While I am pissed at the way it happened, I can’t fault anyone at Texas for that game. Without egregious buffoonery from the refs, and much to my surprise, they would have won. Ignore how it happened, how painful it was to watch, for a minute and just remember that this was predictable. Not a surprise.
Louisiana and UTSA may not have been spectacular performances, but they did turn into comfortable wins. You expect a little vanilla in those games. Vanilla worked. Fine.
That brings us to TT. A young, inexperienced team goes on the road for an early season game to play what will be the Super Bowl for their opponent. They go in with the QB injuries and a 1st half suspension that we have already discussed. This game has been circled on calendars in Lubbock for two years.
This is a game that Texas should have won. On the other hand, we all knew that Texas would not go undefeated in conference play this season. That a loss would come early seems a safe bet. That it would come on the road certainly more likely than at home.
It is predictable. Not surprising at all. And still infuriating and inexcusable. Again, they are not mutually exclusive.
8. In the off-season I posted literally thousands of words about how rare it is to see a P5 team improve defensive points allowed by as much as even 7 points per game. Expecting anyone to transform the Texas defense into a plus unit quickly was never realistic. We should be looking for signs of progress and gradual improvement over the full season.
TT felt like more of the same. Frustration is reasonable. Meltdowns are probably not.
There has been a lot of talk about GP being better than PK. Maybe he is. But if TCU would have fielded a plus defense in 2021 GP would probably still be there. His reputation as a defensive guru is well deserved. Still, he is not infallible, and PK also came to Texas with a stellar reputation. My eyes are wide open, and I absolutely have concerns. But for me TCU in 2021 is a reason to not panic completely with PK just yet.
In fairness, points per game is the most important defensive statistic. There are a lot of other measurements which contribute that result. But in the end, it’s all about points per game, no matter how you get there. Much of my previous analysis was around the rarity of a team dropping PPG by 7 points or more in a single season.
Currently Texas is allowing almost 10 points per game less than in 2021. I could post the defensive categories that I said I would be watching for signs of improvement. But that would just make this post longer and be even more depressing. 3rd down stops. Fumbles recovered. QB pressures and sacks. No. We don’t want to talk about those.
Yet PPG is down significantly. Maybe I never knew what I was talking about. Maybe Texas simply hasn’t reached the most challenging part of the schedule. You can look at that in whichever way makes you more comfortable.
(Even with last season’s shutout over Rice PPG for just the first four games is down a couple of points.)
Regardless, there is time for improvement. I hope for that. I know Texas needs to find defensive playmakers, get them on the field and turn them loose.
9. I see Texas as a team that should be able to use a short and intermediate passing game to open up other opportunities. If I were planning to defend Texas I would be terrified of Worthy, Whittington, Sanders and Robinson out of the backfield with quick, possession type passes. Set up the run, then play action. Help a young OL and crippled QB.
I haven’t seen any use of the middle of the field, much less any strategy that seems to acknowledge their limitations.
Other than one brief window against Alabama this has felt a lot like Tom Herman style stubbornness.
What am I missing?
10. I’m convinced that some coaches are best at maximizing the results of elite talent. I believe that is a specific skill set.
I’m also convinced that some coaches are best at maximizing results when they have a talent deficit. I believe that also to be a specific skill set.
The rarest coach, I believe, is the coach with both of those skills.
I’m not sure what Sark is relative to those skills. When I watch I wonder sometimes if he has overestimated the talent on his team.
I’m surprised by how predictable and “safe” Sark has been at Texas.
It’s not just play calls. When will we see some form of reverse, double pass, (God help us) a pass out of the wildcat, fake punt……anything?
I think players are better, more aggressive, more engaged when they are having fun. I think playing to win is more fun than playing safe. So, play to win the damn game.
I understand that the most fun is winning and frequently accomplished by not taking unnecessary risks. But never talking a risk and still struggling just seems silly.
What does any of that mean? Hell, I don’t know. It’s fall and I am overthinking Texas football, as usual. But, for now, I believe that I will choose to be optimistic….
1. Shocking thought here. Texas is not as good as they looked against Alabama, nor as bad as they looked against Texas Tech.
