3 Key Questions for the Outcome of the Texas/Notre Dame Game

[TheDecker]

I've really been enjoying reading your guys takes on the Texas team/program and seeing how they stack up to ND and what people are saying elsewhere.

After the thinking through everything I've seen, these are the "Big 3" questions that I see as the determining factors for our upcoming.
(at the moment)

Obviously there are always other things that factor in (turnovers, 1 player just going off, etc.)....but overall, these occur to me as the keys to our game.

What are your guys thoughts?



1. How Well Can Texas Run the Ball?
The #1 question isn't QB play? CRAZINESS!! But hear me out...

.I think we can all agree that Texas isn't likely to get "great" QB play Week 1. Whether it's a subpar player like Swoopes or a True Frosh in his first CFB game...I think the best case scenario there is serviceable. With Notre Dame averaging ~33.5 Points/Game the past couple seasons...Texas is going to need to score to win this game.

Texas has only broken the "30 Point Barrier" against a Top100 Defense 2x in the last 2 seasons (v. 2015 Cal and 2014 West Virginia). Texas's average rushing stats for those 2 games:
45 Carries
250 Yards
5.6 Yards/Carry
4 TDs
I think Texas is going to need rushing numbers in that range in order to put up 30+ against Notre Dame...which is what I believe it will take to have a real shot at winning.

In 2015, Notre Dame only allowed 1 "non-Triple-Option" team to pile up those kind of rushing stats last year (Ohio State).

In 2016, the strength of Notre Dame's defense will be slanted towards defending the run. Notre Dame will like start 3 DLs who are limited pass rushers but EXCEL at playing against the run (especially power running) and ND's LB's and S's may have concerns in coverage (especially down the field) but should also excel against the run.

Whether or not Texas can establish a major ground game this time around will be the most important questions to answer when trying to examine the outcome of this game...in my opinion.





2. Can Texas Stop the Run?
Notre Dame's offense was more productive and efficient in 2015 than any other season in the last 10-15 years...and that's while starting a 3rd String Frosh QB and 4th String Frosh RB!

The key to the offense was the ability of the QB, RB, and most importantly OL to work together and provide a versatile and explosive rushing attack.

In 2016, Notre Dame is going to have a lot more experience at QB and RB, with both positions being much more able to run the ball than they were in 2015.......however they lose MAJOR pieces off the OL. ND has recruited the OL better than almost any other team in CFB the last 4 years, and expects to have another strong OL out of the gate in 2016. The 2016 version of the OL may actually be better in run blocking than the 2015 version, though they'll almost certainly take a step backwards in pass blocking.

If ND's 2016 QB/RB/OL combination is able to establish dominance on the ground, it's a near certainty that ND will score around 40 points. In the last 2 seasons, ND has rushed for 200+ yards 11x. In those games:
ND scored 30+ points all 11x
ND scored 40+ points 7/11x
ND scored 50+ points 3/11x
So if Texas isn't able to hold ND under 200+ yards rushing, ND is more likely to score 50+ points than 30 or less.

If this happens, I just don't see Texas's new/young offense being able to score enough points to keep them in the game.




3. Can Texas Force ND to Respect the Downfield Passing Game (not extended hand-offs)?
Finally...we make it to the Texas QB situation.

I believe that Texas needs to answer both of the above questions positively in order to ultimately make this question relevant to the outcome of the game. But if Texas is able to run the ball effectively on ND and stop ND from doing so themselves, then the next major key will be here.

The reality is, it's very hard to beat a team of any quality if you're truly 1-Dimensional...it doesn't happen very often.

If you look at the opponents that have played ND as 1-Dimensional (run only) Offense the last 2 Years:

• 200 Passing Yards (or fewer) - ND Won 9/10 Games
• 60% Comp (or less) - ND Won 14/16 Games
• 7.0 Yards/Attmp (or less) - ND Won 12/14 Games

In the last 2 years ND has held 18 opponents below at least one of the passing statistic "markers" from above...and they've won 16 of those 18 games.
(One of the 2 exceptions was the 2015 ND/Clemson game that was played in a hurricane)

To actually win this game (not just compete) Texas will need to get sufficient QB play to force ND to back the defense away from Texas's run game, and based on history "enough" is likely to be 200 Yards Passing, 60% Comp, 7.0 Yards/Attmp.

