Brought to you by these three great men:
1) All about alignment
During Tom Herman’s introductory press conference, he mentioned the words “aligned” or “alignment” or “aligning” seven times. When he was asked about learning from Urban Meyer, he mentioned those words. When he was asked about UT President Greg Fenves and UT Athletics Director Mike Perrin, he said those words. Working for David Bailiff at Texas State when Herman received his first chance to be an offensive coordinator? Aligned. On what swayed him to come to Texas? Alignment.
If you want to understand Herman and his vision as the Texas head coach, it starts with alignment. He said as much throughout his introduction at nearly every opportunity.
But Herman’s final staff hires spoke the loudest about his alignment vision.
Before you critique and analyze Herman’s staff, now that it’s completed, you must first understand his vision and what he values most. In order for he and his staff to successful relay their messages about anything and everything Texas football, he believes all of those messages must be aligned. And because Herman is so details-obsessed, he’s thought of all of those messages, and where they come from.
In order for the alignment philosophy to work, Herman’s entire staff has to not only understand the method to the madness, but implement it too. And there’s no time for Herman to play the role of teacher for both coaching staff and football roster. This is Texas. There’s no time to waste. No one knows that more and better than Herman, and his coaching staff won't lack the familiarity and chemistry that his predecessor's did.
That’s why it’s paramount to Herman that he not only surrounds himself with people that understand his schematic philosophy and are familiar with what he expects, but also that his coaching staff fully understands what it means to be aligned. There can’t be any breaks in the message-delivery process because that means a leak in the system, and there can’t be any weak links when it comes to putting in the kind of work Herman expects.
Is it fair for some Texas fans to be skeptical about the recent hire of Tim Beck as offensive coordinator? Of course. He doesn’t arrive at Texas after being at Ohio State and Nebraska without a few question marks, although the fan reaction from the Buckeyes and Huskers, especially the latter, represents the delusional and fanatical aspects of fans more so than the realistic. Don’t laugh, Texas fans. Y’all do it too.
Anyway, just like it was at Ohio State this season, the offense at Texas will be the head coach’s offense. And it’s another example of Herman taking complete control of his program. The offense is his offense just like Texas is his football team; he’s not leaving anything to chance by not having his influence over everything that happens. By assembling a coaching staff that he knows deeply, and that gets him, Herman puts himself in the best position to control his program.
He hired a staff that he’s not only familiar with and that’s familiar with what he expects, but one that will allow his staff and its message-delivery to be best aligned. If you believe Herman will be successful at Texas, it means you believe in his methods, and his final coaching staff hires represented best how much he values those methods. But maybe more importantly, his hires showed he has a plan and he aspires to have full control of his program.
If Herman is going to succeed at Texas, it won't be because of his coordinator hires. Instead, it’ll be because he and his plan worked, and his plan makes it certain that he is in charge of everything about Texas.
2) Offenses statistically that Beck was a part of
Nebraska 2011
S&P+ Overall Offense: 37th
FEI Overall Offense: 33rd
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 56th
S&P+ Passing Offense: 41st
Notes: In his first year as Nebraska’s offensive coordinator, Beck ran the ball with Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead more often than he threw it by a wide margin. Those two accounted for 39 total touchdowns.
Nebraska 2012
S&P+ Overall Offense: 8th
FEI Overall Offense: 32nd
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 3rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 15th
Notes: With an improved Martinez as a passer, Nebraska attacked more through the air in 2012. Losing Burkhead about midway through the year probably played into that a little, but Martinez posted a 141.6 rating with 23 touchdowns through the air (12 interceptions) and 10 more on the ground. Nebraska was still a team that ran the ball a lot more than it threw it, but there was more of a passing attack that season.
In Nebraska’s four losses that season it scored 30 points or more.
Nebraska 2013
S&P+ Overall Offense: 46th
FEI Overall Offense: 76th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 23rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 60th
Notes: It’s funny now to read comments from some of the Nebraska faithful about Beck after looking back at the 2013 season. Not only were Husker fans expecting a Heisman run from Martinez in 2013, but USA Today’s December 2012 Watch List included the Nebraska quarterback at No. 8 on the list just ahead of Teddy Bridgewater and Tajh Boyd.
Martinez hurt his foot the first week of the season, and tried to play through it until it was too much the second half of the UCLA game. He started the year with nine touchdowns and one interception through the first three games. An attempted comeback against Minnesota proved too difficult, and he was lost for the season.
Nebraska then bounced back and forth between senior Ron Kellogg III and redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong, who attended Cibolo Steele in Texas and was recruited by Beck.
Nebraska 2014
S&P+ Overall Offense: 28th
FEI Overall Offense: 36th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 23rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 41st
Notes: Nebraska rode Armstrong, then a redshirt sophomore, and future NFL running back Ameer Abdullah on offense. The duo accounted for 51 total touchdowns, and Nebraska again ran the ball way more than it threw it. In his final game at Nebraska, a 45-42 loss against USC in the Holiday Bowl, Beck watched Armstrong throw for 381 yards with three touchdowns and another score on the ground.
Ohio State 2015
S&P+ Overall Offense: 14th
FEI Overall Offense: 10th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 8th
S&P+ Passing Offense: 26th
Notes: Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett basically split the year at quarterback, and Ezekiel Elliott ran for 23 touchdowns in an offense that featured the run more than the pass.