Recency bias is a struggle for all of us. Watch the Alabama game and it is easy to forget the prior season(s). Watch the Texas Tech game and it is easy to forget Alabama. Hell, as we all know, watch a lead blown in the second half and it is easy to forget the first half.
We can’t be fans and completely avoid riding those emotional reactions. But it remains worth remembering that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem in the moment.
Most of us, myself included, need to take a deep breath, and relax. (At least for now.) This is why, or at least one reason, coaches spend so much time preaching to their teams to avoid social media and to never buy into what people outside the locker room think or say.
2. Holly hell! What was that?
I understand that it is important to never make too much of one single game performance. But that was pure….uh...that was unacceptable. The OL – previously appearing as an at least average D1 unit – was simply destroyed inside. The defensive game plan – if it made any sense to start, was never adjusted after the early results proved it to be ineffective. For some reason the offense never seemed willing to attack the edges and when it most needed to make a play and change momentum reverted to its most conservative options.
Just a couple of weeks ago many of us thought we saw signs of in-game defensive adjustments. Where did that go? Based on results coming into the game I understand why you would try to invite that TT QB to throw the ball. But after being burned repeatedly and watching him struggle consistently when pressured how do you not adjust?
IDK the answer. I’m sure there is one. It can’t be thinking the rush would be effective when sending three. Four were not likely to impact the play. Was it a lack of confidence in the back end of the defense? Could it have been somehow related to expected play calls?
None of that sounds like a reasonable answer to me.
The advantage for an offense is that they have the ball, call the play, and initiate the action. This allows the offense to be the aggressor and attack the defense.
My perception is that the best answer for a defense is to flip that advantage. Always play aggressively. Take the advantage away from the offense. I have always felt that dropping into coverage runs the risk of sucking the aggressiveness out of a defense. I think it can lead to playing a half step slower, just a little hesitant.
I mean, when was Texas last protecting a late big lead? I don’t need to ever see a safety blitz starting 20 yards from the LOS again. But attack. Always, always attack.
A week ago, I was happy to say that I finally thought we were seeing some defensive in-game adjustments. This week….IDK.
It seems clear that there are things the staff has been unwilling to ask of Hudson Card on his injured ankle. Fair enough. But don’t you have to expect that TT players and coaches are going to figure that out by the 2nd half? Don’t you have to think that you will need play calls ready to counter their defensive adjustments? All I know with any certainty is that the Texas offense was not fooling anyone and not good enough to just enforce their will.
Injuries hurt. Missed holding on TT hurt. In some cases, players were just not good enough. But this felt like a game that the coaches lost.
A few weeks ago, I watched Texas play Alabama. While watching I could see that the talent on the Alabama team, overall, was greater than Texas. A loss because of officiating was infuriating.
Saturday, I watched Texas play TT. While watching I could see that the talent on the Texas team, overall, was greater than TT. A loss to inferior talent was infuriating.
Which one bothered me more?
3. Would another half with Overshown on defense have been worth one more point, (or one less point for TT), in regulation?
I certainly don’t know. No one does. You can’t even look at his 2nd half performance and apply that to the 1st half hypothetically. It doesn’t work that way. Players have good and bad halves all the time. But knowing that a game went to overtime when the team’s best defender was not allowed to play does make you wonder. Is it possible that the UTSA refs cost Texas a game the next week?
It’s a pointless question at this point. But, in case you were wondering, yes – I am still pissed.
I’m still pissed about multiple calls in the game with Alabama. I have watched games not involving Texas with still more inexcusable and missed calls. It isn’t only my perspective as a Texas fan. College officials are not good at their job.
Oh, I know that there are some who are good. But there are clearly far too many who have no business being on the field.
What I can’t understand is how a multi-billion-dollar industry does not have full-time, dedicated, referees to govern play.
Of course, I have the same question for a lot of professional sports.
4. Something that could have won the game is better QB play.
I have a ton of respect for Hudson card right now. He is giving everything he has for the team. I wish he could have had this opportunity when healthy – both for him and for Texas. Everyone seems fairly confident that Texas could have beat Alabama with Quinn Ewers. I suspect they could have beat Alabama if Card didn’t get injured during that game.
