I encourage all of you to please support your local businesses and restaurants if you can. Please. Maybe that means ordering delivery or pick-up and leaving a big tip; maybe that means buying some gift cards from your favorite local spots to use once this all dies down; maybe that means getting merchandise from your favorite places to wear and help with some free advertising in the process.
Whatever you can do, big or small, our friends in the community need it.
Interested in sponsoring this column or advertising at Orangebloods.com? E-mail Dustin@orangebloods.com
Let’s send some good vibes to The Dude himself, Jeff Bridges. He announced he’s been diagnosed with lymphoma. 2020 remains a gigantic asshole.
Alright, the writing…
1) It's happening again...
Tom Herman was right about defense. It improved versus Baylor. More on that in last night’s Three Things After a Rewatch because there is a bigger issue. Much bigger.
Heading into the season, everyone agreed: The Longhorns were going to go as Sam Ehlinger and the offense, under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, went. Okay, maybe not everyone, but you get the point. Ehlinger entered the season as the all-time leader in total yardage among active players and as or more experienced than any quarterback in the country. Texas finished No. 13 in FEI offense last season and No. 10 in S&P+ offense. This wasn’t a case of being overserved burnt orange Kool-Aid. The reasons for optimism were real.
Maybe this is very on brand for Texas. The moment the defense shows growth, the offense has the rhythm of an overserved groomsman on a wedding dance floor. But UT wishes it had his confidence. The Longhorns better find that confidence and some rhythm quickly because if they’re going to regroup and play their way into the Big 12 title picture, they have to stop this slide on offense before it’s too late. And too late might be a loss weekend since the lack of total team performances has eliminated almost all UT’s margin for error.
The Texas offense did rate very well statistically last season, and does currently, although last season is still baked into those advanced metrics. But during the heart of 2019 Big 12 play, it lost its way and its quarterback lost a lot of his confidence, comfort, and rhythm. Of Ehlinger’s games last season, only one of his top seven passer ratings came after the first four games and before the final two (vs. Texas Tech and the bowl game against Utah). When it was time to win the league, the Texas offense and its quarterback came up short for a multitude of reasons.
Remind you of anything very recently?
Ehlinger lacked comfort and confidence in the pocket against Baylor and the offense had an unsavory vanilla taste. The Longhorns tried to convince themselves they were a better running team by calling 24 more runs, many of them inefficient, than passes despite Baylor blowing coverage assignments multiple times. Remember, this comes after a performance against an awful Oklahoma secondary and average defense that was wretched for three-and-a-half quarters until Ehlinger did a bunch of Ehlinger-in-the-Cotton-Bowl things. Also remember 72 of Ehlinger’s 270 passing yards came on a blown coverage freeing Tarik Black, which helped skew the quarterback’s passer rating.
So, here we are again. The Longhorns have a new offensive coordinator, but they’re experiencing some of the same issues. Why aren’t they improving? They better correct their issues before it’s too late.
2) The concerning trend for Ehlinger…
Entering the 2020 season, Ehlinger was coming off his best statistical season, according to Pro Football Focus, and his career arch suggested another step forward as a senior.
EHLINGER OVERALL OFFENSE GRADE (PFF)
2019: 90.1
2018: 85.7
2017: 66.4
EHLINGER PASSING GRADE (PFF)
2019: 86.9
2018: 81.2
2017: 64.6
His rushing grades in 2018 and 2019 were almost identical, which makes sense given his stats and usage. For Ehlinger, the 2020 season was all about becoming a more consistent passer in a more consistent offense. Yurcich and Herman were tasked with unlocking Ehlinger’s consistency and confidence by putting him in the best, most comfortable position to excel as part of an improved offense.
After five games, that vision is slipping away.
EHLINGER 2020 OFFENSE OVERALL GRADES (PFF)
UTEP: 81.8
TCU: 79.3
Texas Tech: 71.6
Baylor: 68.9
Oklahoma: 60.1
OVERALL: 76.4
EHLINGER 2020 PASSER GRADES (PFF)
UTEP: 82.5
TCU: 78.7
Texas Tech: 66.5
Baylor: 62.9
Oklahoma: 50.3
OVERALL: 70.1
Ehlinger had seven games with a 79.3 or better grade overall in 2019, and nine passer games of 72.9 or better. Here’s the even more worrisome part: including the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Ehlinger has only produced three individual passer scores worse than last week’s 62.9 – at Kansas (2018), at Baylor (2019) and at West Virginia (2019).
