Daily Short #200, July 11th, 2018: Buy or Sell Leftovers
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Support the Short by supporting our sponsor - Give Wendy a call today!
Daily Short No.200 -- who'd have thunk it?
Especially given the unpopular genesis of this (I guess it's no-longer-"new)," almost-daily endeavor back on May 29th, 2017.
For those who might not remember, the Short's maiden voyage was a column predicting which players were the most likely attrition candidates on the Texas roster. It caused such a ruckus that @Ketchum had to take it down and give me that dreaded "Uncle Ketch" call that I inevitably get every now and then when I let my lack of social graces (and good sense about what is and what isn't appropriate) get the best of me.
I wish I had a something wild and crazy planned to commemorate the occasion, but the truth is that this edition of the Short comes to you from the greasy hallways of the Travis County Tax Assessor where I'm waiting in a long line for the doors to open so that I can pick up my wife's new license plates. (Shout out to Travis County for making people have to come pick these damn things up in person like we're neanderthals). I got here 30 minutes before they even open and I'm still probably 100 people deep in line. My genius plan to save a little time was foiled because the county is apparently a pain in everyone else's ass, too.
Like last week, I'll use this column to get to a few of the 'Buy or Sell' questions I was unable to get to when filling in for Ketch's 10 Thoughts from the Weekend feature:
1) 4 D/ST touchdowns - BUY. Jerrod Heard gets two on returns and Orlando dials up enough opportunities for a few more to occur on defense.
2) 2800 yards for Ehlinger - Hesitantly BUY. He's the best bet to start and while a starter, even Case McCoy can throw for 2,000 yards over a Big 12 season.
3) Rising will overtake Buechele in 2018 - SELL. That won't occur this year.
4) Anderson drafted earlier than Williams was - SELL. The idea is laughable.
5) Double-digit sacks for Hager - SELL. He could certainly get there (and his pocketbook hopes he does for NFL purposes) but Texas hasn't seen a player book more than 6.5 sacks since Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed were healthy.
6) BJ Foster starts at safety - SELL. At least to start the season. He'll have the opportunity to play meaningful snaps in the lightning sub-package, however, should he win the job out of 4-5 reasonable candidates.
7) BJ Foster two forced fumbles - SELL. Way too random an event to predict happening twice.
35-plus points a game?! I believe Texas has only done that once since Colt McCoy left town! Excuse me for not having that much faith in an OC like Tim Beck who has done absolutely zero to show he's even worthy of being a QBs coach at a place like Texas, much less a coordinating playcaller. That's a SELL. As for the kicking being a huge issue "again" this season, I'm going to SELL that as well. At some point, things have to even out in this area and Texas has been on the wrong side of variance when it comes to that aspect of the game for too long.
BUY - Hand is a great coach and Texas finally has the depth to make the on-field product look workable. If there's a guy who can do it, I believe in Hand. Lord knows I'm dying for a more enjoyable product to spend 30 hours a week breaking down -- hopefully this isn't just wishful thinking.
BUY - We may have seen his ceiling in his first game of the 2016 season against Notre Dame. He's had plenty of time to show more frequent flashes that there's more potential brooding underneath the surface.
Buying or selling team leaders in statistics:
Passing Yards: Sam Ehlinger - BUY. If this is another QB by committee, we're in for a long season.
Rushing Yards: Tre Watson - SELL. I still like guys like Daniel Young and Toneil Carter, plus we're hearing very strong stuff from behind the scenes this week from Keaontay Ingram. I'm not going to heap any expectations on Watson until I see him on the field with the other guys in a few weeks.
Receiving Yds: Lil’Jordan Humphrey - BUY. It will be him or Collin Johnson.
Rushing TDs: Sam Ehlinger - SELL. Again, if things play out like this for Sam and the team, Texas will have had a another putrid season offensively.
Receiving TDs: Collin Johnson - BUY. You could tell in spring that he's taking pride in becoming a contested-catch beast in end-zone drills. He's going to get those targets should Texas put itself in scoring position consistently.
Pancakes: Patrick Vahe - SELL. Vahe needs to pick up his game as much or more than anyone on this team. Calvin Anderson generated knockdowns at Rice at a much more frequent clip than any Texas OL did in 2017, so it will be him who leads the team.
Tackles: Gary Johnson - BUY. Of course.
Interceptions: Davante Davis - SELL. He showed in the bowl game that he might be turning a corner but he's far from a lockdown technician at this point. Kris Boyd is currently the better player and the better bet to lead the team in INTs.
Sacks: Breckyn Hager - BUY. While it's impossible to project double-digit sacks as discussed, he's gotta be the odds-on favorite to lead the team (with Charles Omenihu in a close second).
Return Yards: Jerrod Heard - BUY. Easily.
True Freshman to play most (offense): Keaontay Ingram - BUY. Even though it is a big, crowded RB room, we've seen that Stan Drayton rotates an inordinate amount of players per game at RB and Ingram doesn't exactly have a stable of bellcows ahead of him.
True Freshman to play most (defense): Caden Sterns - BUY. By the end of spring practices (thanks to a few injuries) Sterns was actually already running with the first group. He was probably the player who, as spring ball wore on, you became to be the most impressed with, even in a defensive backfield featuring other true-freshman studs like BJ Foster and Anthony Cook.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Support the Short by supporting our sponsor - Give Wendy a call today!
