ADVERTISEMENT

Donny's Out of his Element, but Dustin's 9 dude-abiding thoughts are not... (Why I'm picking Texas)

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
Gold Member
Apr 26, 2005
102,255
139,741
113
39
Wooten, Austin
They gave the Dude a sponsor…

Very excited to say this week’s column is brought to you by WYLD GALLERY:

5LA0Enc.png

CHECK OUT AND SHOP WYLD GALLERY ONLINE AND ADD TO YOUR COLLECTION

WYLD GALLERY is a downtown Austin gallery featuring traditional and contemporary fine art by Native American Artists.

The gallery is the part-time retirement gig for Ray Donley, an Austin attorney who has been a lurker on OB since 2002. Ray has been collecting Native American art since the 1980s. He has made friends with a number of Oklahoma Native American Artists, and enjoys ribbing them for their fanatical support of a football team that honors the land thieves who took their land.

Contemporary Native American paintings are bold, bright, and never boring. And they will look great on the walls of your office or home. Many of the artists in the gallery have pieces in the permanent collections of museums, including the Smithsonian.

Please check out these unique, vibrant paintings at www.WYLD.GALLERY. Treat yourself to some cool art because everyone has that one wall in their home that could use some more character.


Alright. It’s LSU week.

wX21MNs.jpg


1) I made up my mind about this game a long time ago…
Since the 2018 season ended and attention began shifting towards the 2019 campaign after spring football, my mind has been made up. When it came time to make a pick for Texas versus LSU, I was going to pick Texas.

Well, we’re now just days ahead from a matchup of two top 10 teams and fan bases that truly believe a win in this gargantuan non-conference contest could propel their programs to new heights. And my pick isn’t changing.

Has my confidence in the pick wavered? A little. LSU is really good, really talented, and appeared to be much better organized and effective on offense to open the season.

The truth about this matchup is the only certainties are beers, liquor and good food will be consumed by thousands tailgating; a kickoff will happen; there will be more recruits in attendance than you can count; someone will win the game. Oh, and these two teams are going to set the example of what a physical college football game looks like. Anyone that steps onto the field weak or timid will be exposed quicker than beers disappear at the Orangebloods Tailgate.

So, why pick Texas?

Tom Herman is 13-2-1 ATS (against the spread) as an underdog. Obviously, Texas could cover the spread, which has ballooned to -6 some places in favor of LSU, and still lose the game. There are no rewards or special bullet points on the schedule for that. This isn’t Texas A&M we’re discussing. However, Herman is 10-6 SU (straight up) as an underdog, which is an outstanding record considering the situation.

Now, consider this: Texas lost by three at USC in 2017 as an underdog, by five against OU in 2017, by three in overtime against Oklahoma State in 2017, and by one against West Virginia last season. Again, there are no rewards on the schedule for close losses and the business of moral victories is closed in Austin. But Herman could easily have been a stunning 14-2 straight up as an underdog.

So, history tells us if Herman’s team is an underdog, the opposition better get ready for a war because his team is either going to win or is going to be right in it until the very end. And I can't ignore history, which strongly suggests this isn't coincidence.

Oh, and this game is at Texas, and Texas has the better quarterback. I’m not throwing shade at Joe Burrow, who is better than numbers suggest (more on him in a little) and a good QB. Herman knows. He recruited him. But I’ll take Sam Ehlinger in that head-to-head discussion, especially at home.

Why do Herman’s teams perform so well when they’re an underdog? I’m not quite sure. He’s been asked this question in the past, and doesn’t have a specific answer. My educated guess: because there’s basically no chance the opposing team will play harder and more physical than Herman’s group, and their attention to detail is paramount. What I do know for sure, though, is history tells us, most recently in the Sugar Bowl against another SEC giant, is betting against Herman isn't a good idea.

2) What will surprise people against LSU…
In the offseason, most people asked would have probably picked the LSU offensive line to have a big advantage over Texas’s defensive line. However, the LSU offensive line was banged up some this preseason, and after watching the Texas defensive line, I think some people are in for a surprise.

