Based on the typical patterns of the data examined, The Deep Dig officially proclaims that these Division I college football coaches will almost certainly be fired in the near-future, most likely immediately after (or during) the 2015 season:
Al Golden, Miami
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Curtis Johnson, Tulane
Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
Larry Fedora, UNC
Mike Leach, Washington St.
Norm Chow, Hawaii
Randy Edsall, Maryland
Mike London, Virginia
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe
If Texas HC Charlie Strong hopes to avoid being mentioned on a similar list in his own near-future, he has to win at least seven games at Texas in 2015. Recent history says that any number south of seven in Strong's case leads to near-imminent arrival of the hot seat. And no one wants the hot seat. We’re going to tell you exactly why.
It’s been a long few days of very busy, very balmy work. We’d recommend allergen masks as you descend the creaky steps for this edition - recent rains have the molds and God knows what else kicking up.
It’s a trip to our dark basement sure to make even the coolest of customers sweat a little.
We welcome you back to …
The Deep Dig
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
Before we get started, here is a link to the full spreadsheet.
We’ve examined all 170 Division I coaching hires that were made from 2005 to 2012 in an attempt to better understand - and in some ways quantify - the abstract idea of the hot seat. The goal is to identify the circumstances that lead to both finding and avoiding it.
On how the data was gathered and organized:
- Each Division I coaching hire during the span was chronicled from the time of its start to its eventual end or the present - whichever was applicable.
- Each hire was categorized as either an offensive or defensive hire based on the head coach’s philosophical football background.
- Each year of each tenure is chronicled by W-L record within the horizontal cells leading to present day or date of tenure's last service. The cells are highlighted to note these six events, as are the coaches' name cells in the "TOTAL" tab.
RED: FIRED - the red cells indicate that the head-coaching tenure was ended due to firing in the corresponding year. If a red cell is not preceded by a pink cell, it means that the coach’s seat did not become hot as detected by the Deep Dig until the year he was fired.
PINK: ON THE HOT SEAT - the pink cells indicate that the given year within the tenure was either spent in, or led to, hot-seat status. This abstract variable was assigned via research on every tenure examined. Typical events that led to “hot seat”-assignment were items such as,
- public responses from athletic directors or other university figureheads asserting the coach in question would indeed be back next season.
- multiple appearances in the annually popular national content pieces and lists identifying the coming season’s hot-seat candidates.
- multiple mentions from local media in news clippings using terms like “hot seat,” “feeling the pressure,” “needs to win this year,” or similar terms within these contexts.
- reports from local media that important program stakeholders had lost faith in the coach.
- other obvious, reasonable indicators of discord within the tenure.
BLUE: SUCCESSFUL AND STILL IN GOOD STANDING - the blue cells indicate the type of hire every university wants to make, a successful, sustaining presence who has stuck around so far.
GREEN: SUCCESSFUL AND HIRED AWAY - the green cells indicate that the given year of the tenure marked the coach’s last as he was hired away for a better job.
WHITE: OVERCAME THE HOT SEAT TO GOOD STANDING - the uncolored cells featuring coaches’ names in the “TOTAL” tab are very rare and indicate that a coach has overcome hot-seat status and returned to good standing.
BLACK: PERSONAL/HEALTH - the black cells indicate that the coaching tenure was ended due to personal and/or health circumstances.
The hot seat doesn’t really cool back down
Image via Desert News
It’s a ridiculous rarity. This "study" is as much about sports society as it is football - thanks to the nature of the hot seat and its use as a variable. The reason why is that the hot seat is created, inherently, by forces outside of the actual football program. Fans, media, donors and other stakeholders of varying levels surrounding the program are the creators of the hot seat - coaches certainly don’t do it to themselves.
And even still, the “hot seat” as defined here leads to a firing. The cells in the graph show, in virtually every case, that once they go pink, they go red - and quickly. In fact, only three coaches out of 170 total tenures have overcome some form of hot-seat status to continue coaching at the school in a current non-hot-seat setting: Troy Calhoun of Air Force, Rick Stocksill of Middle Tennessee State and Kyle Whittingham of Utah.