3) Where’s the help for the QB?
Sure, it was UTEP, but to open the season Ehlinger’s confidence in the new system looked excellent. He carried himself with the poise of a guy who knew exactly what he was doing and had supreme confidence in what was called and what he was seeing.
Now? Ehlinger is occasionally lacking conviction on throws; is a little out of sync with receivers; isn’t quite comfortable in what he is seeing; is putting his eyes in the wrong place at times to miss wide open receivers in key situations; and isn’t being maximized. Basically, 2019’s Big 12 heart of darkness is reoccurring.
What isn’t helping: among quarterbacks who have started five games this season, Ehlinger leads the nation in times pressured (78 of 218 dropbacks). Over time, that begins to wear a quarterback down. And Texas isn’t doing a whole lot to help. Hell, does Texas even have an identity right now on offense? It wants the establish the run and hang its hat on that. But right now, it’s all hat and no cattle.
Make no mistake, it’s Herman and Yurcich’s job to get the most out of Ehlinger and help create his comfort and success. We’ve seen Ehlinger play at an extremely high level. So, we know it’s in there somewhere. Right now, we’re seeing a senior quarterback searching for confidence and rhythm while leading an offense that lacks an identity and isn’t getting better.
4) Oklahoma State…
Texas is going to need a much better Ehlinger and offense because the Cowboys are for real. Interestingly, they currently rate better on defense (No. 15 in FEI defense and No. 12 in S&P+ defense). Remember that stat above about Ehlinger getting pressured on dropbacks? Yeah, the Texas offensive line better arrive with an elevated performance too or it could be a long day for the Texas offense.
5) Big 12 and college football…
--- Updated F/+ overall rankings at FootballOutsiders.com rank Texas at No. 22 overall.
S&P+ offense: 10th
S&P+ defense: 48th
FEI offense: 22nd
FEI defense: 31st
(note: main difference between the two is S&P+ is play-by-play efficiency while FEI is drive-based. So, it would make sense the Texas defense rates better from a drive standpoint than a play-by-play standpoint right now.)
--- Big 12 F/+ rankings:
No. 10 – Oklahoma
No. 14 – Oklahoma State
No. 22 – Texas
No. 25 – Iowa State
No. 34 – Baylor
No. 39 – TCU
No. 43 – Kansas State
No. 53 – West Virginia
No. 71 – Texas Tech
No. 119 – Kansas
--- After Oklahoma didn’t break much of a sweat to hand Gary Patterson another loss, TCU is now 8-14 in the Big 12 since 2018. It’s lucky it didn’t play SMU. The Longhorns had no business losing to TCU in Austin.
--- Texas is probably lucky it didn’t play Texas Tech with Henry Colombi at quarterback. He followed strong performances at Iowa State and Kansas State with a very efficient, effective dual-threat game in a home win against West Virginia.
--- If you’re curious about the baking at South Florida, the Bulls rank 111th in F/+ overall ranks at FootballOutsiders.com. At 2016’s conclusion, the season before Charlie Strong took over, USF ranked 47th. Then, Strong enjoyed some great cake when USF finished 25th in 2017… 91st in 2018… 103rd in 2019.
--- Following a 4-8 season to begin his head coaching tenure at Cincinnati, Luke Fickell is 25-5. Unsurprisingly, given Fickell’s background as an elite defensive coordinator, Cincinnati rates No. 5 in FEI defense and No. 4 in S&P+ defense.
--- I don’t think this is the year Jim Harbaugh finally breaks through and wins the Big Ten, but the Wolverines look more interesting on offense with Joe Milton at quarterback than they have in long time.
