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Donny's Out of his Element but Dustin's 9 Dude-abiding thoughts are not...(evaluations, camp, K.T.)

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
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Apr 26, 2005
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Wooten, Austin
I encourage all of you to please support your local businesses and restaurants if you can. Please. Maybe that means ordering delivery or pick-up and leaving a big tip; maybe that means buying some gift cards from your favorite local spots to use once this all dies down; maybe that means getting merchandise from your favorite places to wear and help with some free advertising in the process.

Whatever you can do, big or small, our friends in the community need it.

Something I've always wondered... was Walter Sobchak a Dodgers fan? He makes reference to Sandy Koufax. I'd like to picture him screaming at how bad home plate umpires have been this year at calling balls and strikes.

Interested in using this space to advertise your business? E-mail me: Dustin@orangebloods.com

Alright, the writing…

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(Photo: Tarik Black's Twitter account)

1) Evaluations and late adds...
Are Tarik Black and Jaylan Ford going to be the next good evaluation additions by Tom Herman to turn into future starters or better? Beginning with his transition class, Herman and his staff have shown a keen eye for talent late in the recruiting process and a strong conviction in their evaluations. Take a look at some of the high school, JUCO or graduate additions late in the recruiting process since Herman arrived:

(Note: the high school players included weren’t consensus top national recruits like Joseph Ossai, Alfred Collins, etc. because those are easy evaluations)

2017
Cade Brewer
Derek Kerstetter
Marqez Bimage
Gary Johnson
Sam Cosmi


Johnson was a highly-rated JUCO product, but the hit rate on JUCO prospects isn’t very high. At least that would be my educated guess. Where would this offensive line be without Cosmi and Kerstetter? Fortunately for Texas, it doesn’t have to find out. I truly think Bimage was in for a big season, but he chose to opt out. When healthy, Brewer has been a contributor.

2018
Moro Ojomo (you could nitpick at this one, but he was a three-star)
Christian Jones
Joshua Moore
Calvin Anderson
Tre’ Watson


I believe Ojomo is a future all-conference player and NFL pick, and Jones could be the current favorite to start at right tackle. Speaking of Jones, he perfectly illustrates the evaluation skill of the Texas staff, specifically Herb Hand, because that guy was the definition of tough evaluation – limited football background, offered and rated by many as a defensive lineman, a player who required some dreaming on the projection.

If not for legal issues, Moore would have probably played a lot of snaps last season. Anderson wasn’t under the radar, but it was a big late recruiting win and Watson ended up being a quality role player.

2019
Juwan Mitchell
Parker Braun


Mitchell might lead the team in attempts to transfer and airline miles flying the NCAA Transfer Portal, but he’s an integral part to the defense. Braun wasn’t spectacular, but he was a solid 2019 starter.

2020
Jaylan Ford
Kelvontay Dixon
Tarik Black


Black has been mentioned to me more than any other receiver in camp thus far, and it’s been obvious in practice he’s quickly earned the trust of Sam Ehlinger. When Ford committed, some Texas fans shrugged their shoulders. However, there was a lot to like on tape, and he could end up being an important piece as early as this season considering the depth at linebacker.

Say whatever you will about Herman’s recruiting, but he and his staff have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to, for lack of a better phrase, evaluation adds.

2) You should be excited about…
--- When Vernon Broughton announced his commitment to Texas, the Orangebloods staff thought it was such a big deal that during a very nice staff dinner – thanks to the bossman – we had our laptops with us ready to publish and tweet stories, podcasts, etc. At the time, Texas hadn’t landed a defensive lineman like him since Malcom Brown. And the Longhorns then added to the class during National Signing Day Part 2 with another big-time, much-needed defensive lineman, Alfred Collins.

Although they have more competition for snaps and spotlight, even at places like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia, programs that have loaded up on elite defensive line talent for successive years, young freshmen as talented as Broughton and Collins usually create at least a little bit of buzz.

So, those two young players already turning heads strongly implies a few things: they’re going to contribute, not just play; their talent is as advertised; Texas would be in a rough place if it missed on both.

--- Who would have thought the second Saturday scrimmage we’d be discussing the depth and talent at tight end instead of receiver? If I were you, I wouldn’t be concerned – at least not yet – about the receiver group. But I would be excited about the tight ends. Texas using 12 personnel isn’t something I anticipate seeing much. However, Texas has recruited well at the position, and Malcolm Epps is a guy I’ve heard mentioned throughout camp as making plays as a receiver.