Ohio State 2016
S&P+ Overall Offense: 23rd
FEI Overall Offense: 16th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 3rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 64th
Notes: The public conversation from Ohio State fans and those around the program suggests the offense was far worse than the numbers say. Truth is Ohio State was just a very young team with an average offensive line and a quarterback that lost confidence and lacked down-the-field accuracy. And the truth is, like 2015, it was Urban Meyer’s offense. But still it was one of the better offenses in the country that did a good job of trying to feature its playmakers at their strengths. For example, take junior RB/do-it-all stud Curtis Samuel, who touched the ball 171 times with almost an even split in catches and rushes.
Conclusion: Based on his track record at previous places, the two things that arguably stood out the most were dual-threat quarterbacks, and an offense feeding and featuring its best players non-stop, especially on the ground.
Again, like stated in the first section, it’s fair to have questions about Beck. But, again, this offense at Texas will be Herman’s offense, and he’ll have someone he trusts and someone he’s on the same page with calling the shots. That person, Beck, has been a part of successful offenses in each of his last six seasons.
3) Stan Drayton checks all the boxes
If he was the only coach hired yesterday, Stan Drayton would have generated more attention, and would be lauded as the home run hire he is. Drayton checks off all the boxes, and represents, truly, an elite hire at his position. When both Carlos Hyde and Ezekiel Elliott retweet a news release about a coach being hired, you know that coach is respected and good at what he does.
In addition to those two NFL backs, Drayton also coached Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard, who trailed only Elliott on the NFL rushing list. Add in running backs like Brian Westbrook, Jeremy Langford in 2015, Jerious Norwood in 2004 at Mississippi State, and DeShawn Wynn at Florida, and Drayton’s list of running backs that thrived under his watch is very impressive. Throw in that he’s regarded and has the track record of an elite recruiter, and it’s pretty much impossible to find a negative in this hire.
Both Beck and Drayton represent the kind of top-notch recruiters Herman needed to round out his staff with, and Drayton is the type of name that can go anywhere in the country and recruit the elites. If Elliott wins the NFL MVP this season, it would mean that Drayton signed two future NFL MVPs out of high school with the other being Cam Newton at Florida.
4) Under Armour and Army All-American Game thoughts
Texas fans should be excited by what recent commitment Toneil Carter showed during last Sunday’s game. Not only did the Rivals250 running back out of Langham Creek (Houston) run between the tackles, he also was used out of the backfield often as a receiver, which included a big catch deep down the field. Carter has the size needed to run power and inside zone, and he also has the vision, patience, and burst to make plays on the outside with the top end speed to be a home run threat. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pushing for playing time immediately at Texas.
North Shore (Houston) four-star defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson tied the sack record at the Under Armour All-American Game, and was a constant force off the edge. He’s definitely on the lean and skinny side, but with his length, quickness, and motor Chaisson looks like a Rivals100 defensive end. It’s hard to find defensive ends with his speed and length combination that can also do things like use his hands effectively when rushing, throw spin moves at tackles, and look totally at home standing up before the snap before using his agility and quickness to beat defenders.
In San Antonio at the Army All-American Game practices, recent Texas offensive line commitment Derek Kerstetter held his own during the first two days. Kerstetter, who said he measured at 6-5, 297 pounds but looked to be closer to 6-4, won more one-on-one reps than he lost. Although he worked both at right tackle and right guard, Kerstetter looks more comfortable at guard where his feet and lack of length profile better. He showed an understanding of how to engage defenders, establish quality hand position, and then use a powerful base during one-on-ones, and during team sessions, he looked comfortable as a pulling guard and in combo blocking situations. It would be a surprise if Kerstetter cracks the two-deep during his freshmen season, but he looks like a prospect that could start at guard later in his career.
I don’t get the impression Texas has a good shot at getting into Rivals250 receiver Jamire Calvin’s recruitment late and coming away victorious, but he showed why Texas offered. On the small side, Calvin is elusive in the open field, a solid route-runner, and has big, strong hands. The Los Angeles product could do damage in the right system at the next level.
Lancaster (Lancaster) receiver Omar Manning looked terrific physically; he looked like someone that runs the 200-meter in college with size, stride length and lean muscle. I don’t know if he’s great at one thing as a receiver prospect, but he’s very well-rounded.
Other thoughts on guys Texas isn’t in on:
--- Running back Najee Harris, an Alabama commitment, is the No. 1 overall prospect, and I think there’s a sizable gap between him and No. 2. He’s as special of a running back prospect as I’ve ever seen in person.
--- This is going to string for Longhorn fans, but after seeing them all again up close Baron Browning, Walker Little, and Jeffrey Okudah all look like top 15 prospects overall. Okudah, who will likely end up at Ohio State, has a lot of traits that remind me of Jalen Ramsey, and Little looked like the best offensive lineman in the country.
--- Cam Akers is going to step into the role vacated by Dalvin Cook’s upcoming NFL departure, and has the talent to put together a similar career. He’ll probably start day one at Florida State, and is that good.
--- Whoever signs Chuck Filiaga has a lot of work to do. The physical attributes are there, but he was routinely beat, and dominated, during the first two days.
--- Five-star Clemson commitment Hunter Johnson looked like the top QB at the Army practices, especially when it comes to physical tools. I expected more arm strength and arm action from highly-touted signal callers Dylan McCaffrey and Jake Fromm; both threw a bit of an unsure football that lacked some zip, and came out late during 7-on-7 sessions. DeSoto product and future TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson is a project as a thrower.
