Let me start by stating that I have a theory that is somewhat damning of the recruiting industry, including Rivals.
Without losing you before I ever get to the meat and potatoes of this article by drifting off on a 3,000-word tangent about my developing theories, let me give you the 30-second elevator talk of the foundation of my position.
a. While there is now more information available than ever before about the skill and talent of players across the country that allows recruiting folks to make an inexact science as much of a science as an inexact science can be, it also creates a bit of confirmation bias in the rankings.
b. Over the course of a 24-36 month window, the rankings begin to focus the most on the players that have been evaluated the most.
c. One of my favorite tiers of recruits inside the state of Texas are high three-star prospects because history shows that they often outperform their mid- to low-four star peers.
d. My contention is that some of the best prospects in the state of Texas get buried in the high three-star range out of the subconscious confirmation bias that exists.
Therefore, I went through the entire Lone Star Recruiting Top 100 and charted the number of in-person evaluations made on each prospect by the Rivals network, not including individual sites because that would be almost impossible to accurately account for. When it comes to a guy like Houston Episcopal defensive tackle Marvin Wilson, I pretty much lost count of the number of times he's been scouted when you consider the countless camp appearances he's made on a national and regional level since his sophomore season.
My goal is to find the anti-Marvin Wilsons of the world, guys that weren't seen at multiple Rivals camps, The Opening or multiple live-game settings in hopes of finding the truest big-time sleepers in the state.
Based on the current LSR rankings, here's a look at the Top 10 most underrated prospects in Texas based on the reality that they are truly under-rated through under-evaluation.
Let's begin.
1. Montrell Estell (Hooks/Athlete/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 63 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: From the moment I first watched Estell following his sophomore season, I've been in love with the kid. While I have him ranked as the No. 14 prospect in Texas and he holds an offer list that includes Alabama and Notre Dame, Rivals has been cool on him for a while, but that might have to do with the fact that he's never been seen by the Rivals national recruiting team because he never attended a single major camp and was never scouted in person. He's the only prospect in the LSR Top 35 that the Rivals national people haven't seen at all in person.
2. Keynel McZeal (Port-Neches Groves/TE/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 75 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Like Estell, McZeal is a recruiting unicorn that attended zero national or regional camps that I'm aware of, while also not being seen in a game setting. Outside of his A&M offer, his next best offer if probably from Tulane, yet if you watch his film, you'll see a guy whose talent just jumps off the screen. While McZeal has been seen by various people in the network on the school site level, the national people haven't had a look at him as far as I can tell, which makes him one of three people in the state LSR Top 50 that you can say that about.
3. Major Tennison (Bullard/TE/Committed to Alabama)
Rivals (Low four star/5.8/No. 39 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I don't think anyone goes out of their way on the recruiting circuit to go to Bullard because if you go to Bullard, you're only going to see one game with a prospect all night. Meanwhile, Tennison attended zero regional or national camps over the course of the last two seasons. It's actually kind of amazing that he ranks as a four-star prospect in the Rivals rankings, given the particulars of his recruitment. As far as I can tell, he's the only kid in Texas that is ranked as a four-star without the benefit of an in-person evaluation.
4. Alan Abie (Keller Timber Creek/OL/Committed to SMU)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 52 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: No major camps and no in-game evaluations, yet this SMU commit has a very solid offer list.
5. Nelson Mbanasor (Pflugerville Hendrickson/DE/Committed to Texas Tech)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 66 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: While he's a player that quite a few team site reporters have seen over the last two years, I don't see where he was seen in person in any capacity from the Rivals national people. His film and offer list suggest he needs a closer inspection.
6. Tyquez Hampton (El Paso Dorado/WR/Committed to Utah)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 89 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I'm shocked that a kid from El Paso is flying under the radar, shocked, I tell you. I wonder if he had gone to one Rivals camp along the way if he wouldn't be a state top-50 guy right now.
7. Zach McKinney (Weatherford/DT/Committed to Oklahoma)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 82 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I don't believe any of the Rivals national recruiting team members have seen him in person. His exploding offer list suggests that he's being slept on.
