Daily Short #105, November 21st, 2017: Deep Dig - Updated Defensive Rankings
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TIER ONE
1) S Deshon Elliott - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T1)
SEASON: 13.05% market share of defensive productivity; 6.42 snaps per production caused (3rd) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
2) LB Malik Jefferson - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T1)
SEASON: 12.47% market share of defensive productivity; 6.64 snaps per production caused (6th)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 10.39% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (5th)
4) NT Poona Ford - 39 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.81% market share of defensive productivity; 6.44 snaps per production caused (4th)
It's going to be a race to the finish versus Texas Tech as Malik Jefferson will look to take back over the cat bird's seat in the Deep Dig's defensive productivity rankings from Texas' top breakout player of the 2017 season, Deshon Elliott.
When we talk about Malik Jefferson, it is generally just assumed by fans of the program -- for good reason -- that he will not be back for a senior season at Texas. This notion has been supported by reports from NFL draft media regrding how teams view Jefferson as well as by Coach Tom Herman himself, who said at his availability post-Baylor that Jefferson and Connor Williams were the only two underclassmen who NFL scouts have inquired about to the staff.
I floated the idea last week about whether we need to start thinking about Deshon Elliott within this same class of player and following another great week efficiency-wise in the production department, Elliott has been named one of three finalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which is given to the best DB in all of college football annually.
This is not a preseason watch-list type of honor; this is the real deal. Being a finalist for anything as prestigious the Thorpe Award as a draft-eligible junior will always, naturally, allow thoughts to arise about going pro. Who wouldn't think about millions of dollars awaiting you in the league whenever you're being honored as one of the top three DBs in all of college football? It's only natural for a 20-year old young man to think to himself that if he's already at the pinnacle of his current level of competition, why not move on?
And I've had interactions on this message board and the cesspool that is Twitter.com about Elliott "only having one good year of tape," or others saying he needs to come back to improve his draft stock. Of course, all those engaging in this discourse are fans of the Longhorns who don't want Elliott moving on after he's only really given them such great memories for one year. It's certainly not unbiased opinions from folks who truly care more for the individual athlete than for the the good of Texas Football coming from these corners of the peanut gallery. I don't think any of those people would pay Elliott's salary should he get injured in 2018 and derail a future NFL career.
As for the one "year of tape," I just say look at D'Onta Foreman (who, by the way, you just feel terrible for having torn his achilles during a long-awaited Week 11 breakout with the Houston Texans). What we all have to remember is every single one of these players on scholarship at UT -- every single one -- came to Texas to play football, and with hopes of one day playing in the NFL. I have more news for you that you: it's not illegal or even impermissible for NFL agents to be having conversations with college players during their college careers. Of course, players cannot sign with said agents or accept any form of payment, compensation or benefit, but they can talk.
And agents. are. persuasive.
They are persuasive because they are lawyers by academic preparation, recruiters by trade and and communicators in the moment of the message that these guys want to hear the most anyway:
"We're going to make a boatload of money together."
Malik Jefferson is as good as gone as is Connor Williams. And now, guess what? Tom Herman is going to have to do one hell of a recruiting job to keep the Texas defense's current most productive player on the squad for another season.
* * *
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.25% market share of defensive productivity; 7.01 snaps per production caused (7th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 32 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.87% market share of defensive productivity; 5.17 snaps per production caused (1st)
Texas will be without Breckyn Hager for the first half of the Texas Tech game which is a complete sham and a disgrace. I know there are folks who think that Hager could have done more to avoid contacting the WVU QB in the head with the crown of his helmet to initiate a targeting call, but I just can't help seeing this from the perspective of the player who doesn't have the luxury of watching the replays in slo-mo while acting as if the game is actually played at that speed.
Hager's facemask was pulled down during a successful bull rush by an offensive tackle which brought the level of his helmet down and caused him to have to attempt lifting his head through the neck muscles up to disengage from the illegal and uncalled foul. In the milliseconds that preceded his disengaging from the facemask and the helmet-to-helmet contact it would have been impossible for Hager to change his course or divert his aim in any way. They aren't playing in slow motion. Bang-bang plays happen in real-time.
The call was total crap.
As for Johnson, WVU marked the first game in which Anthony Wheeler did not log a snap in relief of either inside linebacker. Johnson has officially completely overtaken the position of will linebacker bumping Jefferson inside to the mac.