CLICK HERE for all of Rivals.com’s Army All-American Game coverage, including videos of one-on-ones.
5) If Texas is going to keep its head above water in Big 12 play…
It needs win tonight at home against Oklahoma State, and must win two of its next three games (at Iowa State and TCU at home) before playing West Virginia, at Kansas, and at Baylor back-to-back-to-back. All three of those teams are ranked No. 7 or better overall by KenPom.com.
Not only does Texas need tonight’s game because it’ll be one of the “easiest” – the only two teams not ranked in the KenPom.com top 40 in the Big 12 are Texas and Oklahoma - Big 12 games it has this season, but it also desperately needs to feel that winning feeling again after going 3-7 in its last 10 with four of those losses being by five points or less, which were all in December.
Oh, and as 2017 point guard Matt Coleman very likely nears a decision in less than two weeks, Texas could use a win or two to show him.
6) Big 12 conference hoops is off and rolling, and…
Now that we’re into January and the conference schedule, the grind for Big 12 coaches is truly about to begin. Smart’s most challenging season of his head coaching career is only going to get tougher from here on out. It’s safe to say the Big 12 will again compete to be the best hoops conference in the nation. But what else is known about the conference?
There is no debate. These teams are good – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
After losing in overtime to a good Indiana team in Hawai’i to begin the season, Kansas is on a 13-game winning streak. The Jayhawks are led by two good, veteran guards and boast depth, and the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect has been Player of the Year good. Losing freshman big Udoka Azubuike for the season hurts, but bigs Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg have both rebounded at an elite level. Kansas has just one weakness: It is nearly dead last (336th) nationally in free throw percentage.
Interestingly, Kansas was pushed to the limit by TCU in Fort Worth, and Kansas State should have forced overtime if not for Kansas getting the benefit of five steps before a shot on the eventual game-winner last night.
Against Texas, Kansas State scored 0.97 points per possession, shot 44.4 percent from two-point range, and 25.0 percent from three. Against Kansas, those numbers were, respectively, 1.22, 60.0, and 33.3. Frank Mason, Devonte’ Graham, and Josh Jackson are all really good, but they’re being asked to play 35-plus minutes right now, and Kansas' defense isn't great.
Arguably the biggest surprise in college hoops this season is Baylor, who is a perfect 13-0 with wins over Oregon, VCU, Xavier, Louisville, and Michigan State. Baylor is experienced, passes the ball as well as anyone, and has a good inside-outside balance with an elite shot-blocker in its zone defense. Only question facing Baylor as it enters Big 12 play: Can it win on the road? The Bears were terrific in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, but have played just one actual road game, which resulted in them hammering Oklahoma.
Despite winning at Virginia and playing Illinois and Temple, West Virginia has played one of the nation’s easiest schedules, per KenPom.com (302nd out of 351). However, the Mountaineers are for real. They knew exactly who they are, which is an aggressive, attacking, pressing team that turns teams over at the nation’s highest rate, crashes the offensive glass hard, and does a great job of not turning the ball over. They’re beatable, as Texas Tech proved in Lubbock last night with a game-winning three in overtime. But they’re also capable of completely dictating the style and pace of a game and blowing anyone not named Kansas out of the gym.
They have great point guards, but how good are Iowa State and Oklahoma State?
In his first season as head coach at Oklahoma State, Brad Underwood’s Cowboys are improved from last season, and sophomore point guard Jawun Evans, who took an official visit to Texas before signing with Oklahoma State in the fall, has been as good as any guard in the league. Oklahoma State picked up an impressive road win at Wichita State, but was blasted by North Carolina and Georgetown in neutral site games, and lost its Big 12 opener at home to West Virginia by 17 points.
The Cowboys play as fast as anyone in the country, thanks to Underwood’s aggressive defensive style, and shoot it well from deep (yes, Phil Forte is still in school). However, they also foul as much as anyone in the country (Wichita State shot 47 free throws in a loss!), get crushed on the offensive glass by opposing teams, and are just average when it comes to shooting percentages on defense.
Georges Niang and Jameel McKay are gone from Iowa State, but the beer flowed endlessly in Ames, Iowa when point guard Monte Morris announced he’d return for his senior season after playing almost, literally, every single minute for his team last season. Plus, the Cyclones start five seniors, and four of them can really shoot the rock.
However, Iowa State has played five games against teams ranked 250 or worse, and is 2-3 in its “real” games this season after coming from behind to beat Texas Tech at home last week. The Gonzaga (neutral) and Cincinnati (home) losses were extremely close, but Iowa smacked Iowa State by 14 recently.
Texas’ rival from north of the Red River feeling a similar pain.
Senior guard Jordan Woodard has been, as expected, good for Oklahoma this season when healthy. But, like Texas, the rest of the roster is young. Of the nine players that play 30 percent or more of Oklahoma’s minutes, six are freshmen or sophomores, and sophomore starter Christian James has been up-and-down. The Sooners limped into Big 12 play losers of four of their final five non-conference games, including a surprising home loss to Memphis. The Big 12 start hasn’t been any better. After a three-point loss at TCU last night, OU is 0-2 in the league, has lost five-straight and six of its last seven.
Woodard is good, but this season’s load is probably going to be too tough for him to carry. And he’s missed the last three games with a leg injury.
Are Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU better, or are they a product of their schedules?