Charlie Strong is a defensive head coach
Defensive head-coaching hires have not recently been as frequent - or successful as offensive hires.
The number defensive head-coaching hires made over the span (56) is less than half that of offensive hires (114) and the info-graph below shows that the offensive hires have panned out better. The red and pink areas in the graph take up much more space in the defensive sample, while the blues and greens are more frequent in the much-larger offensive sample.
If you’re going to get fired, the seat heats up alarming early - especially for offensive head coaches.
The average amount of “time until hot seat” that passed for defensive head coaches in the sample (who were fired or are currently on the hot seat) is 2.55 years.
The average amount of “time until hot seat” that passed for offensive head coaches in the sample (who were fired or are currently on the hot seat) is 1.69 years.
Charlie Strong was a successful defensive head coach hired away for a better job
Successful defensive head coaches hired away for better jobs over the period examined have not been as successful as offensive coaches who’ve had the same opportunity.
Since 2005, these defensive head coaches started and completed successful tenures at smaller programs, and were hired away for better jobs:
Charlie Strong, Louisville - Now at Texas, was 6-7 in 2014, a disappointing first season.
Al Golden, Bowling Green - Now on the hot seat in Miami following Year 4.
Brady Hoke, San Diego State - Fired as Michigan HC after four seasons; was on the hot seat after Year 3.
Gene Chizik, Iowa State - Fired as Auburn HC following Year 4; hot seat developed during final season.
Brian Kelly, Cincinnati - Now in the “blue group” as becoming successful in good standing at Notre Dame.
Tim Beckman, Toledo - Now on the hot seat at Illinois (into and) following Year 3.
Gary Andersen, Utah State - Now at Oregon State after trending toward being a “blue group” successful coach in good standing after two seasons at Wisconsin.
Dave Doeren, Northern Illinois - Now at NC State, improved from a bad 3-9 first-season with eight wins in 2014.
Mike Macintyre, San Jose State - Now at Colorado, a prime candidate for Year 3 hot-seat status in 2015 having won only six games total in two seasons.
Willie Taggart, Western Kentucky - Now at USF, another prime candidate for Year 3 hot-seat status after his own pathetic six total wins.
Bret Bielema - Wisconsin - Now at Arkansas and the jury is still very much out regarding his long-term prospects after going 3-9 and 7-6 in his first two seasons.
(Alabama’s Nick Saban would clearly be a notable positive addition to this list as a defensive head coach who has had success, but his tenure at Bama began in 2005 which was the first year of the study.)
Charlie Strong won only six games in his first season
Less than half the coaches who won six games or less in their first season (at schools comparable to Texas) have gone on to sustainable success when compared to those who won more than six games.
Coaches who have gone on to sustaining, successful tenures over the period examined with equal-to or less than six wins in Year 1 are (16 total tenures - programs comparable to Texas are bolded):
Terry Bowden, Akron - 1 win
David Bailiff, Rice - 3 wins
Jerry Kill, Minnesota - 3 wins
Art Briles, Baylor - 4 wins
Dabo Swinney, Clemson - 4 wins
David Cutcliffe, Duke - 4 wins
Frank Solich, Ohio - 4 wins
Justin Fuente - Memphis - 4 wins
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State - 4 wins
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern - 4 wins
Dan McCarney, North Texas - 5 wins
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State - 5 wins
Doc Holliday, Marshall - 5 wins
Bill Snyder, Kansas State (second tenure) - 6 wins
Ruffin McNeil, ECU - 6 wins
Pete Lembo, Ball State - 6 wins
Coaches who have gone on to sustaining, successful tenures over the period examined with more than six wins in their first season are (20 total tenures - programs comparable to Texas are bolded): Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss), Nick Saban (Alabama), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Steve Spurrier (South Carolina), Brian Kelly (Notre Dame), Ken Niumatalolo (Navy), Rich Rodriguez (Arizona), Rocky Long (San Diego State), Todd Graham (Arizona State), Jim Mora (UCLA), Kyle Flood (Rutgers), Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette), Matt Campbell (Toledo), Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech), Tim DeRuyter (Fresno State), Jimbo Fisher (Florida State), David Shaw (Stanford), Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M), Les Miles (LSU) and Urban Meyer (Ohio State).