6) Texas Basketball and Baseball…
Earlier this week, ESPN scrapped its plans to hold college basketball non-conference tournaments in Orlando to open the 2020-21 season. It’s an ominous sign for the sport as COVID-19 cases around the country rise and the season is set to tip-off in less than a month. I’d be lying if I said my optimism for Texas completing the Maui/Asheville Invitational is high. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
If I’m making a Texas Baseball lineup projection this second, which I plan to do in a little more detail later this week, righthander Kolby Kubichek would be my projected Sunday starter for Texas.
7) The World Series...
--- Last night, the Dodgers won their first World Series since 1988. Clayton Kershaw finally secured his ring. Mookie Betts blasted a homer. The Kershaw columns predictably found editors late last night, but it’ll be impossible to discuss the 2020 World Series without highlighting two managerial moves.
In the sixth inning with one out and his team leading 1-0, Rays manager Kevin Cash exited his dugout and soon motioned to the bullpen. Blake Snell, who had given up just two hits, no walks and punched out nine of 18 batters he faced, left the mound visibly upset and frustrated with the decision.
Snell entered the game with 21-straight starts of fewer than 6.0 innings. But this wasn’t the Snell of the previous 21 starts. This was the Cy Young winner who was supposed to be the exemption to Tampa Bay’s analytical-based method of pulling starting pitchers before the dreaded third time through the order when the best numbers warn managers of big danger ahead for starters.
Snell wasn’t just performing at a high level. He was as dominant as he’s ever been with an absurdly good whiff percentage of 47% and full command of his four-pitch arsenal. Through his first 73 pitches, Snell threw fastballs harder than 97.0 MPH seven times. He threw just one heater harder than 97.0 MPH during the regular season. According to Baseball Reference, Snell had the highest game score all-time of any World Series starting pitcher who didn’t complete six innings. All-time!
The three guys set to come up for the Dodgers, after Austin Barnes’s routine one-out single into center field, were Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner. To that point, the trio was 0-for-6 with six strikeouts against Snell, who showed no signs of fatigue. Staring toward the mound in joyous disbelief, a weight was lifted off the Dodgers when they watched Snell leave the mound in favor of Nick Anderson. Some LA players even chuckled about it when asked after the win.
Arguably, Anderson has been the best reliever in baseball the last two seasons. But he wasn’t the same guy in the postseason. The hard-throwing righthander, who relies on his four-seam fastball up and breaking ball down, was called upon despite giving up at least one earned run in five-straight appearances. Los Angeles already saw him twice and had more hits (four) than Anderson had strikeouts (three in 2.2 innings), an alarming sign for a pitcher who gave up just five hits in 16.1 regular-season innings.
Betts smacked a fastball up in the zone for a double, a wild pitch led to a run, Betts then scored on a fielder's choice and a one-run lead felt insurmountable for an anemic Tampa Bay offense basically relegated to whatever Randy Arozarena, who was freaking prime Barry Bonds during the postseason, could do. The Rays probably wouldn’t have won game six 1-0, and the real reason they lost the World Series was because they couldn’t hit. Not because Snell was robbed of his masterpiece. However, they let the Dodgers, the MLB’s version of the Buffalo Bills until last night’s final out, off the hook by removing one of the game’s best pitchers on the verge of perhaps his best start of his career as the pressure on the favorites mounted.
The Rays entered the season with the third-lowest payroll in Major League Baseball. Their bullpen was decimated by injuries to key pieces. Yet they had the best record in the American League and made it to game six of the World Series. Make no mistake, the analytical approach they take is an enormous reason why they made it as far as they did and will contend again next season. There isn’t an organization in baseball better at dissecting data and using it to guide all types of baseball decisions. Tampa Bay is consistently ahead of the curve and is forced to mine the data for any edge while other organizations enjoy larger margin of error thanks to much more expensive payrolls.
Ironically, the Dodgers are kind of the Rays but with a lot of money. The original architect of the Tampa Bay analytical and scouting machine runs Los Angeles’s operations now. So, the team across the field in the other dugout is into the numbers many people are blasting today just as much as Tampa Bay. And let’s not forget Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stuck with starting pitchers – hello, Clayton Kershaw narrative – too long in previous World Series appearances. Just days earlier, Roberts pulled Kershaw despite the pitcher disagreeing and his third baseman colorfully voicing his displeasure on the mound. It worked. The Dodgers won.