It was Louisiana Tech, but it was hard not to notice various defensive linemen standing out in multiple ways: Malcolm Roach, Ta’Quon Graham, Keondre Coburn, Moro Ojomo, Jacobi Jones, Marqez Bimage, and T’Vondre Sweat all had at least one very positive moment, and the group as a whole made an impact both against the run and pass. The Texas defensive line looked quick, strong, on the right page assignment-wise, and fresh. I think the impact it makes in Saturday night’s game will surprise.

3) Should Texas be concerned about any specific areas?
--- I don’t think Texas fans should be concerned at all about the offense because it looked like, after the first few series, a pretty vanilla gameplan. And the Texas offensive line appeared ready for a tough challenge. But upon review of the game, Sam Ehlinger could have been sharper, and seemed a little surprised by the amount of blitzing La Tech did. Ehlinger will need to be very sharp at the line of scrimmage before the snap, which is normally a strength.

--- Speaking of work at the line of scrimmage, when I watched Joe Burrow last season I came away impressed with his ability to get LSU into the right plays before the snap. Texas had some communication and zone coverage breakdowns against Louisiana Tech, and will need to tighten those up against LSU.

Burrow is an underrated athlete that can make all the throws, is tough and smart. If he can consistently get LSU into manageable third downs, Texas is going to have a tough time getting off the field. With Texas’s unique formations and blitzes comes the need to make sure everyone is on the same page in coverage.

--- Speaking of Burrow, I’m not sure how much this stat matters because LSU appears to be on a new page offensively, but it certainly is interesting:


--- Oh, running back depth. Yeah. Texas really needs Keaontay Ingram to stay healthy.

4) Ranking the Big 12 after week one (updated S&P+ ranking in parentheses)
Oklahoma (No. 8)
Texas (No. 23)
Baylor (No. 28)
Oklahoma State (No. 33)
Iowa State (No. 47)
TCU (No. 38)
Texas Tech (No. 31)
Kansas State (No. 48)
West Virginia (No. 73)
Kansas (No. 108)

Iowa State, West Virginia, and Kansas all struggled at home against FCS schools, which doesn’t paint a positive picture about the road ahead. The Cyclones had major issues on offense, and I firmly believe too many underestimated how difficult life would be without David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler. Kansas is still Kansas until proven otherwise. West Virginia is breaking in a new coach, new quarterback and managed a putrid 3.87 yards per play at home against James Madison.

Oklahoma State’s offense looked good, which shouldn't be a surprise. But its defense is ranked 114th in S&P+ right now. Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Tech all played complete games in week one, and easily handled opponents. TCU wasn’t great on offense (No. 88 in S&P+), but won by 32 points over a FCS school. Jalen Hurts scored a ton of touchdowns, and the Oklahoma offense is again going to be a force under Lincoln Riley. How good is the defense? It started strong against Houston, and gave up 14 of 31 points in the fourth quarter.

This week, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are all favored by 20 or more or play a FCS program. Kansas plays Coastal Carolina, but is just an eight-point favorite. The big matchups are, obviously, Texas and LSU, and West Virginia goes on the road to play a Missouri program that slipped in week one after many projected it to compete for its division title in the SEC.

5) College Football after week one…
--- Hugh Freeze coaching from a hospital bed might be the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen in college football. If the Jackson State mascot, who made headlines this week for being flagged for celebrating a touchdown, decided to go line up at receiver and run a route, I’d still think Freeze was easily more bizarre. Just go home, man. You coach at Liberty now, and you said you’re lucky to be alive. It’s Liberty. Stay home.

Anyone have any questions?


--- After a third-down stop midway through the third quarter, Oregon had a 94.0 % chance to beat Auburn, according to ESPN’s win probability. The Ducks led 21-6 against a true freshman quarterback, and their quarterback is expected by many to be an early first-round pick. Auburn won 27-21, and Mario Cristobal looked like a coordinator acting as head coach.

