This is it … tonight is the night the results start coming in. Granted, we won’t know for some time who the real winners are, but tonight is the first time we’ll hear directly from the voices that matter.
Of course I’m talking about the first College Football Playoff rankings being released this evening.
Forget about the AP poll. Don’t even bother with the coaches poll. Those are just early season fodder. It is the rankings of the CFP selection committee that will determine who makes the playoffs (with the obvious caveat that the five highest ranked conference champions get automatic bids).
It should be noted that you are still going to see differences between the CFP rankings and my projections. That’s because mine are just that … projections. I’m forecasting what I think will happen by the end of the season and I assure you that my powers to accurately predict what will happen in college football are just as mundane as any of your powers to do the same.
That being said, we’ve seen quite a shakeup in this weeks projections. There were two teams in last week’s projections who lost last week giving them two losses on the season and a third is more likely than not to come.
Clemson, which I had reluctantly put in the poll in the first place, was as big of a fraud as I suspected they were. The Tigers have played two teams with a winning record and lost them both.
Texas A&M had me believing that their defense would help them reach the game against Texas with only one loss. That’s on me. I should have known better.
What mistakes am I making this week?
I’ll be honest, this is the least confident I have been about my top four seeds since the start of the season.
I still believe Miami will finish the season undefeated and win the ACC. Clearly Miami is shaky. But so are all of the other potential top four seeds.
I was so close to slotting Texas back in as the SEC champion. If UT hadn’t just given up four sacks to Vanderbilt after giving up 11 to Georgia and Quinn Ewers had shown in Nashville that he was capable of consistently completing passes more than five yards down the field, then Texas would be my projected SEC champ now. The Horns still very well may end up being there because in my heart of hearts, I think UT is better than Georgia and would win a rematch in the SEC Championship game. Of course, I thought in my heart of hearts that they would beat UGA the first time around too. Never in my wildest dreams could I have predicted that UT would only muster 15 points against Georgia.
Still, I can’t shake the feeling that the Bulldogs may still have another loss in them. They play at Ole Miss this week and then home against Tennessee the next week. If they survive those two then they will have locked up a seat in the SEC championship game.
Ohio State didn’t exactly set the world on fire in Happy Valley and I’m not sure they will beat Indiana either. But assuming they do (and you know what they say about assumptions … but that’s kind of the point of this column is making assumptions while looking into the future …) then a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game is the most likely scenario. Oregon got a little lucky to beat Ohio State in Eugene. Having the Ducks fly to Indianapolis to take on the Buckeyes again feels like too much to ask. So I’ll stick with Ohio State being a one-loss Big Ten champion and therefore the three seed behind a one-loss SEC champion and an undefeated ACC champion.
BYU still hasn’t lost either. But the Big 12 is just such a crap bag that it is hard to take them seriously to be ranked very high. BYU’s win over SMU, in Dallas, is their most impressive victory so far. The Cougars were able to hold the Mustangs to five field goals in that game and won it 18-15. Of course, I have Miami as the one seed and their most impressive resume building win may very well end up being a win over SMU in the ACC championship game. So we’ll have to see where the CFP puts BYU in its rankings.
OREGON VS. SMU
Again, this assumes Oregon wins out and then loses in the Big Ten title game. That would make them a one loss team and likely the highest ranked non-conference champ. I don’t see the CFP committee dinging the Ducks too badly for losing that game, especially if it is close.
SMU will be in a similar situation. The Mustangs will be coming off a loss in the ACC Championship game to Miami. It will also be the second loss for the ponies, but both of their losses in this scenario would be to teams that could finish undefeated, be conference champs and top four seeds.
The only drawback for SMU in this scenario is that they won’t have a big time win to hang their hat on. Certainly other two-loss teams, such as Alabama, will feel they’re being robbed. At least Bama has their win over Georgia. But again, I’m going to side on the note of caution that the CFP committee won’t slam SMU too hard for losing in the ACC title game. As long as the ponies keep it close, I think they have a legit shot of making the CFP.
TEXAS VS. TENNESSEE
Who is the real UT? Which shade of orange is the best? Let’s settle it on the field.
This is, honestly, one of the worst case scenarios for Texas. They would have to go through Tennessee, Ohio State and potentially Georgia just to reach the championship game. That’s not impossible, but it is asking a lot. Which is why it would be much better to just go ahead and win the SEC and avoid having to play an extra game in the CFP.
I don’t think Tennessee needs to win out to make the CFP. Even if they stumble against Georgia, they will still be a two loss team and would still get in over another two-loss team such as Alabama, by virtue of their win over the Tide. Of course, a loss to Georgia means the Volunteers would still need to beat Vanderbilt in Nashville and that’s no longer a gimme.
The Vols are vulnerable. Their offense, under freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava is a work in progress. But the Vols defense is amongst the best of the best. If Georgia and Vanderbilt can give the Texas o-line fits, then Tennessee can do the same.
NOTRE DAME VS. INDIANA
The battle of the Hoosier state is on!
I’m a big fan of what IU head coach Curt Cignetti is doing in Bloomington. I know they haven’t beaten anyone notable, but they have beaten the dog snot out of everyone. It shouldn’t shock anyone if the Hoosiers don’t just run the table and beat Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue and finish the regular season undefeated.
Notre Dame isn’t likely to lose again either. Army is the toughest matchup left on their schedule (Florida State, Virginia, Army and at USC). That would give the Irish a one-loss season and the right to host a playoff game in South Bend.
