Texas is now the odds-on favorite to win both the SEC and the national championship. That puts the Horns squarely in the number one seed territory, whether some of you like it or not.
I know Ohio State lost to Oregon. But I think both of those teams are the favorites to see each other again in the Big Ten conference title game and given that game will be played in the Midwest and not the Pacific Northwest, I’m still giving the edge to Ohio State to win the B1G title and lock up the 2-seed.
That would put Oregon in as the highest seeded non-conference champion. I also really do love that we would get an Oregon/Boise State rematch in this scenario.
Alabama looks shaky as heck these days. A loss to Vanderbilt and an oh-so-close to losing to South Carolina at home will have everyone rightly questioning their legitimacy. If they survive an @Tennessee matchup this week and an @LSU matchup in early November then those questions will be answered in full (and we’ll probably see them against Texas in the SEC Championship game). Of course … that’s a very big “IF” right now. The game against Tennessee will be an exciting undercard to the Texas/Georgia game Saturday.
Penn State need a furious overtime comeback to beat a pretty bad USC team. The only truly tough matchup left on the Nittany Lions schedule is Ohio State on November 2nd. Even if Penn State does lose Ohio State, they will still be in great shape to be a highly seeded playoff team with only one loss. They could maybe even flip-flop with Alabama and take over the 6-seed instead of the 7-seed. I would just give Bama the edge based on having better quality wins.
Clemson keeps beating up on the piss-poor teams on its schedule. That’s what you’re supposed to do. That schedule doesn’t get much harder the rest of the way. Pitt is the only ranked team they’ll face the rest of the season (until the ACC championship game). Cade Klubnik has looked good this year when facing really bad defenses. I’m still not worried about losing the bet to @Ketchum (he says Klubnik will be a top-10 pick in the NFL draft and I disagree).
Is there a world where Georgia misses a 12-team playoff all together? Absolutely. @Texas this week, @ Ole Miss and Tennessee at home are still some challenging hurdles left on their schedule. Lose two out of those three and their out. But I don’t think that will happen. They are not the dominant Georgia team we’ve come to expect over the years but they still have one of the most talent-loaded rosters in the country. I’m predicting a loss to Texas and then wins the rest of the way. Unfortunately for them, those two conference losses will likely keep them out of the SEC title game – paving the way for Bama or even – gasp – Texas A&M to make that game.
I talked last week about how it’s possible the Aggies run the table until the Thanksgiving matchup against Texas. It won’t be easy. A&M could easily trip up a time or two against @Mississippi State, LSU, @South Carolina, New Mexico State and @Auburn before the Texas game. But, as I mentioned last week, they’ll be favored against each of those teams.
*IF* they do run the table before the Texas game, then they will have basically clinched an SEC Championship Game bid and that will carry with it an almost automatic entry into the 12-team playoff.
Notre Dame is in the same boat as A&M. A relatively easy schedule awaits … but it should shock anyone if the Irish lose to one (or more) of their games against Georgia Tech, Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Army and @USC. Their only true road game left on the schedule is the matchup in the Coliseum against USC. The Navy and Army games are both being played in the New York area (Meadowlands, NJ for the Navy game and Yankee Stadium for the Army game). Ironically, the matchups against the academies may be their toughest challenges. Not only are Navy & Army the only two ranked teams on the schedule, they are also excellent run teams and the Irish are more susceptible to getting beat on the ground than through the air.
Finally, Boise State plays UNLV next week. The winner of that game may be in prime position to win that final conference champion automatic berth. For now, Boise State looks like the best G-5 team in the country to me. Ashton Jeanty is phenomenal.
If it’s not Boise State or UNLV, then it will be either Army or Navy. I know this question was asked on the board so I will answer it here. IF Army and Navy are both the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference, they will face off against each other on Friday, December 6th for the right to win the conference and a potential CFP playoff bid on the line. The game will be played on the home field of the higher ranked team. The College Football playoff field will be announced two days later, Sunday, December 8th. The two teams will then play each other again on Saturday, December 14th in the Washington, D.C. area for the annual Army/Navy game with the possibility that one of those teams is already in the CFP.
I know – it would be weird. Don’t get me wrong, that scenario would be kind of awesome (especially if Navy is going to the CFP), but still weird.
These are the teams I considered for the playoff but left out.
THE CONTENDERS:
POWER 4:
Iowa State
LSU
Indiana
GROUP OF 5:
UNLV
Navy
Army
