Daily Short #171, April 16th, 2018: Betting on Future Contributions
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Support the Short by supporting our sponsor - Give Wendy a call today!
If I was a Vegas Bookmaker, these are the betting lines I'd put on the Texas incoming true freshman (among SUMMER ENROLLEES - THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE EARLY ENROLLEES OR TRANSFERS) to come out of 2018 as the the one viewed by fans, coaches and analysts alike as the biggest "difference-maker."
If you understand how money lines in American betting work, skip this segment ---
***
Here's how American sports-betting money-lines work for you non-degenerates as sports betting will soon be legal in America and it's interesting to know, even if you don't partake in the art, magic and mystery of incentivized sports speculation:
You see something that looks like this, for example:
Alex will take a shot of tequila around 7pm this evening: -150
Alex will not take a shot of tequila around 7pm this evening: +200
The minus-sign indicates to you -- as a bettor -- if you are taking the -150 side, that you are betting the favorite in the matchup.
The team, player, event, etc. with the minus-sign next to its name is implied by the bookmaker to be victorious/correct in whatever outcome your are speculating on over the long run. So, for your -150 wager, you'd have to put up $150 dollars as a bet to win $100 back. If you bet I'm going to take the tequila shot and it turns out to be true on a -150 bet you laid, you win back $100 plus the $150 you put down, to put $250 total in your pocket to end the transaction.
The plus-sign indicates to you -- as a bettor -- if you are taking the +200 side, that you are betting the underdog in the matchup.
The team, player, event, etc. with the plus-sign next to its name is implied by the bookmaker to be the loser/incorrect in whatever outcome your are speculating on over the long run. So, for your +200 wager, you'd have to put up only $100 dollars as a bet to win $200 back. If you bet I'm NOT going to take the tequila shot and it turns out to be true on the bet you laid, you win back $200 plus the $100 you put down, to put $300 total in your pocket to end the transaction.
In an exercise like the one we're about to partake in, there doesn't necessarily have to be a "favorite" as far as the "minus" or "plus"-portion of the money line is concerned. In a big golf tournament, for example, there usually isn't one golfer out of a huge field who is -225 to win the tourney. If there was, it would be one hell of a boring tournament. With a pool of so many options, no one will be a "favorite" to win, but it's implied that the underdog with the best odds of winning is clearly a "favorite" among the field.
***
With that out of the way, it's a topic worth discussing. Because this 2018 Texas football team - more than anything - needs difference-makers. More than athletes, more than "senior leaders," and "glue-guys." Fans are sick and tired about hearing from those guys. Texas needs playmakers - and it needs them immediately.
If they're going to bite as dogs, they're going to bite as puppies. Tom Herman said at the end of spring game something that set off a small alarm bell in my head: it was something along the lines of "Again, we're going to need to count on contributions from guys getting here in the summer. You'd like to get to a point where you don't have to be counting on freshman to make an impact, but it's where we are again."
So who are those guys going to be? Who's he alluding to?
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE EARLY ENROLLEES OR TRANSFERS!
RB Keaontay Ingram -125
- The only "true-favorite" proposition is that Keaontay Ingram is the true-freshman summer enrollee who has the biggest impact. The staff has literally almost come out and said as much. The RB group during spring camp has not done much to instill confidence.
DT Moro Ojomo +350
DT Keondre Coburn +350
- It's not likely that Ojomo or Coburn is the biggest first-year contributor among early enrollees, but they're next in line after Ingram. Depth among the group is relatively thin. Ojomo and/or Coburn could easily be slated for Ta'Quon Graham 2017-like usage which could realistically end up being the most impact by a true-freshman summer enrollee. If Texas had only signed one of these players, that player alone -- in the absence of the other -- I'd likely peg as more of a +250 or +300. Since part of the riddle with these two is picking which one will be more effective, I settled on +350 to compensate.
OL Junior Angilau +600
- Texas could be in trouble if he has to start, but let's be honest, we've seen enough injuries along the OL in recent years to know nothing is impossible. I'm pretty convinced at this point that the tea leaves are reading that Angilau will be putting off and/or nixing outright his post-high-school Mormon mission. If he's going to be part of a camp battle to become one of the Top 5 OL to make the starting lineup, his odds of making the biggest impact among the group should be considered reasonable.
S DeMarvion Overshown +750
- Texas is loaded to the gills with young safeties, but Overshown's high school film is elite and the Longhorns' primary base package now includes three safeties on the field at the same time. If it wasn't for the presence of Caden Sterns and BJ Foster (who both have head starts on Overshown), then Overshown would probably have the second-best odds of the group behind Ingram.
TE Malcolm Epps +900
- Is it really that hard to imagine one of the best TE prospects in the state and a highly touted guy coming in and blowing everyone's socks off? While Reese Leitao is looking like a nice prospect and Andrew Beck is a proven leader of the team, neither guy is a proven producer. Who knows when Cade Brewer is going to be ready to go following ACL surgery last year. There is enough wiggle room in the TE corps for a super-talented young player to come in and force the staff to continue getting him involved.
