DUSTIN'S OMAHA BLOG (Tue 11:15 a.m.): Kowar scouting report; pregame thoughts on the matchup

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
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Apr 26, 2005
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Tuesday 11:15 a.m. update:

This was me in Omaha yesterday:
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Hopefully, the rain stays away today, but I'm not very optimistic about that...

Anyway, let's hope Mother Nature cooperates today and things go relatively smoothly.

For Texas, it all starts on the mound and ends on the mound. If Blair Henley and Chase Shugart - because Shugart will very likely enter for a long stint at some point - throw quality strikes and Texas plays solid defense, the Longhorns have a chance. If they don't, it's going to be tough to beat No. 1 Florida.

Although Jackson Kowar is very talented, I do anticipate Texas putting some runners on base at a decent or better rate. It has handled big velocity right righthanders well in the past, although quality changeups have given the lefties in the lineup some issues.

The most interesting thing to watch will be how Florida, who began the year No. 1 as well, handles being in an elimination setting. At the end of the regular season and through the postseason, the Gators haven't played at the elite level they did every week prior. Will that linger into today's game? We'll see. Often, momentum follows the pitcher that starts the sharpest.

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Monday 4:25 p.m. update:

This afternoon, the Longhorns, before some nasty weather moved into downtown Omaha, practiced at local Bellevue East High School. It was a light, loose practice that featured batting practice, infielders taking some ground balls, pitchers lightly tossing, and Beau Ridgeway throwing a bullpen session. Some notes from today’s practice, and thoughts on Florida starting pitcher Jackson Kowar:

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--- “We’ve been in this situation before. We’ve been knocked down. Obviously, at the start of the year we were 9-9. After Arkansas, actually, we picked it up, so we’re going to do the same thing,” said Blair Henley. “Mentality is the same. We’re here to win every game, but one game at a time. No one is down. We know we have to have a little better stuff to carry it through.”

Speaking of Henley, he’ll receive the start tomorrow (1:00 p.m. on ESPN) vs. No. 1 Florida.

“Easy? I don’t know about easy, but I think it’s the right decision,” responded David Pierce when asked if starting Henley was an easy choice.

The thinking for the Longhorns is rooted in liking Chase Shugart more in the backend or long relief behind Henley than the other way around.

“Yeah, no doubt,” said Pierce when asked if Shugart will be available tomorrow. “I like… if we think we may use both of them, I like starting Blair and I like Chase out of the pen much more so than Blair.”

Pierce also stated the only pitcher who won’t be available to pitch is Nolan Kingham.

The Longhorns aren’t going to get beat in Omaha in an elimination game without throwing Henley and Shugart. The best-case scenario is Henley effectively pitching deep into the game, and some combination of Parker Joe Robinson, Josh Sawyer, and Andy McGuire getting the ball to Shugart in the backend, or vice versa. Having Shugart ready after throwing just 10 pitches on Sunday means Texas can be aggressive with its bullpen, and make a quick move if needed, which is what Texas Tech did in its win over Florida last night.

“Well, he has stuff. If he commands it, he’s going to be the guy because he can throw four pitches for strikes. It’s about commanding and pitching ahead,” said Pierce about Henley.

When Henley, who has a 1.93 ERA and .184 batting against over his last 14.0 innings, has pitched well of late, it’s because he attacks hitters and challenges then instead of trying to make the perfect pitch all the time.

“I think my mentality wasn’t in the right place,” responded Henley about his early-season struggles. “I was nibbling… My whole mindset the last couple of weeks has been attacking and getting ahead.”

--- The Longhorn lineup will face talented Florida righthander Jackson Kowar. Selected No. 33 overall by the Kansas City Royals, Kowar will enter tomorrow’s contest with a 3.24 ERA with 102 walks and 41 strikeouts in 105.2 innings. Batters are hitting .241 against him. In SEC play, Kowar’s numbers were nearly identical.

