Alex’s 10 Thoughts from the Three-Day Weekend
1. Updated Projected Three-Deep: Offense
photo via UT Athletics
QB
Shane Buechele (true FR)
Tyrone Swoopes (SR)
Jerrod Heard (SO)
- Very easy to project, and no changes from the original projection made post-spring game. We are already doing our fire-drills around the old OB offices in preparation for the response from the community once fall camp gets here and Tyrone Swoopes is the first QB up with the starters. However, I think all Texas football fans, coaches and analysts foresee Buechele taking the reins fully and firmly through fall camp.
RB
D'Onta Foreman (JR)
Chris Warren (SO)
Kirk Johnson (SO)
- Again, very easy to project and no changes from the original. The interesting and new wild-card here will certainly be Kyle Porter (FR) who has come to Texas in impressive fashion and who people close to the program believe could have an impact, even as a freshman.
WR (right split end)
John Burt (SO)
Dorian Leonard (JR)
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps (true FR)
- Hemphill-Mapps comes in as a player who most envision as a slot receiver, but numbers (and talent) at the inside WR positions could force RHM to the outside, where he’s big enough — and enough of a playmaker — to fit in.
WR (left split end)
Collin Johnson (true FR)
Lorenzo Joe (JR)
Davion Curtis (true FR)
- Outside of Leonard and Burt, Lorenzo Joe is the only WR on the current roster who has taken snaps at the split end — either last season or in the spring game — but the new staff has used him most as an inside receiver. It’s safe to predict Joe will continue to get work at both positions and find playing time as often as he can in relief of starters. Texas is going to run 100 plays a week on offense; there will be snaps to go around.
photo via UT Athletics
SLOT WR
Armanti Foreman (JR)
Lorenzo Joe (JR)
OR
Jacorey Warrick (SR)
- There is a possibility that Texas starts out training camp with Foreman lined up at the left split end with the first group opposite John Burt, but to me that feels a little like Tyrone Swoopes lining up as the first QB. You have a pretty strong feeling a transition of some sort will occur at some point during camp. Johnson will eventually take over the position, bumping Foreman in to the slot where he’ll still be plenty effective as a dynamic playmaker in space.
WR4
Devin Duvernay (true FR)
OR
Deandre McNeal (SO)
Jake Oliver (JR)
- The WR4 should be in line to get around 35% of snaps in 2016 and that slice of pie could be divvied up between a whole cast of characters. Guys like Ryan Newsome and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (true FR) could easily factor in. However, Duvernay comes in as a speed weapon unlike any other Texas has on its roster or has had since Marquise Goodwin at the receiver position. He seems like the kind of player you stick out there with the first group to see if he can run away with a job. The things a wide receiver with his kind of speed can open up in a combo-route-based Sterlin Gilbert passing attack by exploiting defenders up the seam can’t be taught.
TE/FB
Caleb Bluiett (SR)
Andrew Beck (JR)
Peyton Aucoin (true FR)
- We've heard that Blake Whiteley (JR) was running routes, catching the football and hitting the sled to end spring ball, but I can’t pencil him into the mix until we definitively know that he is back in action again. Whiteley’s injuries have been troublesome and frustrating to say the least.
photo via UT Athletics
LT
Connor Williams (SO)
Jean Delance (true FR)
OR
Buck Major (RS FR)
- Texas doesn't want to have an injury here, neither Delance or Major will likely be ready this season. If an injury were to occur to Williams early on, OL coach Matt Mattox would likely send a reserve from the right side to duty over either of these two developmental depth players.
LG
Brandon Hodges (JR)
OR
Denzel Okafor (true FR)
OR
Patrick Hudson (true FR)
- The most open and up-for-grabs position on the entire Texas offense in 2013 just got even murkier with the addition of Patrick Hudson. This could go any direction and will be important to personnel at other positions for a number of reasons. The other, optimal outcome would be Kent Perkins (SR) sliding down to the left guard while one of the backup right tackles steps into a starting role.
C
Zach Shackelford (true FR)
Elijah Rodriguez (SO)
Terrell Cuney (SO)
- The same projection as post-spring game. Elijah Rodriguez at left tackle for the spring game did not have promising results and it seems like a move back to center (as Rodriguez practiced for most of the spring) is probable as Terrell Cuney is not a suitable option at this time in his development.
RG
Patrick Vahe (SO)
Denzel Okafor (true FR)
OR
Tope Imade (true FR)
- Alex Anderson has been one of the bigger disappointments of the last few years in recruiting and he’s been dropped out of my projected three-deep. He was a healthy scratch in the spring game while walk-ons played. Expect a couple of freshmen to get in some good work and key reps versus the ones behind Patrick Vahe once camp starts.
RT
Kent Perkins (SR)
Tristan Nickelson (JR)
OR
Patrick Hudson (true FR)
- Optimally, as discussed, Perkins would bump inside and that possibility just became a smidgen less slight with the addition of Patrick Hudson. Hudson had the best balance and strength of any State of Texas offensive lineman in the 2016 class. Strength hasn’t been an issue defending the front-side edge of the Texas offense, but balance has been a key one going back to Josh Cochran. Landing Patrick Hudson was one of the most important things to happen to Texas football in the year 2016.
2. Updated Projected Three-Deep: Defense
photo via UT Athletics
SDE
Charles Omenihu (SO)
OR
Bryce Cottrell (SR)
Andrew Fitzgerald (true FR)
- No update from the first projection, Charles O. remains one of the favorites to be a breakout player in the 2016 season as he steps into higher snap percentages. As for depth, the Andrew Fitzgerald projection still looks good as he’s come in this summer looking beastly and is already impressing the coaches with his strength and speed.
