Daily Short #109, November 28th, 2017: Deep Dig - FINAL 2017 Defensive Rankings
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Here we are, at the end of the regular season, which means the final installment of the defensive market-share rankings.
Nobody wants to hear a recap of what was a bad game from Tom Herman's bad football team to end what was a horribly disappointing season. As usual around these parts, people seem more interested in looking forward to the future. It's a trend that needs to stop in 2018 if Herman doesn't want to find himself on the hot seat. He's been Charlie Strong thus far in what feels like a Groundhog Day nightmare for Texas fans, waking up each morning to Sonny and Cher. Here's hoping Herman is who the fanbase and University thought he was. After one season, it's a disappointment in itself that we don't know if all that's true.
At least we know that you got me, and baby, I got you.
* * *
With this in mind, I'll present the rankings without comment then give my initial thoughts on how the depth chart will probably look coming into spring given the projected departures of key players on the depth chart.
TIER ONE
1) S Deshon Elliott - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 13.03% market share of defensive productivity; 6.57 snaps per production caused (4th) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
2) LB Malik Jefferson - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 11.91% market share of defensive productivity; 7.11 snaps per production caused (6th)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 9.61% market share of defensive productivity; 8.84 snaps per production caused (3rd)
4) NT Poona Ford - 30 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.84% market share of defensive productivity; 6.30 snaps per production caused (2nd)
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.94% market share of defensive productivity; 7.01 snaps per production caused (5th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 26 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.81% market share of defensive productivity; 5.31 snaps per production caused (1st)
7) CB Kris Boyd - 72 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 5.58% market share of defensive productivity; 14.06 snaps per production caused (14th)
TIER THREE
8) S Brandon Jones - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.51% market share of defensive productivity; 17.04 snaps per production caused (20th)
9) DE Malcolm Roach - 61 snaps vs.Tech (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 4.22% market share of defensive productivity; 12.13 snaps per production caused (13th)
10) DE Charles Omenihu - 56 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.92% market share of defensive productivity; 15.10 snaps per production caused (16th)
11) DE Chris Nelson - 43 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.60% market share of defensive productivity; 11.04 snaps per production caused (11th)
12) DB Antwuan Davis - 75 snaps vs. Tech(Previous Rank: T13)
SEASON: 3.35% market share of defensive productivity; 10.14 snaps per production caused (10th)
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
13) LB Anthony Wheeler - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.14% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (15th)
14) S Jason Hall - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T13)
SEASON: 3.08% market share of defensive productivity; 8.04 snaps per production caused (8th)
15) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 2.97% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (19th)
16) DB John Bonney - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 2.65% market share of defensive productivity; 12.06 snaps per production caused (11th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: 1.51% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (7th)
18) CB Davante Davis - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: 1.45% market share of defensive productivity; 15.39 snaps per production caused (17th)
19) LB Naashon Hughes - 5 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 1.42% market share of defensive productivity; 31.92 snaps per production caused (21st)
20) NT Gerald Wilbon - 2 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: 1.02% market share of defensive productivity; 9.16 snaps per production caused (9th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 2 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .7% market share of defensive productivity; 16 snaps per production caused (18th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .32% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .22% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .2% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 3 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
***
Congrats to Deshon Elliott on being the most productive player on a Texas defense that was the one shining beacon in an otherwise miserable season.
As things currently stand from all we can project, Texas seems certain to lose at least 3/4 of its "TIER ONE" players on defense and possibly all four of them. You can read my column from yesterday about what I'm hearing from NFL sources, but Elliott seems as good as gone -- as he probably should be. Malik Jefferson has been planning on leaving early for two years now. Poona Ford is, of course, a senior who's out of eligibility. The one hope Texas has out of this group is a return from Holton Hill who might have to sit out the first two games of the 2018 season to finish out his suspension. I think the chances of Hill returning are slightly less than 50%.
Other losses will be much more trivial. In "TIER TWO," Texas only really stands to possibly lose Kris Boyd, who was exploring the option of leaving, but I feel is leaning toward coming back and I'd bet he'll be around in 2018.
In "TIER THREE," Texas will obviously lose senior Antwuan Davis who in most measurable ways has been a better nickel corner than PJ Locke, outproducing Locke's productivity on the season, even having played over 130 fewer snaps. There is also a good chance that Charles Omenihu may be moving on. At this time, whether it's wise or not, I'd put Omenihu's odds of returning on the worse side of a coin flip. While Omenihu is not a great fit for Todd Orlando's 3-4 defense and finished in a very uninspiring 16th place in the snaps/production caused department, he's been a very solid contributor in at least a few aspects. For example, he led the team in QB hits (7).