* * *
TIER THREE
7) S Brandon Jones - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.88% market share of defensive productivity; 17.04 snaps per production caused (17th)
8) CB Kris Boyd - 63 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 4.29% market share of defensive productivity; 17.82 snaps per production caused (19th)
9) DE Malcolm Roach - 39 snaps vs.WVU (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.9% market share of defensive productivity; 12.39 snaps per production caused (13th)
10) DE Charles Omenihu - 46 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 3.78% market share of defensive productivity; 15.23 snaps per production caused (15th)
11) DE Chris Nelson - 24 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 3.43% market share of defensive productivity; 11.08 snaps per production caused (11th)
12) LB Anthony Wheeler - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.4% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (14th)
T13) DB Antwuan Davis - 63 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 3.39% market share of defensive productivity; 8.27 snaps per production caused (9th)
T13) S Jason Hall - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 3.39% market share of defensive productivity; 5.32 snaps per production caused (2nd)
15) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.21% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (16th)
Jason Hall and Antwuan Davis moved into Tier 3 and out of the backup-level basement. Hall has been a player that the rankings have shown is a demon on a per-snap basis and we've seen that they were truly predictive in the last two games as Hall has shot of the rankings like a cannon with volume.
Antwuan Davis, on only 241 snaps this season, has officially moved ahead of PJ Locke (443 snaps) in the overall rankings, a player Davis backed up all season until the last 3 games following Locke's injury. On a per-snap basis, Davis is 9th on the team while Locke was at 16th in snaps-per-production-caused. In all, Davis has been much more productive and more of a playmaker.
However, while the flash of Davis' big plays tell one story, the completion percentage allowed into coverage tells another.
Fans who've watched the secondary closely in recent weeks have surely noticed that Davis is fairly unnatural falling into zone shells and just generally looking for work in open space as a coverage man in zone. As a result, he's been much easier to complete passes on than Locke was while in the games. With this said, Locke, when he did give up plays in coverage, was much more likely to get burned.
Here's how the completion percentage and coverage burn numbers break down on the season for Texas DBs coming into Texas Tech:
Opposing completion percentage when targeted:
1) J Bonney - 35.7% completions allowed (5 on 14 targets)
2) P Locke - 37.5% completions allowed (6 on 16 targets)
3) H Hill - 38% completions allowed (16 on 42 targets)
4) K Boyd - 38.2% completions allowed (18 on 47 targets)
T5) D Elliott - 50% completions allowed (7 on 14 targets)
T5) J Hall - 50% completions allowed (2 on 4 targets)
7) D Davis - 54.1% completions allowed (13 on 24 targets)
8) B Jones - 55.5% completions allowed (10 on 18 targets)
9) A Davis - 70% completions allowed (7 on 10 targets)
10) J Thompson - 75% completions allowed (3 on 4 targets)
11) D Duvernay - 100% completions allowed (1 on 1 target)
Snaps per coverage burn
T1. Holton Hill (583 total snaps) - N/A (no burns)
T1. Jason Hall (155 total snaps) - N/A (no burns)
3. D Elliott - 721 snaps per coverage burn
4. A Davis - 241 snaps per coverage burn
5. J Bonney - 222 snaps per coverage burn
6. B Jones - 178.8 snaps per coverage burn
7. K Boyd - 131.6 snaps per coverage burn
8. P Locke - 110.8 snaps per coverage burn
9. D Davis - 69.3 snaps per coverage burn
10. J Thompson - 25 snaps per coverage burn
11. D Duvernay - 12 snaps per coverage burn
* * *
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
16) DB John Bonney - 1 snap vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 2.86% market share of defensive productivity; 9.01 snaps per production caused (10th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: 1.63% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (8th)
18) LB Naashon Hughes - 9 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 1.42% market share of defensive productivity; 34.12 snaps per production caused (21st)
19) CB Davante Davis - 62 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: 1.40% market share of defensive productivity; 17.32 snaps per production caused (18th)
20) NT Gerald Wilbon - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .87% market share of defensive productivity; 11.33 snaps per production caused (12th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .52% market share of defensive productivity; 22.67 snaps per production caused (20th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .35% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .23% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .21% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
TIER ONE
1) S Deshon Elliott - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T1)
SEASON: 13.05% market share of defensive productivity; 6.42 snaps per production caused (3rd) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
2) LB Malik Jefferson - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T1)
SEASON: 12.47% market share of defensive productivity; 6.64 snaps per production caused (6th)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 10.39% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (5th)
4) NT Poona Ford - 39 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.81% market share of defensive productivity; 6.44 snaps per production caused (4th)
It's going to be a race to the finish versus Texas Tech as Malik Jefferson will look to take back over the cat bird's seat in the Deep Dig's defensive productivity rankings from Texas' top breakout player of the 2017 season, Deshon Elliott.
