Sunday morning dawned and I felt a subtle sadness as I woke up and began to get ready for the day. Saturday was the last full day of college football action until next season.
Oh sure, there is still a lot of football left to be played. The Texas Longhorns will get at least two more games (up to five more games - four more if things go well). But Saturday night was the last time to watch college football from the start of Gameday until the end of crazy games out west (RIP Pac-12).
But I called it a “subtle sadness” because it is mixed with unbridled excitement over the upcoming college football playoff.
I think we are on the verge of the start of something that will propel college football forward to new heights of popularity and enthusiasm about the game.
The picture of WHO will play in the CFP is almost as clear as it can get now. There are a number of teams that I consider to be locks to make the field.
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Oregon
Ohio State (even with the loss to Michigan)
Penn State
Indiana
Notre Dame
If you’re counting, that’s eight seats in the 12-team playoff that I think are locked up now.
You can add three more locks as well – the winners of the Mountain West Conference (either Boise State or UNLV), the winner of the Big 12 (either Arizona State or Iowa State), and the winner of the ACC (either SMU or Clemson). So now we’re at 11 teams in the 12 team field.
So let’s look at the teams still in the mix for the final spot.
Alabama
Miami
SMU
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Alabama was all but out after losing to Oklahoma, but a funny thing happened along the way to their Citrus Bowl journey – other teams started losing as well. The Tide are the most likely of the three-loss SEC teams to be able to make the field.
South Carolina is the hottest team in that cluster after winning six straight. The problem with the Gamecocks are that two of their losses are to Alabama and Ole Miss. How do you put South Carolina in over either of those teams?
The biggest kick in the pants to the bubble teams would be if Clemson wins the ACC championship game and gets the automatic bid. If that happens, there is still very much a good chance that SMU takes that final at-large seat and we can call it a wrap.
Even if SMU wins, Miami has a chance to grab that spot with its 10-2 record. I know the Hurricanes have struggled recently with what is a pretty atrocious defense. But on the other hand, they also have a dynamic offense led by future Heisman finalist Cam Ward. I’m not sure if the committee will reward them with a spot but it can’t be ruled out.
So here we go, here’s what I think the final CFP bracket will look like.
1. Oregon
Assuming Oregon beats Penn State then they will finish as the only undefeated P4 team and will easily be the one seed in the field. Not much drama here as long as they win.
2. Texas
If Texas takes care of business against Georgia on Saturday, then this is a lock as well. The Horns will grab that two-seed and the bracket will look pretty good for a deep run.
3. SMU
I think the Mustangs will end up being ranked higher than the Mountain West champ and will therefore get the three seed if they win. Now, if Clemson ends up winning the ACC, the three seed will likely be Boise State instead. Clemson could very well end up being a 12 seed if it wins.
4. Boise State
I’m assuming Boise State wins but UNLV played them very tough in the first matchup (a 29-24 win). No matter who wins this game, they are in the playoffs – the only thing that will change is the seeding. Boise State has been good enough for long enough that they can and will be a top four seed if they win.
NOTRE DAME vs. ARIZONA STATE
Notre Dame has rolled through their schedule with ease since tripping up against Northern Illinois in week two. Not only that, but they’re playing their best brand of football right now. Now if Penn State wins the Big Ten, then Oregon will take the five seed. But if Penn State loses, they’ll have a second loss and will fall below Notre Dame. As it is, the Irish will get the highest seeded spot they can get since they don’t have a conference championship game they can win.
Arizona State looks like the best team in the Big 12 right now but I’ll be honest, I’m secretly cheering for Iowa State to win and end their 112 year drought since they last won a conference title in football. No matter who wins the Big 12, they’re going to get the 12 seed.
OHIO STATE vs. ALABAMA
Talk about a matchup of titans! The Buckeyes lost to Michigan (something Texas didn’t do despite their “soft” schedule) and they are tumbling down the rankings as a result. But they won’t fall too far. If Penn State loses the Big Ten title game, I think the Buckeyes will be ranked above the Nittany Lions since they beat them head to head.
Alabama sneaks in thanks to so many teams above them losing. The Tide will be the second SEC team with three loses to make the field (Georgia will also have three losses after losing to Texas in the SEC championship game).
PENN STATE vs. INDIANA
The two Big Ten teams who both played easy schedules get to face each other to determine who is the best of the rest of that league.
GEORGIA vs. TENNESSEE
This is the only rematch on the docket. Georgia get the eight seed after losing in the SEC game just ahead of Tennessee whom they beat earlier this season.