NT
Paul Boyette (SR)
Chris Nelson (SO)
Gerald Wilbon (true FR)
- Originally, I had Jordan Elliott projected to start out at nose, but after hearing from a few folks during the first semester of summer workouts, it’s seeming more likely that it’ll be Wilbon handling things to start at the shade.
DT
Poona Ford (JR)
Jordan Elliott (true FR)
OR
D'Andre Christmas (true FR)
- Christmas pulled a reverse-Hemphill (which is nothing like a reverse Oreo) when he came to Texas by leaving off one of his previously hyphenated last names instead of adding one. Christmas has such a quick first step and such nice explosion that he’s been a shoe-in to handle the three-technique as a penetrator from jump street.
FOX
Naashon Hughes (JR)
OR
Breckyn Hager (SO)
Erick Fowler (true FR)
- I’m not sure that Naashon Hughes feels safe about his job at this time and, with all due respect to Hughes, he probably shouldn’t. He was only Texas’ 24th most productive defensive player on a per-snap basis last season per the Deep Dig. While it was at a different position, Hager was still capable of making an impact as the fifth-most disruptive on a per-snap basis by comparison. Add in Erick Fowler arriving on campus who is arguably the best player in the whole recruiting class and Hughes’ seat may actually feel hotter than Charlie Strong’s coming into the season. Both need big years.
photo via UT Athletics
MIKE LB
Malik Jefferson (SO)
Tim Cole (SR)
OR
Cameron Townsend (RS FR)
- Same projection as I originally had. At some point, though, fans would hope that Demarco Boyd (true FR) and Townsend would push a veteran depth-player like Cole to earn backup duties to Jefferson.
WILL LB
Anthony Wheeler (SO)
Jeffery McCulloch (true FR)
OR
Edwin Freeman (SO)
- Between McCulloch, Wheeler, Freeman and Jefferson, the future of the Texas LB corps is set for the next 2-3 years. Funny thing happens when you start developing true, quality and big-time depth, though: you have to worry more and more about guys leaving early for the NFL.
Secondary
photo via UT Athletics
NICKEL
PJ Locke (SO)
John Bonney (SO)
Antwuan Davis (JR)
RIGHT CB
Holton Hill (SO)
Kris Boyd (SO)
Eric Cuffee (true FR)
LEFT CB
Davante Davis (SO)
Sheroid Evans (SR)
OR
Antwuan Davis (JR)
SAFETY ("free")
Jason Hall (JR)
OR
Brandon Jones (true FR)
Chris Brown (true FR)
SAFETY ("strong")
Dylan Haines (SR)
OR
Deshon Elliott (SO)
Kevin Vaccaro (SR)
- Texas has two young, soon-to-be lockdown corners in Davante Davis and Holton Hill which makes you wonder how Kris Boyd will fit in in the future barring injury to either player. PJ Locke seems to have a firm grip on the nickel job, so a move of Boyd to cover the slot doesn’t seem likely, either. Fans should expect to see Boyd most when Texas goes to it’s dime-pressure “Cheetah” package which was used with more and more frequency (and a ton of success) through the 2015 season. If Boyd could be the sixth DB and “cheetah”-player in this package, that could give you a personnel grouping that represents having the true 11 best players on the field to defend against certain offensive looks in the passing game.
3. Scholarship players not projected on the three-deep (offense or defense)
photo via UT Athletics
QB:
Kai Locksley (RS FR)
Matthew Merrick (RS FR)
RB:
Tristian Houston (RS FR)
Roderick Bernard (JR)
Kyle Porter (true FR)
WR:
Ryan Newsome (SO)
Lil'Jordan Humphrey (true FR)
TE:
TE/WR Garrett Gray (SO)
Blake Whiteley (JR)
OL:
Alex Anderson (SO)
Jake McMillon (SO)
Garrett Thomas (RS FR)
JP Urquidez (true FR)
DT:
Chris Daniels (true FR)
Marcel Southall (true FR)
DE:
Quincy Vasser (SR)
Malcolm Roach (true FR)
LB:
Demarco Boyd (true FR)
DB:
Donovan Duvernay (true FR)
4. Buy or Sell
These are questions submitted by OB members.
B/S: Texas o-line play will be better than average this year.
BUY - If Shackelford can play at only a very slightly below-average level and we can expect the same from the left guard position, the average output of the entire unit should, for the first time in the history of the Deep Dig, be a bit above-average.
Property in Waco. buy or sell?
SELL - They hate me there.
B/S: Art Briles is a head D1 football coach again. If Buy, B/S one of his players at his new gig sexually assaults someone.
SELL - I could MAYBE see him coaching JUCO, but honestly, I don’t think he’ll ever be trusted to have the lives of young, impressionable people in his hands ever again. He’s too good a coach to never coach again, though, so I think the NFL will be his eventual landing spot.
B/S: five eventual all Americans between last two recruiting classes.
BUY - You already have one in Malik, right? At least as a preseason selection. Vahe and Williams have already been freshman AA’s. It’d be a tougher question to answer if you asked if there would be 7-8.
Buy or sell. Art Briles is behind the scenes helping with game plans, etc. I just can't see it not happening with Kendall as the OC. How many of his fingerprints are still on this program?
BOTH - I’ll buy the fact that his fingerprints are all over the program (it’s his system, players and assistants), but sell the idea that he’ll be monitoring things behind the scenes and pulling strings like some sort of mad puppeteer.