When we talk about Malik Jefferson, it is generally just assumed by fans of the program -- for good reason -- that he will not be back for a senior season at Texas. This notion has been supported by reports from NFL draft media regrding how teams view Jefferson as well as by Coach Tom Herman himself, who said at his availability post-Baylor that Jefferson and Connor Williams were the only two underclassmen who NFL scouts have inquired about to the staff.
I floated the idea last week about whether we need to start thinking about Deshon Elliott within this same class of player and following another great week efficiency-wise in the production department, Elliott has been named one of three finalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which is given to the best DB in all of college football annually.
This is not a preseason watch-list type of honor; this is the real deal. Being a finalist for anything as prestigious the Thorpe Award as a draft-eligible junior will always, naturally, allow thoughts to arise about going pro. Who wouldn't think about millions of dollars awaiting you in the league whenever you're being honored as one of the top three DBs in all of college football? It's only natural for a 20-year old young man to think to himself that if he's already at the pinnacle of his current level of competition, why not move on?
And I've had interactions on this message board and the cesspool that is Twitter.com about Elliott "only having one good year of tape," or others saying he needs to come back to improve his draft stock. Of course, all those engaging in this discourse are fans of the Longhorns who don't want Elliott moving on after he's only really given them such great memories for one year. It's certainly not unbiased opinions from folks who truly care more for the individual athlete than for the the good of Texas Football coming from these corners of the peanut gallery. I don't think any of those people would pay Elliott's salary should he get injured in 2018 and derail a future NFL career.
As for the one "year of tape," I just say look at D'Onta Foreman (who, by the way, you just feel terrible for having torn his achilles during a long-awaited Week 11 breakout with the Houston Texans). What we all have to remember is every single one of these players on scholarship at UT -- every single one -- came to Texas to play football, and with hopes of one day playing in the NFL. I have more news for you that you: it's not illegal or even impermissible for NFL agents to be having conversations with college players during their college careers. Of course, players cannot sign with said agents or accept any form of payment, compensation or benefit, but they can talk.
And agents. are. persuasive.
They are persuasive because they are lawyers by academic preparation, recruiters by trade and and communicators in the moment of the message that these guys want to hear the most anyway:
"We're going to make a boatload of money together."
Malik Jefferson is as good as gone as is Connor Williams. And now, guess what? Tom Herman is going to have to do one hell of a recruiting job to keep the Texas defense's current most productive player on the squad for another season.
* * *
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.25% market share of defensive productivity; 7.01 snaps per production caused (7th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 32 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.87% market share of defensive productivity; 5.17 snaps per production caused (1st)
Texas will be without Breckyn Hager for the first half of the Texas Tech game which is a complete sham and a disgrace. I know there are folks who think that Hager could have done more to avoid contacting the WVU QB in the head with the crown of his helmet to initiate a targeting call, but I just can't help seeing this from the perspective of the player who doesn't have the luxury of watching the replays in slo-mo while acting as if the game is actually played at that speed.
Hager's facemask was pulled down during a successful bull rush by an offensive tackle which brought the level of his helmet down and caused him to have to attempt lifting his head through the neck muscles up to disengage from the illegal and uncalled foul. In the milliseconds that preceded his disengaging from the facemask and the helmet-to-helmet contact it would have been impossible for Hager to change his course or divert his aim in any way. They aren't playing in slow motion. Bang-bang plays happen in real-time.
The call was total crap.
As for Johnson, WVU marked the first game in which Anthony Wheeler did not log a snap in relief of either inside linebacker. Johnson has officially completely overtaken the position of will linebacker bumping Jefferson inside to the mac.