So, this isn’t and shouldn’t be totally about analytics. It’s about feel and trusting what you’re seeing, and combining the two to guide a decision-making process. Heck, maybe it’s about Anderson entering and not another reliever. The best organizations, and the Rays are certainly included in this, blend the numbers and the scouting eyeballs. Cash erred last night because he ignored his eyeballs and let the computer totally dictate his decision-making; he made a 162-game regular season process decision and not a win-or-go-home World Series decision. How good and valuable is a Cy Young winner if he doesn’t get a longer leash when he's throwing as well as he can?
Sure, the numbers say Snell’s performance, like almost every starting pitcher, gets noticeably worse when he faces a lineup the third time; and Anderson is one of the best, most dominant relievers in the game. You’ll find the most diehard #teammath baseball analysts today pushing back on the idea Cash made the incorrect decision and will shout process > outcome. Hey, I’m on that team too because over the long haul process wins. But to rely only on the numbers implies a standard projection for Anderson, the hitters, and ignores what the numbers were also saying about Snell’s complete dominance. They’ll also say Snell probably would have soon faltered and that a starting pitcher is dealing and dominant until he’s not. And they’re right. But they can’t tell you for sure when or if that would happen. That’s the in-game risk assessment and balancing act for a manager.
The Excel sheets and algorithms don’t account for what is being seen in games. They don’t account for Snell having his best combination of stuff and command in years. They don’t account for Anderson lacking confidence, feel and failing to meet those projections the previous five times he was on the mound. They don’t account for the Dodgers looking totally overmatched. They don’t account for things like pitchers tipping pitches and hitters with slight injuries, new swing issues, fatigue or poor mental approach. If things like confidence and mental approach didn’t matter, teams wouldn’t obsess over makeup reports for prospects. Trust me. I’ve filled out some MLB scouting reports. There is an enormous section for makeup. And while some of the game’s most popular analysts imply the mental competitive side is always linear, the guys playing beg to differ.
The analytics simply provide the best information about what’s projected to happen based on past results and predictive information. In some ways, it’s baseball’s version of playing Blackjack by the book. Tampa Bay has the book memorized and probably deviates less than any team in baseball. Many teams read the exact same book and could have interpreted the data differently or simply chose to go against it. Tampa Bay should have been drunk on Snell’s dominance and thrown the book to the side at least until an actual sign of danger on the field and not in the predictive data free of human context.
--- As for the second managerial move, Dave Roberts removing Justin Turner in the eighth inning last night was a bit peculiar in real time. Immediately after the game, we learned Turner was removed because of a positive COVID-19 test.
MLB implored Turner to isolate. He gave it the middle finger and celebrated on the field with his teammates, removed his mask for photos, kissed his wife, hugged and high-fived teammates and even sat beside his elder manager who beat Hodgkin’s lymphoma years ago.
So, as the Dodgers, many wearing masks, celebrated winning the World Series on the field of a team not even participating in the playoffs in front of about a fifth of the stadium’s capacity, they did so with a player who knew he was a confirmed COVID-19 positive and simply didn’t care. 2020 can’t end soon enough.
8) Anything and everything…
--- After finishing the fourth episode of Parks and Recreation Season 7, I feel much, MUCH better about the show’s season-ending trajectory. Ron using his saxophone to simulate Leslie’s fart noise as she poses is one of my favorite scenes in television history.
---
--- I don’t think anyone in television will measure up to my appreciation for the thinker, talent and person Anthony Bourdain was. But David Chang, in his own unique but at the same time kind of similar way, is starting to rise towards that top. Ugly Delicious is quirky, entertaining, different, and informative. But Chang’s reporter-type approach to seeking information leads to some really thought-provoking episodes that intersect food, people and culture, which was Bourdain’s amazing gift.
--- I miss going to the movies. It forces you to unplug from the world and becoming totally immersed in a different one. Well, assuming the movie is good. I can't simulate that at home where there are distractions. Perhaps going to the theater is simply the best reason for turning your phone off.
--- Jack asked for more downfield passing because the offense made him sleepy last Saturday.
With a newborn in the house, we sometimes find Willie sleeping in interesting places.