Texas has only reached that tri-fecta 5x under Charlie Strong.....and only 1x against a Top50 Defense (2014 Oklahoma)

To me, this is the difference between Texas "playing competitively" and having an actually meaningful chance of winning

 

[oldhorn2]

Decker.....the only real question that matters is how well are your guys gonna stand up against the Heat they are going to face in Austin? you can wolf it away all you want trying to rationalize that it won't affect your guys, but in the end it will. can y'all over come it?....yes, you can because you have lots of talent, but will you? I don't believe you will. Now go ahead and talk all that running game and whatever else , but in the end, I don't think y'all will enjoy that game in Austin. myself....I hope for no major injuries on either team.

 

[wadster]

Could easily be 95 at game time. Heat will be a factor, so hope we are practicing in the heat some.

Decker, I guess my memory doesn't server. I thought ND started a senior at QB against us and he got hurt after that. What was the status of ND QB's last year?

 

[TheDecker]

Could easily be 95 at game time. Heat will be a factor, so hope we are practicing in the heat some.

Decker, I guess my memory doesn't server. I thought ND started a senior at QB against us and he got hurt after that. What was the status of ND QB's last year?

Impossible to say what the temp will be at 7pm on a specific night 4 months from now....but if it follows averages for Austin at that time of the year, it should be well below 95 at kickoff and continue to drop throughout the game.

Heat will be a factor, but likely not a large one, given the night time kickoff
(but again, impossible to say until we know what the actual weather will be)



As for ND's QB:

Malik Zaire started against Texas in 2015. He was a RS Soph.
He broke his ankle in the 3rd quarter of ND's next game, and was out for the season. He's recovered well, and was full contact for spring practice.

Deshone Kizer played 11 of the 13 games in 2015, following Zaire's injury. He was a RS Frosh.
Kizer played well, putting up about 3,300 total yards and winning 8 of 11 games. He also showed a lot of potential for further improvement.

Zaire and Kizer are competing for the starting spot for the 2016 season. No starter was named during the spring and the decision isn't really expected until the around the week of the ND/Texas game.

If I was Texas's coaching staff, I would expect to see both QB play, in some capacity.

 

[speedstrength]

Texas is going to lose. The heat will be a factor. Even that late at night. 2 or 3 or the true freshman D tackles are going to see significant snaps because of the heat. We will most likely be starting a true freshman QB and Center and there really isn't much experience or talent behind the guys we have on oline.

 

[Switzerownsroyal]

Texas gonna get destroyed. It's Hilarious that they schedule a tough opponent and get whipped. Like picking a fight with someone way tougher hahhahahah

 

[outhereincali]

Texas gonna get destroyed. It's Hilarious that they schedule a tough opponent and get whipped. Like picking a fight with someone way tougher hahhahahah

We'll see how funny it is for you when you play Cougar high the day before

And then play tOSU two weeks later. Oh and btw Dabo Sweeney and Brent Venables say hi

 

[Switzerownsroyal]

We made it to the playoffs why you watched at home and cried with no little peanut bowl. Boo boo

 

[Switzerownsroyal]

Texas is going to lose. The heat will be a factor. Even that late at night. 2 or 3 or the true freshman D tackles are going to see significant snaps because of the heat. We will most likely be starting a true freshman QB and Center and there really isn't much experience or talent behind the guys we have on oline.

Damn right. Hahahaha oh ho ho ho ho

 

[Zonereadplz]

We made it to the playoffs why you watched at home and cried with no little peanut bowl. Boo boo

But we smashed you...and made it look easy

 

[wadster]

Back to the thread, Zaire played really well. We had a hard time defending quick QBs all year. Worst losses were to ND and TCU. Both with very quick QBs that could make passes downfield as well. If we are going to stay in the game at all we have to have better play from the DEs and LBs plus have the inside guys not get pushed off the line. If we can run the ball obviously that helps the D, but the D has got to play better when it's on the field.

 

[outhereincali]

Back to the thread, Zaire played really well. We had a hard time defending quick QBs all year. Worst losses were to ND and TCU. Both with very quick QBs that could make passes downfield as well. If we are going to stay in the game at all we have to have better play from the DEs and LBs plus have the inside guys not get pushed off the line. If we can run the ball obviously that helps the D, but the D has got to play better when it's on the field.

True that but remember how many true freshman played in that game. And Foreman and Warren didn't play in that game. Connor Williams has had a full year and won't be playing against Jaydn Smith this time. Same goes on defense with Malik, and Naashon Hughes and the rest.

 

[outhereincali]

We made it to the playoffs why you watched at home and cried with no little peanut bowl. Boo boo

And we also saw you embarrass yourselves once again in a bowl game.

 

[TheDecker]

True that but remember how many true freshman played in that game. And Foreman and Warren didn't play in that game. Connor Williams has had a full year and won't be playing against Jaydn Smith this time. Same goes on defense with Malik, and Naashon Hughes and the rest.