“He’s probably 92-96 MPH; big arm, big body; I think he has a plus changeup and it has split action to it. As far as stuff it reminds me a little bit of (Travis) Moths where we’re going to have to see the secondary pitches up and be ready to hit the fastball,” Pierce said about Kowar. “It looks like he likes to pitch to gloveside, so righthanders are going to have to stay on the ball and lefthanders are going to have to turn on the ball. If that’s what he ends up doing.”

Moths, who started against Tennessee Tech, is immediately who I thought of as well when discussing Kowar with a couple MLB scouts. From the right side, Moths attacked Texas with a low 90’s fastball that reached 94-95 MPH, and often threw a plus changeup with horizontal and vertical break to both righthanders and lefthanders; it’s rare for a righthanded pitcher to throw changeusp to righthanded hitters, but Kowar, like Moths, will do it, and often because the changeup is their best secondary offering. Moths’s changeup had more of an exaggerated circle changeup break late in the zone while Kowar’s will have more of a darting splitter action late.

If Texas going to have success, it’ll need to hit fastballs early in counts, and see the changeup up in the zone early in at-bats. Kowar will use a breaking ball, but it’s mostly an average offering with the occasional above average flash. I don’t anticipate Texas seeing 98 MPH from Kowar at this point in the long season, but he had that in the tank earlier this year.

To beat Florida, Texas isn’t just competing with Kowar. The Longhorns need their pitchers to consistently record outs against a talented Gator lineup that received a recent boost with senior leader JJ Schwarz made his return, although he looked awful on defense at first base.

“The thing is they’re hitting with more power this year than they have in the past. They’re not as action-oriented, but they have the ability to do it… we’re going to have to stay out of patterns, find their holes, and attack those,” the Texas head coach said about pitching against Florida.

--- Who knows what will happen tomorrow? Florida is really good, and is the defending national champion. But I’d be surprised if Texas didn’t play good, competitive baseball offensively, defensively, and on the mound.

“That’s what this team has been made of,” said Pierce about the team’s resiliency. “We’re a very mentally tough team. The things we’ve accomplished up to this point. Now, this is another level that we’re being tested. So, it means we have to be ready to play and it means we have to stay secure with what we do and how we do it and also just concentrate on your job and that’s when we’ve been at our best.”

--- The Longhorns were a popular team during their practice today. Some local fans came out to watch them take batting practice, and the Horns hung around after for pictures and autographs despite already having an autograph session earlier in the day.

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******

Sunday 9:00 p.m. update:

During the postgame press conference, I asked David Pierce about the thought-process behind bringing in Chase Shugart with the bases loaded and no outs in the sixth inning following a two-hour, 49-minute rain delay. The Texas head coach responded with a plan that made sense.

“No, that's why he only went 11 [pitches]. The thinking was we're in a pickle. We need to get our best guy in the game right now. And if we can get it within one run, as far as giving up one run, so it's a four-run deficit, and then we can tack on runs, maybe two, then we were going to stick with Chase. Otherwise, we were going to get him out, keep him available and move to the next guy, and that's what we did,” said Pierce.

Texas already burned through Parker Joe Robinson and Josh Sawyer, and both couldn’t throw strikes. Following the delay, Shugart had plenty of time to warm up, and Texas wanted to go with one of its best arms for an inning.

If the Longhorns were able to escape that inning by just giving up a run or two and were able to push some runs across the next inning to climb right back into the game, Pierce could have potentially stuck with Shugart. If the runs didn’t come in the top of the seventh, Texas would have gone to another reliever and kept Shguart available for Tuesday.

“If we were in a game at that point we were going to continue with Chase. But you didn't want to burn him in a deficit. So, pulled him and went to Kam (Fields). And it just wasn't good. I thought Chase threw solid pitches, but they hit early in the count. You have to throw quality pitches early, and he threw pitches with velocity but poor location.”