This one this morning was a lot more comfortable.
9) The best thing I read this week… is from The Atlantic: The Tree That Could Help Stop the Pandemic
Whatever you can do, big or small, our friends in the community need it.
Interested in sponsoring this column or advertising at Orangebloods.com? E-mail Dustin@orangebloods.com
Let’s send some good vibes to The Dude himself, Jeff Bridges. He announced he’s been diagnosed with lymphoma. 2020 remains a gigantic asshole.
Alright, the writing…
1) It's happening again...
Tom Herman was right about defense. It improved versus Baylor. More on that in last night’s Three Things After a Rewatch because there is a bigger issue. Much bigger.
Heading into the season, everyone agreed: The Longhorns were going to go as Sam Ehlinger and the offense, under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, went. Okay, maybe not everyone, but you get the point. Ehlinger entered the season as the all-time leader in total yardage among active players and as or more experienced than any quarterback in the country. Texas finished No. 13 in FEI offense last season and No. 10 in S&P+ offense. This wasn’t a case of being overserved burnt orange Kool-Aid. The reasons for optimism were real.
Maybe this is very on brand for Texas. The moment the defense shows growth, the offense has the rhythm of an overserved groomsman on a wedding dance floor. But UT wishes it had his confidence. The Longhorns better find that confidence and some rhythm quickly because if they’re going to regroup and play their way into the Big 12 title picture, they have to stop this slide on offense before it’s too late. And too late might be a loss weekend since the lack of total team performances has eliminated almost all UT’s margin for error.
The Texas offense did rate very well statistically last season, and does currently, although last season is still baked into those advanced metrics. But during the heart of 2019 Big 12 play, it lost its way and its quarterback lost a lot of his confidence, comfort, and rhythm. Of Ehlinger’s games last season, only one of his top seven passer ratings came after the first four games and before the final two (vs. Texas Tech and the bowl game against Utah). When it was time to win the league, the Texas offense and its quarterback came up short for a multitude of reasons.
Remind you of anything very recently?
Ehlinger lacked comfort and confidence in the pocket against Baylor and the offense had an unsavory vanilla taste. The Longhorns tried to convince themselves they were a better running team by calling 24 more runs, many of them inefficient, than passes despite Baylor blowing coverage assignments multiple times. Remember, this comes after a performance against an awful Oklahoma secondary and average defense that was wretched for three-and-a-half quarters until Ehlinger did a bunch of Ehlinger-in-the-Cotton-Bowl things. Also remember 72 of Ehlinger’s 270 passing yards came on a blown coverage freeing Tarik Black, which helped skew the quarterback’s passer rating.
So, here we are again. The Longhorns have a new offensive coordinator, but they’re experiencing some of the same issues. Why aren’t they improving? They better correct their issues before it’s too late.
2) The concerning trend for Ehlinger…
Entering the 2020 season, Ehlinger was coming off his best statistical season, according to Pro Football Focus, and his career arch suggested another step forward as a senior.
EHLINGER OVERALL OFFENSE GRADE (PFF)
2019: 90.1
2018: 85.7
2017: 66.4
EHLINGER PASSING GRADE (PFF)
2019: 86.9
2018: 81.2
2017: 64.6
His rushing grades in 2018 and 2019 were almost identical, which makes sense given his stats and usage. For Ehlinger, the 2020 season was all about becoming a more consistent passer in a more consistent offense. Yurcich and Herman were tasked with unlocking Ehlinger’s consistency and confidence by putting him in the best, most comfortable position to excel as part of an improved offense.
After five games, that vision is slipping away.
EHLINGER 2020 OFFENSE OVERALL GRADES (PFF)
UTEP: 81.8
TCU: 79.3
Texas Tech: 71.6
Baylor: 68.9
Oklahoma: 60.1
OVERALL: 76.4
EHLINGER 2020 PASSER GRADES (PFF)
UTEP: 82.5
TCU: 78.7
Texas Tech: 66.5
Baylor: 62.9
Oklahoma: 50.3
OVERALL: 70.1
Ehlinger had seven games with a 79.3 or better grade overall in 2019, and nine passer games of 72.9 or better. Here’s the even more worrisome part: including the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Ehlinger has only produced three individual passer scores worse than last week’s 62.9 – at Kansas (2018), at Baylor (2019) and at West Virginia (2019).