B/S: at least 2 former Baylor players become starters by the end of the of the season.
SELL - But it’s close. I think it’s likely that Hudson becomes a starter, but I’m not sure of it. I think Duvernay will be an instant contributor, but I don’t feel comfortable pegging him as an instant starter before he even gets on campus. Of those two players, I believe fans will see significant contributions and I would not be shocked if both ended up starters by the end of the season.
B/S: no additional coaches will be let go at Baylor before the season starts unless something new is made public before.
BUY - Baylor has (unbelievably) received such little heat for their sneaky move to keep possibly-implicated assistant coaches that my gut tells me they’ll make it through to football season without firing them. I say this even knowing that Texas Monthly will have a new piece dropping regarding Baylor in July.
B/S: 9 wins and Charlie's mojo is enough to flip JK Dobbins.
SELL - 9 wins would do a lot of good for Texas’ “mojo” (can you believe that’s only two wins less than Strong has had during his entire time at Texas thus far?) but it doesn’t do anything for the currently stacked depth chart at RB. I know Suchomel has said not to shut the door on this one, I just don’t see how Texas’ pitch is anywhere near strong enough to flip a player like Dobbins who’s surely interested in early playing time.
Buy or sell: Walker Little is a true freshman starter, regardless of where he goes to school.
BUY - You have got to get that kid on the field as soon as you can regardless of the locale. The only way I could see him taking a year or so to get to that level is if he went to a school like Texas A&M circa 2012 or so where both a Joeckel and a Matthews were already on board.
B/S: Texas plays in a New Year's Day Bowl Jan 2017?
SELL - I need a premise to make such a statement, and regardless of anyone’s positivity about Strong’s magnificent showings as a recruiter, they’re all forgotten the day doormats like Iowa State pound Texas into submission on the actual field. Plain and simple: I have to see an organized, focused and consistently not-embarrassing Texas football product on game days before making such a bold preseason projection.
Speaking of bold preseason football predictions …
5. Fantasy Football Kickoff Weekend
It was “fantasy football kickoff weekend” at SiriusXM fantasy sports radio, and, as usual, hosts were asked to make “bold predictions” about the upcoming fantasy football season as program imaging celebrated the official shift from baseball-centric to football-centric content on the channel.
Here were the predictions myself and my co-hosts came up with on our radio show RosterWatch (2-4pm central on Sundays in the offseason, 5-7pm central on Saturdays in-season):
Rams RB Todd Gurley will be the No. 1 RB in fantasy for 2016 in both standard and PPR leagues.
- He’s the best we’ve ever scouted in the history of our show/company and fans are going to see a new gear out of Gurley in 2016 as I’m nearly sure he was not quite ever 100% in 2015 coming off of ACL surgery. It will be a Todd Gurley offense in LA to start the new franchise.
Denver RB CJ Anderson (4th-5th Round ADP currently) will be a legitimate RB1 in 12-team leagues.
- He got swindled last season by a disjointed system that had to adjust to Brock Osweiler being thrown into a Peyton Manning offense and also an organizational delusion about the possible effectiveness of Ronnie Hillman as a runner. Anderson came back to Denver after getting bigger offers from Miami and Chicago because John Elway let him know he was going to be the horse in 2016 as the team navigated its first post-Manning foray back into the fold.
Giants rookie WR Sterling Shepard (current ADP of WR49) will be a Top 20 option at the position and solid WR2 for fantasy.
- This was a prediction by my co-host the Trashman, and unlike most of the garbage he spews, I actually liked this one. The Giants need a No. 2 opposite Beckham and I have no faith in Victor Cruz returning to his old self.
Redskins QB Kirk Cousins (current 10th-11th Round ADP) will be a Top 5 fantasy QB for 2016 in leagues with traditional scoring.
- We were finally vindicated in 2015 after it looked like Cousins, one of our favorite QB prospects to ever scout live, was going to turn into a broken-down turnover machine. We all saw that was not the case last season as Cousins will enter this one primed for a big contract year and bigger eventual pay day. Cousins was QB9 for fantasy last season and with improvement in many facets of the offense, a jump to No. 5 almost just doesn’t seem too bold. He’s free money in the 11th round of early drafts.
The BIG ONE: Steelers WR Antonio Brown will not only break Marvin Harrison’s receptions record in 2016, he’s going to break Megatron’s receiving yards record, also.
- Pretty self-explanatory, and it sounds like a ridiculously over-the-top prediction, right? The crazy part is - it isn’t that over-the-top. Brown would have broken these records last season had Ben Roethlisberger been healthy for the entire year. Add in no Martavis Bryant to siphon off deep targets and no Heath Miller to bite into intermediate looks … it’s going to be an absolute monster. He’s your No. 1 pick in 2016 fantasy regardless of format.
What is your bold prediction for the 2016 fantasy season?
6. DFS Legislation in New York
Speaking of fantasy, I had not-so-good news for the industry from Illinois the last time I filled in on the 10 Thoughts column, but this one brings great news from New York. The state’s legislators listened to their constituents rather than the misinformed opinion of a crooked Attorney General in a way I can only hope Texas will mimic when its legislative session begins in January.
The legalization and regulation of daily fantasy sports in New York state was not only a major financial win for the industry’s two largest companies, FanDuel and DraftKings (as the largest state for DFS both in terms of revenue and users), it was also a major victory for the people who play and love the games everywhere.
Common-sense legislation is becoming more and more commonplace. This will lead to not only a more stable and robust industry in the long-term, but also one where the consumer is protected and guaranteed a level playing field in his or her games of choice.
