***DISCLAIMER***
This is not a projection of what the CFP rankings will be as of this week … this is a projection of what the CFP will look like at the end of the season.
***END OF DISCLAIMER***
We’re getting closer and closer to nut-cutting time for the college football playoff.
The elimination process has already begun and the field will continue to narrow down over the last two weeks of the regular season.
Tennessee rolled into Athens, Georgia and left with an L. Who’s the real UT now? Based on likelihood to make the playoffs, it would have to be Texas because Tennessee just got castrated.
The Vols loss drops them down in the rankings and they don’t have a marquee game left on the schedule to prop themselves up again (they play UTEP this week). Plus, I’m not entirely convinced they beat Vanderbilt next week. Losing to Vandy would be a triple blow. It would eliminate them from the SEC Championship game contention, the playoffs contention and it would also bolster Texas’s résumé.
What about you Indiana? Can you avoid a similar fate in Columbus, Ohio this weekend? I’ve maintained all along that a one loss Big Ten team will make the playoffs, but that theory goes out the window if the Hoosiers get boat raced by the Buckeyes. If that were to happen, the CFP committee could easily look at IU’s schedule and decide to put a two loss SEC team in over the Hoosiers (which could be the breath of life needed for Tennessee).
The same thing goes for BYU and Colorado this week. The Cougars stubbed their toe last week and now they face an Arizona State team which has very quietly put itself in position to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
Side note – ASU winning the Big 12 would be a disaster for the conference because the Sun Devils are likely to be ranked so low that if they do win, the conference may be shut out of the CFP completely. The automatic spot for the conference champions could then be filled by:
SEC winner (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee)
Big Ten winner (Ohio State, Oregon)
ACC winner (Miami, SMU, Clemson)
Mountain West winner (Boise State)
AAC winner (Army, Tulane)
That's five conference champs who would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 winner (if it ends up being Arizona State) and Brett Yormark's head would explode.
Side note rant over, back to the Big 12.
Colorado has to avoid an upset against Kansas. Kansas has, for much of the season, played like the Jayhawks of old. But they have turned a corner late in the season and strung together back-to-back victories against Iowa State and BYU. If they pull off a third upset in a row, that would knock Colorado out of the Big 12 title game and end its playoff chances.
For all of the talk about Texas’s lack of a marquee win, Penn State has just as bad a résumé as UT, if not worse. Penn State plays Minnesota this week and they should beat them, but we see games every week where a team that should win doesn’t. If Penn State doesn’t handle its business, it would be almost impossible for the Nittany Lions to make the CFP field over a two-loss SEC team.
Finally, we have Notre Dame who already has a glaring loss this season (losing at home to Northern Illinois) taking on Army at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. A loss to Army (or USC next week) may be more crushing to the Irish than the potato famine. It certainly would end their hopes of making the playoffs.
So with all of that to look forward to over the next two weeks, here are this week’s CFP projections.
1) OHIO STATE
I have kept Ohio State as the projected winner of the Big Ten and they have shown me no reason to knock them down. A rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game remains the most likely scenario and despite the Buckeyes loss to the Ducks in Eugene, I still think Ohio State is the better team.
2) TEXAS
The Horns feel as likely to win the SEC as anybody else. If I had to guess, I would guess that we’ll see Texas vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Winning the league in its first year would make this season a resounding success no matter what then happens in the playoffs. Beating Bama would also shut the traps of all of the pundits who are saying Texas hasn’t beaten anyone.
3) BOISE STATE
I admit I’m out on a limb here and it could easily come back to bite me in the arse. But in this scenario, I have SMU winning the ACC and Colorado winning the Big 12 and I think both of them would be ranked lower than Boise State whose only loss was a road trip game against Oregon in week two.
4) SMU
My gambling ways continue with this pick. SMU doesn’t look like a world beater to me. Certainly I don’t believe the Mustangs are one of the four best teams in America. But I’ve got them beating Miami in the ACC Championship Game and that would give them the automatic CFP berth and a round one bye. The Ponies are already ranked ahead of Colorado (who I have projected to win the Big 12) and given that a win over Miami would carry more caché than a Colorado win over BYU or Arizona State, I’m going to keep SMU ranked higher in these end of season projections. In fact, I think it’s more likely that SMU would be ranked above Boise State in this scenario than them being ranked below Colorado.