Prior to league play:
Kansas State’s strength of schedule: 346
Texas Tech’s strength of schedule: 350
TCU’s strength of schedule: 259
Kansas State has beaten just one team ranked better than No. 150 – Texas. Of Texas’ Tech’s 11 wins prior to Big 12 play, eight were against teams rated No. 229 or worse; TCU had more to lean on in the form of three top 100 wins (two against a bad Washington club that's not in the top 100 anymore) before the conference slate, but it was drilled at SMU by 15 points.
I think all three are better teams relative to their previous season. Kansas State returned a lot of players, has a legit go-to-scorer, is led by two seniors, and played team defense better than anyone in the league last year. It looked like it belonged at Kansas last night. TCU upgraded its coach and talent significantly. Texas Tech doesn’t have a single freshmen or sophomore that’s played a minute out of 12 players this year, and it is the oldest power-five hoops team, which showed when it kept its cool at home against West Virginia. But right now all three are at least a little inflated because they haven’t been tested often.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
If you could focus on the game and not the endless discussion about Jabrill Peppers (keep in mind Florida State was down to its fourth-string safeties for most of the game while preseason All-American Derwin James watched from the sidelines), the Orange Bowl delivered arguably the best bowl game of the season. Players made plays all over the field, in every way imaginable, all night long, and two college football giants proved what we expected from them – they were both good football teams in 2015-16. It wasn’t the cleanest game, but it was one of the most entertaining, back-and-forth affairs we’ve seen in a while. With all the conversation surrounding the importance of bowl games and what they mean, it was nice to see two big boy programs go at it, and pour their hearts into it.
Then a couple of days later, the Rose Bowl basically matched it. If you read this column regularly, you know how high I am on USC redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold. He cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the country with a perfect, 10-for-10 fourth quarter to lead USC to 17 fourth-quarter points, which erased a 14-point deficit against Penn State.
Darnold has the physical tools, and flirts with dual-threat status. However, what stands out most is how instinctive he is in the pocket, and how willing he is to keep his eyes up when moving to look for open players, or players to throw open. Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will have his work cut out for him when Texas travels to Los Angeles in just about eight months.
Unfortunately, the Sugar Bowl didn’t deliver, and instead the conversation after Oklahoma’s win was about Joe Mixon and Brent Musberger. The former was seen at one point pumping up an Auburn crowd chanting, reportedly, “he hits women” and the latter sounded like a barbaric buffoon when discussing Mixon’s woman-beating past the first time, and like an arrogant and defiant grandfather, the kind that doesn’t have a filter anymore, the second time when he “apologized.”
Rather than offer up a take that’s not as good, I’ll direct you to what Pablo Torre said on Around the Horn yesterday.
As for next week’s national championship game, Clemson can beat Alabama. Clemson has the defensive line and linebacker group to prevent Alabama from simply running the ball all game, and has the receiver talent to stretch the field, which is where Alabama is most vulnerable on defense. If Deshaun Watson plays a B+ game or better, Clemson will win. He’ll have to use his legs to do it, though, because Clemson’s offensive line will have issues.
--- NFL rapid fire:
If the Cowboys make the Super Bowl, they will have earned it because the NFC is filled with dangerous challenges. The Packers lack talent and are thin in key spots, but Aaron Rodgers is playing better than anyone in the NFL currently. The Giants have, obviously, given the Cowboys problems already. Seattle is always a tough matchup this time of the year, and Atlanta can score with anyone.
Meanwhile, the Patriots appear to be staring at a yellow brick road heading to Houston. The Texans and Dolphins will enter the playoffs with quarterbacks that are either backups or have been benched recently, and the Raiders could be forced to start their third-string quarterback. Pittsburgh has the offense to give New England issues, but its defense, particularly the secondary, is a question mark. Kansas City has the defense to create a close game, but then there’s the whole Tom Brady at home versus Alex Smith thing.
--- NBA rapid fire:
Remember when the Clippers owned everyone on defense to begin the season? They’re now No. 10 in defensive rating, and have lost six of their last seven. They’re sliding into the “pretenders” category quickly.
Speaking of defense, the Warriors now lead the league in defensive rating and adjusted defensive rating with the Spurs trailing closely behind. The Rockets? They’re No. 16, and less than two percentage points away from the top 10. When Clint Capela returns, the defense will get a boost.
Utah hit a mammoth homer when it drafted Rudy Gobert. He leads the NBA in true shooting percentage, defensive rating, defensive win shares, is No. 2 in offensive rating, and is in the top six in both rebounding percentage and block percentage.
8) Anything and everything
--- The Classic Vinyl channel on Sirius XM is so good it makes getting the service incredibly tempting.
--- For those of you that live in San Antonio or frequent it, Babyoil and I – yes, the illustrious OB duo was back together again – checked out The Friendly Spot. The food was good and well-priced; the beer list is extensive; and the television situation and outdoor seating was different, and cool.
--- Pleased to hear and read all the positive reviews for Pinkerton’s BBQ in Houston, which recently opened and is the vision and product of my friend Grant. If you’re in Houston, get there soon and try out anything and everything on the menu and grab a drink from the unique bar.
--- Each time it comes on HBO, I'm reminded that the first Batman is the best Batman.
---
9) The best, non-sports thing I read this week
This one was published in May, but a list of the best work from 2016 needs to include it: The day we discovered our parents were Russian spies.