3) You should be concerned about…
--- I heard this saying from my dad more than a few times while growing up: “You’re up shit creek without a paddle.” The Longhorns better say their prayers, pour lots of rum for whatever the offensive line equivalent to Jobu is, and hope with all their strength the offensive line stays healthy. Because if it doesn’t, they’re up shit creek without a paddle.

4) I’m a little surprised we haven’t heard more about…
When talented new quarterbacks arrive, they’re often the shiny new toys capable of grabbing even a seasoned coach’s attention like a Victoria’s Secret model strolling down Manhattan’s crowded Fifth Avenue. And no other position in football creates hyperbole quite like backup quarterbacks.

Besides an occasional Hudson Card mention here or there and a whisper about Casey Thompson and Ja’Quinden Jackson, I’m surprised we haven’t heard more about the guys beyond Sam Ehlinger.

5) K.T. Turner and Texas…
The Longhorns desperately needed to fill one of their assistant coach openings – because while it’s not official, everyone expects Jai Lucas to leave for Kentucky – with a good, established coach who has Texas roots, can recruit, and can develop. That’s what they did when they reached an agreement with SMU associate head coach K.T. Turner.

Turner will bring a track record of recruiting and developing at SMU, and the national hoops sources I’ve communicated with believe Texas checked all the boxes it needed. Say what you will about Larry Brown, but no one argues he's a very bright hoops mind. He was a big fan of Turner. SMU currently has three players in the NBA, and I’m told Turner was the lead recruiter for all of them – Semi Ojeleye, Sterling Brown and Shake Milton.

I hope to have more on this in the War Room, among other hoops recruiting tidbits because the class could soon grow, but in the meantime, I think this guy could soon become a name to follow for Texas. Kentucky just offered, but I’ve heard Turner has an excellent relationship with the MoKan AAU program, which is the team Milton and Ojeleye played for:

6) This guy deserves his own section…


Mark Payton made his MLB debut this week as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, and as you can see he found the hit column for the first time last night in impressive fashion. An all-time great at Texas and a remarkable model of consistency, Payton just missed a homer when he drilled a double – 99.6 MPH off the bat – to dead center at Miller Park.

As a Longhorn, Payton experienced everything. He went to Omaha as a freshman in 2011, missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons, and then in 2014 went back to Omaha as a key piece of one of the most competitive, truest embodiment of “team” I’ve ever covered.

I can’t tell you how many times Payton had to come out and speak to the media after all those losses in 2012 and 2013 because he was one of the player leaders, faces of the program and one of the few guys who could do it. There were a lot of losses those two awful seasons. But he never once did anything other than come out and face the music like a professional and a leader. And I think ups-and-downs he experienced at Texas helped him stick with his journey to become a big leaguer because he could have easily said “screw this” and left the game.

In 2019 with the A’s, Payton jacked 30 bombs and hit .334/.400/.653 in AAA. And he couldn’t get a shot in the bigs. Then, he was selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Reds only to be one of the last cuts before the season began. At 28, it takes a lot of resiliency to keep grinding it out in the minors hoping you’re going to get your shot. It's not a glamours life, and it doesn't pay well for a long time. He finally did. And he deserves it as much as anyone I can think of.

Payton candidly admitted his frustration and described his journey before this season began in an April edition of the Extra Bases podcast:


7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Last night, Lucas Gioltio threw a no-hitter against my beloved Pittsburgh Pirates. Only the Rangers have been more putrid with the bat this season. Watching the Pirates requires a lot of cheap beer so I can yell, “YINZ SUCK!” at the screen. But that shouldn’t take away from how exceptionally dominant Giolito was. He racked up 30 swings and misses. 30!!! And he registered a whiff% of 54%, a truly absurd number. That means when the Pirates swung the bat, they missed over half the time.

Giolito has flirted with an outing like last night before, but it all clicked last night. In the ninth inning, he generated swings and misses multiple times with his changeup and slider and threw his second hardest pitch of the night – 96.6 MPH – to end the game.

A couple years ago, Giolito, selected No. 16 overall by the Nationals in the 2012 MLB Draft, was staring down the ‘bust’ label. In his first full season in 2018 with the White Sox, the big righty couldn’t throw strikes, struck out guys like he had Jaimie Moyer’s stuff, and finished with a 6.13 ERA and 5.56 FIP. A big guy known for a big fastball was throwing his four-seamer 92.4 MPH on average.

Listed at 6-6, 245 pounds, Giolito is, obviously, a big dude. Big dudes often have a long arm action and can have trouble throwing strikes, getting on top of their breaking stuff, and repeating their delivery compared to their shorter, lighter colleagues. Remember Tyler Kolek? In 2014, the Marlins selected the 6-5, 260-pound righty No. 2 overall out of Shepherd High School after he reportedly touched 102 MPH. In 2016, he underwent Tommy John surgery, like Giolito did almost immediately after he was signed, and hasn’t pitched above A+.