3) Where’s the help for the QB?
Sure, it was UTEP, but to open the season Ehlinger’s confidence in the new system looked excellent. He carried himself with the poise of a guy who knew exactly what he was doing and had supreme confidence in what was called and what he was seeing.
Now? Ehlinger is occasionally lacking conviction on throws; is a little out of sync with receivers; isn’t quite comfortable in what he is seeing; is putting his eyes in the wrong place at times to miss wide open receivers in key situations; and isn’t being maximized. Basically, 2019’s Big 12 heart of darkness is reoccurring.
What isn’t helping: among quarterbacks who have started five games this season, Ehlinger leads the nation in times pressured (78 of 218 dropbacks). Over time, that begins to wear a quarterback down. And Texas isn’t doing a whole lot to help. Hell, does Texas even have an identity right now on offense? It wants the establish the run and hang its hat on that. But right now, it’s all hat and no cattle.
Make no mistake, it’s Herman and Yurcich’s job to get the most out of Ehlinger and help create his comfort and success. We’ve seen Ehlinger play at an extremely high level. So, we know it’s in there somewhere. Right now, we’re seeing a senior quarterback searching for confidence and rhythm while leading an offense that lacks an identity and isn’t getting better.
4) Oklahoma State…
Texas is going to need a much better Ehlinger and offense because the Cowboys are for real. Interestingly, they currently rate better on defense (No. 15 in FEI defense and No. 12 in S&P+ defense). Remember that stat above about Ehlinger getting pressured on dropbacks? Yeah, the Texas offensive line better arrive with an elevated performance too or it could be a long day for the Texas offense.
5) Big 12 and college football…
--- Updated F/+ overall rankings at FootballOutsiders.com rank Texas at No. 22 overall.
S&P+ offense: 10th
S&P+ defense: 48th
FEI offense: 22nd
FEI defense: 31st
(note: main difference between the two is S&P+ is play-by-play efficiency while FEI is drive-based. So, it would make sense the Texas defense rates better from a drive standpoint than a play-by-play standpoint right now.)
--- Big 12 F/+ rankings:
No. 10 – Oklahoma
No. 14 – Oklahoma State
No. 22 – Texas
No. 25 – Iowa State
No. 34 – Baylor
No. 39 – TCU
No. 43 – Kansas State
No. 53 – West Virginia
No. 71 – Texas Tech
No. 119 – Kansas
--- After Oklahoma didn’t break much of a sweat to hand Gary Patterson another loss, TCU is now 8-14 in the Big 12 since 2018. It’s lucky it didn’t play SMU. The Longhorns had no business losing to TCU in Austin.
--- Texas is probably lucky it didn’t play Texas Tech with Henry Colombi at quarterback. He followed strong performances at Iowa State and Kansas State with a very efficient, effective dual-threat game in a home win against West Virginia.
--- If you’re curious about the baking at South Florida, the Bulls rank 111th in F/+ overall ranks at FootballOutsiders.com. At 2016’s conclusion, the season before Charlie Strong took over, USF ranked 47th. Then, Strong enjoyed some great cake when USF finished 25th in 2017… 91st in 2018… 103rd in 2019.
--- Following a 4-8 season to begin his head coaching tenure at Cincinnati, Luke Fickell is 25-5. Unsurprisingly, given Fickell’s background as an elite defensive coordinator, Cincinnati rates No. 5 in FEI defense and No. 4 in S&P+ defense.
--- I don’t think this is the year Jim Harbaugh finally breaks through and wins the Big Ten, but the Wolverines look more interesting on offense with Joe Milton at quarterback than they have in long time.
6) Texas Basketball and Baseball…
Earlier this week, ESPN scrapped its plans to hold college basketball non-conference tournaments in Orlando to open the 2020-21 season. It’s an ominous sign for the sport as COVID-19 cases around the country rise and the season is set to tip-off in less than a month. I’d be lying if I said my optimism for Texas completing the Maui/Asheville Invitational is high. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
If I’m making a Texas Baseball lineup projection this second, which I plan to do in a little more detail later this week, righthander Kolby Kubichek would be my projected Sunday starter for Texas.
