The whole time, as predicted, defensive-productivity market shares shifted toward the future. So, we wrap up another Longhorns season (and we’re not sure this one’s contents deserve any bow or frilly ribbons upon packaging for storage). We reflect on the campaign with an eye pointed toward that same approaching destination in time.
After all, we live in constant anticipation of a future Texas monster.
We welcome you back to …
The Deep Dig - Season Finale: Defense
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
Returning Snaps By Position
- The graphic shows what is clearly known to many fans at this point; and in the wake of Hassan Ridgeway’s decision to forego his senior season at Texas: the Longhorns return very little depth and 2015 experience in the defensive trenches.
- Even if Texas manages to reel in two-to-three more defensive tackle prospects on top of its sole 2016 DT commit Gerald Wilbon, an injury to Poona Ford would prove disastrous. As would an injury to Paul Boyette. Even Chris Nelson - a relative afterthought among defenders who took 2015 snaps - becomes a player Texas simply cannot lose. Fans certainly hope that Hassan Ridgeway and Desmond Jackson took their susceptibility to missing time and getting banged up with them as they move on.
- If the Texas defensive line is another walking injury ward in 2016, it will be a long season … and if things go too far south, possibly Strong’s last in Austin. We’ve learned that Texas fans can be a demanding bunch and the big-money donors are probably already sniffing around big-name coaches just in case. Many believe Charlie Strong was not hired to allow lesser schools to take turns running roughshod on the Horns offensively. It’s crazy that a man’s job could foreseeably come down to the health of a few 20-year-olds, but perhaps that’s why Strong makes $5 million a year. That's about a million a win so far.
It’s good work if you can get it, we suppose.
Total 2015 Snaps on Defense
- Poona Ford could render all this talk irrelevant as he faces a fantastic opportunity to step into a major role and be a positive difference-maker for the Texas defense. We believe that he certainly understands it’s his time. Ford’s production per snap, as you’ll see, is nowhere near that of Hassan Ridgeway, but Ford had 3.5 QB sacks inside the original pocket in 2015, which led the team. We count sacks inside the pocket because they show interior-penetrating ability.
- With this said, Hassan Ridgeway’s amount of productivity is going to be hard to replace. To put things in perspective, Poona Ford had one QB hit in 2015 and Ridgeway had 12 on 46 total fewer snaps. Ridgeway’s nearest competition in QB hits (hitting the QB as he’s passing the ball but not getting a sack) was …
- Malik. What a freshman year and what a player. Hassan Ridgeway left early for the NFL and freshman Malik Jefferson is still the Deep Dig’s first-annual defensive market-share champion on the same defense.
- It’s surprising that Texas’ most “experienced” returning position based on 2015 snaps alone is the MIKE linebacker which is clearly headlined by Malik Jefferson, as Jefferson was only a freshman last season. He’ll not only return as the undisputed, far-and-away best player on the Texas defense in 2016, he’ll be leading up the position that returns the most 2015 defensive experience of all. Despite the amazing season, Jefferson did finish the year second on the team in missed tackles …
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Most likely to miss a tackle on any given play in 2016:
It’s actually a tight race between the defense’s best returning player and one of its biggest question-marks. LB Malik Jefferson finished the season with the second-most missed tackles on the team (14), just behind Peter Jinkens (16), but our Deep Dig Award of the Future in this category goes to the team’s third-biggest whiffer of 2015 in …
Nickel CB JOHN BONNEY
Bonney played just under 80 less snaps than Malik Jefferson in 2015 and only missed one less tackle (13). Bonney missed one tackle per every 39.08 snaps, so had Bonney (508) played the same number of snaps as Jefferson (585), it’s fair to project he’d have missed two more tackles, taking his season-total to 15.
- The bad news is that Texas does not have a player returning in 2016 who’s ever taken a real-game snap at the SAM linebacker position as it was handled in WILL-SAM double-duty through 2015 by the departed Peter Jinkens. The good news is that Texas hardly runs any plays in its base 4-3 defense which is the only time the SAM is on the field.