Among those in the "BACKUP, NO PRODUCTION and NEGATIVE"-levels, Texas loses seniors in Jason Hall (who was playing like a starter in his limited run to end the season) and Naashon Hughes (who was on the exact opposite trajectory after the staff stubbornly stuck by him far too long as a team captain to start the season). Hughes' snaps ticked off in a major way toward the end of the year when the defensive staff finally realized what was obvious to anyone else with eyes. Hughes finished the 2017 season ranked in last place in the snaps/production metric of all qualifiers and is not a big loss.
ONTO SPRING 2018
In the secondary, we're looking at a group that returns Kris Boyd as it's star and a player who'll be on a mission to raise his draft stock to first-round status. If Hill returns, the starters here at corner are rock-solid, of course. No-Fly Zone-like.
In the absence of Hill, Davante Davis becomes the clear option to start spring as the starter opposite Boyd, which certainly brings experience to the table, but also warts. Davis finished the 2017 season leading the team in coverage burns (6), despite only playing 208 snaps which is just over a quarter of the total number of most of the full-time DB starters. Depth at the corners is young and we know that staff is very intrigued with Kobe Boyce who redshirted this season. True freshmen Josh Thompson and Donovan Duvernay were both thrust into minimal action in 2017 (28 and 12 defensive snaps respectively) but both finished the year with negative production, having each allowed one coverage burn on limited snaps. Eric Cuffee, who was hurt for most of 2017, will also factor into two-deep consideration.
At the safeties, Brandon Jones will return following a season that saw him reach the top of TIER THREE in the rankings, but only due to volume. Jones showed some nice things this season and has a sky-high athletic profile upside, but he finished second-to-last in snaps/production and was tied for the team lead in missed tackles. Candidates to fill in opposite Jones would be John Bonney and possibly Chris Brown with Montrell Estell possibly giving some push as depth. The good news here is Texas has a tremendous safety class in tow for 2018 who'll push for jobs sooner than most expect. I'm almost 100% sure we'll see at least one true freshman safety starting in the Texas secondary for extended periods of the 2018 season. At the nickel, PJ Locke is the heir to the job and Chris Brown, as discussed, can provide depth at either the safety or behind Locke at nickel.
Among the LBs, Anthony Wheeler will step immediately in for Malik Jefferson at the MAC and fans can only hope he's more productive in 2018 than he was in 2017 where he saw his job lost completely by the end of the season. Gary Johnson returns at the ROVER as one of Texas' two best returning players. Edwin Freeman, Demarco Boyd and Cameron Townsend will provide depth behind these two. At the outside B-Backer (which may not get near as much run next season now that the staff has found a groove in its dime package which takes this player off the field) Jeffrey McCulloch will enter spring as the starter assuming a healthy return from injury. Marquez Bimage, who did not play on defense but was a special teams contributor in 2017, should provide talented depth and become a possible rotational option in a mostly-McCulloch platoon.
When Texas is in "Lightning," McCulloch would play one of the defensive ends. All of the sudden, he's one of Texas' most important returning players due to the position he plays and his terrific output in limited duty (inexplicably behing Naashon Hughes) in 2017.
Speaking of the ends and the defensive line, there is no doubting that the loss of Poona Ford is a giant one at the nose. There is hope, though, that Chris Nelson can make a junior-to-senior leap that is similar to the one Ford made, going from a middling player on the 2016 unit to a virtually unstoppable force on the 2017 unit. Gerald Wilbon will be a junior and should factor in heavily here as well with depth coming in the form of D'Andre Christmas who'll also be a junior despite only playing 10 snaps on defense in the 2017 season and recording no production. If Christmas is ever going to break out and be the player that it looked like he had the potential to be out of high school in Louisiana, now is absolutely the time to start showing it.
With Nelson the starter at nose, we could see both him and Wilbon in games at the same time when the line wants to give a "heavier"-look, but my feeling is that we'll usually see a big boy in the middle and two more weak-"end"/rush players on the edges. Assuming no Charles Omenihu, it will be Breckyn Hager and Malcolm Roach to start. Clearly, if Omenihu returns, that platoon will certainly have him heavily involved as well. Sophomore Taquon Graham should move from a deep-reserve role to more of a primary one as should Jamari Chisolm who'll be a senior in his second year at Texas out of JUCO. Andrew Fitzgerald may even finally make an appearance and Max Cummins, who redshirted this season, will also be one to keep an eye on.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Here we are, at the end of the regular season, which means the final installment of the defensive market-share rankings.
