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1) A look at the Pros and Cons of both QB candidates
Come on. Did you really think I was going to write about the defensive ends or running back rotation?
After ducking for cover in a bomb shelter when the War Room was posted last Thursday night, I’ve emerged to find the world habitable post-Tyrone Swoopes report. If the infamous “Red Banquet” night was a 10 on the OB Meltdown Scale, we just survived an 8 that was on par with the hours following Texas’ wretched performance against Iowa State this past season. Sure, I still approach the internet landscape in a hazmat suit, but life is still chugging along. You could say that “chugging along” is a fair way to describe Swoopes’ QB career at Texas.
Rather than add gasoline to the already raging fires that focus on aspects like practice reps, and more, I thought I’d direct my brainpower towards a comparative analysis: the pros and cons of each quarterback.
The old saying goes, “the most popular guy on campus is the backup quarterback,” or something like that. The reaction to the mere possibility that Swoopes starts in just under three weeks wasn’t that surprising, although much of it was over-the-top, especially when you consider these were Texas fans discussing a Texas player. But the senior quarterback does have more than a couple of things that fall into the “Pros” category.
As much as some Texas fans can’t bring themselves to process the thought or acknowledge its possibility, there is a legitimate chance that he’s a better quarterback than last season, and that he’s the best option for Texas to start under center, at least for the first game of the year.
However, there’s also a legitimate chance that Shane Buechele is the better option even if Swoopes has improved. Let’s take a look at where they differ, and offer more perspective as it relates to the starting position:
2) Pros and Cons for both Swoopes and Buechele
Tyrone Swoopes (senior)
PROS
Durability
- This one doesn’t require a lot of explanation. Swoopes is listed at 6-4, 249 pounds and it’s called the 18-wheeler Package for a reason. Although every program wants to keep its quarterback healthy, there isn’t the level of concern about using Swoopes in running plays as there is with most other quarterbacks because he is so big.
Experience
- Swoopes enters his senior after appearing in 28 games, and he’s attempted 490 career passes. Tough road and neutral environments aren’t unfamiliar to him. Sure, all of that experience hasn’t been sunshine and puppies, but having two full seasons-plus of experience absolutely matters.
Arm strength
- In terms of arm strength, there isn’t a throw on the field Swoopes can’t make, which includes all the vertical throws Sterlin Gilbert would like to incorporate in his offense, and the outs and hitches from the opposite hash across the field against man coverage.
Work-ethic
- Texas fans can say what they want about Swoopes’ performances, but no one has ever questioned his work-ethic and his dedication to doing whatever was required in order to help the team. Now on his fourth offensive coordinator entering his senior season, he’s picked up the new system at a solid level and continues to compete no matter how many times he’s been shuffled in-and-out of roles.
Running ability
- Again, this is a quarterback that was used as a runner as part of a special package of plays for part of last season, and he excelled at it. He’s not incredibly fast or elusive as an open field runner, but he can get out of the pocket, or step up in the pocket, and be a threat to gain yards with his legs.
CONS
Inconsistency
- Swoopes has enjoyed some outstanding performances, like in 2014, in an environment that can swallow quarterbacks and spit them out, against Oklahoma when he was arguably the best player on the field and racked up 384 total yards with three touchdowns. But he’s also had some horrendous performances, like later that year against TCU when he threw four interceptions and followed that up with a measly 57 passing yards in the bowl game against Arkansas.
What Texas needs most from the position isn’t a star. It needs a consistently above-average performer that doesn’t beat his own team. Swoopes hasn’t proven able to do that yet.
Accuracy
- Much like his overall performances, Swoopes’ accuracy can really fluctuate. At times, he shows the ability to set his feet and deliver an accurate ball all over the field, and then at other times he shows the tendency to get away from his mechanics and completely miss on intermediate throws and overthrow deep balls.
Responding to pressure, repeating mechanics
- There have been times throughout his career when Swoopes gets rattled due to pressure, loses his ability to repeat his mechanics, and the game gets sped up on him, which leads to inconsistent decision-making. This improve some in 2015, but the 2015 sample size of throws isn’t that large.
Shane Buechele (freshman)
PROS
Instincts
- Yes, we only have open practices, a spring game, and high school to go off of, but Buechele exudes instinctive, natural ability on the field. He hasn’t yet performed at a high enough level consistently to run away with the QB job, but there is no denying that Buechele moves, acts, and thinks like a natural on the football field.
Competitiveness
- We’ve all heard the stories about calling up receivers to throw late at night, being a “gym rat” and being very competitive at things like ping pong. Buechele’s genes are rooted in sports throughout his family, and he’s been around a professional baseball player and coach all his life. In an open practice, Buechele tossed a bad pick and immediately followed that with three good throws the very next plays.
Mechanics
- It’s rare for a freshman quarterback to show up with the understanding of and ability to implement mechanics like Buechele does, particularly his usage of his core to make his delivery quick, easy, and increase arm strength. The product of Arlington Lamar displays quality, advanced mechanics that can be easily repeated.
Feet and head
- This could probably be lumped into the “mechanics” section above, but Buechele’s understanding of how to move a defense with his head is advanced for his age. And he routinely moves his feet well, and that puts him constantly in balance, which can aid accuracy.