7. “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” - Kevin Durant
It’s going to sound like sacrilege around these parts to say anything even somewhat-critical of Kevin Durant following his Sunday announcement that he’d be joining the Golden State Warriors ... but here goes nothing.
(Cue up the ‘stick to football, Dunlap’ responses).
Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder were one game away from dethroning the Warriors in the 2016 NBA western conference finals — a team many basketball fans and analysts had been penciling in as NBA champions for the next five seasons. The Splash Brothers should’ve been preemptively enshrined in the hall of fame because they had single-handedly changed the game of basketball through three-point acrobatics.
When Lebron James and the hard-luck Cavs defeated God’s gift to basketball after starting out down 3-1, #Believeland ensued and everybody forgot that the Warriors are the best team in basketball. Everyone except Kevin Durant; he didn’t forget. The Warriors must have certainly left an impression on him.
Durant left his team to go play for a better one. Within one game is the closest he and his Thunder team could possibly ever come to beating his new one in a seven-game series.
Kevin Durant is a grown man, and he has big-boy decisions to make and it shouldn’t matter what any pundit says or does — he’s bigger than any media narrative and he could buy most of the newspapers.
But make no mistake, Kevin Durant did not think he could beat the Warriors. Who could blame him for running away to a better situation? Say it isn’t the most honorable thing? Fine. But as for a business decision, it cements your legacy to win championships in the NBA.
What’s ridiculous is comparing Kevin Durant’s free agency decision to Lebron James’ 2010 free agency decision, which seems to have become the popular narrative.
“Both guys left their teams for better ones to go win championships.”
No.
Lebron James went to a Miami Heat team that did end up winning championships, but was certainly no 2016 Golden State Warriors. The Heat had won a championship four seasons ago at that time, but that championship came at the end of a then-bygone Shaquille O’Neal era. Lebron James was not joining that team; Dwayne Wade was the only significant holdover. He was joining a team that had, in four seasons, not made it past the first round of the playoffs — and in one season, missed them completely.
Doesn’t sound exactly like God’s gift to basketball out by the bay that Durant just joined up with, does it?
8. Game of Thrones Withdrawal Suggestions
It seems like GOT makes us wait way too long before a new season starts.
I remember always associating the return of the hit HBO series with future life-markers at the culmination of its season finales: “Wow, she’ll be almost two when the next season starts!” and the like. “She’ll be talking and walking … just a little person by then,” Momma would say as she gazed at her infant daughter in the baby monitor, wrapped up like a burrito in her swaddle blanket.
The next time we saw Tyrion Lannister, we were picking up toys left abandoned in the wake of Hurricane Dash earlier that afternoon. Watching the drama unfold on a TV smudged with little baby handprints and places she tried to draw on it with crayons.
It feels like she’ll be graduating high school by the time the next season kicks off, so in the meantime, here are my Top 6 suggestions for things you can watch while waiting for GOT to return to Sunday nights.
1. Mad Dogs (Amazon original series) - I have no idea how this series is still mired in obscurity, but at least it means there aren’t many spoilers out there to avoid as you get through it. It’s an action/comedy/drama story of a group of college friends who must get out of quite a pickle in South America as middle-aged men. The fact that no one knows about it yet reminds me of the idea that no one knew about ‘Breaking Bad’ for so long after the series was over. Mad Dogs is no ‘Breaking Bad,’ but it is absolutely binge-watch worthy and wonderful.
2. Once NFL season starts, we’ll have Sunday Night Football and it’ll be like you never missed Game of Thrones for about 16 weeks.
3. Watch TED Talks. You can stream hundreds of them about just about any subject of interest to you. For a little bonus fun, play TED Talk roulette where you close your eyes, scroll down and pick one at random. You’ll never realize how much you can learn from a person who’s life mission is something you’ve never even thought about like the examination of flag meanings or fish-farming.
4. At some point, we’ll be getting a new Curb Your Enthusiasm, which to me is about like learning we’ll get a few extra Christmases here pretty soon. Who knows whether or not that will happen before the next GOT season, though.
5. Speaking of original HBO programming, Westworld is due out in Fall of 2016 which seems to be a sci-fi western with skeletons, aliens and possibly robots.
I think.
It could just turn out to be awesome.
6. The talk of robots, AI or synths (in this case) reminds me to list my final suggestion called Humans. It takes place in very-near future Britain where culture is dominated by robotics.
9. Today I Learned on Reddit
- A hotel in Dawson City, Yukon has a drink called the sourtoe cocktail which is whiskey with a disgusting mummified human toe in the glass. In 2013, an out-of-towner drank the toe (you’re only supposed to let it touch your lips) and was fined $500 by the hotel.
- 1,140 people have been diagnosed with cancer as a result of “exposure to toxins at Ground Zero” during and after the 9/11 attacks.
- Louisiana French as a language is dying; In 1968, 1 million people spoke it, in 2016, only 150K-200K do.
- During the Revolutionary War, double the number of soldiers died from illness than died in battle.
- Bolivia’s largest prison doesn’t have guards and operates as its own society; inmates have jobs, pay rent for their cells (where their families can live with them) and elect their own prison officials.
- Texting and driving in six times more likely to cause an accident than driving drunk.
- Visa and MasterCard started out as not-for-profit companies and only became for-profit in 2006.
- There are more fried chicken restaurants in South Korea than there are McDonald’s worldwide.
- Shooting a free-throw “granny-style” is a much better and more effective way to consistently score points at the line, but it looks so stupid that players won’t do it.
10. Happy 4th of July
Hope errrbody had a good one.
