I waited a bit, but wanted to post a few thoughts. First, congrats to the Pubs, including all these we've been going back and forth with about the polls. You were right, up and down the line. But a few things...
1) Y'all have to give me my props. I called it for Trump at 7:30 PM last night in the thread about exit polls. I think I was the first on this board to do so.
2) For all of the talk about the polls, in general they were right. I pride myself on looking at the numbers, and I was doing so until the very end, when I let personal feelings blur the reality of what they were saying. At the end of the day, the pollsters generally fixed the problems from 2016 and 2020, and in fact they did not over correct. Trump won by a small but consistent margin most of the way across the board.
3) Texas is not purple.
4) There were a number of reasons why Trump won:
1) Biden screwed up the border all to hell, and Harris was tarred with that. When you throw in that she looks like an immigrant herself, it was a huge hurdle to overcome.
2) Silver said this today, and I agree. She tacked WAY left trying to get the nomination in 2020, and then came back to the center...but could never explain to the American people why, and where she really stood.
3) She was hamstrung from the beginning, by the lack of any primary campaign. Again, I blame Biden. Had he done what he said in 2020, and stepped away, there would have been a vigorous primary, and I think Newsom would not only have won, but would have beaten Trump. But we won't know now. Newsom is now easily the standard bearer for 2028, and watch him try to spend the next 3 years moving to the center. He's already started by forcing CA cities to clean up the homeless camps.
4) Walz was also a mistake. I think she saw "white male football coach", and thought that was a ticket balancer. But she picked one of the most liberal governors, from a state she was already going to win. Picking Shapiro wins her PA, but I still think she may have lost anyway.
5) I have come around to not thinking Trump will overstay his term. Not that he wouldn't try - he certainly might. But he could only do so with the assistance of the GOP...and while they aren't in any hurry to buck him now, that is different. Think JD Vance, for example, is going to support allowing Trump to stay in office past Jan 2029? No way. He wants that seat. And the rest of the GOP will take the opportunity to get out from underneath Trump also. Not that he hasn't delivered...because he clearly has...but because they don't want to be under his thumb.
6) The Dems have some soul searching to do. They desperately need to get the party back from the progs and the Squad. This crap of supporting trans operations for kids, boys in girls sports, etc.? We have to get the narrative back to the center. There will be an opportunity in 2026. America has a long history of having a massive flip in the midterm after one party takes full control, and if the Dems get their stuff together, it is there for them.
With all that, I'll hang around here a bit to respond, but then I'm stepping away for a while. I'll be back but going to go lick my wounds. Think of it this way. How many of you would hang around Texags and watch them gloat and celebrate if they knock us out of the playoff? Nope.
1) Y'all have to give me my props. I called it for Trump at 7:30 PM last night in the thread about exit polls. I think I was the first on this board to do so.
2) For all of the talk about the polls, in general they were right. I pride myself on looking at the numbers, and I was doing so until the very end, when I let personal feelings blur the reality of what they were saying. At the end of the day, the pollsters generally fixed the problems from 2016 and 2020, and in fact they did not over correct. Trump won by a small but consistent margin most of the way across the board.
3) Texas is not purple.
4) There were a number of reasons why Trump won:
1) Biden screwed up the border all to hell, and Harris was tarred with that. When you throw in that she looks like an immigrant herself, it was a huge hurdle to overcome.
2) Silver said this today, and I agree. She tacked WAY left trying to get the nomination in 2020, and then came back to the center...but could never explain to the American people why, and where she really stood.
3) She was hamstrung from the beginning, by the lack of any primary campaign. Again, I blame Biden. Had he done what he said in 2020, and stepped away, there would have been a vigorous primary, and I think Newsom would not only have won, but would have beaten Trump. But we won't know now. Newsom is now easily the standard bearer for 2028, and watch him try to spend the next 3 years moving to the center. He's already started by forcing CA cities to clean up the homeless camps.
4) Walz was also a mistake. I think she saw "white male football coach", and thought that was a ticket balancer. But she picked one of the most liberal governors, from a state she was already going to win. Picking Shapiro wins her PA, but I still think she may have lost anyway.
5) I have come around to not thinking Trump will overstay his term. Not that he wouldn't try - he certainly might. But he could only do so with the assistance of the GOP...and while they aren't in any hurry to buck him now, that is different. Think JD Vance, for example, is going to support allowing Trump to stay in office past Jan 2029? No way. He wants that seat. And the rest of the GOP will take the opportunity to get out from underneath Trump also. Not that he hasn't delivered...because he clearly has...but because they don't want to be under his thumb.
6) The Dems have some soul searching to do. They desperately need to get the party back from the progs and the Squad. This crap of supporting trans operations for kids, boys in girls sports, etc.? We have to get the narrative back to the center. There will be an opportunity in 2026. America has a long history of having a massive flip in the midterm after one party takes full control, and if the Dems get their stuff together, it is there for them.
With all that, I'll hang around here a bit to respond, but then I'm stepping away for a while. I'll be back but going to go lick my wounds. Think of it this way. How many of you would hang around Texags and watch them gloat and celebrate if they knock us out of the playoff? Nope.