Natural touch
- Another thing that falls under "things you can't teach" is Buechele's touch. He spins a tight spiral that acts as a soft ball for players to catch, and has shown the ability to naturally drop a ball into the bucket down the field, even when he's on the run.
CONS
Inexperience
- Until Buechele takes the field in a college game, that aspect of his football career is going to be new to him, and how good or how poor he performs is impossible to predict until it happens. There is no substitute for experience, and no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to quarterbacks. How would Buechele handle playing Notre Dame with all of college football’s eyeballs watching and the weight of the Texas program on his shoulders? No one knows.
Size
- He’s listed at 6-1, 191 pounds and both the height and weight are probably generous. Are there times when his height could affect him at the line of scrimmage? Sure, but time has shown being 6-0 doesn’t prevent a QB from being a good performer. However, the true freshman’s frame could make his durability an issue because he is so small, and does need added weight and muscle. How would he respond physically to the big hits that will absolutely come with taking snaps during a live game? That’s not something that can be simulated in practice.
Arm strength
- This isn’t a huge negative, but asking Buechele to make throws from the opposite field hash across the field is asking him to do too much right now. During an open practice, he tried to dig for extra arm strength and force one of those throws and it was easily picked off.
Consistency/production
- Again, we’re going off only practices here, and we only were able to see two of them. So a lot of this is reading between the lines, and also what sources are saying. That being said, it’s fair to say that if Buechele was consistently producing at a high level in practice, he’d be leading the QB race right now. And that’s reportedly not the case at the moment. With no game tape to go off of, this makes his practice reps more important.
3) Discussion about the decision
In an ideal world, a Texas quarterback would constantly take the field and perform at a high level for Charlie Strong. But it’s not an ideal world, and the Texas head coach is faced with a tough decision. Something to keep in mind: it’s August 17th, and the Longhorns have just one full scrimmage in the books. That being said, Texas probably doesn’t want to drag this decision out to the final few days before the Notre Dame game.
So, how does he think this through? What pros and cons matter most?
Does he go with the experience against one of the best teams in the country during primetime, or the unknown?
Does he go with the young upside that will generate the most fan-support (sadly, true) and create the most energy, or does he go with a big guy with a big arm that can also pound a defense in the run-game?
Does he trust the natural ability and instincts the freshman has shown in practice and in the spring game despite the production results, or does he go with a senior quarterback reportedly making more, better throws in practice, and that likely has improved?
Does he believe that one thing (Swoopes’ inconsistency in games) will trend positively for him for a change, or does he believe in another thing (Buechele will perform better than he has in practice when it's gametime)?
The questions are endless. And right now, the answer is nowhere to be found.
However, one question reigns supreme: who gives Strong the best chance to beat Notre Dame? Above any negative or positive, the answer to that question is paramount. If Swoopes has improved and Buechele isn't separating himself in the race, does experience become the tiebreaker? Maybe.
4) Erick Fowler
While Strong doesn’t have the quarterback situation solved at the moment, he continues to get showered with gifts this summer more than a future bride that resides in the Hamptons. This week, the Texas head coach’s five-star pass-rusher, and ideal-build-for-the-fox wildman Erick Fowler received the news he, Texas, and Texas fans have been anxiously waiting for – he’s a Longhorn.
Before you pencil in the 6-2 edge-rusher for 8.0 sacks consider that he’s going to be behind in fall camp, and he’s already missed valuable practice time. It already takes any freshman a while to get acclimated, and Fowler will certainly have some catching up to do.
That being said, if he’s close to being in shape and can pick up what Texas is doing defensively in a fairly quick manner, there’s an immediate opportunity for instant impact. It’s unfair to expect him to start right away, and Naashon Hughes and Texas linebackers aren’t slouches. Heck, he might not start all year.
However, Fowler possesses the rare blend of talent, quickness, natural pass-rushing ability and explosive power unlike anyone else on the Texas roster. Early on, he’s absolutely a candidate to gain 5-10 passing down snaps a game when Texas sends him in with the instructions to seek and destroy he football. Against elite competition at events like The Opening and Army All-American Game, Fowler showed the strength to drive offensive tackles back, and the quickness and hands to get by them and into the backfield. He also routinely made his presence felt in the run-game by setting the edge or getting into the backfield to steer running backs inside.
After seeing him up close as a sophomore, Fowler is wired in a way fans want their edge-rushers to be wired; he has that edge and nastiness to him.
Don’t expect the world of him early, but Strong and Vance Bedford probably feel like I imagine I would if I walked outside to find a Corvette Stingray with a bow on it.
ENJOY HIS SENIOR FILM
5) Shaka Smart building his foundation and the Texas hoops culture
It's August 17th, and Longhorns fans are losing their collective minds about the upcoming season, particularly the quarterback situation. So I know it’s definitely not basketball season. That being said, there’s a feeling on the 40 Acres right now that Shaka Smart and company could be building a giant, and are establishing the kind of unique culture that can turn into the kind of cycle that breeds winning each and every year.
If you missed our lengthy piece on the hoops program this week, click here. Don’t worry. You’re not going to hurt my feelings if you missed it.
