Daily Short #160, April 2nd, 2018: The 2018 Texas Offensive Line vs. History
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Over the weekend, I did an experiment that you may find eyebrow-raising. I certainly did.
Amid all the optimism about new OL coach Herb Hand -- and the seeming "return to fundamentals" he's bringing to what has been a porous and soft offensive line at Texas for the better part of the last decade -- there have been many dissenters on the forums who've said they are not falling once again for the old banana-in-the-tailpipe when it comes to sun-shiny spring accolades.
Is such trepidation warranted?
I've been doing the Deep Dig grades on the offensive line for six years, but have only had organized, standard forms for recording the data going back to the 2015 season. However, in piecing together the information from each column going back to the 2013 season, I was able to attain these things for each OL at Texas who had played at least 100 snaps during the season:
1) number of snaps played on the season
2) snaps per disruption (sack, QB hit, QB pressure, TFL, run-stuff) allowed or penalty commited
3) average Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
4) median Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
What I did next is take this information and put it in a spreadsheet where I assigned the following values to each input to create a cumulative weighted "score." Its makeup is ultimately arbitrary in its allocation of transformed weighted measures - BUT - it seems sensible in assigning aggregate levels of "importance" to the following statistics:
1) number of snaps played on the season
20% of overall score - while sheer number of snaps doesn't say a damn thing about how well you played on those snaps, it does show that you were likely the best option available (given the sometimes-faulty assumption of rational coaching in college football, we can't know that for sure, but we can assume it).
2) snaps per disruption (sack, QB hit, QB pressure, TFL, run-stuff) allowed or penalty committed
50% of overall score - the most important number I calculate yearly, so it needed to be weighted as such, however, it's important to also include the nuanced perspective that comes with the actual cumulative grades of each snap played.
3) average Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
15% of overall score
4) median Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
15% of overall score
When adding these four inputs together, the final sum is the SCORE, by which the sheet below is sorted. In essence, it should rank the best overall seasons (all things considered when weighting these inputs as described) by Texas offensive linemen. At least those who logged over 100 snaps on offense during the regular season dating back to 2013.
The players who have logged at least 100 snaps in any given season and will return in 2018 are highlighted in orange.
Click Image to enlarge
I'll allow the anatomy of the list to be presented without comment to its general makeup pertaining to 2018, but I have a few general observations about it otherwise.
- Calvin Anderson's 2017 season, I'm willing to bet, would be atop these rankings. He was a Top 20 pass protection-grade guy in 2017 if you listen to PFF. The top grade on this chart is from a guy who was playing his first season at Texas, after all.
- The top three in these rankings either have or will all earn multiple NFL paychecks in their careers.
- I was so scarred by his senior season that I forgot Taylor Doyle once had a damn good year as a junior. He deserves some damn respect.
- Jake McMillon regressed from his sophomore to junior year (common theme in 2017 it appears - it's a good thing that Texas reassigned Derek Warehime), but he'd be welcome as a returner having turned in two of the best seasons of the last five years.
- The only reason Connor Williams' junior/final season didn't rank higher was not only because of the lack of snaps, but also due to snaps/dis allowed and/or penalty caused.
- People who remember Dom Espinosa as being a sneaky effective and really good college center despite physical shortcomings for the NFL game are right.
- Zach Shackelford made marked improvement from 2017 to 2018 whereas Patrick Vahe digressed. However, Vahe did make a nice jump from Year 1 to Year 2, as is the case with Shackelford.
- If it weren't for the holding penalties and the easily correctable pressures allowed by Derek Kerstetter, his 2017 season would rank much higher. In fact, when you look at his median grade, it's near the top at fifth overall.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Support the Short by supporting our sponsor - Give Wendy a call today!
Over the weekend, I did an experiment that you may find eyebrow-raising. I certainly did.
Amid all the optimism about new OL coach Herb Hand -- and the seeming "return to fundamentals" he's bringing to what has been a porous and soft offensive line at Texas for the better part of the last decade -- there have been many dissenters on the forums who've said they are not falling once again for the old banana-in-the-tailpipe when it comes to sun-shiny spring accolades.
Is such trepidation warranted?
I've been doing the Deep Dig grades on the offensive line for six years, but have only had organized, standard forms for recording the data going back to the 2015 season. However, in piecing together the information from each column going back to the 2013 season, I was able to attain these things for each OL at Texas who had played at least 100 snaps during the season:
1) number of snaps played on the season
2) snaps per disruption (sack, QB hit, QB pressure, TFL, run-stuff) allowed or penalty commited
3) average Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
4) median Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
What I did next is take this information and put it in a spreadsheet where I assigned the following values to each input to create a cumulative weighted "score." Its makeup is ultimately arbitrary in its allocation of transformed weighted measures - BUT - it seems sensible in assigning aggregate levels of "importance" to the following statistics:
1) number of snaps played on the season
20% of overall score - while sheer number of snaps doesn't say a damn thing about how well you played on those snaps, it does show that you were likely the best option available (given the sometimes-faulty assumption of rational coaching in college football, we can't know that for sure, but we can assume it).
2) snaps per disruption (sack, QB hit, QB pressure, TFL, run-stuff) allowed or penalty committed
50% of overall score - the most important number I calculate yearly, so it needed to be weighted as such, however, it's important to also include the nuanced perspective that comes with the actual cumulative grades of each snap played.
3) average Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
15% of overall score
4) median Deep Dig scouting grade (season)
15% of overall score
When adding these four inputs together, the final sum is the SCORE, by which the sheet below is sorted. In essence, it should rank the best overall seasons (all things considered when weighting these inputs as described) by Texas offensive linemen. At least those who logged over 100 snaps on offense during the regular season dating back to 2013.
The players who have logged at least 100 snaps in any given season and will return in 2018 are highlighted in orange.
Click Image to enlarge
I'll allow the anatomy of the list to be presented without comment to its general makeup pertaining to 2018, but I have a few general observations about it otherwise.
- Calvin Anderson's 2017 season, I'm willing to bet, would be atop these rankings. He was a Top 20 pass protection-grade guy in 2017 if you listen to PFF. The top grade on this chart is from a guy who was playing his first season at Texas, after all.
- The top three in these rankings either have or will all earn multiple NFL paychecks in their careers.
- I was so scarred by his senior season that I forgot Taylor Doyle once had a damn good year as a junior. He deserves some damn respect.
- Jake McMillon regressed from his sophomore to junior year (common theme in 2017 it appears - it's a good thing that Texas reassigned Derek Warehime), but he'd be welcome as a returner having turned in two of the best seasons of the last five years.
- The only reason Connor Williams' junior/final season didn't rank higher was not only because of the lack of snaps, but also due to snaps/dis allowed and/or penalty caused.
- People who remember Dom Espinosa as being a sneaky effective and really good college center despite physical shortcomings for the NFL game are right.
- Zach Shackelford made marked improvement from 2017 to 2018 whereas Patrick Vahe digressed. However, Vahe did make a nice jump from Year 1 to Year 2, as is the case with Shackelford.
- If it weren't for the holding penalties and the easily correctable pressures allowed by Derek Kerstetter, his 2017 season would rank much higher. In fact, when you look at his median grade, it's near the top at fifth overall.