7) The World Series...
--- Last night, the Dodgers won their first World Series since 1988. Clayton Kershaw finally secured his ring. Mookie Betts blasted a homer. The Kershaw columns predictably found editors late last night, but it’ll be impossible to discuss the 2020 World Series without highlighting two managerial moves.
In the sixth inning with one out and his team leading 1-0, Rays manager Kevin Cash exited his dugout and soon motioned to the bullpen. Blake Snell, who had given up just two hits, no walks and punched out nine of 18 batters he faced, left the mound visibly upset and frustrated with the decision.
Snell entered the game with 21-straight starts of fewer than 6.0 innings. But this wasn’t the Snell of the previous 21 starts. This was the Cy Young winner who was supposed to be the exemption to Tampa Bay’s analytical-based method of pulling starting pitchers before the dreaded third time through the order when the best numbers warn managers of big danger ahead for starters.
Snell wasn’t just performing at a high level. He was as dominant as he’s ever been with an absurdly good whiff percentage of 47% and full command of his four-pitch arsenal. Through his first 73 pitches, Snell threw fastballs harder than 97.0 MPH seven times. He threw just one heater harder than 97.0 MPH during the regular season. According to Baseball Reference, Snell had the highest game score all-time of any World Series starting pitcher who didn’t complete six innings. All-time!
The three guys set to come up for the Dodgers, after Austin Barnes’s routine one-out single into center field, were Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner. To that point, the trio was 0-for-6 with six strikeouts against Snell, who showed no signs of fatigue. Staring toward the mound in joyous disbelief, a weight was lifted off the Dodgers when they watched Snell leave the mound in favor of Nick Anderson. Some LA players even chuckled about it when asked after the win.
Arguably, Anderson has been the best reliever in baseball the last two seasons. But he wasn’t the same guy in the postseason. The hard-throwing righthander, who relies on his four-seam fastball up and breaking ball down, was called upon despite giving up at least one earned run in five-straight appearances. Los Angeles already saw him twice and had more hits (four) than Anderson had strikeouts (three in 2.2 innings), an alarming sign for a pitcher who gave up just five hits in 16.1 regular-season innings.
Betts smacked a fastball up in the zone for a double, a wild pitch led to a run, Betts then scored on a fielder's choice and a one-run lead felt insurmountable for an anemic Tampa Bay offense basically relegated to whatever Randy Arozarena, who was freaking prime Barry Bonds during the postseason, could do. The Rays probably wouldn’t have won game six 1-0, and the real reason they lost the World Series was because they couldn’t hit. Not because Snell was robbed of his masterpiece. However, they let the Dodgers, the MLB’s version of the Buffalo Bills until last night’s final out, off the hook by removing one of the game’s best pitchers on the verge of perhaps his best start of his career as the pressure on the favorites mounted.
The Rays entered the season with the third-lowest payroll in Major League Baseball. Their bullpen was decimated by injuries to key pieces. Yet they had the best record in the American League and made it to game six of the World Series. Make no mistake, the analytical approach they take is an enormous reason why they made it as far as they did and will contend again next season. There isn’t an organization in baseball better at dissecting data and using it to guide all types of baseball decisions. Tampa Bay is consistently ahead of the curve and is forced to mine the data for any edge while other organizations enjoy larger margin of error thanks to much more expensive payrolls.
Ironically, the Dodgers are kind of the Rays but with a lot of money. The original architect of the Tampa Bay analytical and scouting machine runs Los Angeles’s operations now. So, the team across the field in the other dugout is into the numbers many people are blasting today just as much as Tampa Bay. And let’s not forget Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stuck with starting pitchers – hello, Clayton Kershaw narrative – too long in previous World Series appearances. Just days earlier, Roberts pulled Kershaw despite the pitcher disagreeing and his third baseman colorfully voicing his displeasure on the mound. It worked. The Dodgers won.