In the piece, this quote stood out to me the most:
“The returning guys are even in such a different role, and it’s such a different dynamic on our team because the dynamic is no longer dominated by Isaiah (Taylor) and last year’s seniors; those guys set the tone for who we were,” Smart stated about the roles his returning players are in now compared to last season when the veterans led the charge. “I thought they did a really good job of being receptive to the things that we asked of them when we came in. At the same time, those guys had been here two, three years and sometimes when guys have been around, certain things kind of are what they are. So yeah, in a lot of ways we are starting over.”
There’s no doubt that Smart changed the direction of the program, and positively affected the veteran players’ confidence and developed their skill, which lead to, collectively, their best production. However, there’s also no doubt that Smart couldn’t completely erase and reprogram what those players had already experienced and were a part of during the previous coaching staff.
Now, he has almost a completely clean slate to start establishing, entirely, his foundation and his culture.
6) Kody Clemens needs Tommy John… what’s that mean for Texas and his 2017 future?
Yesterday, Kody Clemens announced, to the surprise of basically everyone not named Clemens, through his Twitter and Instagram pages that he was undergoing Tommy John surgery. From what we heard, that surgery happened yesterday on his throwing arm.
The immediate reaction to the words “Tommy John surgery” is that the player is lost for a year, and the upcoming season. However, pitchers and position players have different timetables when it comes to recovery from the procedure.
Yesterday, I communicated with longtime writer, and injury expert (heck, his Twitter handle is @injuryexpert) Will Carroll and baseball writer from The Hardball Times, Jon Roegele. Carroll has seen a return as quick as six months for a professional player. Roegele has actually built a database dedicated to documenting every professional player that’s undergone the Tommy John surgery, and this was his take:
So if Clemens underwent the surgery yesterday, he would be, if he recovered within the range most pro baseball players do, able to return somewhere between late March and early April, or during conference play.
The tough question for the sophomore infielder would be rather or not to take a redshirt year. If he wanted to rest the arm the entire year and not push it, he could serve as a designated hitter for a good portion of the 2017 season. Again, this is assuming he recovers at the rate most players do.
On the plus side for Texas, middle infield or third base is the one spot it could handle an injury like this. Bret Boswell was the star of the California Collegiate League this summer, and is poised to break out under a new staff. Joe Baker is back. Zane Gurwitz can play infield, and so can Travis Jones at third. Plus, true freshman David Hamilton is talented enough to hit at the top of the lineup and play in the middle of the infield immediately.
Losing Clemens for any period of time next season would be a blow because he was projected to be a starting infielder and would have hit at the top of the lineup. However, Texas has depth at his position, and he could return at some point next season, based on past evidence of position players that went through the surgery and recovery.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Are the people that are running Big 12 expansion at the Big 12 offices big Bachelor and Bachelorette fans? Because that’s evidently where expansion has detoured for the present time.
As if the desperate candidates couldn’t look even more lackluster, South Florida supplied all the laughs, reminding us it’s still South Florida and it is also in the midst of an academic scandal.
--- Recently, the Inside the 40 Acres hosted a passionate discussion about Baltimore Orioles reliever Zach Britton and the American League Cy Young Award. Basically, some are of the opinion Britton is the frontrunner for the award, while others scoff at the idea in a way that would make Bryce Harper sheepishly grin.
The case for Britton focuses on a few things. He has a microscopic 0.54 ERA, and has strung together an insanely good amount of scoreless appearances. Obviously, a reliever with that kind of ERA would be an all-time great feat. The rate at which his two-seam sinker generates swings and misses and overpowers opponents is also unbelievably good.
But more than anything, those in the Britton camp will point to his WPA (win probability added). If you include all pitchers and not just ones that have qualified by throwing enough innings, he leads all of baseball at 4.52. That’s really good. Last season, only Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Mark Melancon (hey, a reliever!), and Clayton Kershaw finished with higher WPA numbers. But 17 relievers placed in the top 30 of 2015’s WPA leaderboard for a reason.
So the question becomes: how much of a feat is it to post that kind of WPA number as a reliever? It’s clearly not uncommon for relief pitchers to rate well in that area, and there’s a reason for that.
WPA is completely driven by game context. By nature, a team’s best relievers are often going to pitch in close games, and late in games. You’re unlikely to see Britton take the mound in a 7-1 game in the sixth inning. So if a good reliever is mostly entering the game only when that game is in a medium or high-leverage inning or moment, his opportunities to achieve a higher WPA are going to be more abundant than a starting pitcher. Because a starting pitcher might toss a complete game shutout, but if that complete game shutout comes when his team scored six runs early, he’s not going to be able to accumulate as many chances to build a high WPA. That doesn't mean he's not a great pitcher and the performance wasn't great. It simply means game context dictates WPA value.
Britton has enjoyed a lot of high-leverage, higher-value moments, and he should be commended for excelling during his appearances at an elite rate. However, his WPA is skewed because his limited innings are weighted by those appearances. The highest gmLI (the leverage index when a pitcher enters the game) a starting pitcher has this season is 0.99 (Matt Wisler of the Braves). Britton’s is 1.61.
