It’s safe to presume Big 10 and SEC champs are in. I also think an undefeated or 1-loss PAC 12 champ is in. It gets very interesting for the final spot. IMO, Texas is best positioned in the following scenario:
1) Texas wins out, preferably convincingly. Obviously this has to happen or the discussion is moot.
2) Washington loses 1 of its final 3, but beats Oregon in a rematch in CCG. Oregon’s out with two losses.
3) Similar for FSU. Lose 1 of its last 3, then lose in CCG against Louisville. FSU out w 2 losses.
4) Bama makes the SEC CCG, but loses a close one to UGA
That would leave Texas as a 1-loss champ against Louisville for the final spot. I’ll like our chances in that situation.
Worst cases for Texas are FSU winning out and the ACC champ game, UW staying undefeated but losing in CCG to Oregon, or Bama winning SEC and tagging Georgia with their only loss. I’m less worried about Ohio St winning out but losing in CCG. Hard to envision any 1-loss team that loses in CCG getting in, unless somehow Texas makes the CCG and loses. Or the Bama as SEC champ and 1-loss Georgia possibility.
1) Texas wins out, preferably convincingly. Obviously this has to happen or the discussion is moot.
2) Washington loses 1 of its final 3, but beats Oregon in a rematch in CCG. Oregon’s out with two losses.
3) Similar for FSU. Lose 1 of its last 3, then lose in CCG against Louisville. FSU out w 2 losses.
4) Bama makes the SEC CCG, but loses a close one to UGA
That would leave Texas as a 1-loss champ against Louisville for the final spot. I’ll like our chances in that situation.
Worst cases for Texas are FSU winning out and the ACC champ game, UW staying undefeated but losing in CCG to Oregon, or Bama winning SEC and tagging Georgia with their only loss. I’m less worried about Ohio St winning out but losing in CCG. Hard to envision any 1-loss team that loses in CCG getting in, unless somehow Texas makes the CCG and loses. Or the Bama as SEC champ and 1-loss Georgia possibility.