In the end, Shugart threw just 11 pitches, and Pierce said he’s an option to start on Tuesday, although he hasn’t decided yet between Shugart and sophomore righthander Blair Henley.

“No, they're both available. I haven't chosen which one yet,” responded the Texas head coach about Tuesday’s starter. “It may have something to do with who we face. I will say I like Chase following Henley more so than I like Henley following Chase, but there's still no decision.”

*****

Sunday 4:55 p.m. update:

Arkansas players just returned to their dugout, but the tarp is still on the field here at TD Ameritrade Park. Texas, obviously, is in a rough position, trailing 5-2 in the sixth inning with bases loaded and no outs. The Longhorns already used Parker Joe Robinson, who walked the only two batters he faced. Josh Sawyer then walked another run in.

Now, the Longhorns are in a big predicament: who do they throw?

I wouldn't burn through Chase Shugart or Blair Henley in this spot. Shugart is probably the best option, but extending him a while means he's not going to start the next game. Sawyer, who basically spent two full seasons rehabbing from three procedures, usually doesn't respond well to being extended and coming back out after long innings.

So, I think Kamron Fields could be the main option, although he too has battled some control issues and is a freshman (7.88 BB/9). Fields could be extended for two or more innings, potentially, which could help Texas now and later.

Perhaps the best option could be Matteo Bocchi. He throws a heavy sinker that could get the ground ball Texas needs to prevent a huge inning, and he's done a better job of throwing strikes lately. Plus, he has proven able to pitch 3.0-plus innings.

But Texas is in this spot because its bullpen, heading into the season, was the clear weakness. Earlier in postseason play, it figured out its roles. Today, however, those players didn't come through.

******

Sunday 12:40 p.m. update:

David Pierce will wear the No. 16 previously worn by Augie Garrido. Very cool. No one loved Omaha more than Augie.



******

Sunday 10:05 a.m. update:


First of all, Happy Father's Day. I'm assuming the fathers reading have reserved the best seat in the house for today's game.

Speaking of today's game, a few things bouncing around in my head as Texas vs. Arkansas (1:00 p.m. on ESPN) approaches:

--- Will the wind still be blowing in? If the wind occasionally smacking against the windows behind me is an indication, yes. I don't know if it would specifically help one team because the team that puts the ball in play the hardest the most is going to get rewarded for it. But I do wonder if Texas's approach could be a little bit of a better fit.

Although the Longhorns have been inconsistent with their short game at times, they have gone to it often. And they've also recently called for hit-and-runs with success. Arkansas does have 21 sacrifice bunts (Texas has 48), but it's an offense that aims to drive the ball out of the yard or deep into the gaps instead of manufacturing runs.

--- If Texas falls behind early, I don't expect it to panic. All season the Longhorns have responded and shown resiliency. I don't anticipate Omaha being any different, and there's a vibe around the program Texas is playing with "house money" and just as capable of winning this thing as anyone else.

However, if Arkansas is the team that falls behind early, I could see it playing uptight. Arkansas is expected to win today, and it knows it already beat Texas twice this season. It's led by a super-competitive starting pitcher, who is one of the team's leaders. If Texas came out and pushed across a couple of early runs and barreled the ball some, it wouldn't surprise me if Arkansas played in shock for a few innings after. Remember, this is a team that was 6-12 on the road and 3-2 at a neutral site.

--- Arkansas starter Blaine Knight won't be afraid to challenge Texas with fastballs early, and also won't be afraid to spin a 3-2 breaking ball in for a strike. If Texas is going to have success, it needs to match his competitiveness, jump on those challenge fastballs over the plate, see the slider/cutter well, and try to stay in plus counts. It won't be easy, but it's doable.

--- I'm curious to see how Nolan Kingham attacks Arkansas today. It'll be the first start he's felt 100-percent since the Big 12 Tournament. This is an aggressive Arkansas lineup, so if Kingham is going to stick with sinkers early in counts, he must keep the ball down, and he'll need to mix in a changeup with conviction against Arkansas's talented lefthanded presence.