Daily Short No.200 -- who'd have thunk it?
Especially given the unpopular genesis of this (I guess it's no-longer-"new)," almost-daily endeavor back on May 29th, 2017.
For those who might not remember, the Short's maiden voyage was a column predicting which players were the most likely attrition candidates on the Texas roster. It caused such a ruckus that @Ketchum had to take it down and give me that dreaded "Uncle Ketch" call that I inevitably get every now and then when I let my lack of social graces (and good sense about what is and what isn't appropriate) get the best of me.
I wish I had a something wild and crazy planned to commemorate the occasion, but the truth is that this edition of the Short comes to you from the greasy hallways of the Travis County Tax Assessor where I'm waiting in a long line for the doors to open so that I can pick up my wife's new license plates. (Shout out to Travis County for making people have to come pick these damn things up in person like we're neanderthals). I got here 30 minutes before they even open and I'm still probably 100 people deep in line. My genius plan to save a little time was foiled because the county is apparently a pain in everyone else's ass, too.
Like last week, I'll use this column to get to a few of the 'Buy or Sell' questions I was unable to get to when filling in for Ketch's 10 Thoughts from the Weekend feature:
1) 4 D/ST touchdowns - BUY. Jerrod Heard gets two on returns and Orlando dials up enough opportunities for a few more to occur on defense.
2) 2800 yards for Ehlinger - Hesitantly BUY. He's the best bet to start and while a starter, even Case McCoy can throw for 2,000 yards over a Big 12 season.
3) Rising will overtake Buechele in 2018 - SELL. That won't occur this year.
4) Anderson drafted earlier than Williams was - SELL. The idea is laughable.
5) Double-digit sacks for Hager - SELL. He could certainly get there (and his pocketbook hopes he does for NFL purposes) but Texas hasn't seen a player book more than 6.5 sacks since Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed were healthy.
6) BJ Foster starts at safety - SELL. At least to start the season. He'll have the opportunity to play meaningful snaps in the lightning sub-package, however, should he win the job out of 4-5 reasonable candidates.
7) BJ Foster two forced fumbles - SELL. Way too random an event to predict happening twice.
35-plus points a game?! I believe Texas has only done that once since Colt McCoy left town! Excuse me for not having that much faith in an OC like Tim Beck who has done absolutely zero to show he's even worthy of being a QBs coach at a place like Texas, much less a coordinating playcaller. That's a SELL. As for the kicking being a huge issue "again" this season, I'm going to SELL that as well. At some point, things have to even out in this area and Texas has been on the wrong side of variance when it comes to that aspect of the game for too long.
BUY - Hand is a great coach and Texas finally has the depth to make the on-field product look workable. If there's a guy who can do it, I believe in Hand. Lord knows I'm dying for a more enjoyable product to spend 30 hours a week breaking down -- hopefully this isn't just wishful thinking.
SELL! (Then again, I would have NEVER said 2017 Kerstetter was a "2017 Kerstetter"-type of candidate).
BUY - We may have seen his ceiling in his first game of the 2016 season against Notre Dame. He's had plenty of time to show more frequent flashes that there's more potential brooding underneath the surface.
Buying or selling team leaders in statistics:
Passing Yards: Sam Ehlinger - BUY. If this is another QB by committee, we're in for a long season.
Rushing Yards: Tre Watson - SELL. I still like guys like Daniel Young and Toneil Carter, plus we're hearing very strong stuff from behind the scenes this week from Keaontay Ingram. I'm not going to heap any expectations on Watson until I see him on the field with the other guys in a few weeks.
Receiving Yds: Lil’Jordan Humphrey - BUY. It will be him or Collin Johnson.
Rushing TDs: Sam Ehlinger - SELL. Again, if things play out like this for Sam and the team, Texas will have had a another putrid season offensively.
Receiving TDs: Collin Johnson - BUY. You could tell in spring that he's taking pride in becoming a contested-catch beast in end-zone drills. He's going to get those targets should Texas put itself in scoring position consistently.
Pancakes: Patrick Vahe - SELL. Vahe needs to pick up his game as much or more than anyone on this team. Calvin Anderson generated knockdowns at Rice at a much more frequent clip than any Texas OL did in 2017, so it will be him who leads the team.
Tackles: Gary Johnson - BUY. Of course.
Interceptions: Davante Davis - SELL. He showed in the bowl game that he might be turning a corner but he's far from a lockdown technician at this point. Kris Boyd is currently the better player and the better bet to lead the team in INTs.
Sacks: Breckyn Hager - BUY. While it's impossible to project double-digit sacks as discussed, he's gotta be the odds-on favorite to lead the team (with Charles Omenihu in a close second).
Return Yards: Jerrod Heard - BUY. Easily.
True Freshman to play most (offense): Keaontay Ingram - BUY. Even though it is a big, crowded RB room, we've seen that Stan Drayton rotates an inordinate amount of players per game at RB and Ingram doesn't exactly have a stable of bellcows ahead of him.
True Freshman to play most (defense): Caden Sterns - BUY. By the end of spring practices (thanks to a few injuries) Sterns was actually already running with the first group. He was probably the player who, as spring ball wore on, you became to be the most impressed with, even in a defensive backfield featuring other true-freshman studs like BJ Foster and Anthony Cook.