In recent years, scouts and MLB personnel have changed the way they think about the classic big, hard-throwing prep arms because the bust rate is rising. Giolito would have fit into that group. Then, he changed. Roll the tape:

2018 PITCHING DELIVERY

2020 PITCHING DELIVERY

2018 arm action and delivery:
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2020 arm action and delivery:
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With a new delivery, and specifically a new arm action, Giolito went from 6.49 K/9 and 4.67 BB/9 in 2018 to 11.62 and 2.90, respectively, in 2019; the big righty followed 0.1 fWAR and a 5.56 FIP with 5.1 fWAR and a 3.43 FIP. Only three starting pitchers had a higher K% in 2019: Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Right now, shorter, cleaner arm action is the hip new kid on the block and it’s how organizations like the Indians keep developing quality starting pitching. Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac acting a fool? Let’s just call up Triston McKenzie, who hasn’t pitched in a professional game since 2018, for his debut and watch him throw 97, despite maybe weighing 165 pounds at 6-5, and then punch out 10 Tigers efficiently. Just a day in the life for the organizations who are investing correctly and developing their pitching.

Pitching development matters a lot. It might matter more than anything in baseball right now. Is it as simple as saying, “hey, this big guy has a really long arm action and needs a delivery change” during the offseason? No. Hell, I can do that. The teams and players who can identify issues and actually develop change and results are going to have a leg up on the competition. While the White Sox unlocked an ace, the Indians keeping developing studs, the Tampa Bay Rays fixed 6-9 Tyler Glasnow, and the Reds are getting the most out of their arms, the Angels can’t surround one of the game’s greatest players with enough pitching despite investing in it over and over again.

--- Watching the NBA felt like Kevin Bacon in Animal House. Chris Paul closing out crunchtime against the Rockets while Russell Westbrook and his hurt quad watches. Thank you sir, may I have another?! Luka Doncic announcing his superstar arrival, and becoming the talk of the weekend. Thank you sir, may I have another?!

The Rockets went from playing suffocating defense and building insurmountable leads with their three-point shooting to blowing back-to-back games because they committed idiotic turnovers and couldn’t close out a team drilling mid-range jumpers. I think that’s where Houston misses Westbrook the most. In the playoffs, a team often needs someone who can simply get into or near the paint and get a tough, one-on-one bucket; not a stepback three-pointer or a catch-and-shoot opportunity from a role player against a defense playing with more awareness and urgency. Westbrook presents that style of game. Although, I fully acknowledge he could shoot Houston out of a playoff win.

--- Maybe it’s become MLB is in full swing and the NBA playoffs have been excellent. I’ve never been more unprepared for fantasy football, and never lacked more excitement for the NFL season than I do now.

8) Anything and everything…
--- Hurricane Laura is very on-brand for 2020, which means she’s going to be strong, cause a lot of damage and a general pain in the ass. Thinking about all the OB members on the coast near the Texas and Louisiana border. From the NHC:

“Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline.”

Please, take this thing seriously if you could be in harm’s way. None of the current projections expect a sudden turn towards the west, which is good news for Houston and Galveston.

--- Like Ali returning to the ring, I made my triumphant return – yes, you’ll recognize a similar quote from Rounders – to Enchiladas y Mas Thursday. Well, I picked up our to-go dinner and four large margaritas, but you get the point. It was excellent. They didn’t miss a beat. Sipping a very strong margarita while diving into a fajita plato helped restore some of my faith in the world being able to survive 2020.

--- My mother-in-law owns an excellent dance studio, and my sister-in-law is a standout teacher there. They’re up for Austin’s Best of the Best awards. So, I’d appreciate some OB voting love for Shirley McPhail School of Dance under the “Kids and Education” section.

---

--- I want to dive into Bruce Springsteen and The White Stripes, but I'm not sure where to begin. Yes, I know the hits, and a long list of Springsteen songs. But more specifically, what albums should I get into first?

--- Jack is starting to learn Willie is his dog, and it led to some smiles and laughs yesterday.
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9) The best thing I read this week… is from Texas Monthly: The Wildest Insurance Fraud Scheme Texas Has Ever Seen

Bonus read (because it’s behind a paywall and didn’t want to use it as the main one):

The Wall Street Journal: Austin Produced Willie Nelson and Others. Can Its Music Scene Survive Covid-19?
 
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