Trump should have won in 2020. Let's call a second Trump Term in 2020 Trump 2.0 and the second Trump Term in 2024, Trump 2.1. A Trump 2.0 term probably deals with a divided Congress- maybe with Dems in charge of both the House and Senate. They would have effectively blocked all of his initiatives and harassed him with investigations and lawsuits. He was fighting with some of his key staffers- John Bolton and Bill Barr come to mind. He would have had the continued management and cost of Covid for at least his first year. In short, his second term would not have had the right people, no momentum and be dominated by the draining Covid crisis.
Instead, Trump 2.1 benefits from (let's use a sports analogy) an extended halftime? a bye week? an intense off season?
I think it is like an intense off season. Essentially the aborted Trump 2.0 change of power fired his entire staff (lots of good people but lots of dissenters). In the off season he was able to hunker down with a few key aides to analyze what went right and wrong in Term 1 and plan a new path forward. He was able to meet and probe some younger, fresher minds and voices. Through the terrible drudgery of lawfare he was able to establish true allies.
In Term 1 he almost seemed surprised that he won and put together his transition on the fly. Because he had no government executive experience he had to rely heavily on old Republicans who had been in the Trump White House or came highly recommended from new Republican allies. He spent his early political capital on the repeal of Obamacare, only to lose. To his credit, the vote was fulfillment of a campaign promise. But he did it too quickly and learned that Republicans had lots of complaints about Obamacare but no clear realistic alternative- which was the fault of Congressional Republicans and staff. He passed his Tax Cut which spurred economic growth and used his executive power to cut regulations.
But Dems took Congress in 2018 and dove into the Russia gate and the phone call with Zelensky. Despite those problems he was cruising to reelection- probably in a race against Bernie Sanders. Until Covid hit and turned the race and the world upside down. So thoroughly that he lost a rigged election in 2020.
All THAT is a lot of experience.
NOW he gets to start with a completely clean slate. A Republican Senate and a likely Republican House. He gets to pick a new staff and appoint true allies to key positions- without having to do a mass Stalinist type of purge. His detractors and political opponents had 4 years to kick him while he was down. And they didn't break him. So the new complaints, criticisms and attacks in Term 2 will have less impact- unless Trump gives them new material in an unforced error. In short, Trump term 2.1 gets one of those mystical, almost fictional do-overs that we all daydream about.
So, if Trump can focus on the true policy objectives and stay away from pettiness, he has another chance to be a truly transcendent President. The first since Reagan. I am praying for his success.
Instead, Trump 2.1 benefits from (let's use a sports analogy) an extended halftime? a bye week? an intense off season?
I think it is like an intense off season. Essentially the aborted Trump 2.0 change of power fired his entire staff (lots of good people but lots of dissenters). In the off season he was able to hunker down with a few key aides to analyze what went right and wrong in Term 1 and plan a new path forward. He was able to meet and probe some younger, fresher minds and voices. Through the terrible drudgery of lawfare he was able to establish true allies.
In Term 1 he almost seemed surprised that he won and put together his transition on the fly. Because he had no government executive experience he had to rely heavily on old Republicans who had been in the Trump White House or came highly recommended from new Republican allies. He spent his early political capital on the repeal of Obamacare, only to lose. To his credit, the vote was fulfillment of a campaign promise. But he did it too quickly and learned that Republicans had lots of complaints about Obamacare but no clear realistic alternative- which was the fault of Congressional Republicans and staff. He passed his Tax Cut which spurred economic growth and used his executive power to cut regulations.
But Dems took Congress in 2018 and dove into the Russia gate and the phone call with Zelensky. Despite those problems he was cruising to reelection- probably in a race against Bernie Sanders. Until Covid hit and turned the race and the world upside down. So thoroughly that he lost a rigged election in 2020.
All THAT is a lot of experience.
NOW he gets to start with a completely clean slate. A Republican Senate and a likely Republican House. He gets to pick a new staff and appoint true allies to key positions- without having to do a mass Stalinist type of purge. His detractors and political opponents had 4 years to kick him while he was down. And they didn't break him. So the new complaints, criticisms and attacks in Term 2 will have less impact- unless Trump gives them new material in an unforced error. In short, Trump term 2.1 gets one of those mystical, almost fictional do-overs that we all daydream about.
So, if Trump can focus on the true policy objectives and stay away from pettiness, he has another chance to be a truly transcendent President. The first since Reagan. I am praying for his success.
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