8. Derek Kersetter (San Antonio Reagan/OL/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 57 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: The freshly minted Texas commit is a borderline four-star prospect, but outside of the team sites (see Orangebloods favorite Mike Craven), I'm not sure anyone at Rivals has personally seen him in action. That will change this week when he's in San Antonio for the Army Bowl.
9. Marquez Bimage (Brenham/LB/Uncommitted)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 53 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Was a star at one of the Rivals camps earlier this year, but I don't believe the Rivals national team saw him in a game setting, which means that while Rivals got a great up-close look at him and really liked him, I don't believe they have seen him in his best setting. Otherwise, we're possibly talking about a top 30 in-state ranking.
10. Roshauud Paul (Bremond/LB/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 65 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Yes, he's one of the state's top small school players of all-time, but he attended virtually no camps and I don't know that anyone at Rivals made an effort to get out to Bremond to see him in person. While he was evaluated late in the season, I don't know if it impacted his latest ranking.
Honorable mention
1. Tyrell Shavers (Lewisville/Athlete/Committed to Alabama)
Rivals (Mid four star/5.9/No. 21 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Outside of his appearance at The Opening, Shavers has kept a low recruiting profile and I don't see where Rivals scouted him in person. However, that will change in the next week when he competes at the Under Armor game.
2. Josh Thompson (Nacogdoches/CB/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (Mid four star/5.9/No. 49 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: See Shavers. Outside of his appearance at The Opening, Thompson just wasn't seen very much, but he will play in the upcoming Offense-Defense Bowl, so it's possible that a complete evaluation will be done there. I would contend that he's the most under-evaluated big-time prospect in East Texas.
3. Jayden Peevy (Bellaire/DL/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (Low four star/5.8/No. 35 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Rivals scouted him in-person this season, but outside of that one evaluation, Peevy wasn't very active on the recruiting scene. However, he'll get a heavy evaluation this week at the Army Bowl.
******
Without losing you before I ever get to the meat and potatoes of this article by drifting off on a 3,000-word tangent about my developing theories, let me give you the 30-second elevator talk of the foundation of my position.
a. While there is now more information available than ever before about the skill and talent of players across the country that allows recruiting folks to make an inexact science as much of a science as an inexact science can be, it also creates a bit of confirmation bias in the rankings.
b. Over the course of a 24-36 month window, the rankings begin to focus the most on the players that have been evaluated the most.
c. One of my favorite tiers of recruits inside the state of Texas are high three-star prospects because history shows that they often outperform their mid- to low-four star peers.
d. My contention is that some of the best prospects in the state of Texas get buried in the high three-star range out of the subconscious confirmation bias that exists.
Therefore, I went through the entire Lone Star Recruiting Top 100 and charted the number of in-person evaluations made on each prospect by the Rivals network, not including individual sites because that would be almost impossible to accurately account for. When it comes to a guy like Houston Episcopal defensive tackle Marvin Wilson, I pretty much lost count of the number of times he's been scouted when you consider the countless camp appearances he's made on a national and regional level since his sophomore season.
My goal is to find the anti-Marvin Wilsons of the world, guys that weren't seen at multiple Rivals camps, The Opening or multiple live-game settings in hopes of finding the truest big-time sleepers in the state.
Based on the current LSR rankings, here's a look at the Top 10 most underrated prospects in Texas based on the reality that they are truly under-rated through under-evaluation.
Let's begin.
1. Montrell Estell (Hooks/Athlete/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 63 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: From the moment I first watched Estell following his sophomore season, I've been in love with the kid. While I have him ranked as the No. 14 prospect in Texas and he holds an offer list that includes Alabama and Notre Dame, Rivals has been cool on him for a while, but that might have to do with the fact that he's never been seen by the Rivals national recruiting team because he never attended a single major camp and was never scouted in person. He's the only prospect in the LSR Top 35 that the Rivals national people haven't seen at all in person.