That’s 16 coaches at schools similar to Texas who’ve gone on to become successful when winning more games in their respective first seasons than Charlie Strong did in 2014 and only seven who’ve done the same after winning an equal amount or less of games.
Of all coaching tenures over the period examined, here is a pie-graph illustration of the eventual fates of every head coach who registered less than six wins in his first season.
Charlie Strong won two less games in his first season than his fired predecessor
Only two of the 35 coaches now flourishing successfully and sustainably within the tenures examined posted win totals two or more games worse than the previously fired coach.
These two coaches are Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern, -3) and Doc Holliday (Marshall, -2).
David Bailiff (Rice, -4), Ruffin McNeil (ECU, -3) and Mike Gundy (Oklahoma St., - 3) are the only other successful, sustaining coaches who posted a win total two or more fewer than their immediate predecessors. These three followed winning coaches who were hired away as opposed to lame ducks.
This pie-graph represents the fates of the total sample of coaches who posted two or fewer wins in their first season than their predecessors, regardless if the predecessor was fired or hired away.
In stark contrast, this pie-graph represents the fates of the total sample of coaches who posted win totals in their first season greater-than or equal-to their predecessors, regardless if the predecessor was fired or hired away.
CONCLUSION: Recent History Says Charlie Strong Needs At Least 7 Wins in 2015 to Avoid the Hot Seat
Many of these early findings are not positive regarding a projection of Strong’s career-arc at Texas between the low Year 1 win total, a decrease in wins from a fired predecessor, a lack of defensive head coaches succeeding in similar circumstances and the relative lack of defensive head coaches in the current college football landscape who’ve become sustaining, successful presences when compared to those with offensive backgrounds.
The data here shows that, if history is any indication, Charlie Strong will come into Year 3 of his coaching tenure at Texas on (or soon-to-be on) the hot seat if he wins six games or less in 2015 based on two-year win totals.
With a seven-to-eight win season, the projection changes dramatically - and projections for success, of course, should only go up with additional wins from there. As an example, here’s what can be expected with a a 9-10 win Year 2 based on two-year win totals.
Furthermore, at a University like Texas, which is a premiere destination, the “green” section of the pies should be seen as simply additional “blue” - this is because it isn’t often that a coach gets hired away to a better situation from a premiere destination. The vast majority of success at Texas should be viewed as sustaining, an advantage it has over places like Cincinnati, Bowling Green or hundreds of others.
The creators of 10-win seasons who flock from the Fresno State’s of the world - and the Louisville’s - win and stay at places like Texas.
Another thing Strong has going for him is his own recent history. He needed two seasons in Louisville to start producing double-digit wins - he started out with two identical 7-6 outings before going 11-2 then getting hired away by Texas after a 12-1 Year 4. The Louisville fan base was patient with Strong, as the seven-win mark showed immediate 3-win improvement over his predecessor and was coupled with excitement in recruiting.
And improvement is a key term
It’s another reason that seven wins will be Strong’s magic number.
It gives fans reason to believe that, despite their relative suffering, at least things are improving. Again, a discussion about feelings and social mentalities that is supported fully by the numbers we’ve assembled here.
Of the 36 current head coaches on the college football landscape producing sustaining success, only seven did not improve from Year 1 to Year 2. Of the 22 successful coaches in good standing who are at schools comparable to Texas, only two did not improve their win totals from Year 1 to Year 2: Jimbo Fisher (Florida State) and Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M).
… And we’re not so sure that Kevin Sumlin is to be spoken of using words like “in good standing” or “comparable to Texas” around these parts. In fact, it’s probably best to show ourselves out of the escape-hatch before the locals start getting restless.