Of course I’m talking about the first College Football Playoff rankings being released this evening.
Forget about the AP poll. Don’t even bother with the coaches poll. Those are just early season fodder. It is the rankings of the CFP selection committee that will determine who makes the playoffs (with the obvious caveat that the five highest ranked conference champions get automatic bids).
It should be noted that you are still going to see differences between the CFP rankings and my projections. That’s because mine are just that … projections. I’m forecasting what I think will happen by the end of the season and I assure you that my powers to accurately predict what will happen in college football are just as mundane as any of your powers to do the same.
That being said, we’ve seen quite a shakeup in this weeks projections. There were two teams in last week’s projections who lost last week giving them two losses on the season and a third is more likely than not to come.
Clemson, which I had reluctantly put in the poll in the first place, was as big of a fraud as I suspected they were. The Tigers have played two teams with a winning record and lost them both.
Texas A&M had me believing that their defense would help them reach the game against Texas with only one loss. That’s on me. I should have known better.
What mistakes am I making this week?
I’ll be honest, this is the least confident I have been about my top four seeds since the start of the season.
I still believe Miami will finish the season undefeated and win the ACC. Clearly Miami is shaky. But so are all of the other potential top four seeds.
I was so close to slotting Texas back in as the SEC champion. If UT hadn’t just given up four sacks to Vanderbilt after giving up 11 to Georgia and Quinn Ewers had shown in Nashville that he was capable of consistently completing passes more than five yards down the field, then Texas would be my projected SEC champ now. The Horns still very well may end up being there because in my heart of hearts, I think UT is better than Georgia and would win a rematch in the SEC Championship game. Of course, I thought in my heart of hearts that they would beat UGA the first time around too. Never in my wildest dreams could I have predicted that UT would only muster 15 points against Georgia.
Still, I can’t shake the feeling that the Bulldogs may still have another loss in them. They play at Ole Miss this week and then home against Tennessee the next week. If they survive those two then they will have locked up a seat in the SEC championship game.
Ohio State didn’t exactly set the world on fire in Happy Valley and I’m not sure they will beat Indiana either. But assuming they do (and you know what they say about assumptions … but that’s kind of the point of this column is making assumptions while looking into the future …) then a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game is the most likely scenario. Oregon got a little lucky to beat Ohio State in Eugene. Having the Ducks fly to Indianapolis to take on the Buckeyes again feels like too much to ask. So I’ll stick with Ohio State being a one-loss Big Ten champion and therefore the three seed behind a one-loss SEC champion and an undefeated ACC champion.
BYU still hasn’t lost either. But the Big 12 is just such a crap bag that it is hard to take them seriously to be ranked very high. BYU’s win over SMU, in Dallas, is their most impressive victory so far. The Cougars were able to hold the Mustangs to five field goals in that game and won it 18-15. Of course, I have Miami as the one seed and their most impressive resume building win may very well end up being a win over SMU in the ACC championship game. So we’ll have to see where the CFP puts BYU in its rankings.
OREGON VS. SMU
Again, this assumes Oregon wins out and then loses in the Big Ten title game. That would make them a one loss team and likely the highest ranked non-conference champ. I don’t see the CFP committee dinging the Ducks too badly for losing that game, especially if it is close.
SMU will be in a similar situation. The Mustangs will be coming off a loss in the ACC Championship game to Miami. It will also be the second loss for the ponies, but both of their losses in this scenario would be to teams that could finish undefeated, be conference champs and top four seeds.
The only drawback for SMU in this scenario is that they won’t have a big time win to hang their hat on. Certainly other two-loss teams, such as Alabama, will feel they’re being robbed. At least Bama has their win over Georgia. But again, I’m going to side on the note of caution that the CFP committee won’t slam SMU too hard for losing in the ACC title game. As long as the ponies keep it close, I think they have a legit shot of making the CFP.
TEXAS VS. TENNESSEE
Who is the real UT? Which shade of orange is the best? Let’s settle it on the field.
This is, honestly, one of the worst case scenarios for Texas. They would have to go through Tennessee, Ohio State and potentially Georgia just to reach the championship game. That’s not impossible, but it is asking a lot. Which is why it would be much better to just go ahead and win the SEC and avoid having to play an extra game in the CFP.
I don’t think Tennessee needs to win out to make the CFP. Even if they stumble against Georgia, they will still be a two loss team and would still get in over another two-loss team such as Alabama, by virtue of their win over the Tide. Of course, a loss to Georgia means the Volunteers would still need to beat Vanderbilt in Nashville and that’s no longer a gimme.
The Vols are vulnerable. Their offense, under freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava is a work in progress. But the Vols defense is amongst the best of the best. If Georgia and Vanderbilt can give the Texas o-line fits, then Tennessee can do the same.
NOTRE DAME VS. INDIANA
The battle of the Hoosier state is on!
I’m a big fan of what IU head coach Curt Cignetti is doing in Bloomington. I know they haven’t beaten anyone notable, but they have beaten the dog snot out of everyone. It shouldn’t shock anyone if the Hoosiers don’t just run the table and beat Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue and finish the regular season undefeated.
Notre Dame isn’t likely to lose again either. Army is the toughest matchup left on their schedule (Florida State, Virginia, Army and at USC). That would give the Irish a one-loss season and the right to host a playoff game in South Bend.