DE Daniel Carson +1500
DE Mike Williams +1500
- I put these two in the same bucket as bigger edge-guys that are almost sure to play with their hand in the dirt. It's hard to see either making a huge impact this year as they'll play the same positions as Breckyn Hager, Charles Omenihu and other veterans across the defensive line. Barring injuries, the reasonable level I could see one of these guys successfully aspiring to would be one of overtaking a guy like Andrew Fitzgerald as a potentially lightly used platoon player.
CB D'Shawn Jamison +1500
CB Jalen Green +1500
- The long odds on this list have nothing to do with either player's abilities. Both will be terrific for Texas, it's just very unlikely it will occur as freshman. Even if a key injury were to occur to a player like Kris Boyd, we've seen this spring during Davante Davis' absence that guys like Kobe Boyce and Anthony Cook are going to be tough to beat out for snaps and Texas DBs don't substitute personnel through games.
WR Joshua Moore +1500
WR Al'vonte Woodard +1750
- Again both are fantastic players who will eventually make impacts at Texas (and Moore is more likely to do the fact that Herman says he will be a 'dynamic returner') but they're in the same bucket as young WRs who'll be pretty far down a stacked depth chart among the team's strongest and deepest position group. If either of these guys sees significant snaps at WR this season, it will either mean there were a ton of injuries or that they came in and immediately showed that they are all-world, three-years-and-then-NFL-lock-type players.
LB Byron Hobbs +2000
DE/LB Joseph Ossai +2000
- While both nice players, they both project to play outside linebacker which is a role that is convoluted with two impediments to contributing early: 1) Malcolm Roach and Jeffrey McCulloch would be ahead of them on the depth chart and; 2) the position simply doesn't play much as it comes off the field when the defensive staff goes to its more heavily used dime/lightning package featuring a box-safety which takes over the b-backer duties.
OL Reese Moore +3000
OL Christian Jones +3000
OL Rafiti Ghirmai +3000
- OL depth is always fantastic and Texas got a bunch in this class, however, these three players are developmental prospects who I would be shocked to see make impacts as true freshman. Give them a little time in the system, though, and chances are at least one will be a significant future contributor ... likely Reese Moore who has arguably the highest upside of anyone in the class.
But we're not talking eventual upside, we're talking immediate impact. Tom Herman knows better than anyone that Texas fans want wins now, not promises about the future.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Support the Short by supporting our sponsor - Give Wendy a call today!
If I was a Vegas Bookmaker, these are the betting lines I'd put on the Texas incoming true freshman (among SUMMER ENROLLEES - THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE EARLY ENROLLEES OR TRANSFERS) to come out of 2018 as the the one viewed by fans, coaches and analysts alike as the biggest "difference-maker."
If you understand how money lines in American betting work, skip this segment ---
***
Here's how American sports-betting money-lines work for you non-degenerates as sports betting will soon be legal in America and it's interesting to know, even if you don't partake in the art, magic and mystery of incentivized sports speculation:
You see something that looks like this, for example:
Alex will take a shot of tequila around 7pm this evening: -150
Alex will not take a shot of tequila around 7pm this evening: +200
The minus-sign indicates to you -- as a bettor -- if you are taking the -150 side, that you are betting the favorite in the matchup.
The team, player, event, etc. with the minus-sign next to its name is implied by the bookmaker to be victorious/correct in whatever outcome your are speculating on over the long run. So, for your -150 wager, you'd have to put up $150 dollars as a bet to win $100 back. If you bet I'm going to take the tequila shot and it turns out to be true on a -150 bet you laid, you win back $100 plus the $150 you put down, to put $250 total in your pocket to end the transaction.
The plus-sign indicates to you -- as a bettor -- if you are taking the +200 side, that you are betting the underdog in the matchup.
The team, player, event, etc. with the plus-sign next to its name is implied by the bookmaker to be the loser/incorrect in whatever outcome your are speculating on over the long run. So, for your +200 wager, you'd have to put up only $100 dollars as a bet to win $200 back. If you bet I'm NOT going to take the tequila shot and it turns out to be true on the bet you laid, you win back $200 plus the $100 you put down, to put $300 total in your pocket to end the transaction.
In an exercise like the one we're about to partake in, there doesn't necessarily have to be a "favorite" as far as the "minus" or "plus"-portion of the money line is concerned. In a big golf tournament, for example, there usually isn't one golfer out of a huge field who is -225 to win the tourney. If there was, it would be one hell of a boring tournament. With a pool of so many options, no one will be a "favorite" to win, but it's implied that the underdog with the best odds of winning is clearly a "favorite" among the field.
***
With that out of the way, it's a topic worth discussing. Because this 2018 Texas football team - more than anything - needs difference-makers. More than athletes, more than "senior leaders," and "glue-guys." Fans are sick and tired about hearing from those guys. Texas needs playmakers - and it needs them immediately.