Nobody wants to hear a recap of what was a bad game from Tom Herman's bad football team to end what was a horribly disappointing season. As usual around these parts, people seem more interested in looking forward to the future. It's a trend that needs to stop in 2018 if Herman doesn't want to find himself on the hot seat. He's been Charlie Strong thus far in what feels like a Groundhog Day nightmare for Texas fans, waking up each morning to Sonny and Cher. Here's hoping Herman is who the fanbase and University thought he was. After one season, it's a disappointment in itself that we don't know if all that's true.
At least we know that you got me, and baby, I got you.
* * *
With this in mind, I'll present the rankings without comment then give my initial thoughts on how the depth chart will probably look coming into spring given the projected departures of key players on the depth chart.
TIER ONE
1) S Deshon Elliott - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 13.03% market share of defensive productivity; 6.57 snaps per production caused (4th) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
2) LB Malik Jefferson - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 11.91% market share of defensive productivity; 7.11 snaps per production caused (6th)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 9.61% market share of defensive productivity; 8.84 snaps per production caused (3rd)
4) NT Poona Ford - 30 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.84% market share of defensive productivity; 6.30 snaps per production caused (2nd)
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.94% market share of defensive productivity; 7.01 snaps per production caused (5th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 26 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.81% market share of defensive productivity; 5.31 snaps per production caused (1st)
7) CB Kris Boyd - 72 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 5.58% market share of defensive productivity; 14.06 snaps per production caused (14th)
TIER THREE
8) S Brandon Jones - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.51% market share of defensive productivity; 17.04 snaps per production caused (20th)
9) DE Malcolm Roach - 61 snaps vs.Tech (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 4.22% market share of defensive productivity; 12.13 snaps per production caused (13th)
10) DE Charles Omenihu - 56 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.92% market share of defensive productivity; 15.10 snaps per production caused (16th)
11) DE Chris Nelson - 43 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.60% market share of defensive productivity; 11.04 snaps per production caused (11th)
12) DB Antwuan Davis - 75 snaps vs. Tech(Previous Rank: T13)
SEASON: 3.35% market share of defensive productivity; 10.14 snaps per production caused (10th)
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
13) LB Anthony Wheeler - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.14% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (15th)
14) S Jason Hall - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T13)
SEASON: 3.08% market share of defensive productivity; 8.04 snaps per production caused (8th)
15) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 2.97% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (19th)
16) DB John Bonney - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 2.65% market share of defensive productivity; 12.06 snaps per production caused (11th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: 1.51% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (7th)
18) CB Davante Davis - 75 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: 1.45% market share of defensive productivity; 15.39 snaps per production caused (17th)
19) LB Naashon Hughes - 5 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 1.42% market share of defensive productivity; 31.92 snaps per production caused (21st)
20) NT Gerald Wilbon - 2 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: 1.02% market share of defensive productivity; 9.16 snaps per production caused (9th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 2 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .7% market share of defensive productivity; 16 snaps per production caused (18th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .32% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .22% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .2% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 3 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 0 snaps vs. Tech (Previous Rank: T26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
***
Congrats to Deshon Elliott on being the most productive player on a Texas defense that was the one shining beacon in an otherwise miserable season.
As things currently stand from all we can project, Texas seems certain to lose at least 3/4 of its "TIER ONE" players on defense and possibly all four of them. You can read my column from yesterday about what I'm hearing from NFL sources, but Elliott seems as good as gone -- as he probably should be. Malik Jefferson has been planning on leaving early for two years now. Poona Ford is, of course, a senior who's out of eligibility. The one hope Texas has out of this group is a return from Holton Hill who might have to sit out the first two games of the 2018 season to finish out his suspension. I think the chances of Hill returning are slightly less than 50%.
Other losses will be much more trivial. In "TIER TWO," Texas only really stands to possibly lose Kris Boyd, who was exploring the option of leaving, but I feel is leaning toward coming back and I'd bet he'll be around in 2018.
In "TIER THREE," Texas will obviously lose senior Antwuan Davis who in most measurable ways has been a better nickel corner than PJ Locke, outproducing Locke's productivity on the season, even having played over 130 fewer snaps. There is also a good chance that Charles Omenihu may be moving on. At this time, whether it's wise or not, I'd put Omenihu's odds of returning on the worse side of a coin flip. While Omenihu is not a great fit for Todd Orlando's 3-4 defense and finished in a very uninspiring 16th place in the snaps/production caused department, he's been a very solid contributor in at least a few aspects. For example, he led the team in QB hits (7).