OREGON VS. COLORADO
It’s a rematch of the “clicks versus wins” game from last year.
If, as I believe, Oregon loses the Big Ten title, they will still end up being the highest ranked non-conference champion and will host a game in week one.
Colorado gets the 12 seed as the lowest ranked conference champ and has to travel to Eugene.
I’m now projecting Colorado to win the Big 12 for one very simple reason. They have the best quarterback and the best players of any team in the Big 12. Up until now, BYU has gotten by on moxie and a little luck. That luck ran out during a quick kick in the game against Kansas last week.
PENN STATE VS. INDIANA
Which Big Ten team is the third best and which is the fourth best? We’ll find out in this matchup.
I just can’t look at Penn State and see a team that I think is one of the best in the country. But it doesn’t matter what I think, the CFP committee seems to like them. Considering the Nittany Lions aren’t likely to lose again, they will end up being 11-1 and will be rewarded with a home playoff game.
Again, as long as Indiana doesn’t get embarrassed this week, I think they are in. I have them as the lowest ranked non-conference team to make the CFP (ahead of Tennessee and Texas A&M).
NOTRE DAME VS. GEORGIA
After being Tennessee fairly soundly last week, Georgia is rewarded by being back in the playoff projections this week. But their penance for losses at Alabama and Ole Miss is that they are ranked below those two teams in the CFP and have to travel to South Bend in round one.
I kind of view Notre Dame in the same vein as Penn State ... good but not elite. Still, the Fighting Irish are in as long as they win out and I’m not sure they’ll be ranked much lower than eighth or ninth. I’ve got them in as a seven seed in these projections.
ALABAMA VS. OLE MISS
These two teams avoided each other this year in the regular season so this isn’t a rematch, but it will be an incredibly fun game in Tuscaloosa.
I’ve got the Tide making the SEC Championship game and where they lose to Texas. I don’t believe the CFP committee will punish them too harshly for losing in the title game of the toughest conference in the land. Hence, the Tide still make the CFP and host a home game in round one despite having three losses.
Ole Miss isn’t going to lose again either so their spot in the CFP is all but locked up (they play Florida and Mississippi State to finish the season).
This is not a projection of what the CFP rankings will be as of this week … this is a projection of what the CFP will look like at the end of the season.
***END OF DISCLAIMER***
We’re getting closer and closer to nut-cutting time for the college football playoff.
The elimination process has already begun and the field will continue to narrow down over the last two weeks of the regular season.
Tennessee rolled into Athens, Georgia and left with an L. Who’s the real UT now? Based on likelihood to make the playoffs, it would have to be Texas because Tennessee just got castrated.
The Vols loss drops them down in the rankings and they don’t have a marquee game left on the schedule to prop themselves up again (they play UTEP this week). Plus, I’m not entirely convinced they beat Vanderbilt next week. Losing to Vandy would be a triple blow. It would eliminate them from the SEC Championship game contention, the playoffs contention and it would also bolster Texas’s résumé.
What about you Indiana? Can you avoid a similar fate in Columbus, Ohio this weekend? I’ve maintained all along that a one loss Big Ten team will make the playoffs, but that theory goes out the window if the Hoosiers get boat raced by the Buckeyes. If that were to happen, the CFP committee could easily look at IU’s schedule and decide to put a two loss SEC team in over the Hoosiers (which could be the breath of life needed for Tennessee).
The same thing goes for BYU and Colorado this week. The Cougars stubbed their toe last week and now they face an Arizona State team which has very quietly put itself in position to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
Side note – ASU winning the Big 12 would be a disaster for the conference because the Sun Devils are likely to be ranked so low that if they do win, the conference may be shut out of the CFP completely. The automatic spot for the conference champions could then be filled by:
SEC winner (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee)
Big Ten winner (Ohio State, Oregon)
ACC winner (Miami, SMU, Clemson)
Mountain West winner (Boise State)
AAC winner (Army, Tulane)
That's five conference champs who would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 winner (if it ends up being Arizona State) and Brett Yormark's head would explode.
Side note rant over, back to the Big 12.
Colorado has to avoid an upset against Kansas. Kansas has, for much of the season, played like the Jayhawks of old. But they have turned a corner late in the season and strung together back-to-back victories against Iowa State and BYU. If they pull off a third upset in a row, that would knock Colorado out of the Big 12 title game and end its playoff chances.