What’s a way to put pitchers on more of an even playing field and still examine the kind of wins they’re adding? Good question. A way to do that is to take the pitcher’s WPA and divide that by their LI (leverage index; a measure of how high or low leverage that player is involved in each play the player is involved). From Fangraphs.com:
This number is called Context Neutral Wins (WPA/LI) because it neutralizes leverage while still measuring wins added (remember: 1 WPA = 100% win expectancy). WPA/LI is calculated over the course of a season for every at-bat and is then summed at the end of the season to provide a player with their total WPA/LI. It is a good way to compare WPA between players.
Again, WPA/LI measures how much value a player added to their team regardless of the leverage. Because of this, it is more a measure of a player’s talent level than WPA.
In this area, Britton rates at 1.81. Pretty good. If a pitcher can reach 3.0 at the end of the season, that’s considered great.
However, Britton rates behind Chris Sale (2.25), Corey Kluber (2.24), Jose Quintana (2.19), Danny Duffy (2.01), Steven Wright (1.91), Aaron Sanchez (1.88), Michael Fulmer (1.85) and is tied with Marco Estrada (1.81) in the American League.
So when it comes to Context Neutral Wins, Britton is solid but not AL best good.
Examining this further, the problem with a relief pitcher winning the Cy Young is that he’s a situational pitcher that’s often only entering the game with a lead, and only facing 3-7 hitters in an appearance. If the Orioles fall behind 2-0 early, and lose 2-0, there is a very good chance that Britton doesn’t even appear in the game. And that’s the best pitcher in the American League? There’s a reason why we’ve seen failed starting pitchers become great relievers, like Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, and, surprise, Britton (funny thing there is that Britton’s fWAR as an average to below average starting pitcher in 2011 was 2.0, which is 0.2 higher than it is right now).
Starting pitchers are tested more. They often can’t rely on just one or two pitches, and are sometimes facing hitters three or four times in a game. They also can’t use maximum effort against each hitter they face, and have to pace themselves. Toronto is debating on moving Sanchez from the rotation to the bullpen to minimize his workload, not because he’d be more valuable there. There’s a reason why he was in the rotation at the beginning of the season.
Plus, relievers simply don’t throw the innings that starters do. Closers might rack up more innings in higher leverage moments, but they’re enjoying the advantage of situations, and aren’t as valuable as starting pitchers.
Britton has been an outstanding closer this season. But outside of ERA, he hasn't been any better than last season, when he didn't receive a single Cy Young vote. What's changed? WPA, and WPA doesn't make enough of a case to outweigh the fact that starting pitchers are more valuable, and very often more talented.
--- A few random thoughts on the EPL after its opening weekend:
Liverpool might possess a group of elite attackers, but it also has an awful defense backed by an okay at best goalie.
Arsenal can’t survive with the group of CBs it put on the pitch this past weekend, and could really use a creative presence on the right that can create chances.
Zlatan and Pogba are the no-doubt star additions to Manchester United, but new defender Eric Bailly looks like he’s going to be an absolute force, and an elite player.
Felt like both Manchester City and Chelsea were both more lucky than good.
Watching big-name coaches lose their minds on the sidelines in celebration is awesome, and must-watch theater. The scene after Chelsea’s win at home was incredible.
Everton’s Gerard Deulofeu is going to score a lot of goals, and create a lot of chances and assists this season.
Adding striker Vincent Janssen is already paying off for Tottenham. When he entered the game as a sub and played with Harry Kane, it completely changed the direction of the contest, led to a goal, and nearly led to two others in the second half.
--- What’s up with USA Basketball? Effort, shot selection, and roster construction. Kyrie Irving is a terrific talent, but he’s a shoot-first point guard. That roster needs a point guard that is pass-first and elevates others.
Plus, the Olympics are filled with good teams and good players this year. Some of those teams, like Australia, moved the ball and ran offense in a way that would make Gregg Popovich want to open a bottle of wine, watch, and smile.
--- It still seems unbelievable that South African runner Wayde van Niekerk shattered a world record out of lane eight, that Simone Biles and USA women’s gymnastics are this special and this dominant, that Usaian Bolt is still the fastest man on Earth, and that Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky did what they did in the pool.
What also seems unbelievable? Ryan Lochte’s wild robbery story that’s starting to sound more and more like one big lie.
8) Anything and everything
--- On Twitter recently, a hashtag was trending that included people posting their seven favorite movies. So on that note, my seven favorite films:
The Big Lebowski
Ocean’s 11
Batman
Good Will Hunting
Spotlight
Young Guns
Wedding Crashers
--- If you’re a FIFA junkie like I am, the recent revelations about the upcoming FIFA 17 are undoubtedly exciting. The Ultimate Team mode is going to include challenges, that can unlock items, like special players.
--- From now on each week I’m going to single out what is, in my opinion, an everyday thing we take for granted that is particularly awesome. This week it’s the red light system. Can you imagine driving without it? Sitting at red lights might drive us nuts from time to time, but whoever designed the system deserves a huge hug. Just search for Russian driving videos on YouTube if you want to see a faulty system.
---
9) The best non-sports thing I read this week
Maybe it’s because it’s something I’d watch and I find the idea fascinating, but the New York Times’ story on MTV Classic was interesting, and also put into perspective how we are consuming media right now, and where that’s heading in the future.
Also, a special bonus because of how much of a topic it often is on the Orangebloods.com message boards: scientists study the chemtrails conspiracy.
