Daily Short #137, February 2nd, 2017: Groundhog Day Chat Column
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
I'll answer your questions here, live from Rudy's, until 9:00am to make a community chat column. When answering the questions, I'll copy and paste them here in the OP to make it an easer-to-read column once the chat has ended. Ask me anything for the next hour. I'll make a note in the thread when the chat portion is over after an hour or so.
This Week in the Short:
Monday - The Calvin Anderson Puzzle
Tuesday - What Happened to D'Andre Christmas?
Wednesday - Around the Board (Ingram vs. Porter + More)
- - -
It's hard to peg down a number of carries or yards because it's honestly hard for any of us to know what the Texas running attack will look like under a new "co-OC-like" OL coach in Herb Hand who will basically serve as a run-game coordinator as well. It's safe to assume that, given the options coming back, that Ingram should be able to bite into at least a 15-25% snap share, with Young and Carter eating up the majority of the 75% balance between the two of them and Porter still mixing in. We know that Stan Drayton is in charge of the RB rotations and for the life of him will not let one RB stay in long enough to get a hot hand. It will be a platoon in which Ingram will be toward the bottom of the pecking order if the rest are healthy barring injuries from the others or a total blowup out of Ingram in camp. But, even with a total blowup in camp, I still don't see Drayton moving away from his running back by committee approach.
Mainly the names being speculated about on the board, to be honest. With that said, Herman and Co. snuck in an Aussie punter during the last signing period without so much as a peep about it beforehand from any media outlet, so I would not count out that they are likely working some under-the-radar angles.
Orange House IMO.
He needs to stay at center most likely. I can understand the hand-wringing over the occasional bad snap in 2017 but let's remember a few things: 1) it wasn't an issue in 2016 which is kind of weird but has to mean something about this not being a chronic disorder and 2) it's selective memory to look back at 2017 and envision Sam and Shane running for their lives on every snap in shotgun to field wildly misdirected snaps over and over. It happened often enough to notice, but it seems to be remembered like a once-a-possession phenomenon, which it wasn't. He's going to be fine, plus outside of Rodriguez, there really aren't any options you feel that good about moving to center to take his place. If Rodriguez did move to center, you'd likely have Shack fighting with Hudson to hold on to a starting spot at RG. It's more optimal to bank on continued improvement from Shack at C and let the battle at RG (assuming Texas lands Anderson) to include Rodriguez, Hudson and possibly Grandy.
I played defensive end in high school but actually got my (minimal) college offers/interest as a guard. Most people don't realize that in high school, you practice every day at both an offensive and a defensive position (at least we did). I watched a ton of tape on offensive lines in our film room and even after high school, some of the coaches in my family are line coaches who I'd watch film with, etc. Then, at my old job at Bleacher Report, I developed my grading system for OL based on one I learned at a scouting clinic. After doing that for two years to project the rounds the rookie OL would be drafted in (about 70 a year), I just started doing it here at this job for the Texas OL. Every season of doing the work since 2013 here for the Horns, I learn new things about the art of the OL, thanks mainly to the rapid turnover in OL coaches recently. With each new arrival, I'm always forced to do a bunch of research to figure out the methods behind new wrinkles and stuff I've never seen before. Add all this up and it has just kind of randomly led to a scenario where the position I'm best at evaluating and understanding is probably offensive line.
I'd put the chances of landing one of those two guys at 27.5% just because I think Waddle is a total wild card at this point but conventional wisdom says SEC. Waddle is sick. I'm not as tuned into Keys, but from what Jason has said behind the scenes, he's not out of play but probably a little bit of a longshot. Waddle is a sick freak, btw - he's going to be good no matter where he ends up. As for Moore, he's a great player himself. I'm sure he could play slot if necessary but I don' think it would be wise to pigeonhole him as solely a slot guy. That certainly doesn't encapsulate many of the key aspects of his game.
You can see my post above about this, but barring a camp explosion from Ingram, and given Drayton's predictable RBBC utilization of his RB corps, I don't see it as being realistic (provided the rest are healthy) to project Ingram for much more than a 25% snap share as a true freshman.
That's a @Suchomel question. I don't stock these guys' every move.
With some semblance of QB stability and depth coming into focus for 2018 there shouldn't be much of an excuse. Drew Mehringer needs to do a better job in 2018.
