UPDATED 5/3: Half Way Point
Below is my original projections from (4/1), with projections through 5/31. Since we are half way to 6/1, I decided to see how we're trending through 5/2 and where my models compare to the originals.
As a basis, here is where we were when I created the original models in total cases and total deaths on 4/2 as of numbers through 4/1.
Where do you see us ending up in Total US Deaths when you wake up 6/1? If you made a previous prediction, would be interesting to juxtapose to your current prediction.
Original Post:
I've created 2 models that run for the next 60 days from 4/2 - 5/31. Both fall into the realm of "realistic" (but happy to debate), Model (1) is more hopeful and Model (2) a bit more pessimistic.
Current US Stats as of April, 2nd.
Total Cases: 244,877
Model (1) Optimistic Foundation: The “Peak” is 2 weeks out and our social distancing strategy works in a rapid fashion.
Parameters/Assumptions: I took the 3 day % increase of 14.35% for new case growth rate and started from there. Regarding the new death growth rate, I took today’s % of 18.97% and started from there, as I’m trying to paint a realistic but optimistic picture. The peak in daily new cases and deaths occurs on 4/14 with 69,960 new cases and 1,881 new deaths. From there the new case growth rate will start to decline by 12% daily for 1 week, then decline by 20% daily for 1 week, then drop down to 30% daily decline for 2 weeks, then closing out May with 50% daily decline. The death rate will follow a similar model, but will actually decline slightly faster, as the Total Number of Deaths is significantly lower than Total Cases, so naturally the decrease will be more rapid in terms of %.
Projection when you wake up on 6/1/2020:
Parameters/Assumptions: I started with the same growth rate% for cases & deaths, but declined less rapidly. The peak in daily new cases occurs on 4/30 with 149,314 and daily new deaths occurs on 4/29 with 7,753. Same concept as model 1, except the peak is 4 weeks out and the post peak decline is less steep due to different hot spots popping up throughout the country due to federal, state and local governments not having a unified strategy, leading to some hospital systems being overwhelmed, causing the death rate to spike beyond what is projected.
Projection when you wake up on 6/1/2020
Thoughts, opinions or critiques?
Below is my original projections from (4/1), with projections through 5/31. Since we are half way to 6/1, I decided to see how we're trending through 5/2 and where my models compare to the originals.
As a basis, here is where we were when I created the original models in total cases and total deaths on 4/2 as of numbers through 4/1.
- Total Deaths on 4/1 = 6,394 (Note: This number has been revised up due to late/delayed reporting, original number was 6,070)
- Model 1: Total Projected Deaths as of 6/1: Original Model: 37,025
- Model 2: Total Projected Deaths as of 6/1: Original Model: 193,343
- Model 1 (Optimistic): Total Projected Deaths as of 6/1: 83,970
- Model 2 (Pessimistic): Total Projected Deaths as of 6/1: 208,646
- My amended guesstimate is 110,000 deaths as of 6/1. (Hard to comprehend me increasing by 70,000, but have to follow the math. Even I did not appreciate the power of exponential growth)
Where do you see us ending up in Total US Deaths when you wake up 6/1? If you made a previous prediction, would be interesting to juxtapose to your current prediction.
Original Post:
I've created 2 models that run for the next 60 days from 4/2 - 5/31. Both fall into the realm of "realistic" (but happy to debate), Model (1) is more hopeful and Model (2) a bit more pessimistic.
- Note: Current stats were pulled from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which has it’s day end/begin at 8p CST, so the daily totals are slightly different than other sites.
Current US Stats as of April, 2nd.
Total Cases: 244,877
- Average 30 Day % Increase in New Cases: 29.11%
- Average 10 Day % Increase in New Cases: 18.88%
- Average 5 Day % Increase in New Cases: 14.66%
- Average 3 Day % Increase in New Cases: 14.35%
- Average 30 Day % Increase in New Deaths: 24.39
- Average 10 Day % Increase in New Deaths: 26.84%
- Average 5 Day % Increase in New Deaths: 21.65%
- Average 3 Day % Increase in New Deaths: 23.43%
- 2.48% (244,877 cases, 6,070 deaths)
- In Exponential Growth models, it is projected that the % change will remain relatively flat (within reason), but as the total number grows the % has a compounding effect. i.e. 20% of 1,000 is not the same as 20% of 100,000.
- The primary driver behind the “Peaks and Valleys” of New Case growth rate versus the fairly static New Death growth rate is due to extreme social distancing and our lack of testing. Yes, both.
- The Social Distancing has absolutely curbed this virus to some extent and that must be acknowledged.
- Testing has increased, but not adequately to meet demand. Therefore there is a significant amount of undiagnosed patients who can’t get tested or waiting on results.
- As testing continues to expand, tests become more efficient and labs improve processing times, the New Case growth rate will start to level off.
Model (1) Optimistic Foundation: The “Peak” is 2 weeks out and our social distancing strategy works in a rapid fashion.
Parameters/Assumptions: I took the 3 day % increase of 14.35% for new case growth rate and started from there. Regarding the new death growth rate, I took today’s % of 18.97% and started from there, as I’m trying to paint a realistic but optimistic picture. The peak in daily new cases and deaths occurs on 4/14 with 69,960 new cases and 1,881 new deaths. From there the new case growth rate will start to decline by 12% daily for 1 week, then decline by 20% daily for 1 week, then drop down to 30% daily decline for 2 weeks, then closing out May with 50% daily decline. The death rate will follow a similar model, but will actually decline slightly faster, as the Total Number of Deaths is significantly lower than Total Cases, so naturally the decrease will be more rapid in terms of %.
Projection when you wake up on 6/1/2020:
- Total Cases in the US = 1,514,874
- Total Deaths in the US = 37,025
- Mortality Rate = 2.44%
Parameters/Assumptions: I started with the same growth rate% for cases & deaths, but declined less rapidly. The peak in daily new cases occurs on 4/30 with 149,314 and daily new deaths occurs on 4/29 with 7,753. Same concept as model 1, except the peak is 4 weeks out and the post peak decline is less steep due to different hot spots popping up throughout the country due to federal, state and local governments not having a unified strategy, leading to some hospital systems being overwhelmed, causing the death rate to spike beyond what is projected.
Projection when you wake up on 6/1/2020
- Total Cases in the US: 3,909,830
- Total Deaths in the US: 193,343
- Mortality Rate = 4.95%
Thoughts, opinions or critiques?
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