1) All about alignment
During Tom Herman’s introductory press conference, he mentioned the words “aligned” or “alignment” or “aligning” seven times. When he was asked about learning from Urban Meyer, he mentioned those words. When he was asked about UT President Greg Fenves and UT Athletics Director Mike Perrin, he said those words. Working for David Bailiff at Texas State when Herman received his first chance to be an offensive coordinator? Aligned. On what swayed him to come to Texas? Alignment.
If you want to understand Herman and his vision as the Texas head coach, it starts with alignment. He said as much throughout his introduction at nearly every opportunity.
But Herman’s final staff hires spoke the loudest about his alignment vision.
Before you critique and analyze Herman’s staff, now that it’s completed, you must first understand his vision and what he values most. In order for he and his staff to successful relay their messages about anything and everything Texas football, he believes all of those messages must be aligned. And because Herman is so details-obsessed, he’s thought of all of those messages, and where they come from.
In order for the alignment philosophy to work, Herman’s entire staff has to not only understand the method to the madness, but implement it too. And there’s no time for Herman to play the role of teacher for both coaching staff and football roster. This is Texas. There’s no time to waste. No one knows that more and better than Herman, and his coaching staff won't lack the familiarity and chemistry that his predecessor's did.
That’s why it’s paramount to Herman that he not only surrounds himself with people that understand his schematic philosophy and are familiar with what he expects, but also that his coaching staff fully understands what it means to be aligned. There can’t be any breaks in the message-delivery process because that means a leak in the system, and there can’t be any weak links when it comes to putting in the kind of work Herman expects.
Is it fair for some Texas fans to be skeptical about the recent hire of Tim Beck as offensive coordinator? Of course. He doesn’t arrive at Texas after being at Ohio State and Nebraska without a few question marks, although the fan reaction from the Buckeyes and Huskers, especially the latter, represents the delusional and fanatical aspects of fans more so than the realistic. Don’t laugh, Texas fans. Y’all do it too.
Anyway, just like it was at Ohio State this season, the offense at Texas will be the head coach’s offense. And it’s another example of Herman taking complete control of his program. The offense is his offense just like Texas is his football team; he’s not leaving anything to chance by not having his influence over everything that happens. By assembling a coaching staff that he knows deeply, and that gets him, Herman puts himself in the best position to control his program.
He hired a staff that he’s not only familiar with and that’s familiar with what he expects, but one that will allow his staff and its message-delivery to be best aligned. If you believe Herman will be successful at Texas, it means you believe in his methods, and his final coaching staff hires represented best how much he values those methods. But maybe more importantly, his hires showed he has a plan and he aspires to have full control of his program.
If Herman is going to succeed at Texas, it won't be because of his coordinator hires. Instead, it’ll be because he and his plan worked, and his plan makes it certain that he is in charge of everything about Texas.
2) Offenses statistically that Beck was a part of
Nebraska 2011
S&P+ Overall Offense: 37th
FEI Overall Offense: 33rd
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 56th
S&P+ Passing Offense: 41st
Notes: In his first year as Nebraska’s offensive coordinator, Beck ran the ball with Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead more often than he threw it by a wide margin. Those two accounted for 39 total touchdowns.
Nebraska 2012
S&P+ Overall Offense: 8th
FEI Overall Offense: 32nd
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 3rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 15th
Notes: With an improved Martinez as a passer, Nebraska attacked more through the air in 2012. Losing Burkhead about midway through the year probably played into that a little, but Martinez posted a 141.6 rating with 23 touchdowns through the air (12 interceptions) and 10 more on the ground. Nebraska was still a team that ran the ball a lot more than it threw it, but there was more of a passing attack that season.
In Nebraska’s four losses that season it scored 30 points or more.
Nebraska 2013
S&P+ Overall Offense: 46th
FEI Overall Offense: 76th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 23rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 60th
Notes: It’s funny now to read comments from some of the Nebraska faithful about Beck after looking back at the 2013 season. Not only were Husker fans expecting a Heisman run from Martinez in 2013, but USA Today’s December 2012 Watch List included the Nebraska quarterback at No. 8 on the list just ahead of Teddy Bridgewater and Tajh Boyd.
Martinez hurt his foot the first week of the season, and tried to play through it until it was too much the second half of the UCLA game. He started the year with nine touchdowns and one interception through the first three games. An attempted comeback against Minnesota proved too difficult, and he was lost for the season.
Nebraska then bounced back and forth between senior Ron Kellogg III and redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong, who attended Cibolo Steele in Texas and was recruited by Beck.
Nebraska 2014
S&P+ Overall Offense: 28th
FEI Overall Offense: 36th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 23rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 41st
Notes: Nebraska rode Armstrong, then a redshirt sophomore, and future NFL running back Ameer Abdullah on offense. The duo accounted for 51 total touchdowns, and Nebraska again ran the ball way more than it threw it. In his final game at Nebraska, a 45-42 loss against USC in the Holiday Bowl, Beck watched Armstrong throw for 381 yards with three touchdowns and another score on the ground.
Ohio State 2015
S&P+ Overall Offense: 14th
FEI Overall Offense: 10th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 8th
S&P+ Passing Offense: 26th
Notes: Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett basically split the year at quarterback, and Ezekiel Elliott ran for 23 touchdowns in an offense that featured the run more than the pass.