. . .
1. Updated Projected Three-Deep: Offense
photo via UT Athletics
QB
Shane Buechele (true FR)
Tyrone Swoopes (SR)
Jerrod Heard (SO)
- Very easy to project, and no changes from the original projection made post-spring game. We are already doing our fire-drills around the old OB offices in preparation for the response from the community once fall camp gets here and Tyrone Swoopes is the first QB up with the starters. However, I think all Texas football fans, coaches and analysts foresee Buechele taking the reins fully and firmly through fall camp.
RB
D'Onta Foreman (JR)
Chris Warren (SO)
Kirk Johnson (SO)
- Again, very easy to project and no changes from the original. The interesting and new wild-card here will certainly be Kyle Porter (FR) who has come to Texas in impressive fashion and who people close to the program believe could have an impact, even as a freshman.
WR (right split end)
John Burt (SO)
Dorian Leonard (JR)
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps (true FR)
- Hemphill-Mapps comes in as a player who most envision as a slot receiver, but numbers (and talent) at the inside WR positions could force RHM to the outside, where he’s big enough — and enough of a playmaker — to fit in.
WR (left split end)
Collin Johnson (true FR)
Lorenzo Joe (JR)
Davion Curtis (true FR)
- Outside of Leonard and Burt, Lorenzo Joe is the only WR on the current roster who has taken snaps at the split end — either last season or in the spring game — but the new staff has used him most as an inside receiver. It’s safe to predict Joe will continue to get work at both positions and find playing time as often as he can in relief of starters. Texas is going to run 100 plays a week on offense; there will be snaps to go around.
photo via UT Athletics
SLOT WR
Armanti Foreman (JR)
Lorenzo Joe (JR)
OR
Jacorey Warrick (SR)
- There is a possibility that Texas starts out training camp with Foreman lined up at the left split end with the first group opposite John Burt, but to me that feels a little like Tyrone Swoopes lining up as the first QB. You have a pretty strong feeling a transition of some sort will occur at some point during camp. Johnson will eventually take over the position, bumping Foreman in to the slot where he’ll still be plenty effective as a dynamic playmaker in space.
WR4
Devin Duvernay (true FR)
OR
Deandre McNeal (SO)
Jake Oliver (JR)
- The WR4 should be in line to get around 35% of snaps in 2016 and that slice of pie could be divvied up between a whole cast of characters. Guys like Ryan Newsome and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (true FR) could easily factor in. However, Duvernay comes in as a speed weapon unlike any other Texas has on its roster or has had since Marquise Goodwin at the receiver position. He seems like the kind of player you stick out there with the first group to see if he can run away with a job. The things a wide receiver with his kind of speed can open up in a combo-route-based Sterlin Gilbert passing attack by exploiting defenders up the seam can’t be taught.
TE/FB
Caleb Bluiett (SR)
Andrew Beck (JR)
Peyton Aucoin (true FR)
- We've heard that Blake Whiteley (JR) was running routes, catching the football and hitting the sled to end spring ball, but I can’t pencil him into the mix until we definitively know that he is back in action again. Whiteley’s injuries have been troublesome and frustrating to say the least.
photo via UT Athletics
LT
Connor Williams (SO)
Jean Delance (true FR)
OR
Buck Major (RS FR)
- Texas doesn't want to have an injury here, neither Delance or Major will likely be ready this season. If an injury were to occur to Williams early on, OL coach Matt Mattox would likely send a reserve from the right side to duty over either of these two developmental depth players.
LG
Brandon Hodges (JR)
OR
Denzel Okafor (true FR)
OR
Patrick Hudson (true FR)
- The most open and up-for-grabs position on the entire Texas offense in 2013 just got even murkier with the addition of Patrick Hudson. This could go any direction and will be important to personnel at other positions for a number of reasons. The other, optimal outcome would be Kent Perkins (SR) sliding down to the left guard while one of the backup right tackles steps into a starting role.
C
Zach Shackelford (true FR)
Elijah Rodriguez (SO)
Terrell Cuney (SO)
- The same projection as post-spring game. Elijah Rodriguez at left tackle for the spring game did not have promising results and it seems like a move back to center (as Rodriguez practiced for most of the spring) is probable as Terrell Cuney is not a suitable option at this time in his development.
RG
Patrick Vahe (SO)
Denzel Okafor (true FR)
OR
Tope Imade (true FR)
- Alex Anderson has been one of the bigger disappointments of the last few years in recruiting and he’s been dropped out of my projected three-deep. He was a healthy scratch in the spring game while walk-ons played. Expect a couple of freshmen to get in some good work and key reps versus the ones behind Patrick Vahe once camp starts.
RT
Kent Perkins (SR)
Tristan Nickelson (JR)
OR
Patrick Hudson (true FR)
- Optimally, as discussed, Perkins would bump inside and that possibility just became a smidgen less slight with the addition of Patrick Hudson. Hudson had the best balance and strength of any State of Texas offensive lineman in the 2016 class. Strength hasn’t been an issue defending the front-side edge of the Texas offense, but balance has been a key one going back to Josh Cochran. Landing Patrick Hudson was one of the most important things to happen to Texas football in the year 2016.
2. Updated Projected Three-Deep: Defense
photo via UT Athletics
SDE
Charles Omenihu (SO)
OR
Bryce Cottrell (SR)
Andrew Fitzgerald (true FR)
- No update from the first projection, Charles O. remains one of the favorites to be a breakout player in the 2016 season as he steps into higher snap percentages. As for depth, the Andrew Fitzgerald projection still looks good as he’s come in this summer looking beastly and is already impressing the coaches with his strength and speed.
