In my never-ending quest to turn the Pseudoscience of college football recruiting into something a little more scientific, today we're going to look at the value of elite tight ends prospects from the Lone Star State.
Specifically, we're going to look at the five-star prospects, high four stars (6.0) and mid-four stars from the state of Texas in the 2002-2015 classes that have completed their eligibility.
A few data points to know ...
1. On the average, a five-star ranked player has somewhere between a 45-70 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A five-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a four-star prospect and between 2-3 times more likely to be drafted at all than four stars.
2. On the average, a high four-star ranked player typically has somewhere between a 35-50 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A high four-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a three-star prospect and twice as likely to be drafted at all over a mid four-star prospect.
3. In an effort to please @RLong68, I decided to slot all 2002-03 national four-star prospects ranked between five-star status and the No.60 spot in the national rankings as a 6.0 four-star, while all 60-90 players in the national rankings.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2003 - Tony Hills (Texas)
2005 - Martellus Bennett (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of 2 players (100.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
* 2 of 2 players (100.0%) played on Sundays in the NFL.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2002 - Eric Winston (Miami)
2005 - Dajleon Farr (Miami)
2016 - Kaden Smith (Stanford)
Breakdown
* 2 of 3 players (66.7%) were drafted by NFL teams: Smith (6th)
* Notre Dame senior Brock Wright will likely be a drafted prospect in next year's class and is currently the only high four star active recruit.
Mid Four Stars
2005 - Jermichael Finley (Texas)
2011 - Jace Amaro (Texas Tech)
Breakdown
* 2 of 2 players (100.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
* The only active mid four-star recruit is Texas A&M's Baylor Cupp, who has baattled serious injuries in his first two seasons in College Station.
Low Four Stars
2006 - Jason Fox (North Carolina)
2008 - James Hanna (Oklahoma)
2011 - Max Stevenson (Oklahoma)
2011 - Chris Barnett (Michigan)
2011 - MJ McFarland (Texas)
2012 - Griffin Gilbert (TCU)
Breakdown
* 2 of 6 players (33.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Fox (4th round) and Hanna (6th round)
* There are as many active low-four star tight ends playing right now than from 2002-02016 combined: Alabama's Kedrick James (2017), Alabama's Major Tennison (2017), Michigan's Mustapha Muhammed (2018, Texas' Malcolm Epps (2018), Oklahoma's Austin Stonger (2019) and Texas A&M's Jalen Wydermyer (2020)
High-Three Stars
2007 - Ahmard Howard (Texas)
2007 - Alex Russian (LSU)
2009 - Hutson Prioleau (Texas A&M)
2009 - Jordan Naivar 9Stanford)
2009 - Trey Graham (Texas)
2009 - Barrett Matthews (Texas)
2010 - Trent Smiley (Kansas)
2013 - Durham Smythe (Notre Dame)
2013 - Charlie Reid (TCU)
2014 - Koda Martin (Texas A&M)
2014 - Marvin Saunders (FSU)
2015 - Jordan Davis (Texas A&M)
* 1 of 12 players (8.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Smythe (4th round)
Measured Against Other Positions
Here are how the quarterbacks from the state of Texas compare against their in-state peers at other positions.
100.0% of five-star tight ends were drafted by NFL teams.
85.7% of five-star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
83.3% of five-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of five-star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
44.4% of five-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of five-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of five-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
66.7% of high four-star tight ends were drafted by NFL teams.
50.0% of high four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
33.3% of high four--star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
33.3% of high four--star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
26.7% of high four-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of high four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
100.0% of mid four-star tight ends were drafted by NFL teams.
28.6% of mid four-star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
16.7% of mid four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
9.1% of mid four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
8.3% of mid four-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
6.7% of mid four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of mid four--star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
100% of five-star tight ends played in the NFL
100% of five-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
85.7% of five-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
66.7% of five-star running backs played in the NFL
66.7% of five-star defensive ends played in the NFL
50.0% of five-star linebackers played in the NFL
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen played in the NFL
0.0% of five-star wide receiver played in the NFL
66.7% of high four-star tight ends played in the NFL
60.0% of high four-star running backs played in the NFL.
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
33.3% of high four-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
33.3% of high four-star defensive ends played in the NFL
26.7% of high four-star wide receivers played in the NFL.
0.0% of high four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
42.9% of mid four-star defensive ends played in the NFL
33.0% of mid four-star tight ends played in the NFL
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
16.7% of mid four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
16.7% of mid four-star running backs played in the NFL.
13.3% of mid four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
12.5% of mid four-star wide receivers played in the NFL.
0.0% of mid four-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
Overall Breakdown
The problem in the state of Texas at the tight end position is that there just aren't enough of them. When the position presents the world with a legit tight end prospect, he typically ends up being really good.
That the position outperforms every position on the pitch at every level of the five and four star rankings is pretty wild, even if the sample size is obviously limited. Eight out of the top 14 tight ends ever ranked in the Rivals rankings regardless of ranking tier emerged as drafted NFL players. That number outperforms the production of every positions in the state's five-star talent outside of two,
If a tight end pops up in the rankings, he basically becomes the safest prospect in the state in any year. Remember that.
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