Oh sure, there is still a lot of football left to be played. The Texas Longhorns will get at least two more games (up to five more games - four more if things go well). But Saturday night was the last time to watch college football from the start of Gameday until the end of crazy games out west (RIP Pac-12).
But I called it a “subtle sadness” because it is mixed with unbridled excitement over the upcoming college football playoff.
I think we are on the verge of the start of something that will propel college football forward to new heights of popularity and enthusiasm about the game.
The picture of WHO will play in the CFP is almost as clear as it can get now. There are a number of teams that I consider to be locks to make the field.
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Oregon
Ohio State (even with the loss to Michigan)
Penn State
Indiana
Notre Dame
If you’re counting, that’s eight seats in the 12-team playoff that I think are locked up now.
You can add three more locks as well – the winners of the Mountain West Conference (either Boise State or UNLV), the winner of the Big 12 (either Arizona State or Iowa State), and the winner of the ACC (either SMU or Clemson). So now we’re at 11 teams in the 12 team field.
So let’s look at the teams still in the mix for the final spot.
Alabama
Miami
SMU
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Alabama was all but out after losing to Oklahoma, but a funny thing happened along the way to their Citrus Bowl journey – other teams started losing as well. The Tide are the most likely of the three-loss SEC teams to be able to make the field.
South Carolina is the hottest team in that cluster after winning six straight. The problem with the Gamecocks are that two of their losses are to Alabama and Ole Miss. How do you put South Carolina in over either of those teams?
The biggest kick in the pants to the bubble teams would be if Clemson wins the ACC championship game and gets the automatic bid. If that happens, there is still very much a good chance that SMU takes that final at-large seat and we can call it a wrap.
Even if SMU wins, Miami has a chance to grab that spot with its 10-2 record. I know the Hurricanes have struggled recently with what is a pretty atrocious defense. But on the other hand, they also have a dynamic offense led by future Heisman finalist Cam Ward. I’m not sure if the committee will reward them with a spot but it can’t be ruled out.
So here we go, here’s what I think the final CFP bracket will look like.
1. Oregon
Assuming Oregon beats Penn State then they will finish as the only undefeated P4 team and will easily be the one seed in the field. Not much drama here as long as they win.
2. Texas
If Texas takes care of business against Georgia on Saturday, then this is a lock as well. The Horns will grab that two-seed and the bracket will look pretty good for a deep run.
3. SMU
I think the Mustangs will end up being ranked higher than the Mountain West champ and will therefore get the three seed if they win. Now, if Clemson ends up winning the ACC, the three seed will likely be Boise State instead. Clemson could very well end up being a 12 seed if it wins.
4. Boise State
I’m assuming Boise State wins but UNLV played them very tough in the first matchup (a 29-24 win). No matter who wins this game, they are in the playoffs – the only thing that will change is the seeding. Boise State has been good enough for long enough that they can and will be a top four seed if they win.
NOTRE DAME vs. ARIZONA STATE
Notre Dame has rolled through their schedule with ease since tripping up against Northern Illinois in week two. Not only that, but they’re playing their best brand of football right now. Now if Penn State wins the Big Ten, then Oregon will take the five seed. But if Penn State loses, they’ll have a second loss and will fall below Notre Dame. As it is, the Irish will get the highest seeded spot they can get since they don’t have a conference championship game they can win.
Arizona State looks like the best team in the Big 12 right now but I’ll be honest, I’m secretly cheering for Iowa State to win and end their 112 year drought since they last won a conference title in football. No matter who wins the Big 12, they’re going to get the 12 seed.
OHIO STATE vs. ALABAMA
Talk about a matchup of titans! The Buckeyes lost to Michigan (something Texas didn’t do despite their “soft” schedule) and they are tumbling down the rankings as a result. But they won’t fall too far. If Penn State loses the Big Ten title game, I think the Buckeyes will be ranked above the Nittany Lions since they beat them head to head.
Alabama sneaks in thanks to so many teams above them losing. The Tide will be the second SEC team with three loses to make the field (Georgia will also have three losses after losing to Texas in the SEC championship game).
PENN STATE vs. INDIANA
The two Big Ten teams who both played easy schedules get to face each other to determine who is the best of the rest of that league.
GEORGIA vs. TENNESSEE
This is the only rematch on the docket. Georgia get the eight seed after losing in the SEC game just ahead of Tennessee whom they beat earlier this season.
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