NT
Paul Boyette (SR)
Chris Nelson (SO)
Gerald Wilbon (true FR)
- Originally, I had Jordan Elliott projected to start out at nose, but after hearing from a few folks during the first semester of summer workouts, it’s seeming more likely that it’ll be Wilbon handling things to start at the shade.
DT
Poona Ford (JR)
Jordan Elliott (true FR)
OR
D'Andre Christmas (true FR)
- Christmas pulled a reverse-Hemphill (which is nothing like a reverse Oreo) when he came to Texas by leaving off one of his previously hyphenated last names instead of adding one. Christmas has such a quick first step and such nice explosion that he’s been a shoe-in to handle the three-technique as a penetrator from jump street.
FOX
Naashon Hughes (JR)
OR
Breckyn Hager (SO)
Erick Fowler (true FR)
- I’m not sure that Naashon Hughes feels safe about his job at this time and, with all due respect to Hughes, he probably shouldn’t. He was only Texas’ 24th most productive defensive player on a per-snap basis last season per the Deep Dig. While it was at a different position, Hager was still capable of making an impact as the fifth-most disruptive on a per-snap basis by comparison. Add in Erick Fowler arriving on campus who is arguably the best player in the whole recruiting class and Hughes’ seat may actually feel hotter than Charlie Strong’s coming into the season. Both need big years.
photo via UT Athletics
MIKE LB
Malik Jefferson (SO)
Tim Cole (SR)
OR
Cameron Townsend (RS FR)
- Same projection as I originally had. At some point, though, fans would hope that Demarco Boyd (true FR) and Townsend would push a veteran depth-player like Cole to earn backup duties to Jefferson.
WILL LB
Anthony Wheeler (SO)
Jeffery McCulloch (true FR)
OR
Edwin Freeman (SO)
- Between McCulloch, Wheeler, Freeman and Jefferson, the future of the Texas LB corps is set for the next 2-3 years. Funny thing happens when you start developing true, quality and big-time depth, though: you have to worry more and more about guys leaving early for the NFL.
Secondary
photo via UT Athletics
NICKEL
PJ Locke (SO)
John Bonney (SO)
Antwuan Davis (JR)
RIGHT CB
Holton Hill (SO)
Kris Boyd (SO)
Eric Cuffee (true FR)
LEFT CB
Davante Davis (SO)
Sheroid Evans (SR)
OR
Antwuan Davis (JR)
SAFETY ("free")
Jason Hall (JR)
OR
Brandon Jones (true FR)
Chris Brown (true FR)
SAFETY ("strong")
Dylan Haines (SR)
OR
Deshon Elliott (SO)
Kevin Vaccaro (SR)
- Texas has two young, soon-to-be lockdown corners in Davante Davis and Holton Hill which makes you wonder how Kris Boyd will fit in in the future barring injury to either player. PJ Locke seems to have a firm grip on the nickel job, so a move of Boyd to cover the slot doesn’t seem likely, either. Fans should expect to see Boyd most when Texas goes to it’s dime-pressure “Cheetah” package which was used with more and more frequency (and a ton of success) through the 2015 season. If Boyd could be the sixth DB and “cheetah”-player in this package, that could give you a personnel grouping that represents having the true 11 best players on the field to defend against certain offensive looks in the passing game.
3. Scholarship players not projected on the three-deep (offense or defense)
photo via UT Athletics
QB:
Kai Locksley (RS FR)
Matthew Merrick (RS FR)
RB:
Tristian Houston (RS FR)
Roderick Bernard (JR)
Kyle Porter (true FR)
WR:
Ryan Newsome (SO)
Lil'Jordan Humphrey (true FR)
TE:
TE/WR Garrett Gray (SO)
Blake Whiteley (JR)
OL:
Alex Anderson (SO)
Jake McMillon (SO)
Garrett Thomas (RS FR)
JP Urquidez (true FR)
DT:
Chris Daniels (true FR)
Marcel Southall (true FR)
DE:
Quincy Vasser (SR)
Malcolm Roach (true FR)
LB:
Demarco Boyd (true FR)
DB:
Donovan Duvernay (true FR)
4. Buy or Sell
These are questions submitted by OB members.
B/S: Texas o-line play will be better than average this year.
BUY - If Shackelford can play at only a very slightly below-average level and we can expect the same from the left guard position, the average output of the entire unit should, for the first time in the history of the Deep Dig, be a bit above-average.
Property in Waco. buy or sell?
SELL - They hate me there.
B/S: Art Briles is a head D1 football coach again. If Buy, B/S one of his players at his new gig sexually assaults someone.
SELL - I could MAYBE see him coaching JUCO, but honestly, I don’t think he’ll ever be trusted to have the lives of young, impressionable people in his hands ever again. He’s too good a coach to never coach again, though, so I think the NFL will be his eventual landing spot.
B/S: five eventual all Americans between last two recruiting classes.
BUY - You already have one in Malik, right? At least as a preseason selection. Vahe and Williams have already been freshman AA’s. It’d be a tougher question to answer if you asked if there would be 7-8.
Buy or sell. Art Briles is behind the scenes helping with game plans, etc. I just can't see it not happening with Kendall as the OC. How many of his fingerprints are still on this program?
BOTH - I’ll buy the fact that his fingerprints are all over the program (it’s his system, players and assistants), but sell the idea that he’ll be monitoring things behind the scenes and pulling strings like some sort of mad puppeteer.