******

Saturday 10:45 p.m. update:

For those of you that watched today's games in Omaha, you saw how big TD Ameritrade can play when a strong wind is blowing in. The ball struggles to carry to center; the places it will carry some are in front of the video board in right field and directly down the left field line. Generally, though, a batter has to really hammer one to get it out, or burn an outfielder when the wind is blowing in from center.

As for my day in Omaha today, I saw quite a bit burnt orange, and I think there will be, unsurprisingly, a good Texas contingent in Omaha. It's a lively atmosphere. The tailgating is better than when I was last here in 2014, and Omaha itself has changed.

The Blackstone District, which basically looks like a historic area was given a younger face-lift, is a cool area with coffee shops, restaurants, bars and more. I'd recommend swinging by it if you're in town. Architype coffee is treating me well, and The Session Room near the stadium is great for people-watching, sports-watching, and wings.

I'll have some more thoughts on Texas/Arkansas in the morning as well as an Nolan Kingham story y'all will enjoy. He gave me some honest, quality conversation about his early-season struggles.

****

Saturday 11:05 a.m. update:

After being around TD Ameritrade for a full day and Omaha for a couple, there's no doubt who the biggest star here is.



During Kody Clemens's batting practice yesterday, there were "oohs and aahs" from fans, particularly the younger ones, after each of his swings. Whenever he walked near the stands, screams of "Kody!" followed. I bet he's already signed thousands of baseballs this week, and he's very popular with every team's media too.



If you had any doubt about the star-power of Texas Baseball and its brand, the Longhorns are getting a lot of love so far.

Also, just confirmed that Nolan Kingham will be the starter tomorrow for Texas.

*****

Friday 4:20 p.m. update:

The Longhorns just completed their open practice session, media responsibilities, and are now signing autographs for the fans in attendance. An Omaha tradition is the longest autograph line is almost always for Texas when it is here:



Unsurprisingly, the Longhorns were loose, and having a lot of fun.

"This team knows what’s expected. They came to Texas knowing the history of it, and what’s expected out of it," Nolan Kingham said about if the team would have no issue remaining loose here in Omaha. "We’re not getting ahead of ourselves. We’re going at it one at a time, and that’s what we came here to do."

The wind was blowing in during batting practice, but Kody Clemens, Zach Zubia, and DJ Petrinsky all hit balls out of the yard.

"It's big," said Zubia, who remarked he hammered a ball to center and thought it would leave the yard.

Before the Longhorns took the field the Razorbacks had their open practice, and there's some juice in that lineup. But that's not a surprise. Dave Van Horn referred to his lineup as maybe the best he's dad, which is high praise.

Yesterday, the Longhorns practiced at a local high school to take some reps on a grass surface. During batting practice at a very small field, a few balls found some car windows.

*********

Friday 12:45 p.m. update:

Although Arkansas head coach Dave Van Horn didn't name him as the starter yet, the odds are in favor of Arkansas junior righthanded pitcher Blaine Knight (2.84 ERA over 101. innings with 92 strikeouts, 23 walks, and a .226) getting the ball for the Razorbacks against Texas on Sunday (1:00 p.m. on ESPN).

Knight, nicknamed "Big Game Blaine" for his 12-0 record and big wins in SEC play, is known for his competitiveness and ability to throw four quality pitches for strikes - fastball, curve, slider/cutter (probably his best pitch besides fastball), and change. He was selected in the third round by the Baltimore Orioles.

"He's a strike-thrower," said one scout that saw him this season. "Have to get him early; slider is good when he lands it."

Florida head coach Kevin O'Sullivan saw Knight twice this season, and was on the wrong end both times, which included Knight attacking Florida differently than its scouting report the first matchup.