- Derrick Roberson could have gone on either side of the defensive line as he played a virtually even-split of snaps at the two positions during 91 snaps. It’s likely that Charles Omenihu will shift to the strong-side defensive end at some point in his Texas career, but all signs point toward his staying at the FOX for the immediate future. Between Omenihu and Hughes, the FOX position is among the least of Texas fans’ worries for 2016.
Production Per Snap
- If injuries were to strike, the staff would likely (and correctly) move Caleb Bluiett back to the defensive side of the ball as Blake Whiteley’s impending return, along with at least one talented 2016 TE recruit in Peyton Aucoin, will sufficiently alleviate the need for TE “depth” that originally forced the staff to move one of its most disruptive defenders to a largely non-impact position on the offensive side of the football.
- Texas returns a decent amount of experience at the SDE position, but it’s not experienced talent by any means. Bryce Cottrell did not live up to his preseason billing as a player the staff believed would break out. As things stood, Cottrell was barely even able to break out of a piddly shadow cast by perennial underachiever Shiro Davis, who is now gone.
- An SDE recruit such as Andrew Fitzgerald has a legitimate shot to come into Texas and start immediately. The Deep Dig has recently been struggling internally to develop a firm grasp on its opinions on Fitzgerald as a prospect, and is not suggesting he will be the starter. The point is, however, an opportunity exists for to have a Patrick Vahe or Connor Williams-like impact at the position for any SDE newcomer. It was the hope last year for …
- Quincy Vasser. He’s shown some nice things in garbage time and Roberson has flashed even stronger indicators of athleticism (and has done so during more meaningful game-play) but it’s foolish to think that this is a position that is not ripe for the taking. In the absence of a 2016 Derick Roberson breakout (which is certainly possible), SDE remains somewhere between serviceable and a major position of weakness. Caleb Bluiett cannot move back to defense soon enough. He would be able to operate at either the FOX or SDE position given his size and experience.
- The bottom line is that fans who’re expecting dramatic or even marginal 2016 improvement in the run-defense and/or pass-rush departments are doing so on blind faith (not that we have anything against blind faith). The reasonable and optimistic hope should be an output from both phases comparable to 2015 right out of the gates with improvement coming as the schedule winds its way to the wintertime.
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Most likely to disrupt an opposing pass on any given play in 2016:
Our basement’s “academy” had a real split-decision over this one - and it’s a definite two-horse race. On a very limited sample size of 70 snaps, Deshon Elliott caused an interception, batted pass, PBU or blowup an astounding once per every 23.33 snaps. With this said, our winner was almost as effective per snap and was the team’s leader in opposing pass-disruption despite playing relatively few snaps himself …
CB DAVANTE DAVIS
Davis led the team in cumulative opposing pass disruption with 11.5 total on only 411 snaps. Regarding opposing pass disruption per-snap, Davis was doing work on one out of every 35.7 snaps he was on the field for. To put that in perspective, Davis was breaking things up twice more often than Holton Hill per-snap, three times more often than Duke Thomas, four times more often than Jason Hall and five times more often than John Bonney.
Ridiculous.
- So it’s not all doom and gloom. Davante Davis did not gain the experience via snaps in 2015 that Holton Hill did, but between the two of them, both cornerback spots should be on complete lockdown for the next 2-3 years barring injuries. We found it incredible that Holton Hill - a player who many may look back on through 2015 as wet behind the ears - played 206 more snaps than Hassan Ridgeway.
- On top of Hill and Davis, there will also be true sophomore Kris Boyd, who seemed to fall a bit out of the mix in 2015 following his Halftime-Tweeting Escapade. With this said, the Deep Dig has proclaimed he’s a player the Texas staff will keep off the field at its own peril. The question moving forward is where will Boyd fit in? Legitimate options would be nickel corner or possibly even safety.
- An easy way to get Boyd involved during high-impact situations would be to play him at the Cheetah position which Duke Thomas has vacated when the defense goes to it’s third-down speed and pressure package in dime.