B/S: at least 2 former Baylor players become starters by the end of the of the season.
SELL - But it’s close. I think it’s likely that Hudson becomes a starter, but I’m not sure of it. I think Duvernay will be an instant contributor, but I don’t feel comfortable pegging him as an instant starter before he even gets on campus. Of those two players, I believe fans will see significant contributions and I would not be shocked if both ended up starters by the end of the season.
B/S: no additional coaches will be let go at Baylor before the season starts unless something new is made public before.
BUY - Baylor has (unbelievably) received such little heat for their sneaky move to keep possibly-implicated assistant coaches that my gut tells me they’ll make it through to football season without firing them. I say this even knowing that Texas Monthly will have a new piece dropping regarding Baylor in July.
B/S: 9 wins and Charlie's mojo is enough to flip JK Dobbins.
SELL - 9 wins would do a lot of good for Texas’ “mojo” (can you believe that’s only two wins less than Strong has had during his entire time at Texas thus far?) but it doesn’t do anything for the currently stacked depth chart at RB. I know Suchomel has said not to shut the door on this one, I just don’t see how Texas’ pitch is anywhere near strong enough to flip a player like Dobbins who’s surely interested in early playing time.
Buy or sell: Walker Little is a true freshman starter, regardless of where he goes to school.
BUY - You have got to get that kid on the field as soon as you can regardless of the locale. The only way I could see him taking a year or so to get to that level is if he went to a school like Texas A&M circa 2012 or so where both a Joeckel and a Matthews were already on board.
B/S: Texas plays in a New Year's Day Bowl Jan 2017?
SELL - I need a premise to make such a statement, and regardless of anyone’s positivity about Strong’s magnificent showings as a recruiter, they’re all forgotten the day doormats like Iowa State pound Texas into submission on the actual field. Plain and simple: I have to see an organized, focused and consistently not-embarrassing Texas football product on game days before making such a bold preseason projection.
Speaking of bold preseason football predictions …
5. Fantasy Football Kickoff Weekend
It was “fantasy football kickoff weekend” at SiriusXM fantasy sports radio, and, as usual, hosts were asked to make “bold predictions” about the upcoming fantasy football season as program imaging celebrated the official shift from baseball-centric to football-centric content on the channel.
Here were the predictions myself and my co-hosts came up with on our radio show RosterWatch (2-4pm central on Sundays in the offseason, 5-7pm central on Saturdays in-season):
Rams RB Todd Gurley will be the No. 1 RB in fantasy for 2016 in both standard and PPR leagues.
- He’s the best we’ve ever scouted in the history of our show/company and fans are going to see a new gear out of Gurley in 2016 as I’m nearly sure he was not quite ever 100% in 2015 coming off of ACL surgery. It will be a Todd Gurley offense in LA to start the new franchise.
Denver RB CJ Anderson (4th-5th Round ADP currently) will be a legitimate RB1 in 12-team leagues.
- He got swindled last season by a disjointed system that had to adjust to Brock Osweiler being thrown into a Peyton Manning offense and also an organizational delusion about the possible effectiveness of Ronnie Hillman as a runner. Anderson came back to Denver after getting bigger offers from Miami and Chicago because John Elway let him know he was going to be the horse in 2016 as the team navigated its first post-Manning foray back into the fold.
Giants rookie WR Sterling Shepard (current ADP of WR49) will be a Top 20 option at the position and solid WR2 for fantasy.
- This was a prediction by my co-host the Trashman, and unlike most of the garbage he spews, I actually liked this one. The Giants need a No. 2 opposite Beckham and I have no faith in Victor Cruz returning to his old self.
Redskins QB Kirk Cousins (current 10th-11th Round ADP) will be a Top 5 fantasy QB for 2016 in leagues with traditional scoring.
- We were finally vindicated in 2015 after it looked like Cousins, one of our favorite QB prospects to ever scout live, was going to turn into a broken-down turnover machine. We all saw that was not the case last season as Cousins will enter this one primed for a big contract year and bigger eventual pay day. Cousins was QB9 for fantasy last season and with improvement in many facets of the offense, a jump to No. 5 almost just doesn’t seem too bold. He’s free money in the 11th round of early drafts.
The BIG ONE: Steelers WR Antonio Brown will not only break Marvin Harrison’s receptions record in 2016, he’s going to break Megatron’s receiving yards record, also.
- Pretty self-explanatory, and it sounds like a ridiculously over-the-top prediction, right? The crazy part is - it isn’t that over-the-top. Brown would have broken these records last season had Ben Roethlisberger been healthy for the entire year. Add in no Martavis Bryant to siphon off deep targets and no Heath Miller to bite into intermediate looks … it’s going to be an absolute monster. He’s your No. 1 pick in 2016 fantasy regardless of format.
What is your bold prediction for the 2016 fantasy season?
6. DFS Legislation in New York
Speaking of fantasy, I had not-so-good news for the industry from Illinois the last time I filled in on the 10 Thoughts column, but this one brings great news from New York. The state’s legislators listened to their constituents rather than the misinformed opinion of a crooked Attorney General in a way I can only hope Texas will mimic when its legislative session begins in January.
The legalization and regulation of daily fantasy sports in New York state was not only a major financial win for the industry’s two largest companies, FanDuel and DraftKings (as the largest state for DFS both in terms of revenue and users), it was also a major victory for the people who play and love the games everywhere.
Common-sense legislation is becoming more and more commonplace. This will lead to not only a more stable and robust industry in the long-term, but also one where the consumer is protected and guaranteed a level playing field in his or her games of choice.