* * *
TIER THREE
7) S Brandon Jones - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.88% market share of defensive productivity; 17.04 snaps per production caused (17th)
8) CB Kris Boyd - 63 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 4.29% market share of defensive productivity; 17.82 snaps per production caused (19th)
9) DE Malcolm Roach - 39 snaps vs.WVU (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.9% market share of defensive productivity; 12.39 snaps per production caused (13th)
10) DE Charles Omenihu - 46 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 3.78% market share of defensive productivity; 15.23 snaps per production caused (15th)
11) DE Chris Nelson - 24 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 3.43% market share of defensive productivity; 11.08 snaps per production caused (11th)
12) LB Anthony Wheeler - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.4% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (14th)
T13) DB Antwuan Davis - 63 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 3.39% market share of defensive productivity; 8.27 snaps per production caused (9th)
T13) S Jason Hall - 63 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 3.39% market share of defensive productivity; 5.32 snaps per production caused (2nd)
15) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.21% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (16th)
Jason Hall and Antwuan Davis moved into Tier 3 and out of the backup-level basement. Hall has been a player that the rankings have shown is a demon on a per-snap basis and we've seen that they were truly predictive in the last two games as Hall has shot of the rankings like a cannon with volume.
Antwuan Davis, on only 241 snaps this season, has officially moved ahead of PJ Locke (443 snaps) in the overall rankings, a player Davis backed up all season until the last 3 games following Locke's injury. On a per-snap basis, Davis is 9th on the team while Locke was at 16th in snaps-per-production-caused. In all, Davis has been much more productive and more of a playmaker.
However, while the flash of Davis' big plays tell one story, the completion percentage allowed into coverage tells another.
Fans who've watched the secondary closely in recent weeks have surely noticed that Davis is fairly unnatural falling into zone shells and just generally looking for work in open space as a coverage man in zone. As a result, he's been much easier to complete passes on than Locke was while in the games. With this said, Locke, when he did give up plays in coverage, was much more likely to get burned.
Here's how the completion percentage and coverage burn numbers break down on the season for Texas DBs coming into Texas Tech:
Opposing completion percentage when targeted:
1) J Bonney - 35.7% completions allowed (5 on 14 targets)
2) P Locke - 37.5% completions allowed (6 on 16 targets)
3) H Hill - 38% completions allowed (16 on 42 targets)
4) K Boyd - 38.2% completions allowed (18 on 47 targets)
T5) D Elliott - 50% completions allowed (7 on 14 targets)
T5) J Hall - 50% completions allowed (2 on 4 targets)
7) D Davis - 54.1% completions allowed (13 on 24 targets)
8) B Jones - 55.5% completions allowed (10 on 18 targets)
9) A Davis - 70% completions allowed (7 on 10 targets)
10) J Thompson - 75% completions allowed (3 on 4 targets)
11) D Duvernay - 100% completions allowed (1 on 1 target)
Snaps per coverage burn
T1. Holton Hill (583 total snaps) - N/A (no burns)
T1. Jason Hall (155 total snaps) - N/A (no burns)
3. D Elliott - 721 snaps per coverage burn
4. A Davis - 241 snaps per coverage burn
5. J Bonney - 222 snaps per coverage burn
6. B Jones - 178.8 snaps per coverage burn
7. K Boyd - 131.6 snaps per coverage burn
8. P Locke - 110.8 snaps per coverage burn
9. D Davis - 69.3 snaps per coverage burn
10. J Thompson - 25 snaps per coverage burn
11. D Duvernay - 12 snaps per coverage burn
* * *
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
16) DB John Bonney - 1 snap vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 2.86% market share of defensive productivity; 9.01 snaps per production caused (10th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: 1.63% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (8th)
18) LB Naashon Hughes - 9 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 1.42% market share of defensive productivity; 34.12 snaps per production caused (21st)
19) CB Davante Davis - 62 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: 1.40% market share of defensive productivity; 17.32 snaps per production caused (18th)
20) NT Gerald Wilbon - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .87% market share of defensive productivity; 11.33 snaps per production caused (12th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .52% market share of defensive productivity; 22.67 snaps per production caused (20th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .35% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .23% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .21% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 0 snaps vs. WVU (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 0 snaps vs. WVU(Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