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1) A look at the Pros and Cons of both QB candidates
Come on. Did you really think I was going to write about the defensive ends or running back rotation?
After ducking for cover in a bomb shelter when the War Room was posted last Thursday night, I’ve emerged to find the world habitable post-Tyrone Swoopes report. If the infamous “Red Banquet” night was a 10 on the OB Meltdown Scale, we just survived an 8 that was on par with the hours following Texas’ wretched performance against Iowa State this past season. Sure, I still approach the internet landscape in a hazmat suit, but life is still chugging along. You could say that “chugging along” is a fair way to describe Swoopes’ QB career at Texas.
Rather than add gasoline to the already raging fires that focus on aspects like practice reps, and more, I thought I’d direct my brainpower towards a comparative analysis: the pros and cons of each quarterback.
The old saying goes, “the most popular guy on campus is the backup quarterback,” or something like that. The reaction to the mere possibility that Swoopes starts in just under three weeks wasn’t that surprising, although much of it was over-the-top, especially when you consider these were Texas fans discussing a Texas player. But the senior quarterback does have more than a couple of things that fall into the “Pros” category.
As much as some Texas fans can’t bring themselves to process the thought or acknowledge its possibility, there is a legitimate chance that he’s a better quarterback than last season, and that he’s the best option for Texas to start under center, at least for the first game of the year.
However, there’s also a legitimate chance that Shane Buechele is the better option even if Swoopes has improved. Let’s take a look at where they differ, and offer more perspective as it relates to the starting position:
2) Pros and Cons for both Swoopes and Buechele
Tyrone Swoopes (senior)
PROS
Durability
- This one doesn’t require a lot of explanation. Swoopes is listed at 6-4, 249 pounds and it’s called the 18-wheeler Package for a reason. Although every program wants to keep its quarterback healthy, there isn’t the level of concern about using Swoopes in running plays as there is with most other quarterbacks because he is so big.
Experience
- Swoopes enters his senior after appearing in 28 games, and he’s attempted 490 career passes. Tough road and neutral environments aren’t unfamiliar to him. Sure, all of that experience hasn’t been sunshine and puppies, but having two full seasons-plus of experience absolutely matters.
Arm strength
- In terms of arm strength, there isn’t a throw on the field Swoopes can’t make, which includes all the vertical throws Sterlin Gilbert would like to incorporate in his offense, and the outs and hitches from the opposite hash across the field against man coverage.
Work-ethic
- Texas fans can say what they want about Swoopes’ performances, but no one has ever questioned his work-ethic and his dedication to doing whatever was required in order to help the team. Now on his fourth offensive coordinator entering his senior season, he’s picked up the new system at a solid level and continues to compete no matter how many times he’s been shuffled in-and-out of roles.
Running ability
- Again, this is a quarterback that was used as a runner as part of a special package of plays for part of last season, and he excelled at it. He’s not incredibly fast or elusive as an open field runner, but he can get out of the pocket, or step up in the pocket, and be a threat to gain yards with his legs.
CONS
Inconsistency
- Swoopes has enjoyed some outstanding performances, like in 2014, in an environment that can swallow quarterbacks and spit them out, against Oklahoma when he was arguably the best player on the field and racked up 384 total yards with three touchdowns. But he’s also had some horrendous performances, like later that year against TCU when he threw four interceptions and followed that up with a measly 57 passing yards in the bowl game against Arkansas.
What Texas needs most from the position isn’t a star. It needs a consistently above-average performer that doesn’t beat his own team. Swoopes hasn’t proven able to do that yet.
Accuracy
- Much like his overall performances, Swoopes’ accuracy can really fluctuate. At times, he shows the ability to set his feet and deliver an accurate ball all over the field, and then at other times he shows the tendency to get away from his mechanics and completely miss on intermediate throws and overthrow deep balls.
Responding to pressure, repeating mechanics
- There have been times throughout his career when Swoopes gets rattled due to pressure, loses his ability to repeat his mechanics, and the game gets sped up on him, which leads to inconsistent decision-making. This improve some in 2015, but the 2015 sample size of throws isn’t that large.
Shane Buechele (freshman)
PROS
Instincts
- Yes, we only have open practices, a spring game, and high school to go off of, but Buechele exudes instinctive, natural ability on the field. He hasn’t yet performed at a high enough level consistently to run away with the QB job, but there is no denying that Buechele moves, acts, and thinks like a natural on the football field.
Competitiveness
- We’ve all heard the stories about calling up receivers to throw late at night, being a “gym rat” and being very competitive at things like ping pong. Buechele’s genes are rooted in sports throughout his family, and he’s been around a professional baseball player and coach all his life. In an open practice, Buechele tossed a bad pick and immediately followed that with three good throws the very next plays.
Mechanics
- It’s rare for a freshman quarterback to show up with the understanding of and ability to implement mechanics like Buechele does, particularly his usage of his core to make his delivery quick, easy, and increase arm strength. The product of Arlington Lamar displays quality, advanced mechanics that can be easily repeated.
Feet and head
- This could probably be lumped into the “mechanics” section above, but Buechele’s understanding of how to move a defense with his head is advanced for his age. And he routinely moves his feet well, and that puts him constantly in balance, which can aid accuracy.