I understand that all teams have injuries to overcome. But damn. How many teams are going to withstand injuries to their top two QBs? (Don’t give me examples. I know some too. The exception proves the rule, and all that.)
I think that with a healthy Card Texas beats Alabama and TT. Just that stupid close to being undefeated with a completely different set of expectations going forward. One twisted ankle. (Maybe. IMO.)
We are into our 13th season of “one twisted ankle”, or something else stupid. It is difficult to remember that the prior seasons are not a predictor for this one. At least as far as luck is concerned.
Further, the Mack Brown teams, Charlie Strong teams, and Tom Herman teams have nothing to do with this team. Even if you want to talk about Sark’s prior record as a head coach that was not at Texas, not with this staff or these players. He also has a lot of miles and experience under his belt since his last head coaching gig. Maybe he will prove to be the same guy he was before. But pointing to his past coaching record is really a false narrative.
Analogy is the weakest form of argument.
I know. I could argue the other side of that. But I believe that if Sark ultimately proves to be just another average head coach it will be because – well, that is statistically most likely. It is called average for a reason. I do not believe that his past record makes it inevitably so.
5. I think the worst kept secret around Texas football was that Quinn Ewers would start.
With Hudson Card and a healthy Casey Thompson scheduled to return for a second season in the same offensive system why would Sark recruit Quinn Ewers? God knows that scholarship could have been used elsewhere.
The answer is that Sark did not believe he could win with CT or HC. Otherwise, he wouldn’t put his eggs in the basket of someone who had never thrown a pass in a college football game.
Oh, I know there really was a competition. QE had to prove that he really was a better option. But make no mistake, that was always the plan.
I want to see what Sark can do with a healthy QE in conference play. If the offense can be productive and more consistent it will be a tremendous help to the defense.
But expect the inexperience of QE to also be a factor.
6. I see a lot of people arguing about what the problem is.
It’s the offense. No, it’s the defense. Its play calling. Its defensive scheme.
These things are not mutually exclusive. The refs vs Alabama were absolutely an issue, over and over. It is not excuse making to say that injuries have been an issue. (Top 2 QBs, most experienced OL, starting WR) 3rd down defense. Interior OL play. Play calling – on both sides. It doesn’t have to be just one thing. Any of those have the potential to cost you a game.
I have watched sports for my entire life, and I am old. But even when following very successful teams, championship caliber teams, I have never seen a fan base unable to find fault with something. I can remember my father and grandfather complaining about DRK, and certainly players on his teams. Jody Conradt is a member of virtually any basketball hall of fame you want to name. But many people, myself included, routinely questioned her decisions. Some of the things that I read about Cliff Gustafson made me blush.
I think that it is important – obviously barring some extreme circumstance – to make notes but withhold judgement until the season is over. Concerns are fair. Judgments are a problem. Beliefs are difficult to change even when evidence suggests that is appropriate.
But if you are drunk – well, then anything goes.
Side note…
Passing grades for me to this point in 2022…
Bijan Robinson
Roshon Johnson
Jordan Whittington
Kelvin Banks
Anthony Cook
Bert Auburn
Who else do you have?
7. I think that everyone understood that Texas would not go undefeated in 2022. Everyone understood that to expect an undefeated season would unrealistic.
An incredibly young OL. Even less experienced QBs – not just the starter, but the entire room. A defense that completely failed to pressure QBs in 2022 and never added an experienced pass rusher to the roster. A defense that allowed historic rushing and scoring averages to opponents in 2021 returning 7 of 11 starters.
The game against Alabama was not an expected win. Most people didn’t even think Texas had a chance. While I am pissed at the way it happened, I can’t fault anyone at Texas for that game. Without egregious buffoonery from the refs, and much to my surprise, they would have won. Ignore how it happened, how painful it was to watch, for a minute and just remember that this was predictable. Not a surprise.
Louisiana and UTSA may not have been spectacular performances, but they did turn into comfortable wins. You expect a little vanilla in those games. Vanilla worked. Fine.