On defense, Texas will actually be facing a much more talented and experienced unit in 2016 than what the saw in 2015.

In reality, Texas played a QB in his frost ever regular season CFB start,, a 3rd String RB, and an OL with 2-3 first time starters

On defense, you're facing a slightly younger unit overall, but more athletic/talented as a whole. They should immediately be better against the run.

Overall, it will be an older and more talented ND team than most NF opponents have seen recently, IMO

 

[Longyac]

I'd say Decker left out ....

4. Can Kelley get his team to take a terrible team, that they took to the woodshed last year, seriously?

BTW- while heat isn't the factor it used to be as everyone now gets hydration; that Field Turf gets up to 20 degrees hotter than the ambient temperature from baking all day in a gaint concrete bowl. Air movement has been terrible since they lowered the field and added an upper deck to the north and east sides. Plus the visitors bench is in the sun and Texas' bench is in the shade. Heat of the day in Austin is around 5pm. Texas would love a 6pm central kick as ND would be in the sun the first half.

This is what a 7pm Kick looks like.

 

[CaptainZigZag]

I've really been enjoying reading your guys takes on the Texas team/program and seeing how they stack up to ND and what people are saying elsewhere.

After the thinking through everything I've seen, these are the "Big 3" questions that I see as the determining factors for our upcoming.
(at the moment)

Obviously there are always other things that factor in (turnovers, 1 player just going off, etc.)....but overall, these occur to me as the keys to our game.

What are your guys thoughts?



1. How Well Can Texas Run the Ball?
The #1 question isn't QB play? CRAZINESS!! But hear me out...

.I think we can all agree that Texas isn't likely to get "great" QB play Week 1. Whether it's a subpar player like Swoopes or a True Frosh in his first CFB game...I think the best case scenario there is serviceable. With Notre Dame averaging ~33.5 Points/Game the past couple seasons...Texas is going to need to score to win this game.

Texas has only broken the "30 Point Barrier" against a Top100 Defense 2x in the last 2 seasons (v. 2015 Cal and 2014 West Virginia). Texas's average rushing stats for those 2 games:
45 Carries
250 Yards
5.6 Yards/Carry
4 TDs
I think Texas is going to need rushing numbers in that range in order to put up 30+ against Notre Dame...which is what I believe it will take to have a real shot at winning.

In 2015, Notre Dame only allowed 1 "non-Triple-Option" team to pile up those kind of rushing stats last year (Ohio State).

In 2016, the strength of Notre Dame's defense will be slanted towards defending the run. Notre Dame will like start 3 DLs who are limited pass rushers but EXCEL at playing against the run (especially power running) and ND's LB's and S's may have concerns in coverage (especially down the field) but should also excel against the run.

Whether or not Texas can establish a major ground game this time around will be the most important questions to answer when trying to examine the outcome of this game...in my opinion.





2. Can Texas Stop the Run?
Notre Dame's offense was more productive and efficient in 2015 than any other season in the last 10-15 years...and that's while starting a 3rd String Frosh QB and 4th String Frosh RB!

The key to the offense was the ability of the QB, RB, and most importantly OL to work together and provide a versatile and explosive rushing attack.

In 2016, Notre Dame is going to have a lot more experience at QB and RB, with both positions being much more able to run the ball than they were in 2015.......however they lose MAJOR pieces off the OL. ND has recruited the OL better than almost any other team in CFB the last 4 years, and expects to have another strong OL out of the gate in 2016. The 2016 version of the OL may actually be better in run blocking than the 2015 version, though they'll almost certainly take a step backwards in pass blocking.

If ND's 2016 QB/RB/OL combination is able to establish dominance on the ground, it's a near certainty that ND will score around 40 points. In the last 2 seasons, ND has rushed for 200+ yards 11x. In those games:
ND scored 30+ points all 11x
ND scored 40+ points 7/11x
ND scored 50+ points 3/11x
So if Texas isn't able to hold ND under 200+ yards rushing, ND is more likely to score 50+ points than 30 or less.

If this happens, I just don't see Texas's new/young offense being able to score enough points to keep them in the game.




3. Can Texas Force ND to Respect the Downfield Passing Game (not extended hand-offs)?
Finally...we make it to the Texas QB situation.

I believe that Texas needs to answer both of the above questions positively in order to ultimately make this question relevant to the outcome of the game. But if Texas is able to run the ball effectively on ND and stop ND from doing so themselves, then the next major key will be here.

The reality is, it's very hard to beat a team of any quality if you're truly 1-Dimensional...it doesn't happen very often.