Natural touch
- Another thing that falls under "things you can't teach" is Buechele's touch. He spins a tight spiral that acts as a soft ball for players to catch, and has shown the ability to naturally drop a ball into the bucket down the field, even when he's on the run.
CONS
Inexperience
- Until Buechele takes the field in a college game, that aspect of his football career is going to be new to him, and how good or how poor he performs is impossible to predict until it happens. There is no substitute for experience, and no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to quarterbacks. How would Buechele handle playing Notre Dame with all of college football’s eyeballs watching and the weight of the Texas program on his shoulders? No one knows.
Size
- He’s listed at 6-1, 191 pounds and both the height and weight are probably generous. Are there times when his height could affect him at the line of scrimmage? Sure, but time has shown being 6-0 doesn’t prevent a QB from being a good performer. However, the true freshman’s frame could make his durability an issue because he is so small, and does need added weight and muscle. How would he respond physically to the big hits that will absolutely come with taking snaps during a live game? That’s not something that can be simulated in practice.
Arm strength
- This isn’t a huge negative, but asking Buechele to make throws from the opposite field hash across the field is asking him to do too much right now. During an open practice, he tried to dig for extra arm strength and force one of those throws and it was easily picked off.
Consistency/production
- Again, we’re going off only practices here, and we only were able to see two of them. So a lot of this is reading between the lines, and also what sources are saying. That being said, it’s fair to say that if Buechele was consistently producing at a high level in practice, he’d be leading the QB race right now. And that’s reportedly not the case at the moment. With no game tape to go off of, this makes his practice reps more important.
3) Discussion about the decision
In an ideal world, a Texas quarterback would constantly take the field and perform at a high level for Charlie Strong. But it’s not an ideal world, and the Texas head coach is faced with a tough decision. Something to keep in mind: it’s August 17th, and the Longhorns have just one full scrimmage in the books. That being said, Texas probably doesn’t want to drag this decision out to the final few days before the Notre Dame game.
So, how does he think this through? What pros and cons matter most?
Does he go with the experience against one of the best teams in the country during primetime, or the unknown?
Does he go with the young upside that will generate the most fan-support (sadly, true) and create the most energy, or does he go with a big guy with a big arm that can also pound a defense in the run-game?
Does he trust the natural ability and instincts the freshman has shown in practice and in the spring game despite the production results, or does he go with a senior quarterback reportedly making more, better throws in practice, and that likely has improved?
Does he believe that one thing (Swoopes’ inconsistency in games) will trend positively for him for a change, or does he believe in another thing (Buechele will perform better than he has in practice when it's gametime)?
The questions are endless. And right now, the answer is nowhere to be found.
However, one question reigns supreme: who gives Strong the best chance to beat Notre Dame? Above any negative or positive, the answer to that question is paramount. If Swoopes has improved and Buechele isn't separating himself in the race, does experience become the tiebreaker? Maybe.
4) Erick Fowler
While Strong doesn’t have the quarterback situation solved at the moment, he continues to get showered with gifts this summer more than a future bride that resides in the Hamptons. This week, the Texas head coach’s five-star pass-rusher, and ideal-build-for-the-fox wildman Erick Fowler received the news he, Texas, and Texas fans have been anxiously waiting for – he’s a Longhorn.
Before you pencil in the 6-2 edge-rusher for 8.0 sacks consider that he’s going to be behind in fall camp, and he’s already missed valuable practice time. It already takes any freshman a while to get acclimated, and Fowler will certainly have some catching up to do.
That being said, if he’s close to being in shape and can pick up what Texas is doing defensively in a fairly quick manner, there’s an immediate opportunity for instant impact. It’s unfair to expect him to start right away, and Naashon Hughes and Texas linebackers aren’t slouches. Heck, he might not start all year.
However, Fowler possesses the rare blend of talent, quickness, natural pass-rushing ability and explosive power unlike anyone else on the Texas roster. Early on, he’s absolutely a candidate to gain 5-10 passing down snaps a game when Texas sends him in with the instructions to seek and destroy he football. Against elite competition at events like The Opening and Army All-American Game, Fowler showed the strength to drive offensive tackles back, and the quickness and hands to get by them and into the backfield. He also routinely made his presence felt in the run-game by setting the edge or getting into the backfield to steer running backs inside.
After seeing him up close as a sophomore, Fowler is wired in a way fans want their edge-rushers to be wired; he has that edge and nastiness to him.
Don’t expect the world of him early, but Strong and Vance Bedford probably feel like I imagine I would if I walked outside to find a Corvette Stingray with a bow on it.
ENJOY HIS SENIOR FILM
5) Shaka Smart building his foundation and the Texas hoops culture
It's August 17th, and Longhorns fans are losing their collective minds about the upcoming season, particularly the quarterback situation. So I know it’s definitely not basketball season. That being said, there’s a feeling on the 40 Acres right now that Shaka Smart and company could be building a giant, and are establishing the kind of unique culture that can turn into the kind of cycle that breeds winning each and every year.
If you missed our lengthy piece on the hoops program this week, click here. Don’t worry. You’re not going to hurt my feelings if you missed it.