--- After getting absolutely blasted by Wisconsin, despite trying to get on the board with a late field goal and a fake punt, South Florida ranks No. 99 in S&P+.

--- Speaking of former Texas head coaches, I thoroughly enjoyed seeing Mack Brown win is opener at North Carolina and then break out some dance moves in the locker room. It seems he's loosened up and learned he doesn't need to be paranoid about his actions or his program. Have fun. And he is.

--- Despite Oregon blowing a great opportunity for a signature non-conference win, the Pac-12 looks like it might be some fun this year, which matters to all of us because we need something entertaining to watch late Saturday night. Jacob Eason started strong at Washington; Mike Leach is up to his usual tricks at Washington State; Colorado isn’t very good, but is fun to watch with one of the best receivers in the country; Utah went on the road and pounded BYU, and looks like it’s for real.

Stanford and USC, who play each other this week, were both dealt some tough injury news. USC quarterback J.T. Daniels is out for the year. Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello is questionable for Saturday’s game, and former five-star Walker Little is out for a few weeks. But Stanford still has enough to make some noise in the conference, and didn’t slip against Northwestern for a change.

If I had a top 10 vote…
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Georgia
4) Ohio State
5) Oklahoma
6) LSU
7) Utah
8) Texas
9) Notre Dame
10) Auburn

6) Texas Baseball and Texas Hoops…

Remember when the government went to the podium and basically declared it knew all it needed to know in order to bring the corruption in college basketball to an end? Yeah, it has changed its mind. This reminds me of a trip to Las Vegas: you arrive all gassed up with a wallet full of cash ready to take on the world, and by the end of the trip you’re out of steam, money, and ready to get home.

What does this mean for college basketball? Well, a lot of coaches, particularly some big-name head coaches, are feeling a little better about life right about now, and soon, it’ll be business as usual on the recruiting trail.

--- On the diamond, the Longhorns are beginning voluntary group workouts. There’s not a whole lot to discuss right now besides a couple batting practice rounds, but a name I’ve heard is garnering some attention is Zach Zubia. Zubia spent a lot of time this offseason on his body, and also becoming more athletic in the batter’s box in order to better tap into his immense raw power.

Oh, and if you’re wondering about Troy Tulowitzki and Huston Street, it sounds like the two have already injected a noticeable amount of energy and focus into the roster. When they speak, passion pours out and everyone listens.

7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe
--- Zeke Elliott is a really, really good football player. Obviously, he’s one of the best running backs in the NFL, and the Cowboys are in a competitive window right now that won’t stay open long. But NFL rosters in recent years have suggested committing that much money to a running back isn’t good business. It’s not about Zeke. It’s about the position, and the available production that can be found from cheaper draft picks or undrafted free agents.

The following running backs are set to make less than $2 million this year, and will all make significant contributions for their team:

Damien Wiliams, Sony Michel, Peyton Barber, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, Derrius Guice, David Montgomery, Royce Freeman, David Singletary, Alvin Kamara, Kenyon Drake, Justice Hill, James Conner, Kalen Ballage, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Jaylen Samuels, Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, Phillip Lindsay, Justin Jackson, Austin Ekeler, Matt Breida.

An argument can be made the Cowboys built around Elliott, and needed to commit the money. Fine. However, when NFL teams are building rosters right now, many are able to find similar production much cheaper. Every year the NFL draft produces immediate impact at the running back position beyond the first round. Heck, even undrafted free agents make big splashes in some instances. That’s money better spent.

---
Major League Baseball continues to look silly for trying to convince people the baseball isn’t different. I’m not an old man yelling at clouds about home runs. They’re not ruining baseball. The sport’s decision-makers now have more available information to use, and, surprise, hitting homers is good for winning.

But MLB does need to address the issue to create a more accurate, true representation of talent and ability. Imagine trying to scout players in AAA right now when the ball is flying out of the yard at an alarming rate. It would be like scouting college players with the old aluminum bats.