If you look at the opponents that have played ND as 1-Dimensional (run only) Offense the last 2 Years:

• 200 Passing Yards (or fewer) - ND Won 9/10 Games
• 60% Comp (or less) - ND Won 14/16 Games
• 7.0 Yards/Attmp (or less) - ND Won 12/14 Games

In the last 2 years ND has held 18 opponents below at least one of the passing statistic "markers" from above...and they've won 16 of those 18 games.
(One of the 2 exceptions was the 2015 ND/Clemson game that was played in a hurricane)

To actually win this game (not just compete) Texas will need to get sufficient QB play to force ND to back the defense away from Texas's run game, and based on history "enough" is likely to be 200 Yards Passing, 60% Comp, 7.0 Yards/Attmp.

Texas has only reached that tri-fecta 5x under Charlie Strong.....and only 1x against a Top50 Defense (2014 Oklahoma)

To me, this is the difference between Texas "playing competitively" and having an actually meaningful chance of winning

To listen to TripDeck, we might as well not show up.

 

[RoboCocks21]

I guess our running backs won't run over anyone....or our OL will be worse then last....

 

[Belldozer1]

If Texas can get some decent qb play then I can see them winning.

 

[RoboCocks21]

If Texas can get some decent qb play then I can see them winning.

Dang bell I'm close to giving you a like

 

[oldhorn2]

ND fans lead the world in explaining to anyone that will listen how they will win upcoming games and will go into great detail explains exactly how it will happen. They also lead the world in ignoring any other opinion. I don't dispute that ND will be favored and deservedly so, I just don't agree that it will happen.

 

[Heisennberg]

I think one of the key questions will be will texas score in the double digits?

 

[Belldozer1]

Dang bell I'm close to giving you a like

Look it's simple really. Everyone knows Strong will be under a microscope. It will be preparing for this game all offseason like none other. Charlie understands the importance of this game. Get a win and build momentum and get the kids believing they can win. Lose and there's a great possibility it can go along way in tanking your season and Strong's career at Texas

 

[bubba2023]

The biggest question for Texas' season is obviously QB play, but the key to this game is going to be defense. Even if we have found our answer at QB with Buechele he is likely not going to be lights out game 1 of his career. We don't even know if he's going to start or just have a few series yet. Our only chance against ND is if our defense steps up and we play ball control offense similar to the OU game last year. Hopefully with a better passing game though. Our offense should be improved enough that we can score some points, but we aren't scoring 30+ points against ND. We won't have the firepower to trade blows against ND.

 

[Scholz]

To listen to TripDeck, we might as well not show up.

Exactly. Domer fans will always tell you in great detail how you have no chance. Golly, I hope our guys aren't too scared to dress for the game.

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

Say and question what ya want but, ND leaves Austin with their asses whipped!



Hook'em

 

[Zonereadplz]

On defense, Texas will actually be facing a much more talented and experienced unit in 2016 than what the saw in 2015.

In reality, Texas played a QB in his frost ever regular season CFB start,, a 3rd String RB, and an OL with 2-3 first time starters

On defense, you're facing a slightly younger unit overall, but more athletic/talented as a whole. They should immediately be better against the run.

Overall, it will be an older and more talented ND team than most NF opponents have seen recently, IMO

Ehh sorry but the stock every team puts into players being "more athletic" is vastly overrated during the off season as usual. A lot of 'should' and possibles..
I heard a lot of what you are saying before the OU game. "Well, last year..." But if you know anything about football is that when the score starts 0-0 each team ..even if its Appalachian State, you might get punched in the mouth.
Remember our young team goes 1-4 before OU, losing some heart breakers..you think they gained no experience from those games.
We beat OU and Baylor because we wanted it more..pretty simple.
Jeez...your type of logic is why people are amazed when Auburn, TCU, OKst, Clemson, UH, NWU, Navy, Tenn etc make a big jump from a bad year.

 

[TexExSpur]

Notre Dame lost a ton, but they'll be ready to go. Texas is the dark horse, I really don't know what to think until I see this offense function at full throttle.

 

[Son of Wasatch]

1. How Well Can Texas Run the Ball?

Outside of Baylor and Oklahoma, I don't think there is a better runningback combo in the country than Forman and Warren. Both are really big and really fast. Both are over 240 lbs and both run sub 4.5 40's.

For the first time in over a decade, Texas has an offensive line that other teams should fear. If all I had to talk about was lining up man on man and seeing who was better, I would be very confident Texas could win most battles, but Texas has some dangerous receivers that must be accounted for, especially John Burt who is the best receiver Texas has had since Jordan Shipley. Sleep on our passing game and you will get burnt. That will be enough to keep defenses honest. If we are able to keep defenses honest then our running game will be that much more effective.