As we squeeze upward toward fresh air and sunshine we thank you, once again, for reading.
Al Golden, Miami
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Curtis Johnson, Tulane
Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
Larry Fedora, UNC
Mike Leach, Washington St.
Norm Chow, Hawaii
Randy Edsall, Maryland
Mike London, Virginia
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe
If Texas HC Charlie Strong hopes to avoid being mentioned on a similar list in his own near-future, he has to win at least seven games at Texas in 2015. Recent history says that any number south of seven in Strong's case leads to near-imminent arrival of the hot seat. And no one wants the hot seat. We’re going to tell you exactly why.
It’s been a long few days of very busy, very balmy work. We’d recommend allergen masks as you descend the creaky steps for this edition - recent rains have the molds and God knows what else kicking up.
It’s a trip to our dark basement sure to make even the coolest of customers sweat a little.
We welcome you back to …
. . .
The Deep Dig
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
Before we get started, here is a link to the full spreadsheet.
We’ve examined all 170 Division I coaching hires that were made from 2005 to 2012 in an attempt to better understand - and in some ways quantify - the abstract idea of the hot seat. The goal is to identify the circumstances that lead to both finding and avoiding it.
On how the data was gathered and organized:
- Each Division I coaching hire during the span was chronicled from the time of its start to its eventual end or the present - whichever was applicable.
- Each hire was categorized as either an offensive or defensive hire based on the head coach’s philosophical football background.
- Each year of each tenure is chronicled by W-L record within the horizontal cells leading to present day or date of tenure's last service. The cells are highlighted to note these six events, as are the coaches' name cells in the "TOTAL" tab.
RED: FIRED - the red cells indicate that the head-coaching tenure was ended due to firing in the corresponding year. If a red cell is not preceded by a pink cell, it means that the coach’s seat did not become hot as detected by the Deep Dig until the year he was fired.
PINK: ON THE HOT SEAT - the pink cells indicate that the given year within the tenure was either spent in, or led to, hot-seat status. This abstract variable was assigned via research on every tenure examined. Typical events that led to “hot seat”-assignment were items such as,
- public responses from athletic directors or other university figureheads asserting the coach in question would indeed be back next season.
- multiple appearances in the annually popular national content pieces and lists identifying the coming season’s hot-seat candidates.
- multiple mentions from local media in news clippings using terms like “hot seat,” “feeling the pressure,” “needs to win this year,” or similar terms within these contexts.
- reports from local media that important program stakeholders had lost faith in the coach.
- other obvious, reasonable indicators of discord within the tenure.
BLUE: SUCCESSFUL AND STILL IN GOOD STANDING - the blue cells indicate the type of hire every university wants to make, a successful, sustaining presence who has stuck around so far.
GREEN: SUCCESSFUL AND HIRED AWAY - the green cells indicate that the given year of the tenure marked the coach’s last as he was hired away for a better job.
WHITE: OVERCAME THE HOT SEAT TO GOOD STANDING - the uncolored cells featuring coaches’ names in the “TOTAL” tab are very rare and indicate that a coach has overcome hot-seat status and returned to good standing.
BLACK: PERSONAL/HEALTH - the black cells indicate that the coaching tenure was ended due to personal and/or health circumstances.
. . .
The hot seat doesn’t really cool back down
Image via Desert News
It’s a ridiculous rarity. This "study" is as much about sports society as it is football - thanks to the nature of the hot seat and its use as a variable. The reason why is that the hot seat is created, inherently, by forces outside of the actual football program. Fans, media, donors and other stakeholders of varying levels surrounding the program are the creators of the hot seat - coaches certainly don’t do it to themselves.
And even still, the “hot seat” as defined here leads to a firing. The cells in the graph show, in virtually every case, that once they go pink, they go red - and quickly. In fact, only three coaches out of 170 total tenures have overcome some form of hot-seat status to continue coaching at the school in a current non-hot-seat setting: Troy Calhoun of Air Force, Rick Stocksill of Middle Tennessee State and Kyle Whittingham of Utah.
. . .