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Least likely to miss a tackle on any given play in 2016:
The following players played at least one defensive snap in 2015 and did not miss a tackle:
CB Bryson Echols (very likely to transfer): 33 snaps
DE Quincy Vasser (will have increased role): 40 snaps
DT Chris Nelson (will have drastically increased role): 122 snaps
DT Jake McMillon (will have drastically increased role): 18 snaps
DE Caleb Bluiett (will hopefully be back on defense): 6 snaps
LB Breckyn Hager (will have increased role): 120 snaps
LB Dom Cruciani (will remain a non-factor): 2 snaps
While all of these players (especially those pegged for increased roles who did not miss a tackle on over 100 snaps in Hager and Nelson) certainly deserve consideration, our Awards of the Future winner in this category is …
Nickel CB/S PJ LOCKE
On his 206 snaps in 2015, Locke only missed one tackle and boasts the highest snaps-per-missed tackle number on the entire team.
- Add in true sophomore PJ Locke, who started his first game at the nickel during one of the biggest $1 million wins Charlie Strong has put on the record books to end 2015 at Baylor. Between Locke’s 2015 snaps and those of RS sophomore John Bonney, the nickel corner position returns as one of the most experienced. Along with the group’s experience comes legitimate hope for Locke, a former point guard basketball player with terrific instincts, feet, spatial understanding and a natural football intellect.
- As for the safeties, Texas fans will throw tomatoes at Dylan Haines, but he was one of the more effective and productive players the Texas defense rolled out in 2015; despite some busted coverages and hiccups.
- Jason Hall actually appeared to be the player the staff had less trust for. With Haines likely to start out the 2016 spring recovering from late-season injury, it opens up the door for Deshon Elliott to make a serious run at starting. How it ends up occurring will be interesting to follow, but the one thing that fans of the Longhorns and recruiting all know is that it’s about time for Elliott to make his run somehow. He’s just dripping with potential and physical gifts.
- At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion that at least at some point in the 2016 season, Texas fans will see a defensive backfield made up of four dynamic players from the 2015 class as starters in Holton Hill, Davante Davis, Deshon Elliott and PJ Locke with Kris Boyd (also a 2015 recruit) figuring in the mix somehow as well.
As we turn our attention to the offensive finale, we thank you, once again for reading.
After all, we live in constant anticipation of a future Texas monster.
We welcome you back to …
The Deep Dig - Season Finale: Defense
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
. . .
Returning Snaps By Position
- The graphic shows what is clearly known to many fans at this point; and in the wake of Hassan Ridgeway’s decision to forego his senior season at Texas: the Longhorns return very little depth and 2015 experience in the defensive trenches.
- Even if Texas manages to reel in two-to-three more defensive tackle prospects on top of its sole 2016 DT commit Gerald Wilbon, an injury to Poona Ford would prove disastrous. As would an injury to Paul Boyette. Even Chris Nelson - a relative afterthought among defenders who took 2015 snaps - becomes a player Texas simply cannot lose. Fans certainly hope that Hassan Ridgeway and Desmond Jackson took their susceptibility to missing time and getting banged up with them as they move on.
- If the Texas defensive line is another walking injury ward in 2016, it will be a long season … and if things go too far south, possibly Strong’s last in Austin. We’ve learned that Texas fans can be a demanding bunch and the big-money donors are probably already sniffing around big-name coaches just in case. Many believe Charlie Strong was not hired to allow lesser schools to take turns running roughshod on the Horns offensively. It’s crazy that a man’s job could foreseeably come down to the health of a few 20-year-olds, but perhaps that’s why Strong makes $5 million a year. That's about a million a win so far.
It’s good work if you can get it, we suppose.
. . .
Total 2015 Snaps on Defense
. . .
- Poona Ford could render all this talk irrelevant as he faces a fantastic opportunity to step into a major role and be a positive difference-maker for the Texas defense. We believe that he certainly understands it’s his time. Ford’s production per snap, as you’ll see, is nowhere near that of Hassan Ridgeway, but Ford had 3.5 QB sacks inside the original pocket in 2015, which led the team. We count sacks inside the pocket because they show interior-penetrating ability.