In the piece, this quote stood out to me the most:
“The returning guys are even in such a different role, and it’s such a different dynamic on our team because the dynamic is no longer dominated by Isaiah (Taylor) and last year’s seniors; those guys set the tone for who we were,” Smart stated about the roles his returning players are in now compared to last season when the veterans led the charge. “I thought they did a really good job of being receptive to the things that we asked of them when we came in. At the same time, those guys had been here two, three years and sometimes when guys have been around, certain things kind of are what they are. So yeah, in a lot of ways we are starting over.”
There’s no doubt that Smart changed the direction of the program, and positively affected the veteran players’ confidence and developed their skill, which lead to, collectively, their best production. However, there’s also no doubt that Smart couldn’t completely erase and reprogram what those players had already experienced and were a part of during the previous coaching staff.
Now, he has almost a completely clean slate to start establishing, entirely, his foundation and his culture.
6) Kody Clemens needs Tommy John… what’s that mean for Texas and his 2017 future?
Yesterday, Kody Clemens announced, to the surprise of basically everyone not named Clemens, through his Twitter and Instagram pages that he was undergoing Tommy John surgery. From what we heard, that surgery happened yesterday on his throwing arm.
The immediate reaction to the words “Tommy John surgery” is that the player is lost for a year, and the upcoming season. However, pitchers and position players have different timetables when it comes to recovery from the procedure.
Yesterday, I communicated with longtime writer, and injury expert (heck, his Twitter handle is @injuryexpert) Will Carroll and baseball writer from The Hardball Times, Jon Roegele. Carroll has seen a return as quick as six months for a professional player. Roegele has actually built a database dedicated to documenting every professional player that’s undergone the Tommy John surgery, and this was his take:
So if Clemens underwent the surgery yesterday, he would be, if he recovered within the range most pro baseball players do, able to return somewhere between late March and early April, or during conference play.
The tough question for the sophomore infielder would be rather or not to take a redshirt year. If he wanted to rest the arm the entire year and not push it, he could serve as a designated hitter for a good portion of the 2017 season. Again, this is assuming he recovers at the rate most players do.
On the plus side for Texas, middle infield or third base is the one spot it could handle an injury like this. Bret Boswell was the star of the California Collegiate League this summer, and is poised to break out under a new staff. Joe Baker is back. Zane Gurwitz can play infield, and so can Travis Jones at third. Plus, true freshman David Hamilton is talented enough to hit at the top of the lineup and play in the middle of the infield immediately.
Losing Clemens for any period of time next season would be a blow because he was projected to be a starting infielder and would have hit at the top of the lineup. However, Texas has depth at his position, and he could return at some point next season, based on past evidence of position players that went through the surgery and recovery.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Are the people that are running Big 12 expansion at the Big 12 offices big Bachelor and Bachelorette fans? Because that’s evidently where expansion has detoured for the present time.
As if the desperate candidates couldn’t look even more lackluster, South Florida supplied all the laughs, reminding us it’s still South Florida and it is also in the midst of an academic scandal.
--- Recently, the Inside the 40 Acres hosted a passionate discussion about Baltimore Orioles reliever Zach Britton and the American League Cy Young Award. Basically, some are of the opinion Britton is the frontrunner for the award, while others scoff at the idea in a way that would make Bryce Harper sheepishly grin.
The case for Britton focuses on a few things. He has a microscopic 0.54 ERA, and has strung together an insanely good amount of scoreless appearances. Obviously, a reliever with that kind of ERA would be an all-time great feat. The rate at which his two-seam sinker generates swings and misses and overpowers opponents is also unbelievably good.
But more than anything, those in the Britton camp will point to his WPA (win probability added). If you include all pitchers and not just ones that have qualified by throwing enough innings, he leads all of baseball at 4.52. That’s really good. Last season, only Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Mark Melancon (hey, a reliever!), and Clayton Kershaw finished with higher WPA numbers. But 17 relievers placed in the top 30 of 2015’s WPA leaderboard for a reason.
So the question becomes: how much of a feat is it to post that kind of WPA number as a reliever? It’s clearly not uncommon for relief pitchers to rate well in that area, and there’s a reason for that.
WPA is completely driven by game context. By nature, a team’s best relievers are often going to pitch in close games, and late in games. You’re unlikely to see Britton take the mound in a 7-1 game in the sixth inning. So if a good reliever is mostly entering the game only when that game is in a medium or high-leverage inning or moment, his opportunities to achieve a higher WPA are going to be more abundant than a starting pitcher. Because a starting pitcher might toss a complete game shutout, but if that complete game shutout comes when his team scored six runs early, he’s not going to be able to accumulate as many chances to build a high WPA. That doesn't mean he's not a great pitcher and the performance wasn't great. It simply means game context dictates WPA value.
Britton has enjoyed a lot of high-leverage, higher-value moments, and he should be commended for excelling during his appearances at an elite rate. However, his WPA is skewed because his limited innings are weighted by those appearances. The highest gmLI (the leverage index when a pitcher enters the game) a starting pitcher has this season is 0.99 (Matt Wisler of the Braves). Britton’s is 1.61.