If they're going to bite as dogs, they're going to bite as puppies. Tom Herman said at the end of spring game something that set off a small alarm bell in my head: it was something along the lines of "Again, we're going to need to count on contributions from guys getting here in the summer. You'd like to get to a point where you don't have to be counting on freshman to make an impact, but it's where we are again."
So who are those guys going to be? Who's he alluding to?
THIS LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE EARLY ENROLLEES OR TRANSFERS!
RB Keaontay Ingram -125
- The only "true-favorite" proposition is that Keaontay Ingram is the true-freshman summer enrollee who has the biggest impact. The staff has literally almost come out and said as much. The RB group during spring camp has not done much to instill confidence.
DT Moro Ojomo +350
DT Keondre Coburn +350
- It's not likely that Ojomo or Coburn is the biggest first-year contributor among early enrollees, but they're next in line after Ingram. Depth among the group is relatively thin. Ojomo and/or Coburn could easily be slated for Ta'Quon Graham 2017-like usage which could realistically end up being the most impact by a true-freshman summer enrollee. If Texas had only signed one of these players, that player alone -- in the absence of the other -- I'd likely peg as more of a +250 or +300. Since part of the riddle with these two is picking which one will be more effective, I settled on +350 to compensate.
OL Junior Angilau +600
- Texas could be in trouble if he has to start, but let's be honest, we've seen enough injuries along the OL in recent years to know nothing is impossible. I'm pretty convinced at this point that the tea leaves are reading that Angilau will be putting off and/or nixing outright his post-high-school Mormon mission. If he's going to be part of a camp battle to become one of the Top 5 OL to make the starting lineup, his odds of making the biggest impact among the group should be considered reasonable.
S DeMarvion Overshown +750
- Texas is loaded to the gills with young safeties, but Overshown's high school film is elite and the Longhorns' primary base package now includes three safeties on the field at the same time. If it wasn't for the presence of Caden Sterns and BJ Foster (who both have head starts on Overshown), then Overshown would probably have the second-best odds of the group behind Ingram.
TE Malcolm Epps +900
- Is it really that hard to imagine one of the best TE prospects in the state and a highly touted guy coming in and blowing everyone's socks off? While Reese Leitao is looking like a nice prospect and Andrew Beck is a proven leader of the team, neither guy is a proven producer. Who knows when Cade Brewer is going to be ready to go following ACL surgery last year. There is enough wiggle room in the TE corps for a super-talented young player to come in and force the staff to continue getting him involved.
DE Daniel Carson +1500
DE Mike Williams +1500
- I put these two in the same bucket as bigger edge-guys that are almost sure to play with their hand in the dirt. It's hard to see either making a huge impact this year as they'll play the same positions as Breckyn Hager, Charles Omenihu and other veterans across the defensive line. Barring injuries, the reasonable level I could see one of these guys successfully aspiring to would be one of overtaking a guy like Andrew Fitzgerald as a potentially lightly used platoon player.
CB D'Shawn Jamison +1500
CB Jalen Green +1500
- The long odds on this list have nothing to do with either player's abilities. Both will be terrific for Texas, it's just very unlikely it will occur as freshman. Even if a key injury were to occur to a player like Kris Boyd, we've seen this spring during Davante Davis' absence that guys like Kobe Boyce and Anthony Cook are going to be tough to beat out for snaps and Texas DBs don't substitute personnel through games.
WR Joshua Moore +1500
WR Al'vonte Woodard +1750
- Again both are fantastic players who will eventually make impacts at Texas (and Moore is more likely to do the fact that Herman says he will be a 'dynamic returner') but they're in the same bucket as young WRs who'll be pretty far down a stacked depth chart among the team's strongest and deepest position group. If either of these guys sees significant snaps at WR this season, it will either mean there were a ton of injuries or that they came in and immediately showed that they are all-world, three-years-and-then-NFL-lock-type players.
LB Byron Hobbs +2000
DE/LB Joseph Ossai +2000
- While both nice players, they both project to play outside linebacker which is a role that is convoluted with two impediments to contributing early: 1) Malcolm Roach and Jeffrey McCulloch would be ahead of them on the depth chart and; 2) the position simply doesn't play much as it comes off the field when the defensive staff goes to its more heavily used dime/lightning package featuring a box-safety which takes over the b-backer duties.
OL Reese Moore +3000
OL Christian Jones +3000
OL Rafiti Ghirmai +3000
- OL depth is always fantastic and Texas got a bunch in this class, however, these three players are developmental prospects who I would be shocked to see make impacts as true freshman. Give them a little time in the system, though, and chances are at least one will be a significant future contributor ... likely Reese Moore who has arguably the highest upside of anyone in the class.
But we're not talking eventual upside, we're talking immediate impact. Tom Herman knows better than anyone that Texas fans want wins now, not promises about the future.