Among those in the "BACKUP, NO PRODUCTION and NEGATIVE"-levels, Texas loses seniors in Jason Hall (who was playing like a starter in his limited run to end the season) and Naashon Hughes (who was on the exact opposite trajectory after the staff stubbornly stuck by him far too long as a team captain to start the season). Hughes' snaps ticked off in a major way toward the end of the year when the defensive staff finally realized what was obvious to anyone else with eyes. Hughes finished the 2017 season ranked in last place in the snaps/production metric of all qualifiers and is not a big loss.
ONTO SPRING 2018
In the secondary, we're looking at a group that returns Kris Boyd as it's star and a player who'll be on a mission to raise his draft stock to first-round status. If Hill returns, the starters here at corner are rock-solid, of course. No-Fly Zone-like.
In the absence of Hill, Davante Davis becomes the clear option to start spring as the starter opposite Boyd, which certainly brings experience to the table, but also warts. Davis finished the 2017 season leading the team in coverage burns (6), despite only playing 208 snaps which is just over a quarter of the total number of most of the full-time DB starters. Depth at the corners is young and we know that staff is very intrigued with Kobe Boyce who redshirted this season. True freshmen Josh Thompson and Donovan Duvernay were both thrust into minimal action in 2017 (28 and 12 defensive snaps respectively) but both finished the year with negative production, having each allowed one coverage burn on limited snaps. Eric Cuffee, who was hurt for most of 2017, will also factor into two-deep consideration.
At the safeties, Brandon Jones will return following a season that saw him reach the top of TIER THREE in the rankings, but only due to volume. Jones showed some nice things this season and has a sky-high athletic profile upside, but he finished second-to-last in snaps/production and was tied for the team lead in missed tackles. Candidates to fill in opposite Jones would be John Bonney and possibly Chris Brown with Montrell Estell possibly giving some push as depth. The good news here is Texas has a tremendous safety class in tow for 2018 who'll push for jobs sooner than most expect. I'm almost 100% sure we'll see at least one true freshman safety starting in the Texas secondary for extended periods of the 2018 season. At the nickel, PJ Locke is the heir to the job and Chris Brown, as discussed, can provide depth at either the safety or behind Locke at nickel.
Among the LBs, Anthony Wheeler will step immediately in for Malik Jefferson at the MAC and fans can only hope he's more productive in 2018 than he was in 2017 where he saw his job lost completely by the end of the season. Gary Johnson returns at the ROVER as one of Texas' two best returning players. Edwin Freeman, Demarco Boyd and Cameron Townsend will provide depth behind these two. At the outside B-Backer (which may not get near as much run next season now that the staff has found a groove in its dime package which takes this player off the field) Jeffrey McCulloch will enter spring as the starter assuming a healthy return from injury. Marquez Bimage, who did not play on defense but was a special teams contributor in 2017, should provide talented depth and become a possible rotational option in a mostly-McCulloch platoon.
When Texas is in "Lightning," McCulloch would play one of the defensive ends. All of the sudden, he's one of Texas' most important returning players due to the position he plays and his terrific output in limited duty (inexplicably behing Naashon Hughes) in 2017.
Speaking of the ends and the defensive line, there is no doubting that the loss of Poona Ford is a giant one at the nose. There is hope, though, that Chris Nelson can make a junior-to-senior leap that is similar to the one Ford made, going from a middling player on the 2016 unit to a virtually unstoppable force on the 2017 unit. Gerald Wilbon will be a junior and should factor in heavily here as well with depth coming in the form of D'Andre Christmas who'll also be a junior despite only playing 10 snaps on defense in the 2017 season and recording no production. If Christmas is ever going to break out and be the player that it looked like he had the potential to be out of high school in Louisiana, now is absolutely the time to start showing it.
With Nelson the starter at nose, we could see both him and Wilbon in games at the same time when the line wants to give a "heavier"-look, but my feeling is that we'll usually see a big boy in the middle and two more weak-"end"/rush players on the edges. Assuming no Charles Omenihu, it will be Breckyn Hager and Malcolm Roach to start. Clearly, if Omenihu returns, that platoon will certainly have him heavily involved as well. Sophomore Taquon Graham should move from a deep-reserve role to more of a primary one as should Jamari Chisolm who'll be a senior in his second year at Texas out of JUCO. Andrew Fitzgerald may even finally make an appearance and Max Cummins, who redshirted this season, will also be one to keep an eye on.
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