I'm not super-high on him after Senior Bowl week. Generally guys like that seem to show up a few times and make you take notice during those three days of practices like Jimmy G. did back at his Senior Bowl or even like a Jacoby Brissett. Of the non-Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen QBs in Mobile, I might like Mike White the best.
Very smart man to be sniffing around this situation. Now is most certainly the time to strike. We're going to see a mega-dropoff with talent in dynasty this season around pick 2.05 in 12 team leagues so if you can acquire Davis for somewhere in that range, it's clearly highway robbery. It might be hard considering your trade partner likely used a Top 5 pick on him last season. Even if you can't get him on the super-cheap like that, I'm personally poking around deals where maybe I could get some kind of discount based on his disappointing rookie season. Matt Lafleur will help Mariota immensely and when that happens, look out for Corey Davis as he and Taywan Taylor are the undoubted future of that WR room and Davis is a sick beast who'll actually enter the season healthy in 2018 (barring unforeseen offseason injury, fingers crossed).
I've heard mostly about the young DBs fitting right in so I'd assume that's Foster and Sterns. Think we'll start getting more information from conditioning once recruiting for 2018 winds down. Lots of people all over the place right now.
If they don't acquire Kirk Cousins, I think they should and will draft Baker Mayfield. If they do acquire Cousins, I think Elway will try to trade back and look to get more OL help later in Round 1. Nelson, Williams, McGlinchey, Brown, Okorafor, Hernandez, Wynn, etc. Keep bolstering that thing after taking Bolles last year. If Cousins is acquired, that will mean one or maybe both Demaryius and Sanders are gone, so it will be a good year with a deep WR crop that doesn't have much buzz at the top to find some guys through the middle rounds. As for the kickers, I have no idea. That's like a whole different sport.
Yes, especially with the public, for some reason, seeming to be pounding the Eagles. Also, a few prop bets I like:
- NO overtime
- Agholor OVER 3.5 receptions
- Collinsworth mentions Pro Football Focus OVER two times
- "No Gatorade Bath" for the Gatorade color
- UNDER 12.5 penalties
That will end the chat, folks, thanks for everyone who pitched in and helped me write the column this week. Assuming I'm not too hungover, we'll see everyone back here in the Short on for a post-Super Bowl, signing-day week, Monday edition. Enjoy your football and families this weekend.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
I'll answer your questions here, live from Rudy's, until 9:00am to make a community chat column. When answering the questions, I'll copy and paste them here in the OP to make it an easer-to-read column once the chat has ended. Ask me anything for the next hour. I'll make a note in the thread when the chat portion is over after an hour or so.
This Week in the Short:
Monday - The Calvin Anderson Puzzle
Tuesday - What Happened to D'Andre Christmas?
Wednesday - Around the Board (Ingram vs. Porter + More)
- - -
It's hard to peg down a number of carries or yards because it's honestly hard for any of us to know what the Texas running attack will look like under a new "co-OC-like" OL coach in Herb Hand who will basically serve as a run-game coordinator as well. It's safe to assume that, given the options coming back, that Ingram should be able to bite into at least a 15-25% snap share, with Young and Carter eating up the majority of the 75% balance between the two of them and Porter still mixing in. We know that Stan Drayton is in charge of the RB rotations and for the life of him will not let one RB stay in long enough to get a hot hand. It will be a platoon in which Ingram will be toward the bottom of the pecking order if the rest are healthy barring injuries from the others or a total blowup out of Ingram in camp. But, even with a total blowup in camp, I still don't see Drayton moving away from his running back by committee approach.
Mainly the names being speculated about on the board, to be honest. With that said, Herman and Co. snuck in an Aussie punter during the last signing period without so much as a peep about it beforehand from any media outlet, so I would not count out that they are likely working some under-the-radar angles.
Orange House IMO.
He needs to stay at center most likely. I can understand the hand-wringing over the occasional bad snap in 2017 but let's remember a few things: 1) it wasn't an issue in 2016 which is kind of weird but has to mean something about this not being a chronic disorder and 2) it's selective memory to look back at 2017 and envision Sam and Shane running for their lives on every snap in shotgun to field wildly misdirected snaps over and over. It happened often enough to notice, but it seems to be remembered like a once-a-possession phenomenon, which it wasn't. He's going to be fine, plus outside of Rodriguez, there really aren't any options you feel that good about moving to center to take his place. If Rodriguez did move to center, you'd likely have Shack fighting with Hudson to hold on to a starting spot at RG. It's more optimal to bank on continued improvement from Shack at C and let the battle at RG (assuming Texas lands Anderson) to include Rodriguez, Hudson and possibly Grandy.
