By the end of the week, the Longhorns will have played three games that actually count. Yes, college baseball season is just a few days away. Let’s take a look at the Texas offense as it heads into the 2020 season:
Photo: Texas Baseball
THE OFFENSE NEEDS THESE GUYS THE MOST
Any offense that will lean on freshmen or inexperience at the division one level throughout a significant portion of its lineup must receive consistent production from its veterans. If the Longhorns are going to be better than an average offense this season, they need Eric Kennedy (.310/.382/.418 in 2019), Duke Ellis (.266/.411/.330), Austin Todd (.256/.344/.374), DJ Petrinsky (just 39 at-bats in an injury-shortened season) and Zach Zubia (.252/.385/.405) to provide consistent presence and production.
The good news about that group for Texas is I see realistic room for growth statistically for Ellis, Todd, and Zubia. Both Todd and Zubia have, under the new guidance of hitting coach Troy Tulowitzki, tweaked their hand placement in the batter’s box, and Zubia is almost unrecognizable after reshaping his body this summer to cut fat and tap into more athleticism. Zubia should be able to show his plus-plus raw power more while Todd just needs a healthy season to put his hit tool on full display. As for Ellis, it’s hard to improve 45 walks last season, but cutting down on strikeouts (team-high 60 in 2019; 24.8 strikeout percentage) is a good place to start, which should raise his average with more balls in play.
Kennedy was so good last season it’s difficult to project improvement in batting average and on base percentage because of his aggressive approach. While I could see a slight dip in batting average, I think that will be the result of increased slugging percentage as the sophomore drives the ball more. Petrinsky was arguably the best hitter in the fall of 2018. Now on the track towards being 100-percent healthy, he’s capable of replicating or exceeding his .452 slugging percentage in 2018.
THE BREAKOUT CANDIDATE
This area is normally reserved for a young player who showed bright flashes his first or second year on campus. But I can’t think of “breakout” without thinking of freshman Douglas Hodo III. A star during the fall offseason, Hodo is a plus athlete with good balance in the box, which accompanies a short, quick, strong swing. It’s a pretty swing and allows the young hitter to let the ball travel deep and use all fields. Toss in plus speed, and there’s a good chance Hodo, whose father Doug was a starter in the outfield for the 1983 national champions, is this year’s Kennedy.
You’re probably asking about playing time. Talented young players can force their way into the lineup, and I fully expect that to happen with Hodo. Don’t be surprised if he starts immediately whether at designated hitter or in an outfield rotation with Texas using the DH spot to maximize its lineup and keep its outfield fresh.
THE WILDCARD
Fortunately for Texas, Hodo wasn’t the only freshmen hitter who stood out in the fall. Trey Faltine finished the fall driving the ball with authority, and Brenden Dixon had a homer in scrimmages against McLennan and San Jacinto. However, Andre Duplantier II wowed everyone by consistently hammering the ball all over the field.
So, why is he a wildcard? Anytime a hitter fractures the hamate bone it clouds the projection moving forward because it’s a difficult injury to project. Some hitters are back to hitting in a month and quickly regain their power and strength; other hitters are back to swinging, but it takes months before their power returns. Based on the projected timetable David Pierce gave the media and when surgery occurred, the earliest Duplantier starts swinging a bat is probably sometime late next week.
Duplantier was so good with the bat he was projected to start at third base this season, and the hot corner will now likely be manned by junior college transfer Murphy Stehly. Coaches were in awe of how quickly Duplantier made adjustments in the batter’s box, applied coaching, and basically retooled his swing almost completely; he’s a rare player in that regard. So, he’s likely to bounce back quicker than most young hitters, but he’s still missing valuable scrimmage at-bats during his first collegiate season after being known more as a pitcher than hitter in high school.
THE BIG CHANGE
By now Texas hitters understand Tulowitzki is all about competitiveness, confidence, and putting in the extra work required to improve. A grinder in the truest sense of the word throughout his outstanding professional career, Tulowitzki will breathe as much intensity and competitiveness into a lineup as any coach could. However, he also fully understands the ups-and-downs that come with hitting and how to keep hitters in the right positive mindset for success.
If hitters aren’t going to consistently compete in the box, they will fall out of favor quickly with UT’s new hitting coach.
THE FUTURE
It’s not easy for freshmen to immediately excel at a place like Texas given the big jump in competition, expectations, and more games than they’ve ever played before on top of academic requirements. So, yeah, there are going to be a lot of ups-and-downs with players like Dixon, Faltine, Silas Ardoin, Duplantier when he returns, and even the breakout pick, Hodo.
Something I keep hearing about and going back to with this group, though: the collective mental makeup, work ethic, and leadership intangibles these young players have should allow them to weather the upcoming storm better than most young players. I’ve seen The University of Texas eat freshmen alive because of the mental challenges that accompany playing in that prestigious uniform against big-time college competition. Heck, just look back to last season at Bryce Reagan.
I think this group, collectively, is mentally tough, and has played and won a ton of baseball games. Faltine was a Team USA member and standout in select and high school forever; Dixon starred for arguably the best high school program in the nation the last two seasons; Duplantier has a relative in the big leagues; Hodo’s father played at Texas; Ardoin’s father was a MLB catcher. That stuff matters… a lot.
THE BIG QUESTION
Well, the obvious one: are the Longhorns going to hit enough and consistently? If the key returning pieces collectively improve even just a little and the influx of young talent provides some boost, I think it’s reasonable for a team slash line of something like .265/.370/.390, which would be good enough to compete for a league title.
Texas is going to replace about one-fourth of poor production in 2019 with more talented players capable of providing better, perhaps significantly, production. It’s also going to be deeper, more versatile, and more talented.