Ohio State 2016
S&P+ Overall Offense: 23rd
FEI Overall Offense: 16th
S&P+ Rushing Offense: 3rd
S&P+ Passing Offense: 64th
Notes: The public conversation from Ohio State fans and those around the program suggests the offense was far worse than the numbers say. Truth is Ohio State was just a very young team with an average offensive line and a quarterback that lost confidence and lacked down-the-field accuracy. And the truth is, like 2015, it was Urban Meyer’s offense. But still it was one of the better offenses in the country that did a good job of trying to feature its playmakers at their strengths. For example, take junior RB/do-it-all stud Curtis Samuel, who touched the ball 171 times with almost an even split in catches and rushes.
Conclusion: Based on his track record at previous places, the two things that arguably stood out the most were dual-threat quarterbacks, and an offense feeding and featuring its best players non-stop, especially on the ground.
Again, like stated in the first section, it’s fair to have questions about Beck. But, again, this offense at Texas will be Herman’s offense, and he’ll have someone he trusts and someone he’s on the same page with calling the shots. That person, Beck, has been a part of successful offenses in each of his last six seasons.
3) Stan Drayton checks all the boxes
If he was the only coach hired yesterday, Stan Drayton would have generated more attention, and would be lauded as the home run hire he is. Drayton checks off all the boxes, and represents, truly, an elite hire at his position. When both Carlos Hyde and Ezekiel Elliott retweet a news release about a coach being hired, you know that coach is respected and good at what he does.
In addition to those two NFL backs, Drayton also coached Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard, who trailed only Elliott on the NFL rushing list. Add in running backs like Brian Westbrook, Jeremy Langford in 2015, Jerious Norwood in 2004 at Mississippi State, and DeShawn Wynn at Florida, and Drayton’s list of running backs that thrived under his watch is very impressive. Throw in that he’s regarded and has the track record of an elite recruiter, and it’s pretty much impossible to find a negative in this hire.
Both Beck and Drayton represent the kind of top-notch recruiters Herman needed to round out his staff with, and Drayton is the type of name that can go anywhere in the country and recruit the elites. If Elliott wins the NFL MVP this season, it would mean that Drayton signed two future NFL MVPs out of high school with the other being Cam Newton at Florida.
4) Under Armour and Army All-American Game thoughts
Texas fans should be excited by what recent commitment Toneil Carter showed during last Sunday’s game. Not only did the Rivals250 running back out of Langham Creek (Houston) run between the tackles, he also was used out of the backfield often as a receiver, which included a big catch deep down the field. Carter has the size needed to run power and inside zone, and he also has the vision, patience, and burst to make plays on the outside with the top end speed to be a home run threat. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pushing for playing time immediately at Texas.
North Shore (Houston) four-star defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson tied the sack record at the Under Armour All-American Game, and was a constant force off the edge. He’s definitely on the lean and skinny side, but with his length, quickness, and motor Chaisson looks like a Rivals100 defensive end. It’s hard to find defensive ends with his speed and length combination that can also do things like use his hands effectively when rushing, throw spin moves at tackles, and look totally at home standing up before the snap before using his agility and quickness to beat defenders.
In San Antonio at the Army All-American Game practices, recent Texas offensive line commitment Derek Kerstetter held his own during the first two days. Kerstetter, who said he measured at 6-5, 297 pounds but looked to be closer to 6-4, won more one-on-one reps than he lost. Although he worked both at right tackle and right guard, Kerstetter looks more comfortable at guard where his feet and lack of length profile better. He showed an understanding of how to engage defenders, establish quality hand position, and then use a powerful base during one-on-ones, and during team sessions, he looked comfortable as a pulling guard and in combo blocking situations. It would be a surprise if Kerstetter cracks the two-deep during his freshmen season, but he looks like a prospect that could start at guard later in his career.
I don’t get the impression Texas has a good shot at getting into Rivals250 receiver Jamire Calvin’s recruitment late and coming away victorious, but he showed why Texas offered. On the small side, Calvin is elusive in the open field, a solid route-runner, and has big, strong hands. The Los Angeles product could do damage in the right system at the next level.
Lancaster (Lancaster) receiver Omar Manning looked terrific physically; he looked like someone that runs the 200-meter in college with size, stride length and lean muscle. I don’t know if he’s great at one thing as a receiver prospect, but he’s very well-rounded.
Other thoughts on guys Texas isn’t in on:
--- Running back Najee Harris, an Alabama commitment, is the No. 1 overall prospect, and I think there’s a sizable gap between him and No. 2. He’s as special of a running back prospect as I’ve ever seen in person.
--- This is going to string for Longhorn fans, but after seeing them all again up close Baron Browning, Walker Little, and Jeffrey Okudah all look like top 15 prospects overall. Okudah, who will likely end up at Ohio State, has a lot of traits that remind me of Jalen Ramsey, and Little looked like the best offensive lineman in the country.
--- Cam Akers is going to step into the role vacated by Dalvin Cook’s upcoming NFL departure, and has the talent to put together a similar career. He’ll probably start day one at Florida State, and is that good.
--- Whoever signs Chuck Filiaga has a lot of work to do. The physical attributes are there, but he was routinely beat, and dominated, during the first two days.
--- Five-star Clemson commitment Hunter Johnson looked like the top QB at the Army practices, especially when it comes to physical tools. I expected more arm strength and arm action from highly-touted signal callers Dylan McCaffrey and Jake Fromm; both threw a bit of an unsure football that lacked some zip, and came out late during 7-on-7 sessions. DeSoto product and future TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson is a project as a thrower.