I played defensive end in high school but actually got my (minimal) college offers/interest as a guard. Most people don't realize that in high school, you practice every day at both an offensive and a defensive position (at least we did). I watched a ton of tape on offensive lines in our film room and even after high school, some of the coaches in my family are line coaches who I'd watch film with, etc. Then, at my old job at Bleacher Report, I developed my grading system for OL based on one I learned at a scouting clinic. After doing that for two years to project the rounds the rookie OL would be drafted in (about 70 a year), I just started doing it here at this job for the Texas OL. Every season of doing the work since 2013 here for the Horns, I learn new things about the art of the OL, thanks mainly to the rapid turnover in OL coaches recently. With each new arrival, I'm always forced to do a bunch of research to figure out the methods behind new wrinkles and stuff I've never seen before. Add all this up and it has just kind of randomly led to a scenario where the position I'm best at evaluating and understanding is probably offensive line.
I'd put the chances of landing one of those two guys at 27.5% just because I think Waddle is a total wild card at this point but conventional wisdom says SEC. Waddle is sick. I'm not as tuned into Keys, but from what Jason has said behind the scenes, he's not out of play but probably a little bit of a longshot. Waddle is a sick freak, btw - he's going to be good no matter where he ends up. As for Moore, he's a great player himself. I'm sure he could play slot if necessary but I don' think it would be wise to pigeonhole him as solely a slot guy. That certainly doesn't encapsulate many of the key aspects of his game.
You can see my post above about this, but barring a camp explosion from Ingram, and given Drayton's predictable RBBC utilization of his RB corps, I don't see it as being realistic (provided the rest are healthy) to project Ingram for much more than a 25% snap share as a true freshman.
That's a @Suchomel question. I don't stock these guys' every move.
With some semblance of QB stability and depth coming into focus for 2018 there shouldn't be much of an excuse. Drew Mehringer needs to do a better job in 2018.
I'm not super-high on him after Senior Bowl week. Generally guys like that seem to show up a few times and make you take notice during those three days of practices like Jimmy G. did back at his Senior Bowl or even like a Jacoby Brissett. Of the non-Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen QBs in Mobile, I might like Mike White the best.
Very smart man to be sniffing around this situation. Now is most certainly the time to strike. We're going to see a mega-dropoff with talent in dynasty this season around pick 2.05 in 12 team leagues so if you can acquire Davis for somewhere in that range, it's clearly highway robbery. It might be hard considering your trade partner likely used a Top 5 pick on him last season. Even if you can't get him on the super-cheap like that, I'm personally poking around deals where maybe I could get some kind of discount based on his disappointing rookie season. Matt Lafleur will help Mariota immensely and when that happens, look out for Corey Davis as he and Taywan Taylor are the undoubted future of that WR room and Davis is a sick beast who'll actually enter the season healthy in 2018 (barring unforeseen offseason injury, fingers crossed).
I've heard mostly about the young DBs fitting right in so I'd assume that's Foster and Sterns. Think we'll start getting more information from conditioning once recruiting for 2018 winds down. Lots of people all over the place right now.
If they don't acquire Kirk Cousins, I think they should and will draft Baker Mayfield. If they do acquire Cousins, I think Elway will try to trade back and look to get more OL help later in Round 1. Nelson, Williams, McGlinchey, Brown, Okorafor, Hernandez, Wynn, etc. Keep bolstering that thing after taking Bolles last year. If Cousins is acquired, that will mean one or maybe both Demaryius and Sanders are gone, so it will be a good year with a deep WR crop that doesn't have much buzz at the top to find some guys through the middle rounds. As for the kickers, I have no idea. That's like a whole different sport.
Yes, especially with the public, for some reason, seeming to be pounding the Eagles. Also, a few prop bets I like:
- NO overtime
- Agholor OVER 3.5 receptions
- Collinsworth mentions Pro Football Focus OVER two times
- "No Gatorade Bath" for the Gatorade color
- UNDER 12.5 penalties
That will end the chat, folks, thanks for everyone who pitched in and helped me write the column this week. Assuming I'm not too hungover, we'll see everyone back here in the Short on for a post-Super Bowl, signing-day week, Monday edition. Enjoy your football and families this weekend.
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