That brings us to TT. A young, inexperienced team goes on the road for an early season game to play what will be the Super Bowl for their opponent. They go in with the QB injuries and a 1st half suspension that we have already discussed. This game has been circled on calendars in Lubbock for two years.
This is a game that Texas should have won. On the other hand, we all knew that Texas would not go undefeated in conference play this season. That a loss would come early seems a safe bet. That it would come on the road certainly more likely than at home.
It is predictable. Not surprising at all. And still infuriating and inexcusable. Again, they are not mutually exclusive.
8. In the off-season I posted literally thousands of words about how rare it is to see a P5 team improve defensive points allowed by as much as even 7 points per game. Expecting anyone to transform the Texas defense into a plus unit quickly was never realistic. We should be looking for signs of progress and gradual improvement over the full season.
TT felt like more of the same. Frustration is reasonable. Meltdowns are probably not.
There has been a lot of talk about GP being better than PK. Maybe he is. But if TCU would have fielded a plus defense in 2021 GP would probably still be there. His reputation as a defensive guru is well deserved. Still, he is not infallible, and PK also came to Texas with a stellar reputation. My eyes are wide open, and I absolutely have concerns. But for me TCU in 2021 is a reason to not panic completely with PK just yet.
In fairness, points per game is the most important defensive statistic. There are a lot of other measurements which contribute that result. But in the end, it’s all about points per game, no matter how you get there. Much of my previous analysis was around the rarity of a team dropping PPG by 7 points or more in a single season.
Currently Texas is allowing almost 10 points per game less than in 2021. I could post the defensive categories that I said I would be watching for signs of improvement. But that would just make this post longer and be even more depressing. 3rd down stops. Fumbles recovered. QB pressures and sacks. No. We don’t want to talk about those.
Yet PPG is down significantly. Maybe I never knew what I was talking about. Maybe Texas simply hasn’t reached the most challenging part of the schedule. You can look at that in whichever way makes you more comfortable.
(Even with last season’s shutout over Rice PPG for just the first four games is down a couple of points.)
Regardless, there is time for improvement. I hope for that. I know Texas needs to find defensive playmakers, get them on the field and turn them loose.
9. I see Texas as a team that should be able to use a short and intermediate passing game to open up other opportunities. If I were planning to defend Texas I would be terrified of Worthy, Whittington, Sanders and Robinson out of the backfield with quick, possession type passes. Set up the run, then play action. Help a young OL and crippled QB.
I haven’t seen any use of the middle of the field, much less any strategy that seems to acknowledge their limitations.
Other than one brief window against Alabama this has felt a lot like Tom Herman style stubbornness.
What am I missing?
10. I’m convinced that some coaches are best at maximizing the results of elite talent. I believe that is a specific skill set.
I’m also convinced that some coaches are best at maximizing results when they have a talent deficit. I believe that also to be a specific skill set.
The rarest coach, I believe, is the coach with both of those skills.
I’m not sure what Sark is relative to those skills. When I watch I wonder sometimes if he has overestimated the talent on his team.
I’m surprised by how predictable and “safe” Sark has been at Texas.
It’s not just play calls. When will we see some form of reverse, double pass, (God help us) a pass out of the wildcat, fake punt……anything?
I think players are better, more aggressive, more engaged when they are having fun. I think playing to win is more fun than playing safe. So, play to win the damn game.
I understand that the most fun is winning and frequently accomplished by not taking unnecessary risks. But never talking a risk and still struggling just seems silly.
What does any of that mean? Hell, I don’t know. It’s fall and I am overthinking Texas football, as usual. But, for now, I believe that I will choose to be optimistic….
- Sark has a well-documented track record in QB development. Ewers, Murphy, and Manning give him tools to develop. QBs can mask a lot of flaws.
- Flood appears to be showing signs of development with his OL. The class signed has tons of potential. The OL will improve.
- There is a stupid amount of RB talent now and incoming to run behind this developing OL.
- No trouble scoring points.
- An improved offense will make the defense look better.
- The defense will either improve or the DC will be replaced.