"He's pretty good. I had the wrong scouting report when we played him the first time at our place. And I remember, I don't know, he might have been up to maybe close to eight punchouts after the fourth inning. I remember JJ Schwartz... [Knight] dumped a 3-2 breaking ball in there for a called strike. That's not what we told our players before the game. JJ had some choice words about the scouting report," said O'Sullivan.

"So we had to flip the switch. Obviously he pitched great. I can't remember all the guys he beat on Friday nights in our league, but he was phenomenal. He beat Brady Singer, our number one. He beat a bunch of guys on Friday night this year. And obviously we had an opportunity to see him in the SEC Tournament, and we didn't have much more luck there against him. He's very competitive. He throws both sides of the plate. Two different breaking balls. He holds runners. His stuff holds up for the whole game. He's a true Friday night guy. And I'm glad he's leaving after this year, to be honest with you.

Texas head coach discussed the challenge of potentially facing Knight in Sunday's matchup.

"Of course, we haven't faced him yet, but anybody that's 12-0 in the SEC and nonconference play, the schedule that they've played, that tells you a lot about him. But the thing is when you face a guy like Blaine, you're looking at a guy that not only has stuff but has plus command with four pitches. And so it's hard to eliminate a pitch and sit on something and look from one side of the plate because he can do so much.

"He's a tough challenge. And he really handles himself well, even in some adverse situations, where it seems like nothing really bothers him.So he'll be a tough challenge I would think if they throw him. But, yeah, he's good.

As for a Texas starter, Pierce again said it's likely to be Nolan Kingham, but he hasn't fully committed to him just yet.

"Not 100-percent, but most likely we're going with Nolan. I just want to make sure. He threw in his bullpen yesterday and felt fine. He seemed like he'd be ready to go. So, I would say 95-percent," said Pierce.

As for how he plans to use his pitching staff, and specifically the bullpen, it does sound like Texas could be more aggressive with who it uses in the first game because there is an off day Monday no matter what Sunday's result is.

"I think it's very similar to a Friday/Sunday in a regular season three-game series. If you push a guy past 35 pitches, most likely you're not using him the next day and you're going to probably use him shorter the third day. So, if we can go out and get a very good start and minimize that then you can maximize it more so on the Tuesday," said the Texas head coach. "It's very similar to a Friday/Sunday in a three-game series."

*******

Friday 10:15 a.m. update:

Greetings from Omaha, Nebraska. Over my stay, I plan to update this blog with all of our coverage, random notes and thoughts from the trip, and more. I hope you'll enjoy it.

After leaving Austin, Texas around 7:15 a.m. yesterday morning, we (InsideTexas.com's Joe Cook joined the caravan) arrived into Omaha around 9:10 p.m. last night. It wasn't always a smooth trip. My wife's car never has issues, and, sure enough, it scared me to death in Fort Worth when it didn't start at a gas station. But after 10 minutes, it turned right on, and hasn't had an issue since, thankfully. From there, the Lithium channel on XM Radio carried us to Omaha with the occasional switch to The Beatles channel when Atlantis Morissette came on.

The drive summed up: get through Dallas, all open road with a bunch of green, some cattle, not many towns, and you know you're in Nebraska when all the fields are growing corn. I wish I could say there are some cool restaurants to stop off at or towns to go through, but there weren't. However, there were hours when no one was on the road, which is nice. We did stop at the Norman, Oklahoma Whataburger, which includes a single crimson stripe among the orange and white with an OU logo.

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Weird, I know. Norman is... small. As we pulled out, a motorcycle pulled in with an outstanding mullet.

Given there are some big-name programs in Omaha, there's definitely some energy around the ballpark and in the city right now. I've already seen Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi State fans wondering around the surrounding area, which Omaha has done a good job of building up.

Alright, time to cover some press conferences and open practices. North Carolina is on the field right now. Texas will have an open practice at 1:00 p.m. and a press conference soon. Look for College World Series later today.

Thanks for reading.
 
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