7. “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” - Kevin Durant
It’s going to sound like sacrilege around these parts to say anything even somewhat-critical of Kevin Durant following his Sunday announcement that he’d be joining the Golden State Warriors ... but here goes nothing.
(Cue up the ‘stick to football, Dunlap’ responses).
Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder were one game away from dethroning the Warriors in the 2016 NBA western conference finals — a team many basketball fans and analysts had been penciling in as NBA champions for the next five seasons. The Splash Brothers should’ve been preemptively enshrined in the hall of fame because they had single-handedly changed the game of basketball through three-point acrobatics.
When Lebron James and the hard-luck Cavs defeated God’s gift to basketball after starting out down 3-1, #Believeland ensued and everybody forgot that the Warriors are the best team in basketball. Everyone except Kevin Durant; he didn’t forget. The Warriors must have certainly left an impression on him.
Durant left his team to go play for a better one. Within one game is the closest he and his Thunder team could possibly ever come to beating his new one in a seven-game series.
Kevin Durant is a grown man, and he has big-boy decisions to make and it shouldn’t matter what any pundit says or does — he’s bigger than any media narrative and he could buy most of the newspapers.
But make no mistake, Kevin Durant did not think he could beat the Warriors. Who could blame him for running away to a better situation? Say it isn’t the most honorable thing? Fine. But as for a business decision, it cements your legacy to win championships in the NBA.
What’s ridiculous is comparing Kevin Durant’s free agency decision to Lebron James’ 2010 free agency decision, which seems to have become the popular narrative.
“Both guys left their teams for better ones to go win championships.”
No.
Lebron James went to a Miami Heat team that did end up winning championships, but was certainly no 2016 Golden State Warriors. The Heat had won a championship four seasons ago at that time, but that championship came at the end of a then-bygone Shaquille O’Neal era. Lebron James was not joining that team; Dwayne Wade was the only significant holdover. He was joining a team that had, in four seasons, not made it past the first round of the playoffs — and in one season, missed them completely.
Doesn’t sound exactly like God’s gift to basketball out by the bay that Durant just joined up with, does it?
8. Game of Thrones Withdrawal Suggestions
It seems like GOT makes us wait way too long before a new season starts.
I remember always associating the return of the hit HBO series with future life-markers at the culmination of its season finales: “Wow, she’ll be almost two when the next season starts!” and the like. “She’ll be talking and walking … just a little person by then,” Momma would say as she gazed at her infant daughter in the baby monitor, wrapped up like a burrito in her swaddle blanket.
The next time we saw Tyrion Lannister, we were picking up toys left abandoned in the wake of Hurricane Dash earlier that afternoon. Watching the drama unfold on a TV smudged with little baby handprints and places she tried to draw on it with crayons.
It feels like she’ll be graduating high school by the time the next season kicks off, so in the meantime, here are my Top 6 suggestions for things you can watch while waiting for GOT to return to Sunday nights.
1. Mad Dogs (Amazon original series) - I have no idea how this series is still mired in obscurity, but at least it means there aren’t many spoilers out there to avoid as you get through it. It’s an action/comedy/drama story of a group of college friends who must get out of quite a pickle in South America as middle-aged men. The fact that no one knows about it yet reminds me of the idea that no one knew about ‘Breaking Bad’ for so long after the series was over. Mad Dogs is no ‘Breaking Bad,’ but it is absolutely binge-watch worthy and wonderful.
2. Once NFL season starts, we’ll have Sunday Night Football and it’ll be like you never missed Game of Thrones for about 16 weeks.
3. Watch TED Talks. You can stream hundreds of them about just about any subject of interest to you. For a little bonus fun, play TED Talk roulette where you close your eyes, scroll down and pick one at random. You’ll never realize how much you can learn from a person who’s life mission is something you’ve never even thought about like the examination of flag meanings or fish-farming.
4. At some point, we’ll be getting a new Curb Your Enthusiasm, which to me is about like learning we’ll get a few extra Christmases here pretty soon. Who knows whether or not that will happen before the next GOT season, though.
5. Speaking of original HBO programming, Westworld is due out in Fall of 2016 which seems to be a sci-fi western with skeletons, aliens and possibly robots.
I think.
It could just turn out to be awesome.
6. The talk of robots, AI or synths (in this case) reminds me to list my final suggestion called Humans. It takes place in very-near future Britain where culture is dominated by robotics.
9. Today I Learned on Reddit
- A hotel in Dawson City, Yukon has a drink called the sourtoe cocktail which is whiskey with a disgusting mummified human toe in the glass. In 2013, an out-of-towner drank the toe (you’re only supposed to let it touch your lips) and was fined $500 by the hotel.
- 1,140 people have been diagnosed with cancer as a result of “exposure to toxins at Ground Zero” during and after the 9/11 attacks.
- Louisiana French as a language is dying; In 1968, 1 million people spoke it, in 2016, only 150K-200K do.
- During the Revolutionary War, double the number of soldiers died from illness than died in battle.
- Bolivia’s largest prison doesn’t have guards and operates as its own society; inmates have jobs, pay rent for their cells (where their families can live with them) and elect their own prison officials.
- Texting and driving in six times more likely to cause an accident than driving drunk.
- Visa and MasterCard started out as not-for-profit companies and only became for-profit in 2006.
- There are more fried chicken restaurants in South Korea than there are McDonald’s worldwide.
- Shooting a free-throw “granny-style” is a much better and more effective way to consistently score points at the line, but it looks so stupid that players won’t do it.
10. Happy 4th of July
Hope errrbody had a good one.