For all of the talk about Texas’s lack of a marquee win, Penn State has just as bad a résumé as UT, if not worse. Penn State plays Minnesota this week and they should beat them, but we see games every week where a team that should win doesn’t. If Penn State doesn’t handle its business, it would be almost impossible for the Nittany Lions to make the CFP field over a two-loss SEC team.
Finally, we have Notre Dame who already has a glaring loss this season (losing at home to Northern Illinois) taking on Army at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. A loss to Army (or USC next week) may be more crushing to the Irish than the potato famine. It certainly would end their hopes of making the playoffs.
So with all of that to look forward to over the next two weeks, here are this week’s CFP projections.
1) OHIO STATE
I have kept Ohio State as the projected winner of the Big Ten and they have shown me no reason to knock them down. A rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game remains the most likely scenario and despite the Buckeyes loss to the Ducks in Eugene, I still think Ohio State is the better team.
2) TEXAS
The Horns feel as likely to win the SEC as anybody else. If I had to guess, I would guess that we’ll see Texas vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Winning the league in its first year would make this season a resounding success no matter what then happens in the playoffs. Beating Bama would also shut the traps of all of the pundits who are saying Texas hasn’t beaten anyone.
3) BOISE STATE
I admit I’m out on a limb here and it could easily come back to bite me in the arse. But in this scenario, I have SMU winning the ACC and Colorado winning the Big 12 and I think both of them would be ranked lower than Boise State whose only loss was a road trip game against Oregon in week two.
4) SMU
My gambling ways continue with this pick. SMU doesn’t look like a world beater to me. Certainly I don’t believe the Mustangs are one of the four best teams in America. But I’ve got them beating Miami in the ACC Championship Game and that would give them the automatic CFP berth and a round one bye. The Ponies are already ranked ahead of Colorado (who I have projected to win the Big 12) and given that a win over Miami would carry more caché than a Colorado win over BYU or Arizona State, I’m going to keep SMU ranked higher in these end of season projections. In fact, I think it’s more likely that SMU would be ranked above Boise State in this scenario than them being ranked below Colorado.
OREGON VS. COLORADO
It’s a rematch of the “clicks versus wins” game from last year.
If, as I believe, Oregon loses the Big Ten title, they will still end up being the highest ranked non-conference champion and will host a game in week one.
Colorado gets the 12 seed as the lowest ranked conference champ and has to travel to Eugene.
I’m now projecting Colorado to win the Big 12 for one very simple reason. They have the best quarterback and the best players of any team in the Big 12. Up until now, BYU has gotten by on moxie and a little luck. That luck ran out during a quick kick in the game against Kansas last week.
PENN STATE VS. INDIANA
Which Big Ten team is the third best and which is the fourth best? We’ll find out in this matchup.
I just can’t look at Penn State and see a team that I think is one of the best in the country. But it doesn’t matter what I think, the CFP committee seems to like them. Considering the Nittany Lions aren’t likely to lose again, they will end up being 11-1 and will be rewarded with a home playoff game.
Again, as long as Indiana doesn’t get embarrassed this week, I think they are in. I have them as the lowest ranked non-conference team to make the CFP (ahead of Tennessee and Texas A&M).
NOTRE DAME VS. GEORGIA
After being Tennessee fairly soundly last week, Georgia is rewarded by being back in the playoff projections this week. But their penance for losses at Alabama and Ole Miss is that they are ranked below those two teams in the CFP and have to travel to South Bend in round one.
I kind of view Notre Dame in the same vein as Penn State ... good but not elite. Still, the Fighting Irish are in as long as they win out and I’m not sure they’ll be ranked much lower than eighth or ninth. I’ve got them in as a seven seed in these projections.
ALABAMA VS. OLE MISS
These two teams avoided each other this year in the regular season so this isn’t a rematch, but it will be an incredibly fun game in Tuscaloosa.
I’ve got the Tide making the SEC Championship game and where they lose to Texas. I don’t believe the CFP committee will punish them too harshly for losing in the title game of the toughest conference in the land. Hence, the Tide still make the CFP and host a home game in round one despite having three losses.
Ole Miss isn’t going to lose again either so their spot in the CFP is all but locked up (they play Florida and Mississippi State to finish the season).