- With this said, Hassan Ridgeway’s amount of productivity is going to be hard to replace. To put things in perspective, Poona Ford had one QB hit in 2015 and Ridgeway had 12 on 46 total fewer snaps. Ridgeway’s nearest competition in QB hits (hitting the QB as he’s passing the ball but not getting a sack) was …
- It’s surprising that Texas’ most “experienced” returning position based on 2015 snaps alone is the MIKE linebacker which is clearly headlined by Malik Jefferson, as Jefferson was only a freshman last season. He’ll not only return as the undisputed, far-and-away best player on the Texas defense in 2016, he’ll be leading up the position that returns the most 2015 defensive experience of all. Despite the amazing season, Jefferson did finish the year second on the team in missed tackles …
. . .
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Most likely to miss a tackle on any given play in 2016:
It’s actually a tight race between the defense’s best returning player and one of its biggest question-marks. LB Malik Jefferson finished the season with the second-most missed tackles on the team (14), just behind Peter Jinkens (16), but our Deep Dig Award of the Future in this category goes to the team’s third-biggest whiffer of 2015 in …
Nickel CB JOHN BONNEY
Bonney played just under 80 less snaps than Malik Jefferson in 2015 and only missed one less tackle (13). Bonney missed one tackle per every 39.08 snaps, so had Bonney (508) played the same number of snaps as Jefferson (585), it’s fair to project he’d have missed two more tackles, taking his season-total to 15.
. . .
- The bad news is that Texas does not have a player returning in 2016 who’s ever taken a real-game snap at the SAM linebacker position as it was handled in WILL-SAM double-duty through 2015 by the departed Peter Jinkens. The good news is that Texas hardly runs any plays in its base 4-3 defense which is the only time the SAM is on the field.
- Derrick Roberson could have gone on either side of the defensive line as he played a virtually even-split of snaps at the two positions during 91 snaps. It’s likely that Charles Omenihu will shift to the strong-side defensive end at some point in his Texas career, but all signs point toward his staying at the FOX for the immediate future. Between Omenihu and Hughes, the FOX position is among the least of Texas fans’ worries for 2016.
. . .
Production Per Snap
. . .
- If injuries were to strike, the staff would likely (and correctly) move Caleb Bluiett back to the defensive side of the ball as Blake Whiteley’s impending return, along with at least one talented 2016 TE recruit in Peyton Aucoin, will sufficiently alleviate the need for TE “depth” that originally forced the staff to move one of its most disruptive defenders to a largely non-impact position on the offensive side of the football.
- Texas returns a decent amount of experience at the SDE position, but it’s not experienced talent by any means. Bryce Cottrell did not live up to his preseason billing as a player the staff believed would break out. As things stood, Cottrell was barely even able to break out of a piddly shadow cast by perennial underachiever Shiro Davis, who is now gone.
- An SDE recruit such as Andrew Fitzgerald has a legitimate shot to come into Texas and start immediately. The Deep Dig has recently been struggling internally to develop a firm grasp on its opinions on Fitzgerald as a prospect, and is not suggesting he will be the starter. The point is, however, an opportunity exists for to have a Patrick Vahe or Connor Williams-like impact at the position for any SDE newcomer. It was the hope last year for …
- Quincy Vasser. He’s shown some nice things in garbage time and Roberson has flashed even stronger indicators of athleticism (and has done so during more meaningful game-play) but it’s foolish to think that this is a position that is not ripe for the taking. In the absence of a 2016 Derick Roberson breakout (which is certainly possible), SDE remains somewhere between serviceable and a major position of weakness. Caleb Bluiett cannot move back to defense soon enough. He would be able to operate at either the FOX or SDE position given his size and experience.
- The bottom line is that fans who’re expecting dramatic or even marginal 2016 improvement in the run-defense and/or pass-rush departments are doing so on blind faith (not that we have anything against blind faith). The reasonable and optimistic hope should be an output from both phases comparable to 2015 right out of the gates with improvement coming as the schedule winds its way to the wintertime.
. . .
