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Expectation vs Reality: Are the Longhorns going to be a good basketball team in 2024?

WesMillerOB

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Apr 18, 2015
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I'm going to take you on a bit of a ride down memory lane...

When I was a sophomore in high school at Alamo Heights, I was at a time in my basketball career where the information regarding exposure and resources were still a bit ambiguous when it came to being recruited at the division one level. You had to know certain people, you had to play on certain teams, and you had to know how to play the political and bureaucratic game that was AAU basketball.

Well in the greater San Antonio area, my family and I were relatively unaware of how that game was supposed to be played. I wasn't getting the attention that I thought I deserved after averaging double digit scoring performances on the GASO circuit here in Texas, and was starting to get discouraged. We were playing in a middle of the road division in our age group, and not a lot of scouts from major Division 1 programs would attend those games.

My Dad asked me if I wanted to try and get on with the D1 Ambassadors, (who would later go on to win the Nike invitational in Las Vegas led by Connor Lammert) rather than play with the local organization I was a part of. Ultimately I elected not to because I wanted to play with my friends. Little did I know, that was probably the most detrimental decision I could have ever made regarding my high school, and future college basketball career. My dad didn't want to pressure me, and wanted me to make the decision for myself which I am eternally grateful for....God rest his soul.

I was lucky enough to be a member and starter on the 2011-2012 Alamo Heights basketball team that would eventually play at the Erwin Center in the state semi-final against McDonalds All American Keith Frazier and Dallas Kimball. Long story short we lost that game by 4, but I will never forget walking out onto that floor with the burnt orange longhorn at center court. It was a dream come true. Even though I would never play for the University of Texas, I was still able to lace 'em up and play against some of the best high school players on the planet, let alone Texas.

I went on to have a relatively decorated college career and have several opportunities to play overseas, but my body eventually failed me.

I'm sharing this story with you, because during my time in high school I was enamored with the likes of Rick Barnes, and those Texas teams. I felt like I DESERVED to be on those kind of teams...but the reality told a much different story.

Who I thought I was as a player and the reality were two totally different things.

Three head coaches later, we've officially ushered in the Rodney Terry era and as the Longhorns enter the SEC next season, how do we temper our expectations as it relates to the historical success of the men's basketball program at the University of Texas?

In other words, who do we THINK this Texas team is, and what is the reality?

This is what the data tells us is the norm....

Best teams in the Rick Barnes Era:

2001-2002 Lost in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
2002-2003 Lost in the National Semi Final of the NCAA Tournament
2003-2004 Lost in the Regional Semi Final of the NCAA Tournament
2004-2005 Lost in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
2005-2006 Lost in the Regional Final of the NCAA Tournament
2006-2007 Lost in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament
2007-2008 Lost in the Regional FInal of the NCAA Tournament
2008-2009 Lost in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament

After the 2009 season, the Longhorns have missed the tournament 3 times, and made a Regional Final only once.

Clint Eastwood Coffee GIF


That is 15 years of minimal success on the national stage. Yes the Longhorns won a couple of Big 12 championships, but the Longhorns have the resources and recruiting grounds to garner expectations of conference championship appearances and Sweet 16 appearances being the norm. This hasn't happened for a number of reasons which would require an entirely different conversation...we're here to talk about NOW.

Just how good can the Longhorns be in 2024?

On paper, really good.

They have reloaded a majority of the roster with guys that can flat out put the ball in the bucket, not to mention bringing in a crop of freshmen that will definitely make a stamp on this season. All that's missing is a little bit of front court depth. As Charlie Strong would say, the cake is baked.

You can say I'm force feeding you burnt-orange Kool-Aid, but I'm just calling it how I see it.

The only remaining question I have about this team is going to be around their identity. I think Rodney Terry was trying to figure things out as the season went a long, and that team simply did not have enough in the tank offensively to make any kind of deep tournament run. I loved Max Abmas but the way he was utilized was questionable at best, Tyrese Hunter fell of a cliff, Dylan Disu tried to do to much down the stretch, and it seemed like there was no flow to the offense. Texas should be improved at every position on the floor except the 4 as replicating Disu's production is going to be tough, but through team basketball, it can absolutely be done.

So what is this team's identity? Only time will tell.

My way-too-early expectations are that this team is going to be really good, but just like how I felt when I was a player....do my expectations mirror the reality of what this team is?

I believe that question is answered through one person and one person only, and that is Rodney Terry.

We're going to learn a lot about the future of this program and their head coach this season. Let's see how it plays out.

Way-too-early prediction: Appearance in the Sweet 16


Thanks for reading!
 
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