The real key for our running game is, that Texas can rely on it to allow our QB to take on the role of game manager and now have the pressure of having to win the game with his arm.

2. Can Texas Stop the Run?

To me this is the money question. Texas has an amazing back 7, but can we win the LOS? Frankly, I don't know. I feel good that Texas can put some pressure on the QB on obvious passing downs. But can we stop the run on 3rd and short, or even 1st and 10? Texas is going to have to lean heavily on true freshmen DTs in order to be successful and that is not a good sign. Our hope is the Texas offense can put points on the board and force the opposing offense to have to air it out, if that happens this defense will be very effective, but if we have to rely on them to control the LOS; I have very little confidence.


3. Can Texas Force ND to Respect the Downfield Passing Game (not extended hand-offs)?

Yes, without a doubt. Texas has 3 receivers that are able to make explosive plays down the field. If Notre Dame doesn't respect it, they will get burnt.

I think Texas will be most effective utilizing play action pass to freeze up the safeties and allow our receivers to get into their pattern. We have some exceptional athletes that will be very very scary to opposing DCs.

 

[Top Gum]

Texas gonna get destroyed. It's Hilarious that they schedule a tough opponent and get whipped. Like picking a fight with someone way tougher hahhahahah

Scoreboard, meth-addled, sister-humping, noodling trailer trash.

 

[Top Gum]

Say and question what ya want but, ND leaves Austin with their asses whipped!

Please be quiet.



Hook'em

 

[Top Gum]

I think one of the key questions will be will texas score in the double digits?

I would think a Sooner fan would readily know the answer to that one.

 

[LonghornSoldier]

The three big questions that will pop up after Texas beats ND will be

1. Is ou ready to get smashed again in October by Texas?
2. Are tcu/baylor ready to get smashed by Texas
3. How many sooners and aggys will be whining about Texas winning the Big 12 being a fluke?


This team this year is going to shock the nation. Mark it down.

 

[Son of Wasatch]

The three big questions that will pop up after Texas beats ND will be

1. Is the cotton bowl going to allow bull market to use the women's restroom?
2. Are tcu/baylor ready to smash some young freshmen co-ed because she is dressed slutty and deserved it.
3. How many sooners and aggys will be whining about why they can't bang their sisters after a first down?


This team this year is going to shock the nation. Mark it down.

FIFY

 

[hookem3434]

We made it to the playoffs why you watched at home and cried with no little peanut bowl. Boo boo

We manhandled you guys !!

 

[tommika]

1. How Well Can Texas Run the Ball?

Outside of Baylor and Oklahoma, I don't think there is a better runningback combo in the country than Forman and Warren. Both are really big and really fast. Both are over 240 lbs and both run sub 4.5 40's.

For the first time in over a decade, Texas has an offensive line that other teams should fear. If all I had to talk about was lining up man on man and seeing who was better, I would be very confident Texas could win most battles, but Texas has some dangerous receivers that must be accounted for, especially John Burt who is the best receiver Texas has had since Jordan Shipley. Sleep on our passing game and you will get burnt. That will be enough to keep defenses honest. If we are able to keep defenses honest then our running game will be that much more effective.

The real key for our running game is, that Texas can rely on it to allow our QB to take on the role of game manager and now have the pressure of having to win the game with his arm.

2. Can Texas Stop the Run?

To me this is the money question. Texas has an amazing back 7, but can we win the LOS? Frankly, I don't know. I feel good that Texas can put some pressure on the QB on obvious passing downs. But can we stop the run on 3rd and short, or even 1st and 10? Texas is going to have to lean heavily on true freshmen DTs in order to be successful and that is not a good sign. Our hope is the Texas offense can put points on the board and force the opposing offense to have to air it out, if that happens this defense will be very effective, but if we have to rely on them to control the LOS; I have very little confidence.


3. Can Texas Force ND to Respect the Downfield Passing Game (not extended hand-offs)?

Yes, without a doubt. Texas has 3 receivers that are able to make explosive plays down the field. If Notre Dame doesn't respect it, they will get burnt.

I think Texas will be most effective utilizing play action pass to freeze up the safeties and allow our receivers to get into their pattern. We have some exceptional athletes that will be very very scary to opposing DCs.

Can Texas Force ND to Respect the Downfield Passing Game (not extended hand-offs)?
If Texas can exploit the ND defensive backfield weakness it will be a long day for the Irish. No matter,this game is going to be a lot closer than most fans think.