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Most likely to disrupt an opposing pass on any given play in 2016:
Our basement’s “academy” had a real split-decision over this one - and it’s a definite two-horse race. On a very limited sample size of 70 snaps, Deshon Elliott caused an interception, batted pass, PBU or blowup an astounding once per every 23.33 snaps. With this said, our winner was almost as effective per snap and was the team’s leader in opposing pass-disruption despite playing relatively few snaps himself …
CB DAVANTE DAVIS
Davis led the team in cumulative opposing pass disruption with 11.5 total on only 411 snaps. Regarding opposing pass disruption per-snap, Davis was doing work on one out of every 35.7 snaps he was on the field for. To put that in perspective, Davis was breaking things up twice more often than Holton Hill per-snap, three times more often than Duke Thomas, four times more often than Jason Hall and five times more often than John Bonney.
Ridiculous.
. . .
- So it’s not all doom and gloom. Davante Davis did not gain the experience via snaps in 2015 that Holton Hill did, but between the two of them, both cornerback spots should be on complete lockdown for the next 2-3 years barring injuries. We found it incredible that Holton Hill - a player who many may look back on through 2015 as wet behind the ears - played 206 more snaps than Hassan Ridgeway.
- On top of Hill and Davis, there will also be true sophomore Kris Boyd, who seemed to fall a bit out of the mix in 2015 following his Halftime-Tweeting Escapade. With this said, the Deep Dig has proclaimed he’s a player the Texas staff will keep off the field at its own peril. The question moving forward is where will Boyd fit in? Legitimate options would be nickel corner or possibly even safety.
- An easy way to get Boyd involved during high-impact situations would be to play him at the Cheetah position which Duke Thomas has vacated when the defense goes to it’s third-down speed and pressure package in dime.
. . .
2015 DEEP DIG AWARDS OF THE FUTURE - DEFENSE
Least likely to miss a tackle on any given play in 2016:
The following players played at least one defensive snap in 2015 and did not miss a tackle:
CB Bryson Echols (very likely to transfer): 33 snaps
DE Quincy Vasser (will have increased role): 40 snaps
DT Chris Nelson (will have drastically increased role): 122 snaps
DT Jake McMillon (will have drastically increased role): 18 snaps
DE Caleb Bluiett (will hopefully be back on defense): 6 snaps
LB Breckyn Hager (will have increased role): 120 snaps
LB Dom Cruciani (will remain a non-factor): 2 snaps
While all of these players (especially those pegged for increased roles who did not miss a tackle on over 100 snaps in Hager and Nelson) certainly deserve consideration, our Awards of the Future winner in this category is …
Nickel CB/S PJ LOCKE
On his 206 snaps in 2015, Locke only missed one tackle and boasts the highest snaps-per-missed tackle number on the entire team.
. . .
- Add in true sophomore PJ Locke, who started his first game at the nickel during one of the biggest $1 million wins Charlie Strong has put on the record books to end 2015 at Baylor. Between Locke’s 2015 snaps and those of RS sophomore John Bonney, the nickel corner position returns as one of the most experienced. Along with the group’s experience comes legitimate hope for Locke, a former point guard basketball player with terrific instincts, feet, spatial understanding and a natural football intellect.
- As for the safeties, Texas fans will throw tomatoes at Dylan Haines, but he was one of the more effective and productive players the Texas defense rolled out in 2015; despite some busted coverages and hiccups.
- Jason Hall actually appeared to be the player the staff had less trust for. With Haines likely to start out the 2016 spring recovering from late-season injury, it opens up the door for Deshon Elliott to make a serious run at starting. How it ends up occurring will be interesting to follow, but the one thing that fans of the Longhorns and recruiting all know is that it’s about time for Elliott to make his run somehow. He’s just dripping with potential and physical gifts.
- At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion that at least at some point in the 2016 season, Texas fans will see a defensive backfield made up of four dynamic players from the 2015 class as starters in Holton Hill, Davante Davis, Deshon Elliott and PJ Locke with Kris Boyd (also a 2015 recruit) figuring in the mix somehow as well.
. . .
As we turn our attention to the offensive finale, we thank you, once again for reading.