--- Mike Trout recently passed Derek Jeter in career fWAR, and now ranks No. 47 all time. He just recently turned 28 years old, and has played only 1,195 games compared to Jeter’s 2,747. By the end of the season, Trout will probably pass Johnny Bench and move into 43rd place. Next season, he’ll likely move ahead Ken Griffey, Jr., Brooks Robinson, Jeff Bagwell, Pete Rose, and Roberto Clemente.

Soon, top prospect Jo Adell will join Trout in the lineup. Shohei Ohtani will be able to pitch next season. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning give the Angels promising young arms, and the organization desperately needs them because right now the leader in pitching fWAR is Tyler Skaggs, who tragically passed away earlier this season. Albert Pujols’s contract doesn’t come off the books until after the 2021 season, but the way he’s running suggests he might need a scooter to get around the bases. So, perhaps retirement is on the horizon. The Angels can only hope.

Surely the Angels won’t waste the prime of one of the game’s greatest players, right? Because what Trout is doing doesn’t happen often.

--- The Angels could learn from the other organization in Los Angeles. After the Dodgers lost Max Muncy, they promoted Gavin Lux. All he did prior was hit .347/.421/.607 in the minors this season, which made him one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.

The Dodgers simply reload. It would be cruel if the organization can’t soon turn this into a World Series because what they’ve done with player development and scouting is as good as it gets. Right now, the Astros and Dodgers are seemingly in their own tier in organizational success and status; they both seem to be ahead of the curve in their respective ways, and are again favorites in their league to make the World Series.

8) Anything and everything
--- As I’ve said before, my wife watches a lot of television. Yes, she watches too much television. Anyway, she somehow started watching The O.C. again because her Instagram followers like her video recaps of what life was like in the 90’s. I never watched The O.C., but after seeing parts of it, I can say this with full confidence: it is one of the most ridiculous and dumb shows I’ve ever seen in my life. It’s like someone decided to come up with the most outrageous and nearly unbelievable storylines for rich high school kids and use them each episode.

--- When I was a UT student in 2005 and Texas won at Ohio State, Guadalupe near campus was closed for a while as fans, mostly students, flooded the street and celebrated. If Texas beats LSU this weekend, I imagine the celebration will be more intense, include thousands more people, and easily result in more than just one road closure.

--- Last weekend, I had my first taste of White Claw. Yes, I managed to participate in Clawgust before time ran out. The hype is real. On a hot summer day, it would be easy to take the White Claw express to funkytown, hang out for a while, and then probably enter a world of pain after consuming too many because they taste so good, and go down so smoothly.

My only nitpick is it has too much sugar. And making your own version with Tito’s and Topo Chico or sparking water (Big Swig’s Chile Mango is a new favorite) is both better and healthier, especially in avoiding a hangover. Avoiding a hangover is crucial.

--- Florida Man solved hurricanes.


--- Willie spent his Labor Day weekend getting spoiled. Besides naps, there’s nothing he loves more than belly rubs, and they never get old. He’s still chasing every squirrel he sees and is now going after the neighbor’s cat on occasion, which I’ve warned him could go poorly.
YIE57XZ.jpg


9) This week’s read… is from the Atavist Magazine: Masterpiece Theater (A Dutch gallerist made thousands of forgeries and passed them off as the work of real artists. When he was caught, a new con began.)

And this week’s featured art from the WYLD GALLERY includes two awesome pieces that can be purchased at the gallery website:

I'm not an expert, but I know there is probably a special someone in your life that would love this as a gift. Could be Husband of the Year material.

oAOUFGw.jpg


CHECK OUT THIS PAINTING AT WYLD GALLERY

h9fbRdG.jpg


CHECK OUT THIS PAINTING AT WYLD GALLERY
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT

Go Big.
Get Premium.

Join Rivals to access this premium section.

  • Say your piece in exclusive fan communities.
  • Unlock Premium news from the largest network of experts.
  • Dominate with stats, athlete data, Rivals250 rankings, and more.
Log in or subscribe today Go Back