Daily Short #119, December 26th, 2017: Texas Better Off At Offensive Line versus Mizzou
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The question of who will start at left tackle in the Texas Bowl was answered by Tom Herman at his pre-bowl-game availability when he informed the media that junior Elijah Rodriguez would re-enter the lineup in that spot. Rodriguez is not necessarily a proven option, but as we'll see, it's not going to be hard to represent a huge improvement over there at the left tackle from what Texas has seen during the 2017 season up to this point. A virtually impossible scenario to imagine in the preseason.
As everyone remembers, Rodriguez was all but anointed as the 2017 starter at right tackle during fall camp before falling prey to a high-ankle sprain during a rare 11-on-11 period of practice open to the media. It was basically the last availability of the season, and I still think that media would not have been shut out of camp as early in August had Rodriguez not gotten hurt that day in front of everyone. As we were shooed out while trainers attended to him, the injury seemed more serious than just a high-ankle -- but as things turned out, it was a pretty damn bad high-ankle. Bad enough to require surgery at least.
I've written about it in this column before, but it's easy to tell how the coaching staff feels about Rodriguez through the way Tom Herman constantly reminds the world of his loss. There have been so many instances over the course of the last year, when Herman has had to make excuses for a bad on-field offensive product, where he's pointed to the losses of key starters and Rodriguez is always one of the first names mentioned. And in Herman's defense, Rodriguez looked a lot better in fall camp during the 2017 season than he'd ever looked before. Not that it was much of an accomplishment to look better than he had previously.
In 222 snaps during the 2016 season in backup duty across multiple positions (Rodriguez is the only player on the current offensive line who has logged either real-game or spring game snaps at every position along the offensive line) Rodriguez was certainly considered a liability. Of the nine offensive linemen that season who logged at least 99 snaps, only two members of the OL allowed disruption more frequently on a per-snap basis. Rodriguez allowed either a QB sack, hit, pressure, TFL, run-stuff, or committed a penalty once every 20.2 snaps. Then-freshman Zach Shackelford fell just behind him at 20.1 while now-graduating, then-junior Tristan Nickelson was at the bottom of the standings at 12.7. To put the Shackelford/Rodriguez-area of the snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused-spectrum in context, guys who you likely remember as playing very badly at times in 2016 like Kent Perkins, Patrick Vahe and Brandon Hodges all at least landed in the 30-to-31-range.
Rodriguez, on the third-fewest snaps among the nine qualifiers, allowed 4 sacks which was tied for the second-most of the whole group behind Brandon Hodges (5). Still, in the three games in which he played enough snaps to qualify for a grade from the Deep Dig (UTEP in Week 2, WVU in Week 9 and Kansas in Week 10), Rodriguez graded out at a slightly above-average level by average and median. The only game where performed unacceptably was the UTEP game for some reason, which is odd as games like that are usually the type that can pad season-averages. The best game of his career was one where he graded out at a totally acceptable and #actuallygood (or at least pretty good) 77.56 against West Virginia.
So, if we look at what Texas has been forced to trot out at left tackle during the 2017 season in games where Connor Williams has been out (as he will be while skipping the Texas Bowl), we see that even "Bad Elijah Rodriguez" from 2016 is a better option. If you combine the 2017 snaps of the two players who saw the most action at the position (839 total offensive snaps - Denzel Okafor and Tristan Nickelson) you see that things are looking up.
The combination of Okafor and Nickelson allowed disruption or committed a penalty once every 15.5 snaps. The combined duo allowed for 45% of the line's allowed sacks (!!!), 37.9% of its QB hits, 27.5% of its QB pressures, only 13% of its run-stuffs and 15% of its TFLs, but committed 24.2% of its penalties. In all, 26.9% percent of the line's total disruption was allowed and/or caused by one of these two players who have a combined total of snaps approximately equal to one full-time starter on the season. When you consider that there are five players on the offensive line, you realize that if things were equal, each position should contribute 20% of the "badness".
What makes Okafor and Nickelson's contributions seem even less helpful is that this elevated level of disruption (relatively) came compared against players like Derek Kerstetter who was thrown into the fire as a freshman not ready for the spotlight, a regressing Jake McMillon, a shaky combination at center including a hobbled Zach Shackelford and a very underwhelming Terrell Cuney and capped off with an overall disappointing left guard rotation as Patrick Vahe remained off-and-on while healthy and was actually sidelined for the final two games of the season.