Photo: Texas Baseball
THE OFFENSE NEEDS THESE GUYS THE MOST
Any offense that will lean on freshmen or inexperience at the division one level throughout a significant portion of its lineup must receive consistent production from its veterans. If the Longhorns are going to be better than an average offense this season, they need Eric Kennedy (.310/.382/.418 in 2019), Duke Ellis (.266/.411/.330), Austin Todd (.256/.344/.374), DJ Petrinsky (just 39 at-bats in an injury-shortened season) and Zach Zubia (.252/.385/.405) to provide consistent presence and production.
The good news about that group for Texas is I see realistic room for growth statistically for Ellis, Todd, and Zubia. Both Todd and Zubia have, under the new guidance of hitting coach Troy Tulowitzki, tweaked their hand placement in the batter’s box, and Zubia is almost unrecognizable after reshaping his body this summer to cut fat and tap into more athleticism. Zubia should be able to show his plus-plus raw power more while Todd just needs a healthy season to put his hit tool on full display. As for Ellis, it’s hard to improve 45 walks last season, but cutting down on strikeouts (team-high 60 in 2019; 24.8 strikeout percentage) is a good place to start, which should raise his average with more balls in play.
Kennedy was so good last season it’s difficult to project improvement in batting average and on base percentage because of his aggressive approach. While I could see a slight dip in batting average, I think that will be the result of increased slugging percentage as the sophomore drives the ball more. Petrinsky was arguably the best hitter in the fall of 2018. Now on the track towards being 100-percent healthy, he’s capable of replicating or exceeding his .452 slugging percentage in 2018.
THE BREAKOUT CANDIDATE
This area is normally reserved for a young player who showed bright flashes his first or second year on campus. But I can’t think of “breakout” without thinking of freshman Douglas Hodo III. A star during the fall offseason, Hodo is a plus athlete with good balance in the box, which accompanies a short, quick, strong swing. It’s a pretty swing and allows the young hitter to let the ball travel deep and use all fields. Toss in plus speed, and there’s a good chance Hodo, whose father Doug was a starter in the outfield for the 1983 national champions, is this year’s Kennedy.
You’re probably asking about playing time. Talented young players can force their way into the lineup, and I fully expect that to happen with Hodo. Don’t be surprised if he starts immediately whether at designated hitter or in an outfield rotation with Texas using the DH spot to maximize its lineup and keep its outfield fresh.
THE WILDCARD
Fortunately for Texas, Hodo wasn’t the only freshmen hitter who stood out in the fall. Trey Faltine finished the fall driving the ball with authority, and Brenden Dixon had a homer in scrimmages against McLennan and San Jacinto. However, Andre Duplantier II wowed everyone by consistently hammering the ball all over the field.
So, why is he a wildcard? Anytime a hitter fractures the hamate bone it clouds the projection moving forward because it’s a difficult injury to project. Some hitters are back to hitting in a month and quickly regain their power and strength; other hitters are back to swinging, but it takes months before their power returns. Based on the projected timetable David Pierce gave the media and when surgery occurred, the earliest Duplantier starts swinging a bat is probably sometime late next week.
Duplantier was so good with the bat he was projected to start at third base this season, and the hot corner will now likely be manned by junior college transfer Murphy Stehly. Coaches were in awe of how quickly Duplantier made adjustments in the batter’s box, applied coaching, and basically retooled his swing almost completely; he’s a rare player in that regard. So, he’s likely to bounce back quicker than most young hitters, but he’s still missing valuable scrimmage at-bats during his first collegiate season after being known more as a pitcher than hitter in high school.
THE BIG CHANGE
By now Texas hitters understand Tulowitzki is all about competitiveness, confidence, and putting in the extra work required to improve. A grinder in the truest sense of the word throughout his outstanding professional career, Tulowitzki will breathe as much intensity and competitiveness into a lineup as any coach could. However, he also fully understands the ups-and-downs that come with hitting and how to keep hitters in the right positive mindset for success.
If hitters aren’t going to consistently compete in the box, they will fall out of favor quickly with UT’s new hitting coach.
THE FUTURE
It’s not easy for freshmen to immediately excel at a place like Texas given the big jump in competition, expectations, and more games than they’ve ever played before on top of academic requirements. So, yeah, there are going to be a lot of ups-and-downs with players like Dixon, Faltine, Silas Ardoin, Duplantier when he returns, and even the breakout pick, Hodo.
Something I keep hearing about and going back to with this group, though: the collective mental makeup, work ethic, and leadership intangibles these young players have should allow them to weather the upcoming storm better than most young players. I’ve seen The University of Texas eat freshmen alive because of the mental challenges that accompany playing in that prestigious uniform against big-time college competition. Heck, just look back to last season at Bryce Reagan.
I think this group, collectively, is mentally tough, and has played and won a ton of baseball games. Faltine was a Team USA member and standout in select and high school forever; Dixon starred for arguably the best high school program in the nation the last two seasons; Duplantier has a relative in the big leagues; Hodo’s father played at Texas; Ardoin’s father was a MLB catcher. That stuff matters… a lot.
THE BIG QUESTION
Well, the obvious one: are the Longhorns going to hit enough and consistently? If the key returning pieces collectively improve even just a little and the influx of young talent provides some boost, I think it’s reasonable for a team slash line of something like .265/.370/.390, which would be good enough to compete for a league title.
Texas is going to replace about one-fourth of poor production in 2019 with more talented players capable of providing better, perhaps significantly, production. It’s also going to be deeper, more versatile, and more talented.
