http://advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study
There are many of these studies out there that show the metrics that Herman uses to make the decision to go for it inside his 40 yard line, but I liked this one for its simplicity. Some of you stat guys can tackle those more statistical math studies, but for those of us who are mere math mortals this one will suffice.
This study was based on the NFL games from 2000 to 2008, so it could be adjusted for the more wide open offense today, the go-for-it metric for certain down and distances might be even a higher percentage. Plus, this is based on pro FG kickers and their FG % made is much better than the college kicker, so these numbers for going for it might be even higher.
One of the things I found interesting was the discussion at the end of the article about the reason that coaches ignore the metrics and continue to try FG's or just punt. I thought the author brought up an interesting point about bias when he said, "In addition to the natural conservatism of coaches, I believe much of the reason why coaches don't go for the conversion more often can be explained by Prospect Theory. As I outlined in my Decision Theory article, people tend to fear a loss more than they value an equivalent gain. This is a built-in tendency toward risk aversion means that coaches would be biased toward kicks rather than conversion attempts."
Anyway, considering so many on here share this bias and disagree with Herman's penchant for going for when he is inside his 40, I thought it would be good to see some of these metrics (or "binder" that he constantly refers to) and discuss our positions.
Hook'em
There are many of these studies out there that show the metrics that Herman uses to make the decision to go for it inside his 40 yard line, but I liked this one for its simplicity. Some of you stat guys can tackle those more statistical math studies, but for those of us who are mere math mortals this one will suffice.
This study was based on the NFL games from 2000 to 2008, so it could be adjusted for the more wide open offense today, the go-for-it metric for certain down and distances might be even a higher percentage. Plus, this is based on pro FG kickers and their FG % made is much better than the college kicker, so these numbers for going for it might be even higher.
One of the things I found interesting was the discussion at the end of the article about the reason that coaches ignore the metrics and continue to try FG's or just punt. I thought the author brought up an interesting point about bias when he said, "In addition to the natural conservatism of coaches, I believe much of the reason why coaches don't go for the conversion more often can be explained by Prospect Theory. As I outlined in my Decision Theory article, people tend to fear a loss more than they value an equivalent gain. This is a built-in tendency toward risk aversion means that coaches would be biased toward kicks rather than conversion attempts."
Anyway, considering so many on here share this bias and disagree with Herman's penchant for going for when he is inside his 40, I thought it would be good to see some of these metrics (or "binder" that he constantly refers to) and discuss our positions.
Hook'em
