"Since January 1st, 2023, 5487+ companies have announced mass layoffs.
That's NOT 5487 job losses, that's companies that have announced MASS layoffs. Many in the multiple thousands. You do not do thousands and thousands of layoffs in the boom times. You don't even see too many in a flat/stable economy. You see them in an economy that is ONLY surviving on printed money."
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
"Sell the first rate cut': Bank of America's top global strategist warns stocks could be in for trouble as the economy heads toward a hard landing and the Fed gets set to slash rates. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett advises selling stocks at the first Federal Reserve rate cut.
For eons there's been an adage that the market buys the rumor, and then sells when the event or real news hits. Actually, it's a fairly accurate description, one that has played out many many times over the years. Now sometimes it's over something like earnings. Everyone sees product going out of the XYZ company and figures they're swimming in revenue and profits. So they bid the stock higher and higher.
Then the company releases their earnings report, and uh-oh. The shipments were all back ordered sales that have already been accounted for, and this quarter they missed Revenue estimates, profit estimates and guided lower. That's a perfect example of buying the rumor and selling the news.
What Hartnett is saying, without saying it is this...Usually, and you can verify this if you want to research it, the market does indeed start to fade when the feds start cutting rates. Why? Simple. By the time the economy is shaky enough to need a rate cut, it's too late. It takes months for the effect of a rate cut to trickle throughout the economy, therefore very few people get to see any "help" from it.
As the first rate cut is trying to flow through the economy, the situation that made a cut necessary is worsening. So, they cut again, but it too will take time to be effective. Meanwhile the economy slips and sputters, taking the market down with it.
The market is a fickle unit. It wants what it wants when it wants it. Well, it's wanted a rate cut for nearly a year. Actually it wanted 6 of them. Then okay, 4. Then maybe 3?? Okay two. Why so many screams for rate cuts while at the same time buying the Magnificent Darling 7 like there's no tomorrow?
Their thinking was that if he started soon enough and cut them long enough, we'd evade a "hard landing" which is market talk for a deep recession. They believed the rate cuts would deliver us a "soft landing" or a mild recession. But what about now?
First we have to think about the true state of the jobs market. The pencil pushers at the BLS do everything they can to make it look better than it is. I've told you of the Birth/death model and how it adds jobs that aren't there. How if you lose your full time good paying job, but take on two part time jobs paying less, they account that as more jobs created. On and on it goes.
They tell us unemployment is 4.2% It is nothing of the sort. Just like they tell us inflation is at 3%. IF we measured unemployment using the metrics we used in the 1980's, unemployment would be around 12% and inflation around 15. But those kind of numbers make the serfs unhappy and politicians don't like unhappy serfs. So, with a wink and a nod, they "fix" them.
Well here's the issue. Numbers on a spread sheet don't drive trucks. Employed men do. Government blips on a screen don't make widgets. Real live humans do. They can tell us anything they want, it's called lies. But when companies lay off workers, it's not because they're doing great.
If you do a one minute google search you'll find such gems as these:
Dell may be planning to lay off as many as 12,500 workers, or about 10% of its staff.
The online legal document company on Wednesday announced it would lay off 15% of its global workforce in a restructuring effort.
Events and ticketing platform Eventbrite is laying off about 100 employees, or 11% of its staff
On the media side of things, Axios announced this week that it would be laying off 50 employees, or about 10% of its staff.
Paramount Global. Yesterday, the entertainment giant announced that it would lay off about 2,000 employees, or about 15% of its U.S. workforce
About 1,000 American Electric Power employees have taken the company’s voluntary severance offer, which it says is necessary to reduce costs
Healthcare company Optum is closing clinics in multiple states and laying off 524 employees across California
UPS is laying off12,000
Citi 20,000
August 07, 2024: Techstars is laying off 17%, ending its J.P. Morgan-backed programs
August 05, 2024: Infineon to cut 1,400 jobs worldwide and relocate another 1,400.
August 02, 2024: Intel will lay off more than 15% of its staff, or 15,000 employees, as part of a broad cost-reduction program.
But that's just a tiny snapshot. Here's the meat and potatoes
Since January 1st, 2024, 3200+ companies have announced mass layoffs.
Now we're just past halfway into the year. More will be coming. Then, if we take them, and add them to last years layoffs where are we?
Since January 1st, 2023, 5487+ companies have announced mass layoffs.
That's NOT 5487 job losses, that's companies that have announced MASS layoffs. Many in the multiple thousands. You do not do thousands and thousands of layoffs in the boom times. You don't even see too many in a flat/stable economy. You see them in an economy that is ONLY surviving on printed money.