Charlie Strong is a defensive head coach
Defensive head-coaching hires have not recently been as frequent - or successful as offensive hires.
The number defensive head-coaching hires made over the span (56) is less than half that of offensive hires (114) and the info-graph below shows that the offensive hires have panned out better. The red and pink areas in the graph take up much more space in the defensive sample, while the blues and greens are more frequent in the much-larger offensive sample.
If you’re going to get fired, the seat heats up alarming early - especially for offensive head coaches.
The average amount of “time until hot seat” that passed for defensive head coaches in the sample (who were fired or are currently on the hot seat) is 2.55 years.
The average amount of “time until hot seat” that passed for offensive head coaches in the sample (who were fired or are currently on the hot seat) is 1.69 years.
. . .
Charlie Strong was a successful defensive head coach hired away for a better job
Successful defensive head coaches hired away for better jobs over the period examined have not been as successful as offensive coaches who’ve had the same opportunity.
Since 2005, these defensive head coaches started and completed successful tenures at smaller programs, and were hired away for better jobs:
Charlie Strong, Louisville - Now at Texas, was 6-7 in 2014, a disappointing first season.
Al Golden, Bowling Green - Now on the hot seat in Miami following Year 4.
Brady Hoke, San Diego State - Fired as Michigan HC after four seasons; was on the hot seat after Year 3.
Gene Chizik, Iowa State - Fired as Auburn HC following Year 4; hot seat developed during final season.
Brian Kelly, Cincinnati - Now in the “blue group” as becoming successful in good standing at Notre Dame.
Tim Beckman, Toledo - Now on the hot seat at Illinois (into and) following Year 3.
Gary Andersen, Utah State - Now at Oregon State after trending toward being a “blue group” successful coach in good standing after two seasons at Wisconsin.
Dave Doeren, Northern Illinois - Now at NC State, improved from a bad 3-9 first-season with eight wins in 2014.
Mike Macintyre, San Jose State - Now at Colorado, a prime candidate for Year 3 hot-seat status in 2015 having won only six games total in two seasons.
Willie Taggart, Western Kentucky - Now at USF, another prime candidate for Year 3 hot-seat status after his own pathetic six total wins.
Bret Bielema - Wisconsin - Now at Arkansas and the jury is still very much out regarding his long-term prospects after going 3-9 and 7-6 in his first two seasons.
(Alabama’s Nick Saban would clearly be a notable positive addition to this list as a defensive head coach who has had success, but his tenure at Bama began in 2005 which was the first year of the study.)
. . .
Charlie Strong won only six games in his first season
Less than half the coaches who won six games or less in their first season (at schools comparable to Texas) have gone on to sustainable success when compared to those who won more than six games.
Coaches who have gone on to sustaining, successful tenures over the period examined with equal-to or less than six wins in Year 1 are (16 total tenures - programs comparable to Texas are bolded):
Terry Bowden, Akron - 1 win
David Bailiff, Rice - 3 wins
Jerry Kill, Minnesota - 3 wins
Art Briles, Baylor - 4 wins
Dabo Swinney, Clemson - 4 wins
David Cutcliffe, Duke - 4 wins
Frank Solich, Ohio - 4 wins
Justin Fuente - Memphis - 4 wins
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State - 4 wins
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern - 4 wins
Dan McCarney, North Texas - 5 wins
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State - 5 wins
Doc Holliday, Marshall - 5 wins
Bill Snyder, Kansas State (second tenure) - 6 wins
Ruffin McNeil, ECU - 6 wins
Pete Lembo, Ball State - 6 wins
Coaches who have gone on to sustaining, successful tenures over the period examined with more than six wins in their first season are (20 total tenures - programs comparable to Texas are bolded): Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss), Nick Saban (Alabama), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Steve Spurrier (South Carolina), Brian Kelly (Notre Dame), Ken Niumatalolo (Navy), Rich Rodriguez (Arizona), Rocky Long (San Diego State), Todd Graham (Arizona State), Jim Mora (UCLA), Kyle Flood (Rutgers), Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette), Matt Campbell (Toledo), Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech), Tim DeRuyter (Fresno State), Jimbo Fisher (Florida State), David Shaw (Stanford), Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M), Les Miles (LSU) and Urban Meyer (Ohio State).