So, this isn’t and shouldn’t be totally about analytics. It’s about feel and trusting what you’re seeing, and combining the two to guide a decision-making process. Heck, maybe it’s about Anderson entering and not another reliever. The best organizations, and the Rays are certainly included in this, blend the numbers and the scouting eyeballs. Cash erred last night because he ignored his eyeballs and let the computer totally dictate his decision-making; he made a 162-game regular season process decision and not a win-or-go-home World Series decision. How good and valuable is a Cy Young winner if he doesn’t get a longer leash when he's throwing as well as he can?
Sure, the numbers say Snell’s performance, like almost every starting pitcher, gets noticeably worse when he faces a lineup the third time; and Anderson is one of the best, most dominant relievers in the game. You’ll find the most diehard #teammath baseball analysts today pushing back on the idea Cash made the incorrect decision and will shout process > outcome. Hey, I’m on that team too because over the long haul process wins. But to rely only on the numbers implies a standard projection for Anderson, the hitters, and ignores what the numbers were also saying about Snell’s complete dominance. They’ll also say Snell probably would have soon faltered and that a starting pitcher is dealing and dominant until he’s not. And they’re right. But they can’t tell you for sure when or if that would happen. That’s the in-game risk assessment and balancing act for a manager.
The Excel sheets and algorithms don’t account for what is being seen in games. They don’t account for Snell having his best combination of stuff and command in years. They don’t account for Anderson lacking confidence, feel and failing to meet those projections the previous five times he was on the mound. They don’t account for the Dodgers looking totally overmatched. They don’t account for things like pitchers tipping pitches and hitters with slight injuries, new swing issues, fatigue or poor mental approach. If things like confidence and mental approach didn’t matter, teams wouldn’t obsess over makeup reports for prospects. Trust me. I’ve filled out some MLB scouting reports. There is an enormous section for makeup. And while some of the game’s most popular analysts imply the mental competitive side is always linear, the guys playing beg to differ.
The analytics simply provide the best information about what’s projected to happen based on past results and predictive information. In some ways, it’s baseball’s version of playing Blackjack by the book. Tampa Bay has the book memorized and probably deviates less than any team in baseball. Many teams read the exact same book and could have interpreted the data differently or simply chose to go against it. Tampa Bay should have been drunk on Snell’s dominance and thrown the book to the side at least until an actual sign of danger on the field and not in the predictive data free of human context.
--- As for the second managerial move, Dave Roberts removing Justin Turner in the eighth inning last night was a bit peculiar in real time. Immediately after the game, we learned Turner was removed because of a positive COVID-19 test.
MLB implored Turner to isolate. He gave it the middle finger and celebrated on the field with his teammates, removed his mask for photos, kissed his wife, hugged and high-fived teammates and even sat beside his elder manager who beat Hodgkin’s lymphoma years ago.
So, as the Dodgers, many wearing masks, celebrated winning the World Series on the field of a team not even participating in the playoffs in front of about a fifth of the stadium’s capacity, they did so with a player who knew he was a confirmed COVID-19 positive and simply didn’t care. 2020 can’t end soon enough.
8) Anything and everything…
--- After finishing the fourth episode of Parks and Recreation Season 7, I feel much, MUCH better about the show’s season-ending trajectory. Ron using his saxophone to simulate Leslie’s fart noise as she poses is one of my favorite scenes in television history.
---
--- I don’t think anyone in television will measure up to my appreciation for the thinker, talent and person Anthony Bourdain was. But David Chang, in his own unique but at the same time kind of similar way, is starting to rise towards that top. Ugly Delicious is quirky, entertaining, different, and informative. But Chang’s reporter-type approach to seeking information leads to some really thought-provoking episodes that intersect food, people and culture, which was Bourdain’s amazing gift.
--- I miss going to the movies. It forces you to unplug from the world and becoming totally immersed in a different one. Well, assuming the movie is good. I can't simulate that at home where there are distractions. Perhaps going to the theater is simply the best reason for turning your phone off.
--- Jack asked for more downfield passing because the offense made him sleepy last Saturday.
With a newborn in the house, we sometimes find Willie sleeping in interesting places.
This one this morning was a lot more comfortable.
9) The best thing I read this week… is from The Atlantic: The Tree That Could Help Stop the Pandemic
