Despite all of the chaos in college football last week … *cough, cough BAMA … The playoff projections have not had a wholesale change.
Texas is still the one seed as the number one team in the country and my projected SEC champion.
Ohio State is still the clear two seed … for now. The Buckeyes head to Oregon to take on the Ducks this week in a colossal Big Ten matchup. No matter which team wins (as long as it is a close game), then we’re likely to continue to see both teams making the playoffs.
Miami continues to sit in the 3 seed as the ACC champion, but my confidence in this pick is getting shakier and shakier. The Hurricanes have needed last minute official reviews to win their last two games against teams that they really should be beating without any help.
Meanwhile, Clemson has come on strong since their opening week loss to Georgia. The only reason I have not moved Clemson into the ACC champion spot is that Clemson hasn’t played anybody with even close to a pulse since that week zero game. App State, NC State, Stanford and Florida State are hardly a murderer’s row. I do have them making the playoffs as the seven seed but I’m not entirely sold on my own projection here. I could easily see the Tigers losing to one or more of Virginia, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh or South Carolina.
I still have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the Big 12. I’ll keep BYU as the conference champ for now but Iowa State, Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia, Kansas State and Utah are all legitimate contenders to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Who the heck really knows which team will emerge from that game?
Which leads me to this … I am very, very close to moving the Big 12 champion’s spot out of the four seed. I think we’re getting closer and closer to the point where one of the Group of five conference champs will be ranked higher than the Big 12 champ and will therefore get the four seed leaving the Big 12 champ to be ranked below them.
For now, I will put Boise State in the playoffs in the fifth conference champion slot. They play UNLV on October 25th and that game could very well decide whether they make it or not. If the Broncos win that game then they should coast through the rest of the season. Their only blemish at that point would have been a three point loss on the road to Oregon (who I believe is also a playoff team). That would easily have Boise State ranked high in the CFP standings so the Big 12 should be cheering for every team playing the Broncos the rest of the way.
Ok … yes, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt last week. But we shouldn’t overreact to one loss. Bama is still one of the top teams in the country so if I’m projecting the playoffs, then I’m also projecting Bama to rise back up in the rankings. I’ve got them as the six seed for now.
Which brings us to … Texas A&M.
The Aggies are 5-1 and the schedule the rest of the way looks pretty cushy. Their home game against LSU on October 26th is the biggest game left on their schedule until they host Texas on Thanksgiving weekend. I really don’t think much of LSU this year so I think we have to consider that as a likely win at this point. South Carolina the week after is very hit or miss. New Mexico State doesn’t have Diego Pavia anymore. Auburn doesn’t have a quarterback. That means the chances of a 10-1 Texas A&M team could be what Texas sees when it travels to College Station at the end of the season.
Holy cow! (Or sheep)
If that ends up being true, then I am probably ranking A&M too low as the 11 seed. Even if they do lose to Texas, they will be 10-2 and could easily move up to a 6, 7 or 8 seed. Of course, if Texas blows them out, then an 11 seed seems logical, even if they are 10-2.
WHERE DO YOU WANT TEXAS SEEDED?
One thing I hear from you guys every single week is that you would much rather be the five seed than the one seed. I continue to insist that winning is better than not winning and you let the chips fall where they may in the playoffs.
Last week's games should prove to you that NO path to a championship is going to be easy. Sure, on paper, a game may look easy, but upsets can and do happen. Upsets in the playoffs can and will happen. Being a five seed means an extra game and an extra chance at a loss.
But here is one other point I want to make. Championships matter. If Texas is the one seed, then that means they will be the SEC Champs in their first year. No matter what happens in the playoffs after that, Texas will always have that SEC championship trophy in the case. The players, coaches and fans will all be able to claim that championship and hold it over their other SEC friends and family members.
Who doesn't want a trophy? Who doesn't want to be able to say you won the league in your first year in play? A&M has never won an SEC championship in football (or many other sports).
Winning matters. You go for the best seed possible and then move on to the playoffs with confidence and momentum.