Will the start of rate cuts be a "sell the news" event? It certainly should be.
That's NOT 5487 job losses, that's companies that have announced MASS layoffs. Many in the multiple thousands. You do not do thousands and thousands of layoffs in the boom times. You don't even see too many in a flat/stable economy. You see them in an economy that is ONLY surviving on printed money."
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
"Sell the first rate cut': Bank of America's top global strategist warns stocks could be in for trouble as the economy heads toward a hard landing and the Fed gets set to slash rates. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett advises selling stocks at the first Federal Reserve rate cut.
For eons there's been an adage that the market buys the rumor, and then sells when the event or real news hits. Actually, it's a fairly accurate description, one that has played out many many times over the years. Now sometimes it's over something like earnings. Everyone sees product going out of the XYZ company and figures they're swimming in revenue and profits. So they bid the stock higher and higher.
Then the company releases their earnings report, and uh-oh. The shipments were all back ordered sales that have already been accounted for, and this quarter they missed Revenue estimates, profit estimates and guided lower. That's a perfect example of buying the rumor and selling the news.
What Hartnett is saying, without saying it is this...Usually, and you can verify this if you want to research it, the market does indeed start to fade when the feds start cutting rates. Why? Simple. By the time the economy is shaky enough to need a rate cut, it's too late. It takes months for the effect of a rate cut to trickle throughout the economy, therefore very few people get to see any "help" from it.
As the first rate cut is trying to flow through the economy, the situation that made a cut necessary is worsening. So, they cut again, but it too will take time to be effective. Meanwhile the economy slips and sputters, taking the market down with it.
The market is a fickle unit. It wants what it wants when it wants it. Well, it's wanted a rate cut for nearly a year. Actually it wanted 6 of them. Then okay, 4. Then maybe 3?? Okay two. Why so many screams for rate cuts while at the same time buying the Magnificent Darling 7 like there's no tomorrow?
Their thinking was that if he started soon enough and cut them long enough, we'd evade a "hard landing" which is market talk for a deep recession. They believed the rate cuts would deliver us a "soft landing" or a mild recession. But what about now?
First we have to think about the true state of the jobs market. The pencil pushers at the BLS do everything they can to make it look better than it is. I've told you of the Birth/death model and how it adds jobs that aren't there. How if you lose your full time good paying job, but take on two part time jobs paying less, they account that as more jobs created. On and on it goes.
They tell us unemployment is 4.2% It is nothing of the sort. Just like they tell us inflation is at 3%. IF we measured unemployment using the metrics we used in the 1980's, unemployment would be around 12% and inflation around 15. But those kind of numbers make the serfs unhappy and politicians don't like unhappy serfs. So, with a wink and a nod, they "fix" them.
Well here's the issue. Numbers on a spread sheet don't drive trucks. Employed men do. Government blips on a screen don't make widgets. Real live humans do. They can tell us anything they want, it's called lies. But when companies lay off workers, it's not because they're doing great.
If you do a one minute google search you'll find such gems as these:
Dell may be planning to lay off as many as 12,500 workers, or about 10% of its staff.
The online legal document company on Wednesday announced it would lay off 15% of its global workforce in a restructuring effort.
Events and ticketing platform Eventbrite is laying off about 100 employees, or 11% of its staff
On the media side of things, Axios announced this week that it would be laying off 50 employees, or about 10% of its staff.
Paramount Global. Yesterday, the entertainment giant announced that it would lay off about 2,000 employees, or about 15% of its U.S. workforce
About 1,000 American Electric Power employees have taken the company’s voluntary severance offer, which it says is necessary to reduce costs
Healthcare company Optum is closing clinics in multiple states and laying off 524 employees across California
UPS is laying off12,000
Citi 20,000
August 07, 2024: Techstars is laying off 17%, ending its J.P. Morgan-backed programs
August 05, 2024: Infineon to cut 1,400 jobs worldwide and relocate another 1,400.
August 02, 2024: Intel will lay off more than 15% of its staff, or 15,000 employees, as part of a broad cost-reduction program.
But that's just a tiny snapshot. Here's the meat and potatoes
Since January 1st, 2024, 3200+ companies have announced mass layoffs.
Now we're just past halfway into the year. More will be coming. Then, if we take them, and add them to last years layoffs where are we?
Since January 1st, 2023, 5487+ companies have announced mass layoffs.
That's NOT 5487 job losses, that's companies that have announced MASS layoffs. Many in the multiple thousands. You do not do thousands and thousands of layoffs in the boom times. You don't even see too many in a flat/stable economy. You see them in an economy that is ONLY surviving on printed money.
Will the start of rate cuts be a "sell the news" event? It certainly should be.