2. Keynel McZeal (Port-Neches Groves/TE/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 75 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Like Estell, McZeal is a recruiting unicorn that attended zero national or regional camps that I'm aware of, while also not being seen in a game setting. Outside of his A&M offer, his next best offer if probably from Tulane, yet if you watch his film, you'll see a guy whose talent just jumps off the screen. While McZeal has been seen by various people in the network on the school site level, the national people haven't had a look at him as far as I can tell, which makes him one of three people in the state LSR Top 50 that you can say that about.
3. Major Tennison (Bullard/TE/Committed to Alabama)
Rivals (Low four star/5.8/No. 39 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I don't think anyone goes out of their way on the recruiting circuit to go to Bullard because if you go to Bullard, you're only going to see one game with a prospect all night. Meanwhile, Tennison attended zero regional or national camps over the course of the last two seasons. It's actually kind of amazing that he ranks as a four-star prospect in the Rivals rankings, given the particulars of his recruitment. As far as I can tell, he's the only kid in Texas that is ranked as a four-star without the benefit of an in-person evaluation.
4. Alan Abie (Keller Timber Creek/OL/Committed to SMU)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 52 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: No major camps and no in-game evaluations, yet this SMU commit has a very solid offer list.
5. Nelson Mbanasor (Pflugerville Hendrickson/DE/Committed to Texas Tech)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 66 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: While he's a player that quite a few team site reporters have seen over the last two years, I don't see where he was seen in person in any capacity from the Rivals national people. His film and offer list suggest he needs a closer inspection.
6. Tyquez Hampton (El Paso Dorado/WR/Committed to Utah)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 89 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I'm shocked that a kid from El Paso is flying under the radar, shocked, I tell you. I wonder if he had gone to one Rivals camp along the way if he wouldn't be a state top-50 guy right now.
7. Zach McKinney (Weatherford/DT/Committed to Oklahoma)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 82 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: I don't believe any of the Rivals national recruiting team members have seen him in person. His exploding offer list suggests that he's being slept on.
8. Derek Kersetter (San Antonio Reagan/OL/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 57 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: The freshly minted Texas commit is a borderline four-star prospect, but outside of the team sites (see Orangebloods favorite Mike Craven), I'm not sure anyone at Rivals has personally seen him in action. That will change this week when he's in San Antonio for the Army Bowl.
9. Marquez Bimage (Brenham/LB/Uncommitted)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 53 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Was a star at one of the Rivals camps earlier this year, but I don't believe the Rivals national team saw him in a game setting, which means that while Rivals got a great up-close look at him and really liked him, I don't believe they have seen him in his best setting. Otherwise, we're possibly talking about a top 30 in-state ranking.
10. Roshauud Paul (Bremond/LB/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (High three star/5.7/No. 65 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Yes, he's one of the state's top small school players of all-time, but he attended virtually no camps and I don't know that anyone at Rivals made an effort to get out to Bremond to see him in person. While he was evaluated late in the season, I don't know if it impacted his latest ranking.
Honorable mention
1. Tyrell Shavers (Lewisville/Athlete/Committed to Alabama)
Rivals (Mid four star/5.9/No. 21 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Outside of his appearance at The Opening, Shavers has kept a low recruiting profile and I don't see where Rivals scouted him in person. However, that will change in the next week when he competes at the Under Armor game.
2. Josh Thompson (Nacogdoches/CB/Committed to Texas)
Rivals (Mid four star/5.9/No. 49 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: See Shavers. Outside of his appearance at The Opening, Thompson just wasn't seen very much, but he will play in the upcoming Offense-Defense Bowl, so it's possible that a complete evaluation will be done there. I would contend that he's the most under-evaluated big-time prospect in East Texas.
3. Jayden Peevy (Bellaire/DL/Committed to Texas A&M)
Rivals (Low four star/5.8/No. 35 in the Rivals Texas Top 100)
Breakdown: Rivals scouted him in-person this season, but outside of that one evaluation, Peevy wasn't very active on the recruiting scene. However, he'll get a heavy evaluation this week at the Army Bowl.
******