CLICK HERE for all of Rivals.com’s Army All-American Game coverage, including videos of one-on-ones.
5) If Texas is going to keep its head above water in Big 12 play…
It needs win tonight at home against Oklahoma State, and must win two of its next three games (at Iowa State and TCU at home) before playing West Virginia, at Kansas, and at Baylor back-to-back-to-back. All three of those teams are ranked No. 7 or better overall by KenPom.com.
Not only does Texas need tonight’s game because it’ll be one of the “easiest” – the only two teams not ranked in the KenPom.com top 40 in the Big 12 are Texas and Oklahoma - Big 12 games it has this season, but it also desperately needs to feel that winning feeling again after going 3-7 in its last 10 with four of those losses being by five points or less, which were all in December.
Oh, and as 2017 point guard Matt Coleman very likely nears a decision in less than two weeks, Texas could use a win or two to show him.
6) Big 12 conference hoops is off and rolling, and…
Now that we’re into January and the conference schedule, the grind for Big 12 coaches is truly about to begin. Smart’s most challenging season of his head coaching career is only going to get tougher from here on out. It’s safe to say the Big 12 will again compete to be the best hoops conference in the nation. But what else is known about the conference?
There is no debate. These teams are good – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
After losing in overtime to a good Indiana team in Hawai’i to begin the season, Kansas is on a 13-game winning streak. The Jayhawks are led by two good, veteran guards and boast depth, and the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect has been Player of the Year good. Losing freshman big Udoka Azubuike for the season hurts, but bigs Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg have both rebounded at an elite level. Kansas has just one weakness: It is nearly dead last (336th) nationally in free throw percentage.
Interestingly, Kansas was pushed to the limit by TCU in Fort Worth, and Kansas State should have forced overtime if not for Kansas getting the benefit of five steps before a shot on the eventual game-winner last night.
Against Texas, Kansas State scored 0.97 points per possession, shot 44.4 percent from two-point range, and 25.0 percent from three. Against Kansas, those numbers were, respectively, 1.22, 60.0, and 33.3. Frank Mason, Devonte’ Graham, and Josh Jackson are all really good, but they’re being asked to play 35-plus minutes right now, and Kansas' defense isn't great.
Arguably the biggest surprise in college hoops this season is Baylor, who is a perfect 13-0 with wins over Oregon, VCU, Xavier, Louisville, and Michigan State. Baylor is experienced, passes the ball as well as anyone, and has a good inside-outside balance with an elite shot-blocker in its zone defense. Only question facing Baylor as it enters Big 12 play: Can it win on the road? The Bears were terrific in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, but have played just one actual road game, which resulted in them hammering Oklahoma.
Despite winning at Virginia and playing Illinois and Temple, West Virginia has played one of the nation’s easiest schedules, per KenPom.com (302nd out of 351). However, the Mountaineers are for real. They knew exactly who they are, which is an aggressive, attacking, pressing team that turns teams over at the nation’s highest rate, crashes the offensive glass hard, and does a great job of not turning the ball over. They’re beatable, as Texas Tech proved in Lubbock last night with a game-winning three in overtime. But they’re also capable of completely dictating the style and pace of a game and blowing anyone not named Kansas out of the gym.
They have great point guards, but how good are Iowa State and Oklahoma State?
In his first season as head coach at Oklahoma State, Brad Underwood’s Cowboys are improved from last season, and sophomore point guard Jawun Evans, who took an official visit to Texas before signing with Oklahoma State in the fall, has been as good as any guard in the league. Oklahoma State picked up an impressive road win at Wichita State, but was blasted by North Carolina and Georgetown in neutral site games, and lost its Big 12 opener at home to West Virginia by 17 points.
The Cowboys play as fast as anyone in the country, thanks to Underwood’s aggressive defensive style, and shoot it well from deep (yes, Phil Forte is still in school). However, they also foul as much as anyone in the country (Wichita State shot 47 free throws in a loss!), get crushed on the offensive glass by opposing teams, and are just average when it comes to shooting percentages on defense.
Georges Niang and Jameel McKay are gone from Iowa State, but the beer flowed endlessly in Ames, Iowa when point guard Monte Morris announced he’d return for his senior season after playing almost, literally, every single minute for his team last season. Plus, the Cyclones start five seniors, and four of them can really shoot the rock.
However, Iowa State has played five games against teams ranked 250 or worse, and is 2-3 in its “real” games this season after coming from behind to beat Texas Tech at home last week. The Gonzaga (neutral) and Cincinnati (home) losses were extremely close, but Iowa smacked Iowa State by 14 recently.
Texas’ rival from north of the Red River feeling a similar pain.
Senior guard Jordan Woodard has been, as expected, good for Oklahoma this season when healthy. But, like Texas, the rest of the roster is young. Of the nine players that play 30 percent or more of Oklahoma’s minutes, six are freshmen or sophomores, and sophomore starter Christian James has been up-and-down. The Sooners limped into Big 12 play losers of four of their final five non-conference games, including a surprising home loss to Memphis. The Big 12 start hasn’t been any better. After a three-point loss at TCU last night, OU is 0-2 in the league, has lost five-straight and six of its last seven.
Woodard is good, but this season’s load is probably going to be too tough for him to carry. And he’s missed the last three games with a leg injury.