That’s 16 coaches at schools similar to Texas who’ve gone on to become successful when winning more games in their respective first seasons than Charlie Strong did in 2014 and only seven who’ve done the same after winning an equal amount or less of games.
Of all coaching tenures over the period examined, here is a pie-graph illustration of the eventual fates of every head coach who registered less than six wins in his first season.
. . .
Charlie Strong won two less games in his first season than his fired predecessor
Only two of the 35 coaches now flourishing successfully and sustainably within the tenures examined posted win totals two or more games worse than the previously fired coach.
These two coaches are Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern, -3) and Doc Holliday (Marshall, -2).
David Bailiff (Rice, -4), Ruffin McNeil (ECU, -3) and Mike Gundy (Oklahoma St., - 3) are the only other successful, sustaining coaches who posted a win total two or more fewer than their immediate predecessors. These three followed winning coaches who were hired away as opposed to lame ducks.
This pie-graph represents the fates of the total sample of coaches who posted two or fewer wins in their first season than their predecessors, regardless if the predecessor was fired or hired away.
In stark contrast, this pie-graph represents the fates of the total sample of coaches who posted win totals in their first season greater-than or equal-to their predecessors, regardless if the predecessor was fired or hired away.
. . .
CONCLUSION: Recent History Says Charlie Strong Needs At Least 7 Wins in 2015 to Avoid the Hot Seat
Many of these early findings are not positive regarding a projection of Strong’s career-arc at Texas between the low Year 1 win total, a decrease in wins from a fired predecessor, a lack of defensive head coaches succeeding in similar circumstances and the relative lack of defensive head coaches in the current college football landscape who’ve become sustaining, successful presences when compared to those with offensive backgrounds.
The data here shows that, if history is any indication, Charlie Strong will come into Year 3 of his coaching tenure at Texas on (or soon-to-be on) the hot seat if he wins six games or less in 2015 based on two-year win totals.
With a seven-to-eight win season, the projection changes dramatically - and projections for success, of course, should only go up with additional wins from there. As an example, here’s what can be expected with a a 9-10 win Year 2 based on two-year win totals.
Furthermore, at a University like Texas, which is a premiere destination, the “green” section of the pies should be seen as simply additional “blue” - this is because it isn’t often that a coach gets hired away to a better situation from a premiere destination. The vast majority of success at Texas should be viewed as sustaining, an advantage it has over places like Cincinnati, Bowling Green or hundreds of others.
The creators of 10-win seasons who flock from the Fresno State’s of the world - and the Louisville’s - win and stay at places like Texas.
Another thing Strong has going for him is his own recent history. He needed two seasons in Louisville to start producing double-digit wins - he started out with two identical 7-6 outings before going 11-2 then getting hired away by Texas after a 12-1 Year 4. The Louisville fan base was patient with Strong, as the seven-win mark showed immediate 3-win improvement over his predecessor and was coupled with excitement in recruiting.
. . .
And improvement is a key term
It’s another reason that seven wins will be Strong’s magic number.
It gives fans reason to believe that, despite their relative suffering, at least things are improving. Again, a discussion about feelings and social mentalities that is supported fully by the numbers we’ve assembled here.
Of the 36 current head coaches on the college football landscape producing sustaining success, only seven did not improve from Year 1 to Year 2. Of the 22 successful coaches in good standing who are at schools comparable to Texas, only two did not improve their win totals from Year 1 to Year 2: Jimbo Fisher (Florida State) and Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M).
… And we’re not so sure that Kevin Sumlin is to be spoken of using words like “in good standing” or “comparable to Texas” around these parts. In fact, it’s probably best to show ourselves out of the escape-hatch before the locals start getting restless.
As we squeeze upward toward fresh air and sunshine we thank you, once again, for reading.