Without even taking Rodriguez' progression from his sophomore to junior seasons into account, Texas is still better off heading into the Texas Bowl with him at left tackle. If he indeed has made the strides the staff feels he has (and there is some merit to these claims as Rodriguez did appear improved this August while healthy), then you could actually make the case that Texas is a lot better off Wednesday OL-wise than it has been in any game this season not featuring Connor Williams.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
The question of who will start at left tackle in the Texas Bowl was answered by Tom Herman at his pre-bowl-game availability when he informed the media that junior Elijah Rodriguez would re-enter the lineup in that spot. Rodriguez is not necessarily a proven option, but as we'll see, it's not going to be hard to represent a huge improvement over there at the left tackle from what Texas has seen during the 2017 season up to this point. A virtually impossible scenario to imagine in the preseason.
As everyone remembers, Rodriguez was all but anointed as the 2017 starter at right tackle during fall camp before falling prey to a high-ankle sprain during a rare 11-on-11 period of practice open to the media. It was basically the last availability of the season, and I still think that media would not have been shut out of camp as early in August had Rodriguez not gotten hurt that day in front of everyone. As we were shooed out while trainers attended to him, the injury seemed more serious than just a high-ankle -- but as things turned out, it was a pretty damn bad high-ankle. Bad enough to require surgery at least.
I've written about it in this column before, but it's easy to tell how the coaching staff feels about Rodriguez through the way Tom Herman constantly reminds the world of his loss. There have been so many instances over the course of the last year, when Herman has had to make excuses for a bad on-field offensive product, where he's pointed to the losses of key starters and Rodriguez is always one of the first names mentioned. And in Herman's defense, Rodriguez looked a lot better in fall camp during the 2017 season than he'd ever looked before. Not that it was much of an accomplishment to look better than he had previously.
In 222 snaps during the 2016 season in backup duty across multiple positions (Rodriguez is the only player on the current offensive line who has logged either real-game or spring game snaps at every position along the offensive line) Rodriguez was certainly considered a liability. Of the nine offensive linemen that season who logged at least 99 snaps, only two members of the OL allowed disruption more frequently on a per-snap basis. Rodriguez allowed either a QB sack, hit, pressure, TFL, run-stuff, or committed a penalty once every 20.2 snaps. Then-freshman Zach Shackelford fell just behind him at 20.1 while now-graduating, then-junior Tristan Nickelson was at the bottom of the standings at 12.7. To put the Shackelford/Rodriguez-area of the snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused-spectrum in context, guys who you likely remember as playing very badly at times in 2016 like Kent Perkins, Patrick Vahe and Brandon Hodges all at least landed in the 30-to-31-range.
Rodriguez, on the third-fewest snaps among the nine qualifiers, allowed 4 sacks which was tied for the second-most of the whole group behind Brandon Hodges (5). Still, in the three games in which he played enough snaps to qualify for a grade from the Deep Dig (UTEP in Week 2, WVU in Week 9 and Kansas in Week 10), Rodriguez graded out at a slightly above-average level by average and median. The only game where performed unacceptably was the UTEP game for some reason, which is odd as games like that are usually the type that can pad season-averages. The best game of his career was one where he graded out at a totally acceptable and #actuallygood (or at least pretty good) 77.56 against West Virginia.
So, if we look at what Texas has been forced to trot out at left tackle during the 2017 season in games where Connor Williams has been out (as he will be while skipping the Texas Bowl), we see that even "Bad Elijah Rodriguez" from 2016 is a better option. If you combine the 2017 snaps of the two players who saw the most action at the position (839 total offensive snaps - Denzel Okafor and Tristan Nickelson) you see that things are looking up.
The combination of Okafor and Nickelson allowed disruption or committed a penalty once every 15.5 snaps. The combined duo allowed for 45% of the line's allowed sacks (!!!), 37.9% of its QB hits, 27.5% of its QB pressures, only 13% of its run-stuffs and 15% of its TFLs, but committed 24.2% of its penalties. In all, 26.9% percent of the line's total disruption was allowed and/or caused by one of these two players who have a combined total of snaps approximately equal to one full-time starter on the season. When you consider that there are five players on the offensive line, you realize that if things were equal, each position should contribute 20% of the "badness".
What makes Okafor and Nickelson's contributions seem even less helpful is that this elevated level of disruption (relatively) came compared against players like Derek Kerstetter who was thrown into the fire as a freshman not ready for the spotlight, a regressing Jake McMillon, a shaky combination at center including a hobbled Zach Shackelford and a very underwhelming Terrell Cuney and capped off with an overall disappointing left guard rotation as Patrick Vahe remained off-and-on while healthy and was actually sidelined for the final two games of the season.
Without even taking Rodriguez' progression from his sophomore to junior seasons into account, Texas is still better off heading into the Texas Bowl with him at left tackle. If he indeed has made the strides the staff feels he has (and there is some merit to these claims as Rodriguez did appear improved this August while healthy), then you could actually make the case that Texas is a lot better off Wednesday OL-wise than it has been in any game this season not featuring Connor Williams.