Are Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU better, or are they a product of their schedules?
Prior to league play:
Kansas State’s strength of schedule: 346
Texas Tech’s strength of schedule: 350
TCU’s strength of schedule: 259
Kansas State has beaten just one team ranked better than No. 150 – Texas. Of Texas’ Tech’s 11 wins prior to Big 12 play, eight were against teams rated No. 229 or worse; TCU had more to lean on in the form of three top 100 wins (two against a bad Washington club that's not in the top 100 anymore) before the conference slate, but it was drilled at SMU by 15 points.
I think all three are better teams relative to their previous season. Kansas State returned a lot of players, has a legit go-to-scorer, is led by two seniors, and played team defense better than anyone in the league last year. It looked like it belonged at Kansas last night. TCU upgraded its coach and talent significantly. Texas Tech doesn’t have a single freshmen or sophomore that’s played a minute out of 12 players this year, and it is the oldest power-five hoops team, which showed when it kept its cool at home against West Virginia. But right now all three are at least a little inflated because they haven’t been tested often.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
If you could focus on the game and not the endless discussion about Jabrill Peppers (keep in mind Florida State was down to its fourth-string safeties for most of the game while preseason All-American Derwin James watched from the sidelines), the Orange Bowl delivered arguably the best bowl game of the season. Players made plays all over the field, in every way imaginable, all night long, and two college football giants proved what we expected from them – they were both good football teams in 2015-16. It wasn’t the cleanest game, but it was one of the most entertaining, back-and-forth affairs we’ve seen in a while. With all the conversation surrounding the importance of bowl games and what they mean, it was nice to see two big boy programs go at it, and pour their hearts into it.
Then a couple of days later, the Rose Bowl basically matched it. If you read this column regularly, you know how high I am on USC redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold. He cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the country with a perfect, 10-for-10 fourth quarter to lead USC to 17 fourth-quarter points, which erased a 14-point deficit against Penn State.
Darnold has the physical tools, and flirts with dual-threat status. However, what stands out most is how instinctive he is in the pocket, and how willing he is to keep his eyes up when moving to look for open players, or players to throw open. Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will have his work cut out for him when Texas travels to Los Angeles in just about eight months.
Unfortunately, the Sugar Bowl didn’t deliver, and instead the conversation after Oklahoma’s win was about Joe Mixon and Brent Musberger. The former was seen at one point pumping up an Auburn crowd chanting, reportedly, “he hits women” and the latter sounded like a barbaric buffoon when discussing Mixon’s woman-beating past the first time, and like an arrogant and defiant grandfather, the kind that doesn’t have a filter anymore, the second time when he “apologized.”
Rather than offer up a take that’s not as good, I’ll direct you to what Pablo Torre said on Around the Horn yesterday.
As for next week’s national championship game, Clemson can beat Alabama. Clemson has the defensive line and linebacker group to prevent Alabama from simply running the ball all game, and has the receiver talent to stretch the field, which is where Alabama is most vulnerable on defense. If Deshaun Watson plays a B+ game or better, Clemson will win. He’ll have to use his legs to do it, though, because Clemson’s offensive line will have issues.
--- NFL rapid fire:
If the Cowboys make the Super Bowl, they will have earned it because the NFC is filled with dangerous challenges. The Packers lack talent and are thin in key spots, but Aaron Rodgers is playing better than anyone in the NFL currently. The Giants have, obviously, given the Cowboys problems already. Seattle is always a tough matchup this time of the year, and Atlanta can score with anyone.
Meanwhile, the Patriots appear to be staring at a yellow brick road heading to Houston. The Texans and Dolphins will enter the playoffs with quarterbacks that are either backups or have been benched recently, and the Raiders could be forced to start their third-string quarterback. Pittsburgh has the offense to give New England issues, but its defense, particularly the secondary, is a question mark. Kansas City has the defense to create a close game, but then there’s the whole Tom Brady at home versus Alex Smith thing.
--- NBA rapid fire:
Remember when the Clippers owned everyone on defense to begin the season? They’re now No. 10 in defensive rating, and have lost six of their last seven. They’re sliding into the “pretenders” category quickly.
Speaking of defense, the Warriors now lead the league in defensive rating and adjusted defensive rating with the Spurs trailing closely behind. The Rockets? They’re No. 16, and less than two percentage points away from the top 10. When Clint Capela returns, the defense will get a boost.
Utah hit a mammoth homer when it drafted Rudy Gobert. He leads the NBA in true shooting percentage, defensive rating, defensive win shares, is No. 2 in offensive rating, and is in the top six in both rebounding percentage and block percentage.
8) Anything and everything
--- The Classic Vinyl channel on Sirius XM is so good it makes getting the service incredibly tempting.
--- For those of you that live in San Antonio or frequent it, Babyoil and I – yes, the illustrious OB duo was back together again – checked out The Friendly Spot. The food was good and well-priced; the beer list is extensive; and the television situation and outdoor seating was different, and cool.
--- Pleased to hear and read all the positive reviews for Pinkerton’s BBQ in Houston, which recently opened and is the vision and product of my friend Grant. If you’re in Houston, get there soon and try out anything and everything on the menu and grab a drink from the unique bar.
--- Each time it comes on HBO, I'm reminded that the first Batman is the best Batman.
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9) The best, non-sports thing I read this week
This one was published in May, but a list of the best work from 2016 needs to include it: The day we discovered our parents were Russian spies.