What’s a way to put pitchers on more of an even playing field and still examine the kind of wins they’re adding? Good question. A way to do that is to take the pitcher’s WPA and divide that by their LI (leverage index; a measure of how high or low leverage that player is involved in each play the player is involved). From Fangraphs.com:
This number is called Context Neutral Wins (WPA/LI) because it neutralizes leverage while still measuring wins added (remember: 1 WPA = 100% win expectancy). WPA/LI is calculated over the course of a season for every at-bat and is then summed at the end of the season to provide a player with their total WPA/LI. It is a good way to compare WPA between players.
Again, WPA/LI measures how much value a player added to their team regardless of the leverage. Because of this, it is more a measure of a player’s talent level than WPA.
In this area, Britton rates at 1.81. Pretty good. If a pitcher can reach 3.0 at the end of the season, that’s considered great.
However, Britton rates behind Chris Sale (2.25), Corey Kluber (2.24), Jose Quintana (2.19), Danny Duffy (2.01), Steven Wright (1.91), Aaron Sanchez (1.88), Michael Fulmer (1.85) and is tied with Marco Estrada (1.81) in the American League.
So when it comes to Context Neutral Wins, Britton is solid but not AL best good.
Examining this further, the problem with a relief pitcher winning the Cy Young is that he’s a situational pitcher that’s often only entering the game with a lead, and only facing 3-7 hitters in an appearance. If the Orioles fall behind 2-0 early, and lose 2-0, there is a very good chance that Britton doesn’t even appear in the game. And that’s the best pitcher in the American League? There’s a reason why we’ve seen failed starting pitchers become great relievers, like Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, and, surprise, Britton (funny thing there is that Britton’s fWAR as an average to below average starting pitcher in 2011 was 2.0, which is 0.2 higher than it is right now).
Starting pitchers are tested more. They often can’t rely on just one or two pitches, and are sometimes facing hitters three or four times in a game. They also can’t use maximum effort against each hitter they face, and have to pace themselves. Toronto is debating on moving Sanchez from the rotation to the bullpen to minimize his workload, not because he’d be more valuable there. There’s a reason why he was in the rotation at the beginning of the season.
Plus, relievers simply don’t throw the innings that starters do. Closers might rack up more innings in higher leverage moments, but they’re enjoying the advantage of situations, and aren’t as valuable as starting pitchers.
Britton has been an outstanding closer this season. But outside of ERA, he hasn't been any better than last season, when he didn't receive a single Cy Young vote. What's changed? WPA, and WPA doesn't make enough of a case to outweigh the fact that starting pitchers are more valuable, and very often more talented.
--- A few random thoughts on the EPL after its opening weekend:
Liverpool might possess a group of elite attackers, but it also has an awful defense backed by an okay at best goalie.
Arsenal can’t survive with the group of CBs it put on the pitch this past weekend, and could really use a creative presence on the right that can create chances.
Zlatan and Pogba are the no-doubt star additions to Manchester United, but new defender Eric Bailly looks like he’s going to be an absolute force, and an elite player.
Felt like both Manchester City and Chelsea were both more lucky than good.
Watching big-name coaches lose their minds on the sidelines in celebration is awesome, and must-watch theater. The scene after Chelsea’s win at home was incredible.
Everton’s Gerard Deulofeu is going to score a lot of goals, and create a lot of chances and assists this season.
Adding striker Vincent Janssen is already paying off for Tottenham. When he entered the game as a sub and played with Harry Kane, it completely changed the direction of the contest, led to a goal, and nearly led to two others in the second half.
--- What’s up with USA Basketball? Effort, shot selection, and roster construction. Kyrie Irving is a terrific talent, but he’s a shoot-first point guard. That roster needs a point guard that is pass-first and elevates others.
Plus, the Olympics are filled with good teams and good players this year. Some of those teams, like Australia, moved the ball and ran offense in a way that would make Gregg Popovich want to open a bottle of wine, watch, and smile.
--- It still seems unbelievable that South African runner Wayde van Niekerk shattered a world record out of lane eight, that Simone Biles and USA women’s gymnastics are this special and this dominant, that Usaian Bolt is still the fastest man on Earth, and that Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky did what they did in the pool.
What also seems unbelievable? Ryan Lochte’s wild robbery story that’s starting to sound more and more like one big lie.
8) Anything and everything
--- On Twitter recently, a hashtag was trending that included people posting their seven favorite movies. So on that note, my seven favorite films:
The Big Lebowski
Ocean’s 11
Batman
Good Will Hunting
Spotlight
Young Guns
Wedding Crashers
--- If you’re a FIFA junkie like I am, the recent revelations about the upcoming FIFA 17 are undoubtedly exciting. The Ultimate Team mode is going to include challenges, that can unlock items, like special players.
--- From now on each week I’m going to single out what is, in my opinion, an everyday thing we take for granted that is particularly awesome. This week it’s the red light system. Can you imagine driving without it? Sitting at red lights might drive us nuts from time to time, but whoever designed the system deserves a huge hug. Just search for Russian driving videos on YouTube if you want to see a faulty system.
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9) The best non-sports thing I read this week
Maybe it’s because it’s something I’d watch and I find the idea fascinating, but the New York Times’ story on MTV Classic was interesting, and also put into perspective how we are consuming media right now, and where that’s heading in the future.
Also, a special bonus because of how much of a topic it often is on the Orangebloods.com message boards: scientists study the chemtrails conspiracy.
