The conventional thinking is that the death of RGB will rally the Democrat base and swing voters. Who will it swing? Independents? Posssibly but that might not be enough to flip a red seat. They need Republicans to flip. Supreme Court questions rally the Republicans and cause them to go home. Right now the Dems need to flip 4 seats with Joe Biden as President. This is the real focus since Trump as President means anything that gets out of the Senate will get a veto. There are a ton of close races but a few where this new topic can have an influence. The 4 flips is needed since they will lose AL. The following 4 all need to be flipped. These are probably the most vulnerable. Can the Republicans keep at least ONE.
North Carolina. The Republican is trailing a hand picked moderate Democrat. He is a moderate for a reason. Will Republicans return home on this topic. I think a pro life justice helps keep this seat in a conservative state.
Arizona. This battle is tough and is looking good for the Dems. Supreme Court topic helps but the Dems are running a former astronaut that is a moderate. This one is at risk.
Maine. Collins taking a strong position against confirming a justice could help her in an independent minded region.
Colorado. This state has been swinging and is probably lost.
I think ACB will help the most in North Carolina and the Republicans keep the Senate with one to spare.
North Carolina. The Republican is trailing a hand picked moderate Democrat. He is a moderate for a reason. Will Republicans return home on this topic. I think a pro life justice helps keep this seat in a conservative state.
Arizona. This battle is tough and is looking good for the Dems. Supreme Court topic helps but the Dems are running a former astronaut that is a moderate. This one is at risk.
Maine. Collins taking a strong position against confirming a justice could help her in an independent minded region.
Colorado. This state has been swinging and is probably lost.
I think ACB will help the most in North Carolina and the Republicans keep the Senate with one to spare.
